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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-organisation
This won't amount to much of anything in the long run. |
Just read Andy McNab’s book Down To The Wire - interesting / worrying !
Has Iran now got the capability to launch a successful Cyber attack on the West ? disabling vital services - thus deterring an American strike? Has Cyber now taken over the MAD deterrent role from Nuclear and is it enough to prevent WW3 ? |
[QUOTE=mahogany bob;12029416]Just read Andy McNab’s book Down To The Wire - interesting / worrying !
Has Iran now got the capability to launch a successful Cyber attack on the West ? /QUOTE] - Very much so and already has. AI: Yes, Iran has the technical capability to launch successful cyberattacks on Western infrastructure, and it is currently ranked as a "second-tier" cyber threat—comparable to North Korea but behind Russia and China. |
Interesting LT. Think a nation under the gun might strike first using cyber technology knowing that if they wait until the bombs fall that their capabilities would be eliminated in the beginning minutes.
I’ve looked for the book on Amazon, only to find what looks to be a fictional account about a kidnapping. |
Surely if Iran has the capability to launch a cyber strike, it is better to get it over with now, before everything is handed over to AI and society becomes at one with the machine.
Yes a month of disruption would be difficult and costly now, however Iran and NK with nukes and cyber capability would be far worse. Take the pain now and remove the regime only having to deal with small terrorist organisations that can be dealt with ruthlessly and piecemeal like Israel have shown the way. |
" however Iran and NK with nukes and cyber capability would be far worse."
NK has nukes and is a world leader in cyber crime - they almost wrote the book........ |
C-135 mentioned upthread now departed from base just south of Lincoln and appears to be heading NW, back to US?
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If Iran has a level of cyber capability that could cause such global disruption, then the wider implications (bearing in mind where Iran might be expected to sit on the global spectrum of cyber capability) are intriguing indeed.
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https://archive.is/20260130131338/ht...ikes-d7lmbcc37
The Times: UK backs American strikes on Iran to stop nuclear programme Sir Keir Starmer has signalled British support for a US strike on Iran, saying he backs President Trump’s goal of preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump warned earlier this week that time was “running out” for Iran to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons programme as the United States continues to build up forces in the region. Speaking in China, the prime minister said he supported Trump’s move to “deal” with the Iranian regime on both its nuclear programme and the recent crackdown on democracy protesters. “The goal or the aim here is that Iran shouldn’t be able to develop nuclear weapons. That is hugely important and, of course, we need to deal with the fact they are repressing protesters, killing protesters,” he told the BBC. “It is grotesque, what is happening, so that is where our focus is and we are working with allies to that end.” Asked if he was backing strikes, he said: “I am saying we support the goal and we are talking to allies about how we get to that goal.”...... |
A strike now is a month too late. The Security services have killed thousands and put the genii back in the bottle - at least for a while. Now the US will turn up, bomb Iran, kill some important (but rapidly replaced) people and then, again, turn to somewhere else.
Doesn't seem like a winning strategy |
Asturias, what do you assume the actual strategy to be?
Regime change or a counter to Iran's nuclear ambitions? (Granted, it may be both, but which one has primacy of place? Iran's ruling elite has been hammering their own people, consistently, for some years. One can go further back than the 2009 protests, but that is a convenient bookmark.) Then again, maybe you make an error by assuming that there is a strategy. ;) What is more likely is that this is just one more headline grab, just as the noise about Iranian government not killing their own people was. :p |
The strategy is probably to distract from the upcoming midterms
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"Then again, maybe you make an error by assuming that there is a strategy."
Possibly 'cos I've just finished Chernow's bigraphy of Grant - Lincoln, Grant, Sherman- now THAT was strategy....................... I feel a bit sorry for the people of Venezuela & Greenland - World Media Stars one week and 15 minutes later not even mentioned. Maybe we should take bets on where after Iran? |
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12029749)
A strike now is a month too late. The Security services have killed thousands and put the genii back in the bottle - at least for a while. Now the US will turn up, bomb Iran, kill some important (but rapidly replaced) people and then, again, turn to somewhere else.
Doesn't seem like a winning strategy The conditions that triggered the uprising by the Iranian people are still present. All that’s needed is another spark. That spark could very well be the sudden offing of leadership, and perhaps more importantly the elimination/degradation of the security apparatus used for maintaining control. |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12029864)
I wouldn’t be so quick to say the window has passed.
The conditions that triggered the uprising by the Iranian people are still present. All that’s needed is another spark. That spark could very well be the sudden offing of leadership, and perhaps more importantly the elimination/degradation of the security apparatus used for maintaining control. |
I don’t disagree Pistons. As the kids say, your mileage may vary.
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More Russian toys. Perfect for mowing down protesters. |
Of course even just approaching the carrier group with a drone able to uplink targeting data for a missile attack is, in itself, a potentially hostile act.
You get away with it with a manned aircraft where some discretion might apply - not with a drone. https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/0...iranian-drone/ U.S. F-35C Shoots Down Iranian Drone Heading for USS Lincoln An Iranian drone was shot down by the U.S. military on Feb. 3, 2026, according to a U.S. official cited by Reuters. The unmanned aircraft, a Shahed-139, was flying towards the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) as it was sailing in the Arabian Sea, prompting the intercept. The official specified that an F-35 Lightning II was scrambled to intercept the drone, and later shot it down. The USS Lincoln is currently assigned Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9, which includes among its squadrons the Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314, flying the F-35C. Details about the shootdown are currently unknown, and it is unclear how close the drone came to the ship and if it was carrying weapons. Shahed-139 The Shahed-139 is a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle developed by Iran, which presents many visual similarities with the U.S.-made MQ-1 Predator. It features a conventional fuselage, rear-mounted pusher propeller, and straight wings optimized for long-endurance surveillance and strike missions. Images released by state media have shown the drone of carries an electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor and possibly a small radar. There are no photos of the aircraft carrying weapons, however, considering that the aircraft is a further development of the Shahed-129 armed drone, it is believed that the Shahed-139 might be able to carry a weapon payload of four missiles.….. |
As neither mod nor admin:
A question for the panel: do you think that was a case of IRGC sending out a drone in order to see what the USN would do about it? A "testing the waters" kind of thing? |
The panel would probably have been astounded if the US had done otherwise.
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Originally Posted by T28B
(Post 12031760)
As neither mod nor admin:
A question for the panel: do you think that was a case of IRGC sending out a drone in order to see what the USN would do about it? A "testing the waters" kind of thing? This was the obvious reaction. I think the panel would agree this was out of 'Military 101'. |
An F-35 was "scrambled" to shoot it down....?
Given the carrier's location, and potential hostilities, would there not be a standing CAP available (or whatever modern TLA is used to denote what I used to know as CAP)? |
One wonders at whether or not the F-35s were on alert, airborne, or what have you. The journos sometimes take artistic license in reporting events. :p
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Much talk about hybrid warfare. The Telegraph reported that 'independence for Scotland' messages have long appeared on social media. They were found to be posted by bots and disappeared during Iran's blackout of its internet. Some of this stuff ... well, you couldn't make it up.
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Axios:
Plans for Iran nuclear talks are collapsing, U.S. officials say The U.S. told Iran on Wednesday that it will not agree to Tehran's demands to change the location and format of talks planned for Friday, two U.S. officials told Axios. Why it matters: The standoff could block the diplomatic path and convince President Trump to opt for military action. Driving the news:The U.S. and Iran had agreed to meet on Friday in Istanbul, with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers.
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Given how rare bilateral talks between US and Iran are, or have been for the last 45+ years, I'd say that the proposal for bilateral talks with a limited scope, in Oman, isn't an unfair position. Then, deal with the missile issues in a subsequent dialogue that has more stake holders in it.
But I guess that's not going to happen. |
It’s back on
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.....ISW:
NEW: Iran and the United States are expected to hold talks in Oman on February 6, despite the brief cancellation of the meeting on February 4. The Trump administration seeks to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and support for its proxy network. Iran continues to show inflexibility toward addressing US demands, which reduces the likelihood that Iran and the United States will be able to reach a diplomatic solution. A UK-based Middle East-focused outlet reported on February 3 that some Iranian regime policymakers believe that the only credible deterrent against US military action is the threat of a prolonged, costly war. Previous Iranian strikes that targeted US assets in the region failed to deter US military action, such as Iran’s strikes targeting Ain al-Assad Airbase in Iraq in 2020 and al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in June 2025. This report corroborates CTP-ISW’s previous assessment that Iran is attempting to deter US military action against Iran by forecasting that it will escalate into a prolonged regional war. |
Upping the ante before talks start.....
BREAKING: Iran has seized two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and detained roughly 15 foreign crew members. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have seized two oil tankers with their foreign crews in Gulf waters for “smuggling fuel,” the Tasnim news agency reported Thursday. The seizures took place amid heightened tension after Washington dispatched a naval group to the region after Tehran’s deadly response to anti-government protests. SPlot |
Does Iran have the capability to launch thousands of drones at the US fleet? Saturation must be a very real threat.
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12032828)
Upping the ante before talks start.....
Six Iranian gunboats unsuccessfully attempted to halt a U.S.-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported. The security firm Vanguard Tech told its clients on Tuesday that the Iranian vessels were armed with .50-caliber guns, and they ordered the oil tanker to turn off its engines and prepare to be boarded. Instead, the tanker sped up and was ultimately escorted to safety by a U.S. Navy vessel, according to the Journal. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment... |
Related?
Royal Air Force Airbus KC.2/3 Voyager 2x #43C6F7 ZZ334 - ASCOT 9221 #43C6F3 ZZ330 - ASCOT 9223 Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II 6x RAFAIR 9641-9644 flt 4x RAFAIR 9645-9646 flt 2x Six RAF F-35B’s have departed RAF Marham this morning to meet with two Voyager tankers. RAFAIR 9641 flight will go with ASCOT 9221, and RAFAIR 9645 flight with ASCOT 9223. ASCOT 9221 has met with RAFAIR 9641 flight and looks to be heading for France, possibly to RAF Akrotiri. ASCOT 9223 has confirmed they’re waiting for RAFAIR 9645 flight of two. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12032881)
Does Iran have the capability to launch thousands of drones at the US fleet? Saturation must be a very real threat.
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 12033481)
They would need to find it first.
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................
China Intensifies Support for Iran and Could Change the Game After sending a Type 055 destroyer and a Type 052 to the Sea of Oman region to escort the Ocean No. 1 intelligence ship, the Chinese are stepping up intelligence support to Iran. The Ocean No. 1 is likely monitoring all movements of U.S. Navy ships and submarines and passing the information to Iran. But in an increasingly bold move, the Chinese are photographing U.S. bases and making the photos public, and this time they photographed a newly installed THAAD battery and posted the images with location data online. Many people, including me, see this as a sign that the Chinese will not hesitate to provide full support to Iran, which appears to have turned to the Chinese after realizing that Russia’s ties with Israel were limiting the desired support. With two modern destroyers and the Ocean No. 1 in the region providing data to Iran, there is no chance of a surprise attack, making a zero-casualty strike even more difficult for US-Israel. Today alone, multiple Iranian facilities were hit by explosions, bringing the total to more than ten successful sabotage operations against the Iranian government in just the last ten days, including military targets. Yes, I’m raising the hypothesis that the Chinese are giving Iran something similar to what they gave Pakistan in the last conflict with India, even though they deny it. The Chinese support obviously goes beyond radars, which they know were easy targets last June. Those flights from China to Iran in the last two months, sometimes multiple times a day, didn’t have the capacity to carry anti-aircraft batteries, but they certainly had the capacity to carry a lot of integration equipment, including for ground BeiDou stations. It seems to me that after Iran migrated almost its entire arsenal to BeiDou and acquired more Chinese radas, they are either already operating or planning to operate something similar to Pakistan’s Link 17. If this happens, it would mean the Chinese are directly involved in target acquisition for the Iranians, completely preventing the kind of blackout that occurred last June. That would be a game-changer almost impossible to overcome at this moment. Iran’s C4ISR capabilities have received major investment in the last seven months, and China’s release of photos of U.S. bases clearly shows they intend to supply Iran with as much intelligence as possible. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....24775065f9.png |
Carrier U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford and its escort ships currently in the Caribbean have been ordered to redeploy to the Gulf.
ETA unknown but should be about 10-14 days if they go via the Suez Canal. |
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwygxz81330o
Emma Pengelly, BBC Verify and Ghoncheh Habibiazad, BBC Persian
This activity comes at a time of heightened tensions as talks between Iranian and US officials continue, with President Donald Trump threatening fresh military action against Iran if it does not agree a new deal on its nuclear programme. The photos, first analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a US-based think tank, show tunnel entrances being strengthened at Mount Kolang Gaz La - also known as Pickaxe Mountain. Experts say this facility may be designed to protect Iran's uranium enrichment activities or key equipment, but its exact purpose - and whether it is operational - remains unclear. |
Of course Trump won't be able to bull!!!!! his way out of this, like he did with Venezuela, Greenland etc, what with the Israelis breathing down his neck. They'll make it abundantly clear if they're not happy with any deal.
Also, I wonder how long the US will give the Iranians? They are masters in dragging out negotiations. |
ROFL.....
In an unexpected turn of events, US Air Force discovers Flightradar... US Air Force officer says random Twitter users tracking military flights are publishing info that would be considered “Secret or maybe even Top Secret” if done internally, and it’s making OPSEC extremely hard. Maj. Claire Randolph (US AFCENT, Chief of Weapons & Tactics): "You’ve got Twitter feeds of randos just studying where our airplanes go and publishing it. If US analysts did some of that, we would consider it Secret or maybe even Top Secret". |
Don’t they have an ON/OFF switch?
Mog |
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