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A US Navy MQ-4C Triton UAV just completed a reconnaissance mission of the northern Persian Gulf and Kharg Island. The drone orbited off Iran's largest oil terminal at Kharg Island. |
Salute!
Thanks Noaligb and Willow. And the introduction of the Warthog for a mission element it was originally designed for AND maybe relaxing the ROE here, I feel I can finnaly comment from personsl experience and that of mny of my peers from the 'nam and then the Storm experience, both A2A and A2G aspects. Oooops, interupt from fammily...more later. 400 + misions CAS, CSAR, BAI, interdictiion, etc plus flying with some of the main players from the countries involved . should suffice for my ante. Table stakes Gums sends... |
So easy the USN is incapable of doing it with the assets it has available and great risk from shore based missiles. NATO has no remit outside the Atlantic and Mediterranean.
It is being pointed out elsewhere this is Trump preparing the ground to declare victory and pull out his forces and wash his hands of the aftermath, saying chaos in the Gulf and closure of the Strait isn’t his problem. I’m not sure Iran will be willing to stop fighting as quickly, and US bases throughout the Middle East and elsewhere will continue to suffer attacks - as will the other Gulf nations if they don’t obey the Iran demand they evict all US forces and bases as a condition of ceasing to be attacked. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....494110463f.png |
Originally Posted by PointMergeArrival
(Post 12055345)
I strongly disagree. I find fdrs posts to be among the most entertaining, and at the same time full of insight.
fdr, please keep it flowing Maybe the author has become hardened through first hand experience, and comments accordingly. The continuing destruction in Iran is another instance of one idealogy in conflict with another, which invariably leads to the slaughter we are witnessing now. I find it sickening the biggest concern for some seems to be the increased cost of fuel, whilst thousands are dying and millions being displaced. I have no idea who's fault this situation is, being nowhere near learned enough in the subject, but I do know it is an enduring consequence of the human condition, entertainment, it is not. |
The nature of warfare is one of escalation. We have seen this happening in this war and there is no reason to believe it will stop with all three main players in such entrenched positions.
Possible - but by no means exclusive - further signs of escalation: 1. The GCC move to a more offensive posture. Recent messaging indicates a preparedness to take this action. 2. Iranian terrorist attacks outside the area of operations. 3. Further attacks on oil/ gas production facilities. Already threatened. 4. Further attacks on desalination infrastructure. 5. Houthi. Houthi action in the Red Sea has been muted. As oil exports start increasing through there, Houthi attacks on shipping at the behest of their Iranian paymasters is a distinct possibility. 6. Lebanon. This front is given less attention but increasing Israeli activity moving north through central Beirut is possible. Already refugees fleeing to Syria! Another Gaza? 7. USMC action. For various reasons I'd rule out Kharg but islands in the SoH are a possibility. 8. Deployment of more grounds troops, airborne or USMC , in theatre. 9. Turkey. Media reports of 3 confirmed missile attacks on Turkey. Article 5? Just my thoughts at the moment. Does anyone care to add? |
9. Turkey. Media reports of 3 confirmed missile attacks on Turkey. Article 5? |
It might still become necessary at some stage to look into ways how shipping can be enabled again and if asked nicely to support while sending also your own ships and acknowledging the risk it could at least be discussed. But this way? No way. |
Salute!
Upfront, the current scenario in the Gulf, especially the Strait, is different than what I and maybe others here encountered in 'nam and even in the Storm. Lottsa difference between the target set and especially the terrain - uncluttered open water. GASP! ...No trees, no serious SAM sites, long way at 60 or 70 knots to shelter and now I have laser-guided 70mm rockets and over a thousand rounds of 30 mm. Gotta love it. For sure, we should see MANPADS very soon, even now I postulate. But remember with the RX, but I can launch from several clicks away and maybe even have tgt designated by the Reaper on station 20,000 ft above ( note drone mission over Kharg earlier). Over the Trail the myriad of roads and "rest areas" in the trees allowed them to get away if I missed on first pass. The AAA was lots worse in the Storm, but the Warthog used Maverics at night for more kills than with the gun. Before I quit first post, the Viper is also an excellent choice for the BAI mission. Same loadout weapons as the Hawg, just less, but excellent systems and lots speed to react from alert pads. more Maybe Mogs and other vets of old can comment. A2A guys can help, but we mudbeaters/CSAR types should have respect from all. Gums sends... |
What is going on with Shipping.
Sal has some serious WTF are they doing questions. |
Not a mod, but:
An awful lot of political posts here - a reminder that this is NOT where political posts belong - there is a thread on Jet Blast where you can argue politics, and bash the US, Trump, UK, etc. to your hearts content. This thread is to discuss the military aspects, not the political aspects. I've not sicked the mods on anyone - yet - but if the political posts continue that will change. |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 12055687)
Not a mod, but:
An awful lot of political posts here - a reminder that this is NOT where political posts belong - there is a thread on Jet Blast where you can argue politics, and bash the US, Trump, UK, etc. to your hearts content. This thread is to discuss the military aspects, not the political aspects. I've not sicked the mods on anyone - yet - but if the political posts continue that will change. |
WW2 pilots will contest that attacking V1's was not good for your health.
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Salute!
Yep, but seems IDF choppers have figured out how to do it from alongside the drone. so debris and such goes to trail pronto. Secondly, no trajectory shift if stable at same speed as round moving fwd at same relative speed. "X' has a good video series of kills, but I didn't bkmark a link. Gums... |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 12055687)
Not a mod, but:
An awful lot of political posts here - a reminder that this is NOT where political posts belong - there is a thread on Jet Blast where you can argue politics, and bash the US, Trump, UK, etc. to your hearts content. This thread is to discuss the military aspects, not the political aspects. I've not sicked the mods on anyone - yet - but if the political posts continue that will change. Usually, it is best to just report various posts and let the Mod Team clean them out. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12055698)
WW2 pilots will contest that attacking V1's was not good for your health.
Helicopter vs Shahed Drone Ends in Disaster | Drone Nears Dubai However the V1 had no reactive guidance: once toppled it toppled. |
Originally Posted by henra
(Post 12055642)
So easy, so little risk that he doesn't even dare to order USN to do it. Is he that stupid or that evil? Sending your allies into the kill box while tellling them: don't worry, no risk you cowards while staying away yourself. Convoy protection would probably be pretty much the most risky part of the whole current campaign.
It might still become necessary at some stage to look into ways how shipping can be enabled again and if asked nicely to support while sending also your own ships and acknowledging the risk it could at least be discussed. But this way? No way. Does the US military blindly follow and agree with their CiC ? I assume many of them have worked along side NATO allies. Respectfully. How would the US military react if any other NATO leader called them cowards? |
Salute!
Well, Mr "T", the procedure for us was to go head to head and voice concern. Then turn in your papers and only then call a press conference or.... Gums sends... P.S. Flew with, taught by and taught other nationalities, religions and races. That including those in the Gulf region - Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Kuwait, UAE. Being in NATO, sameo, sameo for U.K, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands and on this side of the pond Canada. some of the Gulf folks made it a point to tell us they were Muslims but not Arabs. Hmmmm. Might see this soon over there. |
Cheers Donny, I'm sure the West will be delighted.
Iran war latest: Trump says US considering winding down war but other nations must guard Hormuz - BBC News |
Today winds up week three and begins week four. Pete said when this started that it would end in four or five weeks. (But as gums and others have noted, the enemy gets a vote as regards when they think that is over). I would suggest that we operate under the assumption that it will last another week, maybe a bit more. (Not because I believe much of anything he says, but due to (1) the logistics involved and (2) local government sending a lot of private messages to DJT about their appetite for armed conflict.
removed personal insult that added nothing T28B I noted in the JB Iran thread that one of our Brit posters has talked with some active duty UK personnel, and they don't appreciate being disrespected. Completely understand their feelings. Got all kinds of barbs thrown at US forces when I was working in NATO, but not usually by the heads of state of our allies. Heads of state tended to operate at a certain level of decorum. If they are upset with his comments, they have solid grounds to feel that way. |
The Times: https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/...base-m8v7pxvfg
Iranian arrested after ‘attempting to enter nuclear naval base’ An Iranian man has been arrested after he tried to get into the naval base where Britain’s four nuclear submarines are based. The individual, 34, accompanied by a female of unknown nationality, was in a vehicle when he approached the gate at HM Naval Base Clyde, known as Faslane, on Thursday. Without the right passes to enter, they were both turned away, it is understood. However, they were then arrested for “acting suspiciously in the vicinity”, a defence source said. Police Scotland said: “Around 5pm on Thursday, 19 March, 2026, we were made aware of two people attempting to enter HM Naval Base Clyde. A 34-year-old man and 31-year-old woman have been arrested in connection and enquiries are ongoing.” There were no further details on the suspicious behaviour, including whether they were trying to take photographs of the base. They did not manage to enter the facility. An investigation is under way and both Police Scotland and Ministry of Defence police are involved. A Navy spokesman said: “Police Scotland have arrested two people who unsuccessfully attempted to enter HM Naval Base Clyde on Thursday 19 March. As the matter is subject to an ongoing investigation, we will not comment further.” Faslane hosts four Trident-armed ballistic missile submarines tasked with maintaining the UK’s continuous at-sea deterrent. It is also home to the Royal Navy’s seven Astute-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, which can fire Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles at ground targets hundreds of miles inland with pinpoint accuracy. There has been some suggestion that one of the submarines, HMS Anson, could be brought back from Australia to the Gulf to help defend British troops against Iranian attacks in the region….. |
For all the current rumours of Trump calling off his war, remember he is mercurial and flip-flops on an almost daily basis - and he still has a USMC ARG heading for the Gulf at top speed, due to arrive around Monday.
I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver": "Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s. "An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn? "As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise. "What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it. "It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives. "Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are. "We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys." |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12055838)
There has been some suggestion that one of the submarines, HMS Anson, could be brought back from Australia to the Gulf to help defend British troops against Iranian attacks in the region….. |
ORAC:
For all the current rumours of Trump calling off his war, remember he is mercurial and flip-flops on an almost daily basis - and he still has a USMC ARG heading for the Gulf at top speed, due to arrive around Monday. What will that be, as regards this war that he decided was a good idea one day three weeks ago? I don't know, and I doubt he does either. Stay tuned. Sowing confusion amongst his emenies and allies seems to be the Strategery. :p Is he going to try and take Karg Island with a MEU? Bold, or maybe mad, and possibly a step too far...let's see what Monday brings. |
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/how-...de-1.500480847
Nothing counter to current capabilities and doctrine. |
Back to the War. As a direct result of this war, something else in the region has increased the number of displaced persons.
We do have another thread on that detail, but without this little war, that little escalation would not have happened. This attack on Iran (whether one is for it or against it) has had numerous ripple effects that I am not sure were considered before it began...or they were hand waved away. Again, come back in a week and a half. Logistically, that may be when an "operational pause" happens. Go back 35 years. The 100 hour War. They didn't just stop because of the highway of death videos. It was also a case of simple exhaustion by quite a few of the folks on the ground. |
Just read this at Aljazeera...any further info??
" US-UK military base on Diego Garcia targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles: ReportThe island of Diego Garcia, which hosts a joint US and British military base, has been targeted by Iran with at least two mid-range ballistic missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal.The report said that one of the missiles failed mid-flight while the other was hit by a US interceptor fired from a warship. Diego Garcia is located south of the equator in the central Indian Ocean. The Reuters news agency said the White House and British embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding the report. |
@JanetFlight
I believe that. The enemy shoots back. One may or may not like who is running Iran, but they are not stupid. Also, the SM family of Surface to Air Missiles have been able to intercept Ballistic Missiles since Aegis was invented. Fun Fact: During the Cold War, a patch was put into the Aegis Weapons System to not do that due to the ABM treaty. Some years ago, that patch was removed due to the ABM treaty being overcome by events when the Wall fell. |
Salute!
Hey guys! Be nice. O.K. to strongly disagree with tactics and strategy, and personal experience adds flavor and an amount of credibility/rationale, but ad hominen crapola is poor form. I think many folks think too highly of Kharg Island and should not believe it will be From our experience in these matters, you don't need to storm the beaches and have an outpost on every street corner. The complex has very visible weak points that can indeed be eliminated by air, and are not too hard to deal with by special ops folks if need be. Secondly, although well over 90% of the country's oil is passing thru that bottle neck, the dedicated fringe religious element in charge there for over 40 years coulld care less about a viable economy for the masses they kill for demonstrating or defecting. Their goal is not economi domination but religious. The masses could revert to 19th century conditions and such for all they care. The oil $$ helped advance the development of nuclear weaponry despite international, but inneffective agreements, and the $$ did not for big social programs or better highways/health care, manufacturing or good trading deals/commerce. It's just a cryin' shame more pipelines into Oman were not built. China has a fair say on the existing pipline/port facilities that bypass Homuz now, but maybe anothe two or three Gulf states will help with more. loggin' Gums... |
gums, they are sending in a MEU. Used to be that might not be expected but now in the "Information Age" the element of surprise is harder to harness.
Unless Iran's leadership feels a vice grip pinch on their nuts, they are not gonna stand down. Too proud, too stubborn. Human Psychology 101. |
For those of you who know who Simon Whistler is, he just did a brilliant analysis of the strikes on Kargh Island, and the strikes in Saudi Arabia. I think he nailed it.
His "this was merely the opening act" was chilling, but he made a good case for his assessment. |
:} IF 'mooch' would stop yapping at the beginning we may get: Deep Intel on the F-35 Hit over Iran
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Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. One missile failed in flight, the other was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.
Makes the range of the Iranian IRBM ~3800km+, far enough to target sites into Central Europe. 4000Km is long enough to reach Fairford…. Or London. (The great circle distance between Tabriz in NW Iran and London is 3900Km*) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../129712958.cms How Iran targeted US, UK base Diego Garcia 4,000km away in Indian Ocean https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ts-2026-03-21/ Iran targeted but did not hit Diego Garcia base with missiles, WSJ reports March 20 (Reuters) - Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but did !not hit the U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing multiple U.S. officials. One of the missiles failed in flight, while a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, although it could not be determined !if the interception succeeded, the newspaper said. The Journal did not specify when the missiles were fired. The White House and the British embassy in Washington and Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12055942)
Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. One missile failed in flight, the other was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.
Makes the range of the Iranian IRBM ~3800km+, far enough to target sites into Central Europe. 4000Km is long enough to reach Fairford…. Or London. (The great circle distance between Tabriz in NW Iran and London is 3900Km*) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../129712958.cms How Iran targeted US, UK base Diego Garcia 4,000km away in Indian Ocean https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ts-2026-03-21/ * https://www.greatcirclemap.com/?routes=TBZ-LHR |
When is 100% not 100%
Originally Posted by artee
(Post 12055960)
Food for thought, given that the UK has effectively no anti-ballistic missile defence, bar any T45s that may be available.
The latest reports that US may declare victory and mosey off back to CONUS pose some interesting challenges. Facts - the daily launches of missiles and drones clearly demonstrate that Iran's capability while degraded remains potent enough to inflict pressure across the region. If the US retires, it will fall on the regional powers to "negotiate" the near term future with Iran. They will need support from those that depend on the Gulf for petroleum and by-products. Huge increase in Chinese presence/influence anyone? The economic carnage resulting from US action is baked in - it doesn't go away because the USN is over the horizon heading home. It will reverberate for years. The damage is done. The terrorist threat is hugely increased in the West and will remain so for a generation. Do we need another SDR? |
If the US does pull out of Iran and this isn't just smoke and mirrors pending a land war and Europe gets involved that plays right into the hand of Putin.
The UK and Europe gets bogged down in Iran. Putin makes a move for Estonia, it's already using Psy-Ops on them. China makes a move for Taiwan. Perfect strom. |
Food for thought, given that the UK has effectively no anti-ballistic missile defence, bar any T45s that may be available. 1. A missile that range is outside the current engagement envelope of the T45 Aster 1 missile envelope, the planned upgrade to enable it won’t be done till the mid-2030s*. 2. With Dragon in the Med the only available T45 is Duncan, but th question is does she have missiles on board or would she have to go to Gibraltar to replenish. 3. Does the UK a suitably robust ABM C3 net to link Fylingdales BMEWS, T45 and No 10 to enable target detection, identification, decision making and interception with the missile time of flight. * https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post12049975 |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12055796)
Cheers Donny, I'm sure the West will be delighted. "But other nations must guard Hormuz" (the italics from the BBC thing quoted by DTR2 and added for context by me)
Originally Posted by Wyntor
(Post 12055973)
......... The latest reports that US may declare victory and mosey off back to CONUS pose some interesting challenges. ............. If the US retires, it will fall on the regional powers to "negotiate" the near term future with Iran. They will need support from those that depend on the Gulf for petroleum and by-products. ......................
Simplistic? Not if all US forces high-tailed it back to CONUS. Likely? Who the hell knows in these crazy times ....... Thinks, would I get a Nobel Peace Prize for the above suggestion? :ok:
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12055987)
If the US does pull out of Iran and this isn't just smoke and mirrors pending a land war and Europe gets involved that plays right into the hand of Putin. Putin makes a move for Estonia, it's already using Psy-Ops on them.
China makes a move for Taiwan. Perfect storm. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vlad...trump-11246050 |
Do you suggest a land war?
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The objective needs to be remove the regime from power. Once it is gone there won't be a nuclear programme or long range missile programme to worry about.
The regime should have never been allowed into power in the first place. If the useless Jimmy Carter had actually done something in 1979 we would not have to deal with this now. It would have been far simpler back then. Yet again it appears the Iranian people will be abandoned to their fate and left under the control of the regime. Strange that Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad were all removed but many in the western establishment want to leave the regime in Tehran in power. I wonder why it is the regime has such support, my Iranian friends often ask me the same question. |
An IRBM or ICBM without precision guidance and conventional ammunition is a waste of resources. To hit and destroy a bomber or other valuable target without terminal guidance of some kind, like lighting the traget with a laser is less likely than a hole in one in golf. The real danger comes when Iran develops working precision guidance systems.
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