Yup, its deja vu all over again...

We rigged a VLCC under tow travelling east along the iron highway back in the early 80's, and approaching from the bow, there was a small back hole in the middle of the NO SMOKING "O" (the second one...). On passing behind, there was more or less nothing remaining of the after sections of the superstructure, it was a smOking ruin. The Iraqi's and Iranians certainly changed the opinion of some of that crew, and yet, the highway had no shortage of VLCC's plying their trade.

Our economies rely on energy supplies, but over time, since the early 70's we have become more adept to reacting to the volatility of the supply chain. We have also become more reactive in doing something loud about it, but really, it was ever thus, (ask Stalin about the Caucuses and Hitler's summer vacation, '41).

Disrupting the flow of oil out of the gulf becomes an own goal, Xi will not be happy with choking off his energy source, and as Iran has electronic bits and stuff to support their projected power, and their defence from rowdy stuff inbound, upsetting the customer is probably not a brilliant tactic.

Stuff was apparently moving from China to Iran in mid-2025, though differing opinions on how true and what etc

https://raksha-anirveda.com/china-mo...o-iran-reports
https://www.news.com.au/world/middle...ran/news-story
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-e...racking-images

(I seem to remember China also moved some SAM & radar systems to Serbia by air at about the same time so there may have been multiple things going on)

Back then the cargoes were mostly crude oil. These days there are also a lot of LNG carriers, i.e. liquified methane - and those ships are definitely not the same thing as a old-style crude tanker. Getting crude oil to burn can take a bit of effort, and the spread of fire is relatively slow. Getting LNG to burn, and the rate of spread of fire, is a dramatically different thing. Quatar gas is about 20% of world shipping LNG supplies. Combine all this that is why the LNG spot prices have gone ballistic, the crude oil prices not so much.

I assume that basically UAE and its neighbours are under siege now, and supplies of food and drink and other vital imports are blockaded, and will start to run short?

From India Today: (picture in the spoiler)

A few years back we discussed the issue of Syria blocking a gas pipeline from the Gulf into the Med, and Europe, thanks to Russia's self interest being impacted.

I wonder if, now that Syria is no longer run by the Assad family, such a pipeline will get built and mitigate the risk of some of that export product. (Yes, I know that pipeline projects take a while to get underway and completed).

From the BBC:

Trump says US navy will escort tankers through Strait of Hormuz 'if necessary'published at 19:55

19:55Breaking

I wonder if they wargamed this? Quite an obvious move by the Iranians, which has clearly got the US's attention.

Given the importance of the passage its not beyond the realm of possibility the Gulf states take it on themselves to intervene here too.

It's Reagan's re-flagging deal re-furbished.

for dead_pan: I'll bet that they did indeed wargame this in the JCS planning cell, but getting other governmental departments / cabinet offices on board such a plan can be a real bitch. {I am so glad to be out of that business...}

I have heard a rumor that DJT has proclaimed that the US will insure the ships if the insurance companies won't.

EDIT: OK, a citation from Al Jazeera
OK, we'll see if he's just spouting hot air, or if he's going to back that up.

PP
Totally agree LNG are more volatile and the hulls themselves are expensive due to component parts and build.
However there are still a lot of VLCC chugging around there at around 12knots at best who will require protection which it appears they will get now. It didn’t take long for the penny to drop !
Cheers
Mr Mac

Sheesh! Convoys seem a hugely risky tactic. Big slow ships, not used to convoy dsicipline, big fat Navy assets nursing them. At night perhaps. Smoke screen reinvented. Radar suppression.

What could possibly go wrong? I hope this was wargamed,

The space between the outer hull and inner hull is typically filled with pure nitrogen (not air, which is 80% nitrogen, 20% oxygen) to reduce the chance of fire if one of the inner LNG containers leaks. Won’t help much if hit by a missile.

The pipeline will probably just multiply the number of targets. It’s not like it’s a peaceful and secure part of the world.

That explains why his mates departed quickly in their vehicle and left that guy there by himself manhandling the UXB :)
The Iranian versions have a 40kg warhead, I guess this one would be similar, that will ruin your day at point blank range.

B-52s outbound after completing their first Iran bombing mission. 30 hour round trip.

Audio of Chill 11 a flight of 3 x B-52s outbound joining up up with 4 x KC-46s with Boston ATC yesterday; now audio checking in with Nicosia ATC to join another flight of waiting tankers westbound.

I am presuming direct back home rather than to Fairford.

That's unlikely - all the UAE has a long land border with Saudi Arabia and Oman with some perfectly respectable roads, multilane highways etc linking them together. You can truck in anything that is running short very quickly. Truck drivers will, of course, make a fortune ;)

Friends in Dubai say they're sitting at home and not going out but there's no shortage of anything - other than flights

A quick look at FR24 shows a dramatic increase in aircraft movements around UAE/Saudi/Bahrain. No major missile attacks today from Iran. An unofficial ceasefire with 'talks' or Iran licking their wounds and US/Israel just biding their time?

I read Mr Trump wants the US Navy to convoy ships through the Straits. Surely that would create what, in military circles, is referred to as a target rich environment.

Missile hit on Al Udeid - no casualties


Damage to $1.1 Billion AN/FPS-132 phased array radar claimed by Iran a few days ago now confirmed by Qatar & commercially available satellite imagery.


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HChR3-ua...jpg&name=small

Yes. The current state of drone tech and the Iranian inventory argue for that being an increased risk over the reflagging that went on during the 80's. The year is 2026. Things are a bit more dangerous, thanks to the advances in technology.