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NASA FIRMS showed fire overnight on Bandar Abbas. While we wait for newer satellite imagery already can take a guess at a couple ships that are berthed in this area. IRINS Makran (K-441) 2x Alvand-class frigates IRIS Alborz (F-72) IRIS Sabalan (F-73) 1-2x Moudge-class frigates IRIS Sahand (F-74) IRIS Dena (F-75) 1x Light Information Signal Frigate IRIS Zagros (H-313) 2-4x Kaman/Sina Class FIAC 1-2 Hendijan-class Patrol Boats 1 Minesweeper IRIS Shahin (M-111) In Drydock 1x Kilo Class Submarine IRIS Nooh (902) 2x Hengam Class Landing Ship Heavy 1x Moudge Class Frigate IRIS Taftan |
Two videos to compare
UPDATE: Based on shared footage online, it appears two separate F-15 jets may have crashed — one fully engulfed in flames, the other with fire visible near the right engine only. This could explain Kuwait’s announcement that several jets crashed. |
Gulf of Hormuz update
Hormuz March 1 Recap
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breaking: Brig. Gen. Bahman behmard, recently appointed commander-in-chief of irgc, was killed in a us–israeli airstrike today while inside an underground command centre in sanandaj with other second-tier iranian military leaders. Official confirmation is awaited. |
Assessment of remaining Iranian IRBM stocks.
The IDF released an estimate that Iran had reconstituted its medium range arsenal to approx. 2,500 missiles since the 12 Day war last June. They’ve fired about 250–300 so far and the Air Force has struck around 500 missile related targets. The ones capable of reaching Israel are liquid fueled like the Shahab-3 family (Shahab-3, Ghadr, Emad) and the Khorramshahr series, plus solid-fueled ones like Sejjil, Kheibar Shekan, Haj Qasem, and related Fateh-family extensions. Liquid-fueled Shahab-3, Ghadr, and Emad are larger and heavier measuring 15–18 m long with a 1.25 diameter, weighing anywhere between 17 and 24 tons, while newer solid-fueled ones, especially the Kheibar Shekan and similar types, are more compact -- around 11–13 m long and 1 m diameter -- and weight roughly half at 5-10 tons. Iran uses road-mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) for nearly all of these missiles. They are typically modified commercial heavy trucks with 6x6, 8x8, or 10x10 chassis like Mercedes, MAN, or domestic copies, or extended trailers with hydraulic erectors. Single missile per TEL is standard for most MRBMs given their dimensions, especially the larger liquid-fueled ones. Similarly logistical transport vehicles like the one below typically carry one at a time. It’s unsure what portion of the 500 strikes aimed at Iranian missile capabilities targeted MRBM TELs and transport vehicles, or other missile targets such as short range, production, or logistical assets, but the MRBM arsenal is largely stored in hardened, deeply buried ‘missile cities’ so it’s mostly an above surface missile hunting job as documented in in the IDF update below (qt). Assuming that only half of the those strikes destroyed a single MRBM to establish a reasonable low end estimate, Iranian forces have already expended or lost 500 (say, 250 launched and 250 destroyed) or more from their estimated 2,500 magazine depth. At the current intensity of the conflict, the remaining 2,000 missile arsenal, capable of reaching Israel, would be spent in 5 days or so. On face value, this would explain the government’s plan to open airspace for commercial flights by Friday next week. However, since the stated objective of IRGC commanders and Iranian officials is to outlast the Israeli-US campaign, it is likely to pace itself rather than attempt to sustain its current intensity, or launch a mass salvo. If the goal is survival and denial of the enemies coercive aims, then preserving arsenal to continue the fight longer is a strategic imperative. Further constraining the regime, is a heavily degraded TEL inventory creating a salvo generation bottleneck. Moreover, any launch from inside a subterranean launch site through portals or silos leaves a thermal and electromagnetic signature that overhead ISR can quickly detect and that can subsequently be attacked. Taken together, it is likely that the war will settle into a slower drip of a dozen or two missiles launched at Israel, unless a regime survival tripwire is hit and a decision is taken to use what’s left or risk losing the opportunity to attack. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12045317)
Two videos to compare
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4 Weeks
So Trump is saying this might last 4 weeks, I think this may be optimistic so what happens if it keeps going? Having observed Trump in the past he will probably get bored of it, claim some sort of victory and pull out, now he has started it he needs to finish it!
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Originally Posted by Diff Tail Shim
(Post 12045345)
Mid air collision?
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Originally Posted by Steepclimb
(Post 12045355)
No, there's another video of one of the jets taking a hit from something or other, probably a 'friendy' missile.
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 12044998)
BV |
CT
Originally Posted by Complex_Type
(Post 12045370)
Don't need to brag too much about using a million dollar ASRAAM to take down a $50k drone. That's an economic defeat.
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What are the odds of Fairford now coming into play for bomber ops? Personally I think its unlikely - the US won't be too happy with any movements being micro-reported by the Brit spotterati.
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US has now confirmed that 3 x F-15Es were shot down in a friendly fire incident. All 6 aircrew are confirmed as safe.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — US military says Kuwait ‘mistakenly shot down’ 3 American F-15E Strike Eagles aircraft during combat. |
The presidential jet B767 of Netanyahu is evacuated to Berlin where it is parked.
Germany is one of the main founders of the ICC in The Hague. Netanyahu has an arrest warrent against him by the ICC. Will there be a risk to put a chain on this Jet? Falck |
Originally Posted by Complex_Type
(Post 12045370)
Don't need to brag too much about using a million dollar ASRAAM to take down a $50k drone. That's an economic defeat.
This is not an economic war. |
USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Activity (Coronet 045E) Operation Lions Roar / Epic Fury - D+2 2 March - 0905z McDonnell Douglas F-15E Strike Eagle 7x "SJ" 87-0193 - TABOR 61 "SJ" 88-1704 - TABOR 62 "SJ" 89-0505 - TABOR 63 "SJ" 90-0229 - TABOR 64 "SJ" 87-0177 - TABOR 65 "SJ" 88-1670 - TABOR 66 "MO" 87-0209 - TABOR 25 Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 1x #AE023B 57-1440 - GOLD 05 Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 1x #AE63CB 21-46095 - GOLD 06 Six more F-15E Strike Eagles from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base have departed RAF Lakenheath this morning for the Middle East. TABOR 61-66 flt is supported by GOLD 05 from RAF Mildenhall and GOLD 06 from Ramstein. TABOR 25 appears to have been an airspare, and has returned to Lakenheath. |
Iranian forces have reportedly begun to target energy infrastructure in the region, with an Iranian drone attacking the Doha West power station in Kuwait this morning, setting a fuel tank on fire. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f803c5b003.png |
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
(Post 12045382)
This is not an economic war. |
Pictures of at least 3 of the downed F-15E are emerging as they were picked up.
All survived but not uninjured one seems to have lost a few finger on one hand. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....468072d3f5.png |
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