Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Who is paying for my Sister to go fly to Dublin
My sister has just ‘bought’ a return ticket Bournemouth – Dublin return for £0.00. My Ma and Pa have just about covered the whole RYR network out of BMTH over the last 18 months, never paying more than £20 return.
They know how to avoid the online ticketing traps and are not seduced by the charm of Scratch cards
So the question is who is paying for them to travel ?
It can’t be such a long term loss leader because;
They would not travel if cost was > £25.00 or the cost of lunch.
Every week RYR are making similar offers.
What ever you think of MOL he is not prone to acts of spontaneous generousity.
The only people prone to stupid uneconomic actions that I can think of are the Public Sector. Is it the case that MOL has convinced them to pay him to deliver punters to there cities (or vaguely near them). ?
If this is the ‘business model’ for RYR, Is there not a real danger that it will eventual dawn on the nice burghers of provincial euro land that free ticket punters are not big spenders and pull the subsides.
If this happens will suddenly look very sick.
And unless MOL has a very good plan B there will be one almighty crisis not just in Wannabee land but also in whole industry.
What does our resident omnipotent Economist think ?
They know how to avoid the online ticketing traps and are not seduced by the charm of Scratch cards
So the question is who is paying for them to travel ?
It can’t be such a long term loss leader because;
They would not travel if cost was > £25.00 or the cost of lunch.
Every week RYR are making similar offers.
What ever you think of MOL he is not prone to acts of spontaneous generousity.
The only people prone to stupid uneconomic actions that I can think of are the Public Sector. Is it the case that MOL has convinced them to pay him to deliver punters to there cities (or vaguely near them). ?
If this is the ‘business model’ for RYR, Is there not a real danger that it will eventual dawn on the nice burghers of provincial euro land that free ticket punters are not big spenders and pull the subsides.
If this happens will suddenly look very sick.
And unless MOL has a very good plan B there will be one almighty crisis not just in Wannabee land but also in whole industry.What does our resident omnipotent Economist think ?
I think that nobody actually knows what will happen to airline ticket sales in a major recession as the shape of the business is so very different from 1990.
Will hard pressed punters flock to low cost tickets. Or value maximizing all inclusive tour holidays. Will they downsize to European short breaks or cut out expensive City Breaks to preserve the main summer holiday. Will business travellers.. blah blah blah.
Nobody knows. Certainly not me.
WWW
Will hard pressed punters flock to low cost tickets. Or value maximizing all inclusive tour holidays. Will they downsize to European short breaks or cut out expensive City Breaks to preserve the main summer holiday. Will business travellers.. blah blah blah.
Nobody knows. Certainly not me.
WWW
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My thoughts are that, if RYR are relying on Govt subsidies, then it is a very dangerous and fickle place to be.
I assume that is the case, or why is RYR paying for sister to travel ? (it would be cheaper to leave her at home).
I can understand that travellers will move down a brand, but suspect a lot more will fall off the bottom and not bother travelling at all.
Even if RYR is the lowest cost carrier in the business, if the volume drops, and subsides dry up, you can lose a lot of money very quickly
I assume that is the case, or why is RYR paying for sister to travel ? (it would be cheaper to leave her at home).
I can understand that travellers will move down a brand, but suspect a lot more will fall off the bottom and not bother travelling at all.
Even if RYR is the lowest cost carrier in the business, if the volume drops, and subsides dry up, you can lose a lot of money very quickly
Craig1975, it's all well and good posting your 'facts' of how well the UK economy is set to ride the storm. Personally, I absolutely agree with everything that WWW has posted thus far, having also seen the previous recession here in the UK and looking at the big picture. Again, he only posts how he sees it. He never claims to be an expert on economies. You only have to wake up and smell the (imported at great cost) coffee to see things are getting worse. Take RYR for example. Laying off 600 now. http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthread.php?t=331187
Hmmm.
This is a rumour network after all.
Lets see how the next 6-12 months works out shall we. If I had to put money on which way the economy was gonna go, I know which way i'd bet. Pity I haven't got any money to bet with as I have just 'panic bought' fuel for two cars and been for my weekly supermarket shop! £250+!!!!!!!!!!
Hmmm.
This is a rumour network after all.
Lets see how the next 6-12 months works out shall we. If I had to put money on which way the economy was gonna go, I know which way i'd bet. Pity I haven't got any money to bet with as I have just 'panic bought' fuel for two cars and been for my weekly supermarket shop! £250+!!!!!!!!!!
Last edited by helimutt; 14th Jun 2008 at 18:54.
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A new hope
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle4133668.ece
Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol
Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide 'renewable petroleum'
“Ten years ago I could never have imagined I’d be doing this,” says Greg Pal, 33, a former software executive, as he squints into the late afternoon Californian sun. “I mean, this is essentially agriculture, right? But the people I talk to – especially the ones coming out of business school – this is the one hot area everyone wants to get into.”
He means bugs. To be more precise: the genetic alteration of bugs – very, very small ones – so that when they feed on agricultural waste such as woodchips or wheat straw, they do something extraordinary. They excrete crude oil.
Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide 'renewable petroleum'
“Ten years ago I could never have imagined I’d be doing this,” says Greg Pal, 33, a former software executive, as he squints into the late afternoon Californian sun. “I mean, this is essentially agriculture, right? But the people I talk to – especially the ones coming out of business school – this is the one hot area everyone wants to get into.”
He means bugs. To be more precise: the genetic alteration of bugs – very, very small ones – so that when they feed on agricultural waste such as woodchips or wheat straw, they do something extraordinary. They excrete crude oil.
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WWW is right
Hi,
Just popped in to catch up on the news and saw this thread. Airlines are seeing momentum bookings but once next winter comes around and there is less momentum in the market as a whole pax numbers will dwindle. Ryanair are the least prepared ( Micko for all his pomp and ceremony didnt hedge and the big guns did .. he is too mean for his own good ). Inflation is becoming a worry and soon interest rates rise thus dampening spending further. I started down the route of a career change 18 months ago and decided it was a very bad time to continue last September , so glad I did , I would not like to have a variable interest rate loan hanging over me right no with carriers set to cut back ( Already seen in the US , only a matter of time before it arrives to the EU. ) All the marketing folk in flight schools are probably in overdrive telling you its " ok dont worry " and why would they not .. their own jobs are on the line..
When you start to see the share price for airlines begin to trend upwards is the time to start and not before. Bottoming is not the same as trending up.
Just popped in to catch up on the news and saw this thread. Airlines are seeing momentum bookings but once next winter comes around and there is less momentum in the market as a whole pax numbers will dwindle. Ryanair are the least prepared ( Micko for all his pomp and ceremony didnt hedge and the big guns did .. he is too mean for his own good ). Inflation is becoming a worry and soon interest rates rise thus dampening spending further. I started down the route of a career change 18 months ago and decided it was a very bad time to continue last September , so glad I did , I would not like to have a variable interest rate loan hanging over me right no with carriers set to cut back ( Already seen in the US , only a matter of time before it arrives to the EU. ) All the marketing folk in flight schools are probably in overdrive telling you its " ok dont worry " and why would they not .. their own jobs are on the line..
When you start to see the share price for airlines begin to trend upwards is the time to start and not before. Bottoming is not the same as trending up.
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When you start to see the share price for airlines begin to trend upwards is the time to start and not before. Bottoming is not the same as trending up.
People are just not investing into the airline business anymore because they know that it's not profitable and very risky. There are way better investment opportunities in other sectors.
Ryanair are better prepared than one could imagine. If MOL got FR as far as he did, it is not by luck.
If you warn people and tell them not to start today, you must be certain that the actual crisis will last until 2013.
I can see WWW in 2011 saying: "There's a huge pilot shortage now, everyone start training immediately or the airline industry won't keep up with growth (firing press articles on ever rising airline ticket prices due to excessive demand), OA* has still some seats for March, though C*C is already fully booked till August!!". And at the end of each post: "I'm right you're wrong".
You must always look ahead of 3 to 5 years dear doom & gloomers. Can you afford to let people wait 3 to 5 years until skies clear up and see them graduating when we're at the beginning of the next recession?
The economy is like a shot in tennis. You bring your racket back and prepare to hit before or while the ball bounces towards you, not when it's already bounced to the highest point, because then it'll be too late.
But ok, I'm with you guys.
A desastrous pilot shortage resulting from your posts could actually be good as it will push airlines to pay pilots' TR's again.
Flight schools will always keep saying that it'll be the best time to start because it's their business and prospective students would rather believe a person that tells it to them face-to-face rather than a person of whom they might never get to see the face (like that of the retarded guy that's keeping peeping up on this thread saying that he knows everything just because he's sitting in a left hand seat of an A319
). It's just like that and it takes more than a few posts on a website to make people change their minds.Edit: A little correction: It's Airbus SAS that's valued at below 0, not EADS.
Last edited by nich-av; 15th Jun 2008 at 18:50.
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WWW will love this one.
Atlas Polar Air Cargo have just announced over 50 engineering redundancies at their Prestwick Hangar.
Don't know if this is due to reduced capacity or government grants running out and relocating their engineering to a new subsidised site elsewhere.
Atlas Polar Air Cargo have just announced over 50 engineering redundancies at their Prestwick Hangar.
Don't know if this is due to reduced capacity or government grants running out and relocating their engineering to a new subsidised site elsewhere.
Came across this earlier today. Kind of illustrates the problem we now face. This level of debt cannot all be repaid and the effort to do so will cause a deep recession.
Debt in a credit crunch = disaster.
WWW
Debt in a credit crunch = disaster.
WWW
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Saudi Arabia to 'increase oil production'
The Saudis are reportedly concerned record prices might dampen economic growth and lead to lower oil demand. (Getty Images: Guang Niu, File photo)
Concerned that skyrocketing oil prices might induce a worldwide economic slump, Saudi Arabia is planning to increase oil production next month by about 500,000 barrels a day, The New York Times reported on its website.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...14/2274786.htm
Repeatedly Saudi Arabia alone can increase production with 2 million barrels a day if necessarie.
Another easy post to illustrate that this is, just like in the past, just another downswing in which this industry is very senstive into.
The Saudis are reportedly concerned record prices might dampen economic growth and lead to lower oil demand. (Getty Images: Guang Niu, File photo)
Concerned that skyrocketing oil prices might induce a worldwide economic slump, Saudi Arabia is planning to increase oil production next month by about 500,000 barrels a day, The New York Times reported on its website.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...14/2274786.htm
Repeatedly Saudi Arabia alone can increase production with 2 million barrels a day if necessarie.
Another easy post to illustrate that this is, just like in the past, just another downswing in which this industry is very senstive into.
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SAB, I think the figures you report are incorrect. Saudi Arabia has suggested it may increase production by up to 200,000 bls a day, not 500k. The industry and the markets do not believe that they can do more - many doubt they can make good on the promise of 200k. However, in a market where rumour, sentiment, fear and greed are far more influential than fact and fundamentals, any little extra production will help - even if it's not needed!
As heli_port links to above, efforts to source alternatives to oil are now becoming serious and effective, and are starting to promise real results. Eventually, the reality that there will be life post-oil will calm the energy markets - though I suspect that, even without this factor, the oil price bubble will burst sooner or later.
The CBI this morning forecast UK growth to stall at around 1.3% in 2008/09, with inflation at or above 3% for the next four quarters, and unemployment increasing to 1.8m (about 8% up on the current figure). They don't anticipate recession in the UK economy, though to the average family it will certainly feel like one! More importantly to us, the airline industry will certainly be in recession for the next two years or so. Capacity will be taken out of the market, which means existing jobs will be lost and new hires will be few and far between. Some of the airlines you hope to work for will not be here in 2 years' time.
Sit this one out, as I've said before.
Scroggs
As heli_port links to above, efforts to source alternatives to oil are now becoming serious and effective, and are starting to promise real results. Eventually, the reality that there will be life post-oil will calm the energy markets - though I suspect that, even without this factor, the oil price bubble will burst sooner or later.
The CBI this morning forecast UK growth to stall at around 1.3% in 2008/09, with inflation at or above 3% for the next four quarters, and unemployment increasing to 1.8m (about 8% up on the current figure). They don't anticipate recession in the UK economy, though to the average family it will certainly feel like one! More importantly to us, the airline industry will certainly be in recession for the next two years or so. Capacity will be taken out of the market, which means existing jobs will be lost and new hires will be few and far between. Some of the airlines you hope to work for will not be here in 2 years' time.
Sit this one out, as I've said before.
Scroggs
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Scroggs, if you read on ABC or CNN you will notice that Saudi Arabia has already increased pr june 2008 their oil supply by 300 bls per day and are considering to upper that further with 200 bls per day, so all in all 500 as I mentioned in my previous state. Therefore the figures are correct. This was earlier yesterday stated by the oil minister of Saudi Arabi too.
That in mention, I have the same opinion as you considering the recession and the economic outlook in nearby future.
My point it simple, none of us can see the lenght of the crisis like the IT-bubble 8 years ago. If we could, we would make a ton of money in todays world...
Good luck
That in mention, I have the same opinion as you considering the recession and the economic outlook in nearby future.
My point it simple, none of us can see the lenght of the crisis like the IT-bubble 8 years ago. If we could, we would make a ton of money in todays world...
Good luck
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FT.com - Airline capacity
Published: June 15 2008 19:19 | Last updated: June 16 2008 09:56
Some of the planes in US-based Northwest Airlines venerable fleet of DC-9s were rolling off the production line when Lyndon Johnson was still in the White House. The need to replace ageing aircraft with more efficient jets is one reason behind the boom in orders placed with manufacturers Boeing and Airbus. However, the oil price has now gone past the point at which it is a helpful stimulant into a terrific dead weight.
The US airlines, on the whole, have yet to order new aircraft, but since the end of May the budget carriers JetBlue and AirTran have deferred delivery of 39 single-aisle planes out to the middle of the next decade. On Friday US Airlines joined the list of troubled carriers cutting jobs and unprofitable routes.
The shrinking American market points to trouble ahead for the rest of the industry. Global passenger growth in the first quarter of 4 per cent, year on year, was a deceleration from 8 per cent at the end of last year. Business travel globally turned down in March. There is a widening gap between growth in passenger numbers and capacity in the years ahead. For the past four years air traffic growth has averaged 9 per cent annually – the fastest sustained period of expansion since the 1970s. If global gross domestic product growth falls to 3-4 per cent this year, Credit Suisse estimates that passenger growth will be just 2-3 per cent.
On present delivery forecasts the number of seats on narrow-body jets – the single aisle planes used mainly for short-haul flights where competition is brutal – is set to grow by 6 per cent this year, and at a similar level out to 2012. But at current oil prices the airline industry faces an increase in its annual fuel bill – already $136bn last year – equivalent to a fifth of its $500bn annual revenues. Something has to give.
Published: June 15 2008 19:19 | Last updated: June 16 2008 09:56
Some of the planes in US-based Northwest Airlines venerable fleet of DC-9s were rolling off the production line when Lyndon Johnson was still in the White House. The need to replace ageing aircraft with more efficient jets is one reason behind the boom in orders placed with manufacturers Boeing and Airbus. However, the oil price has now gone past the point at which it is a helpful stimulant into a terrific dead weight.
The US airlines, on the whole, have yet to order new aircraft, but since the end of May the budget carriers JetBlue and AirTran have deferred delivery of 39 single-aisle planes out to the middle of the next decade. On Friday US Airlines joined the list of troubled carriers cutting jobs and unprofitable routes.
The shrinking American market points to trouble ahead for the rest of the industry. Global passenger growth in the first quarter of 4 per cent, year on year, was a deceleration from 8 per cent at the end of last year. Business travel globally turned down in March. There is a widening gap between growth in passenger numbers and capacity in the years ahead. For the past four years air traffic growth has averaged 9 per cent annually – the fastest sustained period of expansion since the 1970s. If global gross domestic product growth falls to 3-4 per cent this year, Credit Suisse estimates that passenger growth will be just 2-3 per cent.
On present delivery forecasts the number of seats on narrow-body jets – the single aisle planes used mainly for short-haul flights where competition is brutal – is set to grow by 6 per cent this year, and at a similar level out to 2012. But at current oil prices the airline industry faces an increase in its annual fuel bill – already $136bn last year – equivalent to a fifth of its $500bn annual revenues. Something has to give.
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Oil at record near $140 a barrel
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7457157.stm
Honda makes first hydrogen cars
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7456141.stm
The future looks bright! Sadly a friend of mine has had enough of all this and decided to leave the dream of becoming a pilot and go back to uni to become a GP 
This is a career changing event and i won't lie when i say the thought has crossed my mind too
The price of crude oil has hit a new high of close to $140 a barrel in New York trade, despite Saudi Arabia agreeing to increase output in July.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7456141.stm
Japanese car manufacturer Honda has begun the first commercial production of a zero-emission, hydrogen fuel-cell powered vehicle.
This is a career changing event and i won't lie when i say the thought has crossed my mind too
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Lucy - Maybe/Maybe not
i was one of the lucky last to get in..
I was only thinking this morning that some of those who were just about to jump into training and have not yet committed at least have the benefit of being able to decide not to forge ahead under the current climate. It's the ones that are bang in the middle or just coming out of the4 sausage machine that are perhaps the unlucky ones !! Time will tell !!
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Cpi 3.3% Rpi 4.3%
Even less money for holidays and travel.
OK officially we are not in a recession, but if fuel costs more, food costs more, and mortgages cost more, it certainly feels like a recession.
OK officially we are not in a recession, but if fuel costs more, food costs more, and mortgages cost more, it certainly feels like a recession.
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Adversity breeds innovation!
Have a look at what the Yanks are doing with their B1-B programme, flying it on a cut of 50% standard Jet A1 and 50% GTL fuel substitute. The cut could become known as Jet A8. Oddly enough, the efficiency of the engine increased and the consumption decreased.
Airbus have also flown a 380 from the UK to Toulouse using the same cut fuel and doing high altitude cavitation trials and low temperature trials, all of which turned out to be successful!
Coming to an airport near you soon!!!
Give it a couple of years at these prices and the quest for an alternate fuel will have ramped so far up that we can give the middle east their sand pit back.
Have a look at what the Yanks are doing with their B1-B programme, flying it on a cut of 50% standard Jet A1 and 50% GTL fuel substitute. The cut could become known as Jet A8. Oddly enough, the efficiency of the engine increased and the consumption decreased.
Airbus have also flown a 380 from the UK to Toulouse using the same cut fuel and doing high altitude cavitation trials and low temperature trials, all of which turned out to be successful!
Coming to an airport near you soon!!!
Give it a couple of years at these prices and the quest for an alternate fuel will have ramped so far up that we can give the middle east their sand pit back.