Salute!

Looks like U.K. relenting on Yank use of some bases.

Gums...

The strike on Cyprus might have informed that...guessing though.

fdr, thank you for your insightful comments re. Art. 5 & 6 following the initial overnight attack on RAF Akrotiri, which seems to have been quite unprovoked if indeed the UK had not sanctioned the use of RAF Fairford (albeit just for “defensive” purposes) by the USAF in the current conflict at the time the attack was launched.

According to later news, it seems that a second attack on RAF Akrotiri followed the subsquent RAF Fairford announcement ... my initial gut feeling was that the UK government should at once, however belatedly, try to grow a pair and act accordingly ... but Starmer, being a lawyer, might be having difficulty untwisting his knickers right now, wondering who actually launched the attacks on RAF Akrotiri?

What if the attacks did not not come from Iran, but from the regime’s trigger-happy Hezbollah proxies in Lebanon? I imagine that a lawyer might have quite a high-quality problem in invoking Art.5 whilst still being unable to identify the adversary beyond doubt.

The UK government is rudderless and spineless, despite a massive parliamentary majority. Plagued by infighting and threatened from left and right, it is a paralysed spectator. We have three more years of this pantomime to endure, regardless of Iran.

TBH, places like Mildenhall and Lakenheath here in the UK have been fully involved in the run-up and ongoing support of the current Ops so the change appears to be more about Fairford and Diego Garcia being used to launch military strikes from if required. I suspect, in Iran's eyes, the UK, along with many other places in Europe, have been involved all along given the significant Logistic and Tanker support through/from European bases - hence Spain getting cold feet?

The issue is Iran hitting back into Europe. It'll not be drones and missiles. Such a response by Iran will bring a whole new slant to this war.

Poor gent, that looks painful. But hats off to the might F-15 for amazing survivability

Hezbollah seems to be a non state actor like Al Qaeda, so the Art 5 thing might not be all that difficult given the precedent. On the other hand, it is a legit political party in Lebanon, so it's not the same case.
My notional $50 dollar bet in Las Vegas would be on a series of fifth column moves/terrorist attacks/sabotage efforts... accompanied by cyber attacks...which based on which news you read, are already underway.

Well done Qatar, achieving something UK found difficult over Cyprus 🙄. Although, whilst there is no timeline for the downing of the jets, I have to wonder how on earth they managed to launch? Surely any useable runway would have been a primary target. Given the location of Akr, have type 45s been deployed to provide a shield?

Until he spoke today. Only on Saturday he was destroying their nuclear ambitions, missiles and Navy, now he took the last best chance to stop the country's regime. I hate to be the one to break this to you, but he's not wearing any clothes.

Lonewolf, you misattribute, that was dogle, not me.

Oh I agree. I think we've all noticed this about him. No doubt his downfall will come along soon. The sooner the better.

However I reiterate my point I made elsewhere. This is not so much about regime change as a change in the regime. He'll definitely be happy to leave the regime in place as long as it doesn't represent a threat to the region or the US. This is the endgame.
Just like Venezuela, he decapitated the leader, no doubt literally in the case of the Iranian leader. Venezuela is now cowed.

A cowed but despotic regime in Iran would be acceptable to Trump. He cares not about the Iranian people.

Remember Trump is a businessman at heart. A hostile Iran is bad for business.

Unfortunately I see a lot of commentary from journalists and indeed politicians who don't seem to have grasped the reality is that current US regime has no interest in helping the Iranian people and their freedom.

sorry, I think I messed up the multi quote tags. Fixed.

I believe the correct stat is that no F-15 has been lost in air-to-air combat (something like 100 kills to zero losses).

That's an interesting form of critique that you have made there.
Consider Operation Iraqi Freedom, begun in 2003. Ostensibly, and in a substantial portion of the public rhetoric, the US President was interested in helping the Iraqi people get a democracy. I doubt that you cared for that war, but its intent mirrors what you just advocated for.

What may upset you a great deal more is to discover that today, Iraq has a representative government.
Getting there was messy, though. Very messy.

Be careful of what you wish for, as you are sure to get it.

3 F-15E's lost in combat before today. two in the 1991 Gulf War (shot down by GBAD) and one over Libya in 2011 (techincal issue).

4 x Greek F-16s into Nicosia Airport to provide AD for Cyprus

One of the F-15E crew members - standing up is a good sign

All 11 Iranian Navy warships in the Gulf of Oman sunk

Those strike images are not SU-24 "Fitters". They are SU-17 Fitters.
The SU-24 is the "Fencer", a whole newer generation.
The "SU-24s" claimed as shot down by Qatar could be true.

Images of these two Fitters struck on the ground.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b50bbfbff1.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b29e03ec36.jpg