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Melbourne stage 4 lockdown and GA

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Melbourne stage 4 lockdown and GA

Old 6th Aug 2020, 06:18
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I can't even think of what Avmed is going to make us pilots do in our next medical renewals
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 07:27
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Originally Posted by Pearly White
Mate, reality check. This disease has the capacity to seriously affect everyone. As soon as we get R>1, every person who gets it infects more than one other person.

Yesterday a Melbourne man in his 30s with no previous conditions died.

Even if you don't die, you can be crippled by the disease.
Check out this Scottish pilot - needs a lung transplant after losing 90% capacity to COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-on-ventilator
I totally understand the realities - I was just stating the facts, and that the restrictions haven't personally affected my life too much.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 07:30
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Originally Posted by machtuk
By that account there ought to be young healthy people deceased every where?!
There are young healthy people deceased everywhere the disease has spread widely. We have enough cases now that we will have young people die. It is a slow disease for young people, typically 3 weeks before their condition deteriorates so we are only starting to see the effect of the jump in cases in Victoria. Increases in deaths lag case numbers by several weeks, but are inevitable.

The disease is a danger to everyone - not just old people.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 07:45
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet.
Do you have a reference for that? It is possible, but the reality is that this disease has been incredibly infectious from the start. Remember the massive lockdowns in China in the beginning? The incredible levels of PPE that the doctors and nurses in China were using to avoid infection?

I don't think we have reached the rate of infection that some places saw in the early days, where case numbers were doubling about every 3 days.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 08:08
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet. There are thus national and global reasons for the lockdown....
The COVID virus has never 'mutated' or been more (or less) virulent based on genetics.

You can track the genetic differences of the virus (this is normal - not 'mutations'!) against worldwide geographical areas on this interactive site, just hit the 'play' button.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 08:12
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Be careful not to confuse the rate of infection with the level of contagiousness.

We may currently have some of the more contagious strains here, however our rate of infection is statistically low.

I was in a hospital all day today and the impact of the virus was huge, but yet I spotted several staff members getting around without face masks !
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 13:46
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+1 Squawk.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 13:50
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Stick shift. The Melbourne strain is the most infectious on the planet at the moment. As for its lethality I know not.
’I say again the lockdown is a global matter but Dan doesn’t want to scare you.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 19:33
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Stick shift. The Melbourne strain is the most infectious on the planet at the moment. As for its lethality I know not.
íI say again the lockdown is a global matter but Dan doesnít want to scare you.
If you were to provide a reference for this claim, it would no doubt make it completely clear what is or is not special about the Covid floating around Melbourne.
That you haven't leaves me wondering whether you've misinterpreted something you've heard or read, since nobody else seems to have heard of it.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 21:50
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Nonsense. I can’t give you the person lest they get into trouble. The Peter Doherty reference is as close as I will give.

Knowing shouldn’t change your behaviour anyway. Give it a few weeks and a paper will probably be published, then the media will say “what do you know?”.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 21:55
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The next thing he will be saying to us is ďtrust me.Ē

Sunfish, there are different strains / mutations of the virus in Melbourne.

We may in fact have the most infectious one in the world right here.... however we also have others, so therefore what you are saying is technically correct, but poorly worded.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 22:58
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I know Peter Doherty is not the Peter Doherty Institute, but this is a quote from Peter Doherty yesterday:
"if a particular strain is more infectious, it would tend to take over in the general virus-scape. So far, nothing to worry about re virulence or immune escape."

As you say, it shouldn't change your behaviour anyway.
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Old 6th Aug 2020, 23:27
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Stick shift. The Melbourne strain is the most infectious on the planet at the moment. As for its lethality I know not.
Since the beginning of the pandemic there has been ongoing research and discussion into the genetic changes leading to increased virulence. However, there has never been any clear-cut evidence that this is indeed the case:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...are-skeptical/

I agree that regardless of virulence, human behavior and hygienic practices can minimise the spread.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 03:48
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Nonsense. I canít give you the person lest they get into trouble. The Peter Doherty reference is as close as I will give.
So it's no more than something somebody said on the internet.
At least my username makes it clear that without references, you should take any extraordinary claims I make with a grain of salt.
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Old 7th Aug 2020, 05:50
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Nonsense, this is a rumor network. I didn’t get my advice from the internet either. It comes from a first hand source as did my warnings posted around 6 march. You don’t have to believe me.
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 02:59
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It does seem that Melbourne has a particularly infection version of this bug.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 03:44
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Sunfish:
Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet. There are thus national and global reasons for the lockdown....
Your mate must be keeping it pretty secret, because it seems nobody has told Victoria's Chief Health Officer...

From: ABC live news blog:

Professor Sutton said there was no evidence that Victoria's uptick in cases was a result of a new strain of coronavirus, but more down to behavioural fatigue.

"There is no suggestion we have a tougher virus in terms of its transmissibility or severity,' Professor Sutton said.

"We have a challenge that the world has of second waves, behavioural fatigue, the ability to penetrate the message, to sustain those behaved over such a difficult and long period of time.

"That's why Israel's second wave is four times bigger than its first, why Spain is looking at a second wave, almost as substantial as its first. That is why Iran never really moved through its wave, they couldn't get those changes to come into place.

"We are working hard to make sure we can ship those behaviours are make the structural differences that limit the interactions people have so we can get through it."
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 04:00
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In his defence, Sunfish has shown himself to be the definitive expert on a wide range of subjects, epidemiology being the latest.
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 04:31
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Originally Posted by Guptar
It does seem that Melbourne has a particularly infection version of this bug.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
Did you read the article?

It was arguing that it has not become any more virulent...
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Old 8th Aug 2020, 04:46
  #80 (permalink)  
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So back to topic..........

Any flying training going on in Melbourne?
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