I agree that bad news sells. However, those that utter the phrase "talking ourselves into recession" or who blame collapsing house price bubbles on "media doom mongering" are merely in denial. Denial is a phase of the process. Fear, Capitulation and finally Despair are the next phases.
You can't deny the M4 or M3 money data, the inflation figures, the rising insolvency, the price to earnings ratios, the credit supply contraction nor can you deny the crash that is happening in similar economies. You can ignore the lessons of economic history but you cannot deny them either.
Every house price bubble since the late 1950's has burst, leading to recession and recessions are murder on airlines who always seems to operate right up to the very edge of the economies capacity. Combine a recession (even a mild one) with an oil price shock (even a mild one) and you have a uniquely horrid situation for airlines.
This is emphatically not the case for airlines in any of the BRIC countries who are going flat out for airline expansion. Ditto the Middle East. All good news for experienced pilots who find themselves on the jobs market unexpectedly - plenty of contracting work out there in the wider world.
For a Wannabe and in particular a UK Wannabe the picture is far more bleak.
Consider a tiny shard of the bigger picture in the form of the CTC cadets. One of the the very largest taker of these cadets from the Wings scheme was easyJet. Who are now overcrewed and looking to reduce pilot numbers. Many other airlines who have taken CTC cadets are in a similar position, Thomas Cook and Thomson spring to mind. The cadets coming out of the system in the coming months are going to need jobs and I can't see there being enough.
These carefully selected, groomed and marketed by CTC Wannabe airline pilots will be in the same pile of CV's that yours will be.
Don't abandon your dreams. But DO protect yourself and your family by avoiding taking on risky debt based on an assumption of getting a job swiftly.
Keep your debt low. Taking this decision informs you of the most appropriate training decisions.
WWW
ps As an aside here are the current debt stats for the UK as of 1st May 2008 courtesy of
http://www.creditaction.org.uk Its scary stuff and it CANNOT continue to grow at this rate..
Total UK personal debt at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,430bn. The growth rate increased to 8.7% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £113bn.
Total secured lending on homes at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,200bn. This has increased 9.1% in the last 12 months.
Total consumer credit lending to individuals in March 2008 was £230bn. This has increased 6.7% in the last 12 months.
Total lending in March 2008 grew by £8.2bn. Secured lending grew by £6.9bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by £1.2bn.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £9,216 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £21,433 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £57,420 (including mortgages).
Average owed by every UK adult is ~ £30,120 (including mortgages).
Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages now stands at ~ £101,530.
Two fifths of mortgagors have secured debts of over £90,000, up from one fifth in 2004.
Britain's interest repayments have soared to £93.8bn in the last 12months. The average interest paid by each household on their total debt is approximately £3,765 each year which has increased £340 in the last 12 months.