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West Coast 19th March 2026 17:15


Originally Posted by DogTailRed2 (Post 12055065)
Prep for ground assault?

Can't discount that, however searching out launch sites, mobile launchers and drone hubs would have the same look.


Video Mixdown 19th March 2026 17:16


Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan (Post 12054957)
Maybe an all out invasion is the way to go. US,IDF and possibly Gulf Arab states. After the regime is removed a new Iranian military could be created. Regime loyalists could be hunted out. The Crown Prince could be the new Shah, either that or a democratic system with possibly the new Shah being just a figurehead. This would be a great gift to the Iranian people by removing the wicked regime from power. The only nation state threat in the region would be gone once and for all, replaced by a new partner nation and friend.

I think we're entering the realms of fantasy here. Invaders may come with the best of intentions, but are soon seen as just invaders. How many dead US soldiers are you prepared to suffer in an attempt to create the nirvana you dream of?

SpazSinbad 19th March 2026 17:17

I'll look for further reports however this one is the first seen on the subject....
US jet makes emergency landing after being hit by Iranian fire 20 Mar 2026
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other...re/ar-AA1YZwgD
"A U.S. fighter jet was forced to make an emergency landing in the Middle East after it was reportedly struck by Iranian fire. "We are aware of reports that a U.S. F-35 aircraft conducted an emergency landing at a regional U.S airbase after flying a combat mission over Iran,” Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command, told The Independent. “The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins added. “This incident is under investigation." The jet is believed to have been hit by Iranian fire, two unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter told CNN. The attack would mark the first time Iranian forces have struck an American aircraft since the war broke out late last month...."

CNN same report: US F-35 damaged by suspected Iranian fire makes emergency landing, sources say | CNN Politics

fdr 19th March 2026 17:28

We are definitely not in Kansas, Toto...

Status:
Having torn a scab off a suppurating sore, the US has a problem that it is now dealing with the gangrene following its actions. Multiple actors sit in the wings LMAO-ROFL at the predicament that has arisen, but in the background they all have a vested interest in the outcome,

Team Red
Red-1
Vlad's is the additional instability is in his favour since his best mate decided that it was time to refill Vlad's war chest. Thems' gotta be brilliant kompromat pikkies, has to involve a goat or a stoat or something to justify that, but, nevertheless, Vlad has been handed a lifeline. Well done. Not sure that Ukraine would agree with the tactic.
Red-2
Xi is not too pleased with the squeeze of his strategic reserves which were around 120 days or so. If the punters of China start going onto an enforced diet due to the impending famine conditions that will arise, then Xi's life insurance will probably take a bit of a hike. Taking on Taiwan needs a strategic energy and food reserve, that is not going to be going in the right direction at this time.
Team White
EU
Smart play to stay neutral, until it doesn't work anymore. EU will be hit fairly hard by another energy shock, they weaned off Vlad juice, and there is now a bit of a weanerizing going on with gulf oil. That will hurt, it is only when, not if.
Team Red-White-Blue
Constitutes the USA and those locations where the USA has forward operational bases. And Israel.
Plinking the top dogs of your opponent is either going to win in minutes or result in the next 300 year war. I think we can safely say we are going to get tired of so much winning. Putting the world's economy into the juicer would not have been my pick for ways to earn a Nobel peace prize, but it sure may win the Order of Lenin from Vlad.

Continued whack-a-mole that is not totally debilitating is not likely to get a regime change going, at least, not in Iran, (Suspect that the exits are being lubricated for the convenors of this spectacle). As long as Iran can conduct BAU while interdicting oil shipments to others, there is little prospect for stability. Kharg Island accounts for 90% of all oil exports from Iran, and shutting that down is the fastest way with least casualties to alter the chess board. Boots on the ground would be confronted with the largest concentration of fire power since the Mayor of Hiroshima's bad day out. Iran is in the process of striking gulf states oil infrastructure, and it would appear to be time to declare a DTG for a NOTAM on the opening of the Kharg Island bombing range. The response from China, India, and Russia will be shrill enough that a high bypass filter may be in order, but, it might get some suggestions flowing into whoever is the last man standing in the sausage machine that is Irans line of succession.

Absent debilitating Irans economic capacity, the options A and B remain and one is just not in the nature of the beast, and the other is not going to buff out readily. Putting Irans leaders in a position where they can be removed by the population without the level of murder and mayhem that has occurred on occasions when the populate has risen up would be a good outcome. Right now, reliance on any oil from Iran or the gulf in the near future would seem to be an act of faith.











Expatrick 19th March 2026 17:46


Originally Posted by judyjudy (Post 12055071)
If only Iran had complied fully with said treaty………

And yet...


The Trump administration certified in April 2017 and in July 2017 that Iran was complying with the deal.

212man 19th March 2026 17:54


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 12055078)
I think we're entering the realms of fantasy here. Invaders may come with the best of intentions, but are soon seen as just invaders. How many dead US soldiers are you prepared to suffer in an attempt to create the nirvana you dream of?

That’s a very diplomatic and filtered response!

ORAC 19th March 2026 18:28

Reference the F-35. Remember that the F-35 is not a fully stealthy airplane like the F-22 or B-2. Designed to keep within a budget its stealth is optimised to the front hemisphere - where it would expect most attacks, and is patchy in the rear hemisphere. And of course it generates an enormous amount of heat and struggles to get rid of it - an issue trying to addressed during it’s future. engine and systems upgrade. In this case the F-35 seems to have been hit by a rear hemisphere IR guided missile.

In short this does not reveal any unknown failure in the F-35 design, you can expect the odd loss in combat, all the design does is minimise the risk - not eliminate it.

And it got home……


​​​​​​​The U.S. F-35 apparently didn’t take a direct hit, which allowed it to escape and make an emergency landing at the nearest regional base. However, the jet may have sustained damage from the SAM blast.

It looks like the Iranians employed an infrared-guided (IR) surface-to-air missile with optical or electro-optical tracking to engage the jet. In this scenario, the F-35’s stealth features wouldn’t offer much protection against a missile homing on heat and visual signatures.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....15c6a9b7d.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[email protected] 19th March 2026 18:35

At what point will the US throw Bibi under the bus and use his attack on the gas field as an excuse that he has gone too far unilaterally?

Then they can blame poor Israeli intelligence for over-egging the threat in the first place and walk away without actually needing to prove a victory.

Any other off-ramps seem vanishingly small.

[email protected] 19th March 2026 18:37


Originally Posted by Expatrick (Post 12055093)
And yet...

and also -

On 8 May 2018, the U.S. officially withdrew from the JPCOA after Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum ordering reinstatement of sanctions.[334][335][336][337] The IAEA continued to certify Iranian compliance.[338] Other signatories said they would comply with the deal even absent the U.S.

albatross 19th March 2026 19:00

War is just an extension of failed diplomacy
 
Hard to keep politics off this thread when the “war” is being run from the White House, a make up room in the Pentagon, Air Force 1 and various golf venues. Not to speculate but perhaps also from some VLCBRs . ( Very Large Corporate Board Rooms )

Remember when Politicians gave simple directives and got the heck out of the way?


On February 12, 1944, General
Dwight D. Eisenhower
received a formal directive from the Anglo-American Combined Chiefs of Staff (CCS) that officially launched the
The primary mission, as stated in the directive, was as follows:"You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with the other United Nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces".



9 lives 19th March 2026 19:35


The U.S. F-35 apparently didn’t take a direct hit, which allowed it to escape and make an emergency landing at the nearest regional base. However, the jet may have sustained damage from the SAM blast.
Ahhh... but:


Pete Hegseth said Thursday morning that the US is “winning decisively” and that Iran’s air defenses have been “flattened.”

mahogany bob 19th March 2026 19:55

Thanks nonsense

never was very good at maths ! But that was a howler.

Donald exaggerating - never ! But I think any useful Iranian resistance to the aerial onslaught HAS by now been well and truly ‘decimated ‘.no matter how you work it out !
I certainly wouldn’t like to be on the receiving end

Decimate means
to destroy, kill, or remove a large percentage of something, or to drastically reduce in size/number, such as in "the plague decimated the population". While originally meaning to kill one in ten, its modern usage focuses on high-level destruction. Synonyms include annihilate, devastate, eradicate, and wipe out.

AI

CharlieMike 19th March 2026 20:42

I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".

Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?

Wokkafans 19th March 2026 21:18

[url=https://x.com/qatarenergy/status/2034726978637471993?s=20]
[/ame]



Providing an update on the damage from the missile attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City

H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue

- Extensive damage to our production facilities will take up to five years to repair and will compel us to declare long-term force majeure

QatarEnergy expects the damage to its Ras Laffan Industrial City caused by missile strikes, which occurred on Wednesday 18 March 2026, and in the early hours of Thursday 19 March 2026, to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.

Providing an update on the damage to the facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, His Excellency Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy, said “I am relieved to confirm that no one was injured by these unjustified and senseless attacks, which weren’t just an attack on the State of Qatar but attacks on global energy security and stability. This was an attack on all of us who stand for development and human progress that is sustained by a fair, reliable, and secure access to energy.”

The attacks damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) producing Trains 4 and 6 totaling 12.8 million tons per annum (MTPA) of production, representing approximately 17% of Qatar’s exports. Train 4 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (66%) and ExxonMobil (34%), and Train 6 is a joint venture between QatarEnergy (70%) and ExxonMobil (30%).

His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi said: “The damage sustained by the LNG facilities will take between three to five years to repair. The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium. This means that we will be compelled to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.”

The attacks also targeted the Pearl GTL (Gas-to-Liquids) facility, a production sharing agreement operated by Shell, that converts natural gas into high-quality cleaner burning drop-in fuels and produces base oils used to make premium engine oils and lubricants, and paraffins and waxes.

“The damage caused to one of the two trains at Pearl GTL is being assessed and is expected to be offline for a minimum of one year” His Excellency Minister Al-Kaabi added.

It should be noted that there will be a loss of associated product production due to this outage as follows:

· Condensates: 18.6 million barrels which is around 24% of Qatar’s exports
· LPG: 1.281 MT which is around 13% of Qatar’s exports
· Naphtha: 0.594 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Sulfur: 0.18 MT which is around 6% of Qatar’s exports
· Helium: 309.54 MCFA which is around 14% of Qatar’s exports

His Excellency the Minister of State for Energy Affairs, the President and CEO of QatarEnergy paid tribute to the Qatari military and security forces and to the energy sector emergency response teams whose courage and extraordinary professionalism ensured the situation was contained quickly and safely.

tdracer 19th March 2026 21:26


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 12055194)
H.E. Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi: The missile attacks reduced Qatar’s LNG export capacity by 17% and caused an estimated loss of $20 billion in annual revenue

Makes a few well positioned Patriot batteries sound positively cheap...

ORAC 19th March 2026 21:33


I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".

Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?
Yes.

It means that Trump now owes him a favour, especially if he has a paper trail detailing the background briefing - and of course a copy of the ATO Frag.

SWBKCB 19th March 2026 21:52


Originally Posted by CharlieMike (Post 12055179)
I see in Netanyahu's press conference this evening...asked if Israel told Trump about the recent attack on Iranian gas fields, Netanyahu says that "Israel acted alone".

Won't this have all been coordinated through a normal ATO process, which means the US will have had full awareness of the targets prior to the strike? Or is Israel doing their own thing some of the time?

What does full awareness mean here? Would in-theatre operational awareness equate to White House awareness?

ORAC 19th March 2026 22:03

As a follow up to the charts showing Europe only buys about 5% of Gulf oil output as opposed to Asia at about 90% - making keeping Hormuz open very much an Asian problem, it seems the same holds true for Qatari LNG….

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....536142d63f.png

[email protected] 19th March 2026 22:07

There is awareness in the Whitehouse?????????? surely shome mistake.:)

dead_pan 19th March 2026 22:11

Netanyahu pretty much stated that it was mission accomplished during his press conference tonight.


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