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Melbourne stage 4 lockdown and GA

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Melbourne stage 4 lockdown and GA

Old 19th Aug 2020, 22:08
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by thisishardtochoose
whereas Metropolitan Melbourne who are under Stage 4 are the ones who have had to stop operating unless charter/freight ops.
Unless you are Oxford and keep running flying lessons against the ruling of the CHO.

Does anyone know if they are still flying?

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Old 20th Aug 2020, 02:36
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Squawk7700

Does anyone know if they are still flying?
They have stopped for now
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Old 20th Aug 2020, 05:04
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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Squawk7700 you really need to get updated sources. CAE, MFS and others that were operating with approval from Business Victoria and have since stopped after the Vic Gov assessment that they are no longer allowed. What you may see over the coming weeks is all flying school aircraft doing a sortie IAW with the service bulletins that require such.
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Old 20th Aug 2020, 10:51
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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You mean I NEED a source.

Thats why I asked here, because I didnít know !
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Old 21st Aug 2020, 19:59
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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5th August some of you rubbished me for posting the following advice I’d received:

Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet. There are thus national and global reasons for the lockdown....
‘’Today I’m vindicated, as I said I would be.

Genomic sequencing data which shows that nearly every case in Victoria’s COVID-19 second wave can be linked to a handful of infections at the state’s quarantine hotels, will finally be released by the Victorian state government.

Premier Daniel Andrews had ordered the public release of the data, a spokesman confirmed on Friday.

Genomic sequencing ties together potential COVID-19 transmission clusters by comparing the genetic information of viruses isolated from different people. The technique can tell how closely related various viruses are, allowing scientists to infer likely chains of transmission.

The data became the centre of the unfolding hotel quarantine in Victoria, with the Premier refusing for weeks to release it.

It was the star witness of the inquiry into the state's hotel quarantine program on Monday, when scientists revealed it linked 99 per cent of current cases in Victoria back to travellers in the quarantine hotels.
The data can be released now because the outbreak appears to be under control at last. Early release had the potential to start a panic with rather bad implications for everyone.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 00:11
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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You need to get some more up to date sources.

The link back to hotel quarantine has been publicly reported for weeks. Scott Morrison has been using it to blame Daniel Andrews for all the cases in Australia, since NSW and QLD cases seem to have been spread from Victoria.

Your quote doesn't say anything about infectiousness. If you have been paying attention to what happened elsewhere in the world, you would see that what is happening in Victoria is no different to what has happened anywhere else in the world. Many places had doubling times of about 3 days in the early stages. I think the doubling time in Victoria was 7-8 days, so it was never spreading as fast in Victoria as it has in other places. (The measures put in place to prevent spread make a big difference.)
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 01:16
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
ĎíToday Iím vindicated, as I said I would be.
Absolutely nothing in what you've posted supports your claim that the Melbourne strain of the virus is more infectious (virulent) than any other genetic variation.

Still waiting.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 02:08
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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Wait till you see the genetic data. Stick shift, the FACT that the melbourne outbreak is all of the same type indicates that it has crowded out other variants which, QED , means that its more infectious than other strains. I suspect it may be the same as the current Italian(I think) variant which is also top of the league ladder for infectious ness, although my original advice was that it’s our own Special variant..

if the fact that this virulent strain was responsible for all the Melbourne cases was discovered by the general public before the outbreak had been blunted, there was a risk that people would panic and try and leave Melbourne. There are not enough Police to stop a stampede like that. That’s why it’s only now that Dan will release the data.

‘’AndrewR, doubling times are not a measure of infectiouness because the social distancing precautions in place are part of that number.


To put that another way, I didn’t spin my initial post out of my backside. I’m not a virologist. Where do you think I got the data? It was a heads up to be @3&*ing careful of this bug, a warning which I passed on to you.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 02:16
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Wait till you see the genetic data. Stick shift, the FACT that the melbourne outbreak is all of the same type indicates that it has crowded out other variants which, QED , means that its more infectious than other strains.
No, the data simply indicates a recent common source, which has been identified as a family of four in quarantine in a Melbourne hotel.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 02:16
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
ĎíToday Iím confirmed as having absolutely no idea what I'm talking about, as everyone said I would be.
Fixed it for you.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 05:24
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
It was a heads up to be @3&*ing careful of this bug, a warning which I passed on to you.
Iím so glad that you posted your warning on PPRuNe so that we could all get it long before the government and health authorities informed the rest of the public.

If you hadnít told us, I would have never known that the virus would be so dangerous.

Next year if I havenít succumbed to the virus, I will nominate you for an Order of Australia medal for your contribution to community safety.

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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 05:59
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Iím not a virologist. Where do you think I got the data?
You're not virologist? You don't say!
I'm guessing the data may not have come from a peer reviewed journal?
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 06:20
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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‘’Of course I’m not a virologist, but I refer you to Plato/; “just because an idiot says the sun is shining doesn’t make it dark outside”.

Clare of course it’s peer reviewed, but that is months later. This is the first genomics report from May.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....12.20099929v1

‘It indicates that the earlier disease was from multiple sources.

This article, from the smh gives more background. Remember this wasn’t old news when I told you.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/as-t...21-p55nxj.html

If you Wait for the preprint of the new report you will be waiting till Christmas.


Despite this being a rumor network, the next bit of the puzzle, which has the emergency services management tearing their hair out at the moment, you will have to find out yourselves.

Last edited by Sunfish; 22nd Aug 2020 at 08:36.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 08:40
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Wait till you see the genetic data. Stick shift, the FACT that the melbourne outbreak is all of the same type indicates that it has crowded out other variants which, QED , means that its more infectious than other strains.
That the cases were likely all of the same origin has been reported for at least a month. But we don't have enough cases for any variant to "crowd out" other variants. There are plenty of susceptible people for any strain to spread, if it is out there. What it does mean is that we may have been a few cases away from zero community spread in Australia, if not for the rush to open things up again. Just because you, your brothers and sisters and cousins all had a common ancestor doesn't mean you have any special reproductive ability.

Originally Posted by Sunfish
It was a heads up to be @3&*ing careful of this bug, a warning which I passed on to you.
Melbourne is locked down, with a curfew and people allowed out for 1 hour a day. We have seem mass graves required in other countries. Do you think people haven't figured that out? Back in January/February scientists and epidemiologists who worked on Ebola were saying this virus was scarier than Ebola. Since then the worldwide death toll has proved them right. Hopefully "be careful of this bug" isn't news to anybody.​
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 08:49
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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Reference to Squawk comment re the allegation that this was one mutation:
The Premier and the Chief Health Officer addressed this specific “rumour” on the news tonight in intricate detail and said it is nothing but a rumour and there is absolutely no substance.
The latest SMH article explains that they were perhaps economical with the truth.

On the same day Andrews announced Melbourne’s return to lockdown, senior figures leading Victoria's COVID-19 response were briefed on the latest developments. This briefing contained information from the Intelligence Section of the COVID-19 Public Health Incident Management Team which, every week, receives genomic data from the MDU.

This information went beyond what the Premier had publicly revealed a week earlier when he said a “significant number and potentially more" of the outbreaks in Melbourne’s northern suburbs were attributable, via genomic sequencing, to quarantine hotel staff. It was now clear that, when the virus first broke out of Rydges Hotel on Swanston Street and subsequently the Stamford Plaza Hotel in Little Collins Street, Victoria was all but COVID-free.

The entire second wave - every known infection - had been traced back to these quarantine hotels.

‘’Some of you, except Squawk, seem to have no idea of the knife edge we are balanced on. The Government, in fact all sensible governments, go to great pains to make sure you never know because it would cause unnecessary disturbance. Covid 19 is still a national and international threat to this country. You have no idea what is being done to support our supply chains (and neither do I, just that it’s happening). There is massive amounts being done behind the scenes and when a mug like me lifts the curtain a tiny bit your response is derision.

Last edited by Sunfish; 22nd Aug 2020 at 09:03.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 09:29
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Reference to Squawk comment re the allegation that this was one mutation:

The latest SMH article explains that they were perhaps economical with the truth.




ĎíSome of you, except Squawk, seem to have no idea of the knife edge we are balanced on. The Government, in fact all sensible governments, go to great pains to make sure you never know because it would cause unnecessary disturbance. Covid 19 is still a national and international threat to this country. You have no idea what is being done to support our supply chains (and neither do I, just that itís happening). There is massive amounts being done behind the scenes and when a mug like me lifts the curtain a tiny bit your response is derision.
Donít go dragging me into your little fantasy world thanks!

I have sources and you have been on the sauce I reckon.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 11:31
  #137 (permalink)  
 
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We will see when the next scientific paper comes out.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 12:49
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Clare of course it’s peer reviewed, but that is months later.
It says clearly: This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

You can click on the "what does this mean?" and it tells you more about what a preprint is. This is basic stuff if you have studied a science degree.
When reading anything like this you should ask questions such as, is it peer reviewed, how recent is it (25 Jan to 14 April, long before the "second wave") what was the sample size, who funded it?

Last edited by Clare Prop; 22nd Aug 2020 at 13:01.
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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 16:47
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Nobody was challenging the notion that this was a single mutation.

As has been said, we have known that was likely the case for several weeks already.

But you said:

Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet.
This, we challenged. And you still have shown no evidence of it.

And, no, being the "only" outbreak does not make it the "most infectious" strain on the planet. Putting "QED" in a sentence does not make it so. Perhaps it is, but so far evidence is that even the D614G mutation has not proven to be any more infectious despite becoming prevalent in many parts of the world.

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Old 22nd Aug 2020, 20:30
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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Clare,, look at who is on the list of authors (including Brett Sutton) and tell me its. not going to pass muster.

Derfred, Melbourne moved to stage 4 lockdown on 2 August. That was the reason for my original post on 5 august.. Yes, we knew about the hotel quarantine failure. We knew about where the virus went after that. What you didn’t know was that the virus responsible for this problem was a single strain until I passed that on to you on 5 August. My advice was (a) it was a single strain, and (b) it was a shocker as far as transmission went.

(a) has been proven correct.

As for (b), wait till the DHHS publishes the data as the Premier has permitted.

I am not a virologist, but when one of them tells me something I passed it on. If anyone thinks I make this crap up, go and do the proverbial.

Last edited by Sunfish; 22nd Aug 2020 at 20:50.
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