Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Take what OAT or Jerez or any other FTO for that matter say with a grain of salt. In fact I would say as much to take their advice and ignore it for the marketing spin and hype it is.
When I started looking at getting into this game back around 99/2000 I remember heading off to the Flyer shows and calling up the big schools leafing through glossy brochures etc. I discovered pprune around the same time. The message coming out was I had to go integrated plain and simple. All the jobs were going to the integrated guys (according to the FTO's). BAE as it was then known wouldn't even consider giving me a place if I wanted to go there as a mod student. Oxford were the same.
A short time later 9/11 happened. Emirates, BA, BMI and Aer Lingus to name a few pulled the plug on cadetships and the steady stream of cash into Oxfords and BAE's coffers dried up. Guess what? Yep realising they no longer had any customers MODULAR suddenly became the flavour of the month. New "products" were created with great sounding names. At the end of the day it was still a modular course, just severely overpriced for what you could get elsewhere and you were competing with just as many people for a few jobs.
Anyway this is risking thread creep but hopefully lets put to bed what Saccade posted.
When I started looking at getting into this game back around 99/2000 I remember heading off to the Flyer shows and calling up the big schools leafing through glossy brochures etc. I discovered pprune around the same time. The message coming out was I had to go integrated plain and simple. All the jobs were going to the integrated guys (according to the FTO's). BAE as it was then known wouldn't even consider giving me a place if I wanted to go there as a mod student. Oxford were the same.
A short time later 9/11 happened. Emirates, BA, BMI and Aer Lingus to name a few pulled the plug on cadetships and the steady stream of cash into Oxfords and BAE's coffers dried up. Guess what? Yep realising they no longer had any customers MODULAR suddenly became the flavour of the month. New "products" were created with great sounding names. At the end of the day it was still a modular course, just severely overpriced for what you could get elsewhere and you were competing with just as many people for a few jobs.
Anyway this is risking thread creep but hopefully lets put to bed what Saccade posted.
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I love this bit:
Well, no, it is not impressive. The share price is in the doldrums as there is nigh on no growth in the business, and the return on capital is poor. While they may have a 10% op margin, nobody expects that to be maintained and the only reasonable growth prospects are through OpenSkies.
When BA announces it is to park aircraft, I would be more worried than if Ryanair were to do so. Not only do Ryanair carry little cargo, they do not fly longhaul. For a longhaul carrier with significant cargo carriage to consider parking aircraft, it is a big deal.
18 months not a long time? I beg to differ. We have already seen almost a year of the banking crisis, and only now is the real economy suffering. The last thing you want to do is graduate into a dead market in December 2009.
What we can say is that BA is a very strong business and far better placed than are most to weather temporary financial issues. It's current profits - despite oil prices and other factors - are actually pretty impressive.
When BA announces it is to park aircraft, I would be more worried than if Ryanair were to do so. Not only do Ryanair carry little cargo, they do not fly longhaul. For a longhaul carrier with significant cargo carriage to consider parking aircraft, it is a big deal.
18 months not a long time? I beg to differ. We have already seen almost a year of the banking crisis, and only now is the real economy suffering. The last thing you want to do is graduate into a dead market in December 2009.
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18 months not a long time? I beg to differ. We have already seen almost a year of the banking crisis, and only now is the real economy suffering. The last thing you want to do is graduate into a dead market in December 2009.
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What Airlines are going bust at the moment or look like they are about to....just out of curiosity???? Perhaps BA will make a loss this year and as someone correctly pointed out, the majority of T5's costs will actually fall into this year. But the industry always bounces back. I'm not so sure the future is as bleak as many of you like to bleat on about. Im not blind to the issues that the whole economy currently has, but aviation and tourism as a whole is worth far too much money to let it go down the plug hole. There maybe a blip for the next year or so but sooner or later it will pick up just as it always has.
BA are definitely looking to start something up again aparantly. My brother works for BA and was told by a couple of Captains. As I said earlier, things change so I am always sceptical about any form of sponsored training. I very much suspect it would only be Type Rating or MCC sponsorship if anything does happen but it goes to show that things arent all doom and gloom.
Oh and one final thing.....if there are so many pilots around then why have Emirates just reduced their minimum TT requirements? Why have BMI recently been advertising for FO's with 100 hrs PIC? Why do Aer Araan continue to recruit 300 hour pilots? Why are Easy Jet still offering their sponsorship? Why is Ryanair still taking on pilots hand over fist?
Cheer up guys!
BA are definitely looking to start something up again aparantly. My brother works for BA and was told by a couple of Captains. As I said earlier, things change so I am always sceptical about any form of sponsored training. I very much suspect it would only be Type Rating or MCC sponsorship if anything does happen but it goes to show that things arent all doom and gloom.
Oh and one final thing.....if there are so many pilots around then why have Emirates just reduced their minimum TT requirements? Why have BMI recently been advertising for FO's with 100 hrs PIC? Why do Aer Araan continue to recruit 300 hour pilots? Why are Easy Jet still offering their sponsorship? Why is Ryanair still taking on pilots hand over fist?
Cheer up guys!
Thats right Chris. Everything is fine and I shall stop my bleating.
I could understand back in Sept07 and in the New Year and even a few months ago when people here argued that there would be no crisis and that I was a partisan part time economist with an agenda. I struggle to understand now how anyone cannot see that the crisis I warned about is actually here, right now.
If you don't think this is a crisis. If you don't think front page headlines, airline CEO's statements, shareprices and the evidence of your own eyes as aircraft get sent to the desert and bankrupcies get filed then, frankly, you are beyond help or guidance.
You are witnessing a full speed US/UK house price crash (>10% 12 month falls) and a technical Recession coupled with an Oil Crisis.
If you are a UK Wannabe airline pilot then this is a TOTAL DISASTER. Perhaps you will only discover this when you actually start job hunting yourself.
WWW
I could understand back in Sept07 and in the New Year and even a few months ago when people here argued that there would be no crisis and that I was a partisan part time economist with an agenda. I struggle to understand now how anyone cannot see that the crisis I warned about is actually here, right now.
If you don't think this is a crisis. If you don't think front page headlines, airline CEO's statements, shareprices and the evidence of your own eyes as aircraft get sent to the desert and bankrupcies get filed then, frankly, you are beyond help or guidance.
You are witnessing a full speed US/UK house price crash (>10% 12 month falls) and a technical Recession coupled with an Oil Crisis.
If you are a UK Wannabe airline pilot then this is a TOTAL DISASTER. Perhaps you will only discover this when you actually start job hunting yourself.
WWW
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10% house price drop, good one.
I recently looked at a new house costing Ł217,000. To cut a long story short i managed to get them down to Ł180,000, they pay the tax and duty, they pay my 5% deposit, they carpet it with white goods also, and finally they offered to pay us Ł350 per month for 2 years to help with the mortgage.
See you in 6 months i said. 10%, Who are you trying to kid.
I recently looked at a new house costing Ł217,000. To cut a long story short i managed to get them down to Ł180,000, they pay the tax and duty, they pay my 5% deposit, they carpet it with white goods also, and finally they offered to pay us Ł350 per month for 2 years to help with the mortgage.
See you in 6 months i said. 10%, Who are you trying to kid.
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Chris: I wish things were quite as good as you say. But your post sounds a bit like a glossy FTO brochure, where everything is just fine and dandy. Or the speil they give you at an open day
.
The best BA will come up with will probably be a SSTR, probably with a bond attatched to it. No doubt it will be highly overpriced. I can't understand why they would do this though, as there surely must be a lot of OAA graduates in order to fill the spaces - almost all of them keen to work for the 'gold standard' of all airlines.
Ryanair do take on FOs, but, I've heard that there are some FR FOs that do not fly that many hours, as they are overcrewed. But keep pumping through new recruits into the holding pool as it is a good money maker. And encouraging applications along with a Ł50 fee, in itself has to be a nice little earner.
According to BMI, 'immediate needs for the coming year have been met', . A similar story with easyJet too - and you still have to provide a lot of money for the course when they do, not true sponsorship - when they do take on more people, early next year. Then there is the easyJet holding pool.
But we hope!
. The best BA will come up with will probably be a SSTR, probably with a bond attatched to it. No doubt it will be highly overpriced. I can't understand why they would do this though, as there surely must be a lot of OAA graduates in order to fill the spaces - almost all of them keen to work for the 'gold standard' of all airlines.
Ryanair do take on FOs, but, I've heard that there are some FR FOs that do not fly that many hours, as they are overcrewed. But keep pumping through new recruits into the holding pool as it is a good money maker. And encouraging applications along with a Ł50 fee, in itself has to be a nice little earner.
According to BMI, 'immediate needs for the coming year have been met', . A similar story with easyJet too - and you still have to provide a lot of money for the course when they do, not true sponsorship - when they do take on more people, early next year. Then there is the easyJet holding pool.
But we hope!
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3989923.ece
Silverjet fights for survival in cash crisis talks
Silverjet, the start-up business class airline, was today fighting for survival after admitting it is in crisis talks to secure funding after it was unable to draw down a bail-out loan arranged just three weeks ago.
The company suspended its shares this morning after revealing that its..
MaxJet, Eos, EuroManx, Oasis gone now SilverJet trailing smoke - all basing business on UK air transport ticket sales. Winter groundings for BA and Ryanair and this is the START of the lucrative summer season. Autumn will be carnage at this rate.
Protect yourselves.
WWW
Silverjet fights for survival in cash crisis talks
Silverjet, the start-up business class airline, was today fighting for survival after admitting it is in crisis talks to secure funding after it was unable to draw down a bail-out loan arranged just three weeks ago.
The company suspended its shares this morning after revealing that its..
MaxJet, Eos, EuroManx, Oasis gone now SilverJet trailing smoke - all basing business on UK air transport ticket sales. Winter groundings for BA and Ryanair and this is the START of the lucrative summer season. Autumn will be carnage at this rate.
Protect yourselves.
WWW
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And yet in the Terms and Endearment forum someone is saying that Easy crews may be farmed out to Etihad so who do we believe.
Also there is a whole bunch of US airlines in Chapter 11 at the moment. Could be quite a few of our US cousins hitting European shores in the not to distant future with many many thousands of hours under their belts in search of greener grass.
Also there is a whole bunch of US airlines in Chapter 11 at the moment. Could be quite a few of our US cousins hitting European shores in the not to distant future with many many thousands of hours under their belts in search of greener grass.
WWW, I am wholeheartedly behind what you say. As someone who self sponsored albeit it in the rotary world, after spending Ł110K I had no guarantee of a job and was lucky enough to secure one a couple of years ago.
If I thought about everything I had to put myself through to get here, would I do it starting right now? Absolutely no way in hell would I.!!!
I just wish people would open their eyes a bit more. All that glistens etc etc
Don't believe the hype. Wait some time. If you have the money in the bank then great, leave it there a bit longer. You could actually use the fall in house prices to invest when they hit rock bottom.
I missed out on a few opportunities during the early/mid nineties which see my friends as virtually millionaires now at my age. Just wish I'd stuck with them but no, I thought I knew best.
If you're in your early/mid twenties believe me there is no rush. Let the dust settle before committing. Believe me, it'll get worse before it'll get better. Why does no-one believe me when I say this?
Just go buy any financial supplement and see who is doing well, which firms are making money, what is expected to happen over the next few months.
Taking bets on major recession! Might be a short one (we live in hope).
If I thought about everything I had to put myself through to get here, would I do it starting right now? Absolutely no way in hell would I.!!!
I just wish people would open their eyes a bit more. All that glistens etc etc
Don't believe the hype. Wait some time. If you have the money in the bank then great, leave it there a bit longer. You could actually use the fall in house prices to invest when they hit rock bottom.
I missed out on a few opportunities during the early/mid nineties which see my friends as virtually millionaires now at my age. Just wish I'd stuck with them but no, I thought I knew best.
If you're in your early/mid twenties believe me there is no rush. Let the dust settle before committing. Believe me, it'll get worse before it'll get better. Why does no-one believe me when I say this?
Just go buy any financial supplement and see who is doing well, which firms are making money, what is expected to happen over the next few months.
Taking bets on major recession! Might be a short one (we live in hope).
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Why does no-one believe me when I say this?
I feel the priority at the moment is to strengthen the dollar, see what we can do about oil supply and somehow bring down the interbank libor so we can get to a more 'liquid' position.
Anyhow back to reading my atpl manuals..
Last edited by heli_port; 25th May 2008 at 11:40.
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Trichet: Beware the oil shock
Interesting reading:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...oil_shock.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereport...oil_shock.html
What if the Bank of England were not to bear down on inflation in the face of the upward pressure from rising global energy and food prices?
What if it were to respond to popular, corporate and political calls for cuts in interest rates, to give some oomph to an economy slowed down by the credit crunch?
In a worldwide trawl of bankers and economists - which I made in preparing a documentary to be broadcast at 8pm tonight on Radio 4 ("Power Failure at the Central Bank") - a compelling case for not cutting interest rates came from across the Channel, from the veteran public official who is arguably the most respected central banker in the world right now, Jean-Claude Trichet.
What he said, with passion and conviction, is that the price of failing to set interest rates at a level that keeps inflation in check would be the rise of mass unemployment that would hurt us for at least a generation.
Or to be more precise, he argued that the current rise in energy and food prices is comparable to the oil-price shock of the early 1970s. And he insisted that the failure of most European economies back then to suffer the short term pain of tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates, led to inflationary wage settlements that undermined economic competitiveness.
"Before 1973 and 1974, there was everywhere in Europe full employment," he told me. "It is after the absence of sufficient lucidity in analysing what was happening after the first oil shock, trying to protect ourselves from the first oil shock and not understanding that we had a real transfer of resources associated with the first oil shock, all that created mass unemployment.
"And we are still fighting against unemployment which is at a level that is not satisfactory in the euro area and which is the legacy of these mistakes in the first oil shock."
Or to put it another way: cut rates and risk long-term, serious damage to all our prosperity.
The commodity-price surge has pushed the rate of consumer price inflation in the eurozone well above the formal target of less-than-but-close-to 2%. But high inflation "will not last forever", he said, adding ominously that "we are there to care for it going down."
He argues that even if the sharp rises in energy and food prices represent a one-off realignment, they can't be seen as somehow irrelevant to an assessment of the core rate of inflation, or as immaterial to where interest rates should be set.
What Trichet fears is what he calls "second-round effects", such as wages being set at levels that assume inflation will not fall - which could precipitate endemic inflation, a debilitating virus that would be hard to shake off.
Chatting to Trichet was in some ways strikingly similar to listening to Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, as he warned last week (yet again) that his fabled NICE era of non-inflationary consistent expansion is well and truly over. As it happens, Trichet has a strong empathetic relationship with the Bank. He said:
"I feel very close myself to the Bank of England. I feel that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England and the Governing Council of the ECB have very much equivalent analysis on this major point... that we had to have a monetary policy stance which would be designed to deliver price stability."
Or to put it another way: there's not the faintest chance of interest rates falling in the eurozone or the UK for some time (if at all).
The other very striking point made by Trichet is that he rejects any suggestion that the ECB should have an explicit goal of (in his words) "ensuring stability in the price of assets". He said: "it doesn't seem to me possible."
He added: "We will do all we can to delivery price stability and ensure financial stability through the delivery of price stability. But we cannot directly target asset prices. That would probably be something which is impossible, I would say, and not advisable at all."
This matters, because one of the causes of the credit crunch was the rapid and unsustainable rise in asset prices, especially property prices, in the preceding two or three years.
During those bubble years, Trichet was at the forefront of central bankers warning about the dangers of all those trillions of dollars being lent and invested without due regard to the proper risks. He spotted that asset prices were inflating too fast.
But his sounding of the alarm did nothing to stop the bubble expanding to near lethal proportions - such that when it popped, the cost for the financial system and the global economy was very substantial.
Perhaps sensibly Ben Bernanke - chairman of the US Federal Reserve - is reviewing (against his own revealed instincts) whether his central bank should intervene more conspicuously when asset prices surge.
M.Trichet implies Mr Bernanke is wasting his time.
Probably better, as many central bankers and regulators now believe, would be to look at whether new rules can be introduced that would raise and lower the capital requirements of relevant financial institutions in a counter-cyclical way - such that their capacity to lend too much too cheaply was constrained in boom years (with the corset being loosened in downturns).
So are we, at the least, over the worst of the credit crunch? The Bank of England recently said there were signs that financial markets are past their nadir.
What is the prognostication of the wily M Trichet, who has had a ringside seat at every international financial crisis since the mid-1980s? Well I pressed him and pressed him, and he pointedly refused to say that the point of maximum danger is behind us.
All he would say is that we are experiencing an "ongoing, very significant market correction."
Which, given his record of calling the credit crunch rather more astutely than the Fed or the Bank of England, isn't conspicuously reassuring.
What if it were to respond to popular, corporate and political calls for cuts in interest rates, to give some oomph to an economy slowed down by the credit crunch?
In a worldwide trawl of bankers and economists - which I made in preparing a documentary to be broadcast at 8pm tonight on Radio 4 ("Power Failure at the Central Bank") - a compelling case for not cutting interest rates came from across the Channel, from the veteran public official who is arguably the most respected central banker in the world right now, Jean-Claude Trichet.
What he said, with passion and conviction, is that the price of failing to set interest rates at a level that keeps inflation in check would be the rise of mass unemployment that would hurt us for at least a generation.
Or to be more precise, he argued that the current rise in energy and food prices is comparable to the oil-price shock of the early 1970s. And he insisted that the failure of most European economies back then to suffer the short term pain of tighter monetary policy, higher interest rates, led to inflationary wage settlements that undermined economic competitiveness.
"Before 1973 and 1974, there was everywhere in Europe full employment," he told me. "It is after the absence of sufficient lucidity in analysing what was happening after the first oil shock, trying to protect ourselves from the first oil shock and not understanding that we had a real transfer of resources associated with the first oil shock, all that created mass unemployment.
"And we are still fighting against unemployment which is at a level that is not satisfactory in the euro area and which is the legacy of these mistakes in the first oil shock."
Or to put it another way: cut rates and risk long-term, serious damage to all our prosperity.
The commodity-price surge has pushed the rate of consumer price inflation in the eurozone well above the formal target of less-than-but-close-to 2%. But high inflation "will not last forever", he said, adding ominously that "we are there to care for it going down."
He argues that even if the sharp rises in energy and food prices represent a one-off realignment, they can't be seen as somehow irrelevant to an assessment of the core rate of inflation, or as immaterial to where interest rates should be set.
What Trichet fears is what he calls "second-round effects", such as wages being set at levels that assume inflation will not fall - which could precipitate endemic inflation, a debilitating virus that would be hard to shake off.
Chatting to Trichet was in some ways strikingly similar to listening to Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, as he warned last week (yet again) that his fabled NICE era of non-inflationary consistent expansion is well and truly over. As it happens, Trichet has a strong empathetic relationship with the Bank. He said:
"I feel very close myself to the Bank of England. I feel that the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England and the Governing Council of the ECB have very much equivalent analysis on this major point... that we had to have a monetary policy stance which would be designed to deliver price stability."
Or to put it another way: there's not the faintest chance of interest rates falling in the eurozone or the UK for some time (if at all).
The other very striking point made by Trichet is that he rejects any suggestion that the ECB should have an explicit goal of (in his words) "ensuring stability in the price of assets". He said: "it doesn't seem to me possible."
He added: "We will do all we can to delivery price stability and ensure financial stability through the delivery of price stability. But we cannot directly target asset prices. That would probably be something which is impossible, I would say, and not advisable at all."
This matters, because one of the causes of the credit crunch was the rapid and unsustainable rise in asset prices, especially property prices, in the preceding two or three years.
During those bubble years, Trichet was at the forefront of central bankers warning about the dangers of all those trillions of dollars being lent and invested without due regard to the proper risks. He spotted that asset prices were inflating too fast.
But his sounding of the alarm did nothing to stop the bubble expanding to near lethal proportions - such that when it popped, the cost for the financial system and the global economy was very substantial.
Perhaps sensibly Ben Bernanke - chairman of the US Federal Reserve - is reviewing (against his own revealed instincts) whether his central bank should intervene more conspicuously when asset prices surge.
M.Trichet implies Mr Bernanke is wasting his time.
Probably better, as many central bankers and regulators now believe, would be to look at whether new rules can be introduced that would raise and lower the capital requirements of relevant financial institutions in a counter-cyclical way - such that their capacity to lend too much too cheaply was constrained in boom years (with the corset being loosened in downturns).
So are we, at the least, over the worst of the credit crunch? The Bank of England recently said there were signs that financial markets are past their nadir.
What is the prognostication of the wily M Trichet, who has had a ringside seat at every international financial crisis since the mid-1980s? Well I pressed him and pressed him, and he pointedly refused to say that the point of maximum danger is behind us.
All he would say is that we are experiencing an "ongoing, very significant market correction."
Which, given his record of calling the credit crunch rather more astutely than the Fed or the Bank of England, isn't conspicuously reassuring.
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Chris
Would profit on disposal not signify that there is a possibility that assets are overstated? If they have disposed of the aircraft at the end of their UEL then the profit would signify that assets are overvalued as the depreciation policy is not adequate...
I guess if they were disposed off within the time frame for depn (10 years sounds feasible - either SLB or reducing balance basis) then a profit would be expected but how much?
Anyway, about to embark on your route of an accountant turned pilot but like you concerned of the financial commitment in terms of job availability
Would profit on disposal not signify that there is a possibility that assets are overstated? If they have disposed of the aircraft at the end of their UEL then the profit would signify that assets are overvalued as the depreciation policy is not adequate...
I guess if they were disposed off within the time frame for depn (10 years sounds feasible - either SLB or reducing balance basis) then a profit would be expected but how much?
Anyway, about to embark on your route of an accountant turned pilot but like you concerned of the financial commitment in terms of job availability
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Would profit on disposal not signify that there is a possibility that assets are overstated? If they have disposed of the aircraft at the end of their UEL then the profit would signify that assets are overvalued as the depreciation policy is not adequate...
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---> thread creep
It doesn't matter what depreciation you use, so long as it is consistent. It is not supposed to be the actual cost of the asset, but a proxy charge for that asset each year. Besides, if you analyse various companies between each other, you would look at the EBITDA to eliminate differing deprecation policies.
---> thread creep over
It doesn't matter what depreciation you use, so long as it is consistent. It is not supposed to be the actual cost of the asset, but a proxy charge for that asset each year. Besides, if you analyse various companies between each other, you would look at the EBITDA to eliminate differing deprecation policies.
---> thread creep over
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Well I don't think there's ever going to be an ideal time to fork out 60k or more on flight training. For the naysayers above....no I havent been hoodwinked by an FTO glossy mag and no im not some mindless idiot thats blindly cracking on with my training whilst the industry tumbles around me. I know whats going on in the world but as its often said; the decision to fork out this amount of money on persuing our common goal is a very personal one. I cant see things going down the pan quite as much as many of you predict but thats just my opinion.
As for the profit on disposal of fixed assets....if they were overstating their balance sheet then they would be more likely to make a loss on disposal not a profit. If they have understated them then they could easily make a profit if they sell them for the true market value. Anyway, we digress.
Whatever happens....good luck for the coming months folks. Things may get ****ty for a while but they'll pick up again sooner or later.
As for the profit on disposal of fixed assets....if they were overstating their balance sheet then they would be more likely to make a loss on disposal not a profit. If they have understated them then they could easily make a profit if they sell them for the true market value. Anyway, we digress.
Whatever happens....good luck for the coming months folks. Things may get ****ty for a while but they'll pick up again sooner or later.
Chris I hear what you say and accept that there never is a perfect time to start training without the aid of a crystal ball.
The thing I wish to convey is simply that based on experience and research I believe I have a part-functioning crystal ball when it comes to pilot recuitment. It spells total famine, war and disease.
I've just finished dinner with a household name estate agent chain owner. Its worse than 1991 and accelerating.
It really is worse this time by a scale factor.
WWW
The thing I wish to convey is simply that based on experience and research I believe I have a part-functioning crystal ball when it comes to pilot recuitment. It spells total famine, war and disease.
I've just finished dinner with a household name estate agent chain owner. Its worse than 1991 and accelerating.
It really is worse this time by a scale factor.
WWW
George Soros in the Telegraph today really spells it out clearly and without caveat:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnsoros126.xml
Mr Soros warns Britain is facing its worst economic storm in living memory, dwarfing those of the 1970s and early 1990s, with a housing slump and serious recession.
He said: "The dislocations will be greater [than in the 1970s] because you also have the implications of the house price decline, which you didn't have in the 1970s."
The warning undermines predictions that Britain will suffer only a brief and relatively painless recession, unlike the precipitous dives of previous years.
Mr Soros also warned that the Bank's inflation report represents a "Faustian pact", obliging it to keep interest rates high to control inflation, even as the economy is starting to slump.
"You had the nice decade," he said. "Now that is over and you are in a straitjacket."
Mr Soros made a decent fist of breaking the Bank of England during the ERM crisis and is one of the big boys in the hedge fund world. Doubtless his comment is angled to support his positions. But the comments of Central Bankers are equally couched in secondary interests.
We're going back the 1970's.
WWW
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...cnsoros126.xml
Mr Soros warns Britain is facing its worst economic storm in living memory, dwarfing those of the 1970s and early 1990s, with a housing slump and serious recession.
He said: "The dislocations will be greater [than in the 1970s] because you also have the implications of the house price decline, which you didn't have in the 1970s."
The warning undermines predictions that Britain will suffer only a brief and relatively painless recession, unlike the precipitous dives of previous years.
Mr Soros also warned that the Bank's inflation report represents a "Faustian pact", obliging it to keep interest rates high to control inflation, even as the economy is starting to slump.
"You had the nice decade," he said. "Now that is over and you are in a straitjacket."
Mr Soros made a decent fist of breaking the Bank of England during the ERM crisis and is one of the big boys in the hedge fund world. Doubtless his comment is angled to support his positions. But the comments of Central Bankers are equally couched in secondary interests.
We're going back the 1970's.
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