|
We (@TheGoodISIS) released a comprehensive study today jam packed with satellite imagery that analyzed all the nuclear related facilities targeted during this 2026 phase of the Iran war. This is an incredibly important study and really shows the power of open-source intel. We used satellite imagery to assess the damage done to Irans nuclear program. Let me be clear, Irans program has suffered widespread destruction and devastation. Many facilities related to the research and development process involved in actually building a nuclear weapon (weaponization) have been destroyed or heavily damaged. Scientists have been killed, eliminating their tacit knowledge/know-how that was built up over years of experience and must be relearned and retrained in a new generation of experts. And other factors occurred, but those are discussed in the report. This is all on too of the fact that Iran does not maintain a uranium enrichment program, which was destroyed in June 2025 (although that could be rebuilt at huge expense). These new factors will undoubtedly extend the time needed to finish a nuclear weapon and raise the chance of failure if such a decision is taken (which would be incredibly risky for Iran and have no clear guarantee of success). Ultimately, we found that current IC assessment (as reported by Reuters) that since the June 2025 war, the amount of time the program has been set back by hasn’t changed is a very hard assessment to defend or justify given the facts we outline in the report. When looking at the scale of the new damage and new sites hit, especially those involved in nuclear weaponization work, it’s its clear that the damage is significant and pushes back the timetable. We would love for the IC to release how they reached their conclusion that it remained the same few month timetable to a bomb. To be clear, a pathway to a bomb still exists for Iran, we see it now as a very dubious and increasingly challenging pathway. What worries us still is the status of the enriched uranium stockpiles. As long as the enriched uranium remains within Iran and Iran insists it has a right to enrich uranium and rebuild its destroyed program, a longterm pathway to a nuclear weapon is an option. Iran must give up its enriched uranium stocks and abandon its enrichment program. Pickaxe Mountain and the status of the newly declared enrichment plant in the tunnel complex at Esfahan adds further worry. All of this must be dealt with during negotiations, dismantled, and then strictly verified and monitored by the IAEA to ensure no cheating occurs. P.s. I added some teaser images below. Read our full COMPREHENSIVE imagery report here: https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis...92124_gzfh.pdf https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1ba7f0c115.png https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4283bd66ea.png https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....afc08b5ca1.png |
An couple of interesting reports from Qatari Al Jazeera, the first is regarding the stance of the UAE and the other Gulf States and the US friction that appears to be building tween the Allies in the region
This second is in regard to the Iranian ships Touska and Hasna that have been attacked by the USN, and other aspects of shipping within the Strait Both of the above have been released today, within the last few minutes to be exact. They do bring questions about what exactly is going on, whether or not the ceasefire is holding and what the relative "sides" are thinking and doing. Everything seems to be very tangled, to put it lightly. |
There seems to be some confusion in regard to whether or not two USN ships were hit this week during the first day of Project Freedom and whether it was the USN or UAE that attacked various places in Iran yesterday during the transit of 3 US warships through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Maritime Executive via CBS, USS Mason and USS Truxtun were hit whilst they escorted ships on the initial attempt of Project Freedom. Now we are told that the reason behind halting Project Freedom was issues tween the US and Saudi Arabia, which incidently do not seem to be completely settled yet. However, you do have to wonder if the halting of Project Freedom was part due to Saudi Arabia and part due to two USN ships being hit...and the issue that the US is possibly vetoing any operational decisions that might place US military in danger, specifically ships as noted in post 5761 above. Maritime Executive have also raised the question of who shot what last night. The general media led by social media have said that the US opened fire on Qeshm, Bandar Abbas, Minab, Gachin, Bandar e Khamir and Sirik. However, there is an Iranian news agency - Tasnim - who saying that it wasn't the US but that it was the UAE who mounted the attacks. The US keeps repeating that the ceasefire is holding, Iran claim that it isn't....if the UAE have taken it upon themselves to attack Iran independantly, that makes for an entirely new mess. Amidst Ceasefire, U.S. Launches New Strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm (Maritime Executive - May 7, 2026) Tasnim News initially attributed the attacks not to the U.S., but to the UAE, which has previously played a supporting role for U.S. forces but has generally refrained from frontline combat. “If this issue is confirmed, the UAE will pay the cost of its hostile action,” Tasnim stated. |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12083176)
...if the UAE have taken it upon themselves to attack Iran independantly, that makes for an entirely new mess. )
|
Tankers and other Iranian ships subject to sanction by the US.....
We already know about Touska (containership) that was disabled by the USN firing at it and rendering the engineroom severely damaged as a result. Then came along Hasna which I mentioned earlier today that had its rudder effectively amputated by an F/A-18 from the Abraham Lincoln. Now another tanker has met with a slightly confusing and bizarre situation. The Iranians call her Ocean Koi, but according to AIS her name is Jin Li (ex Ocean Koi). She was apparently stopped under US sanction by the USN in the Gulf of Oman but has now been seized by Iran under a judicial order. I have to admit to being slightly puzzled by this, so I hunted down the Iranian news agency Tasnim to see if they could make sense of what was going on with the ship......and frankly, it is as clear as mud. Iranian Navy Seizes Violating Oil Tanker in Sea of Oman (Tansim News Agency, Iran - May 8th, 2026) The ship in question is currently showing as being off the Sohar anchorage, Oman https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4c86bc58b0.png |
I suspect that KSA & GCC (after Trump) initially swallowed the line that regime change would take place shortly after Feb 28 — making life better for all around including Iranians long under the boots of the IRGC.
Didn't happen. Iran has little capacity to directly retaliate against Israel and the US; so has to target what it can reach: Hormuz and KSA & GCC infrastructure. We now see KSA & GCC becoming choosy as to what missions they will allow in their airspace as they realize that they will remain stuck dealing with the IRGC that will hit them whenever Israel or the US hits Iran. Nobody likes being consigned to collateral damage fodder. |
The latest from Sal
. |
The Maritime Executive are reporting that two more Iranian tankers have been disabled by F/A-18 aircraft in the Gulf of Oman, this time from USS George H W Bush, these disablements have been confirmed by CENTCOM. No names have been released of the tankers as yet, but the tactics have changed in that instead or hitting the rudder or engineroom, the latest method to disable the ships is to shoot their stacks off. No updates on any of the now 3 tankers to have had parts shot off them in regard to casualties or if they have been seized by USN personnel. I shall keep an eye on this and update as / when information is released.
Further to this story can be found : U.S. Navy Fighter Jet Disables Two More Iranian Tankers (Maritime Executive - May 8, 2026) It should be noted that the stack is not the cleanest part of the ship, shooting them off the ship can potentially cause pollution in what is a very fragile area when it comes to sealife. As to the Strait of Hormuz, nothing appears to be moving in either direction this morning. The Strait remains closed to all traffic, the only ships moving are small cargo ships belonging to Iran that are in the Khasab-Larak / Ramchah line. There has still been no sighting on AIS of the CMA CGM San Antonio, which is concerning. One slightly unusual aspect are that ships (and there are a few hundred of them) that are using Mina Saqr, Ras-al-Khaimah, Umm Al Quwain, Sharjah, Dubai and Jebel Ali anchorages have almost all gone dark on AIS, possibly a case of if they cannot be seen, they cannot be hit should the hostilities restart. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5ecdcf800b.png Traffic seems to be moving freely through Bab-al-Mandab. No incidents have been reported, it does have to be noted that there are 3 or 4 patrol type ships out of Djibouti in the area. There has been a report of a dhow that had been taken by Somalian pirates and had been confirmed as being used to attack general shipping in the Gulf of Aden / Bab-al-Mandab area has now been abandoned by the piracy group due to the increase of civilian and military activity working to stop such incidents. The dhow had effectively been the mother ship for skiffs and at least one VLCC approached at the end of April this year. On the image of Bab-el-Mandab below taken a few minutes ago, the pale blue arrows are Djibouti patrols https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9691a3bf17.png |
At the other end of the Persian Gulf, an extremely large oil slick has been seen via satellite close to Kharg Island. Images, including the one below, were captured by European Copernicus Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 satellites tween May 6th and May 8th. Estimates of 3000 barrels worth of oil stretching for more than 20 miles.
Large oil slick detected off key Iranian oil depot, satellite images show - (Khaleej Times - May 9th, 2026) https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....62550ebb0e.png It should be noted that Kharg is very close to protected wetland and nature reserves, this slick is endangering those areas. The US is not denying that they have hit the island and Iran have not admitted releasing oil on purpose....both are very much possible. |
This should of course be balanced against the many times in recent years when Iran has boarded and seized ships transiting the Gulf and used drones to attack shipping within and without the Hormuz Strait.
|
Another Iranian ship, Vina, has managed to, so far, evade the US blockade. She is an LPG / chemical tanker currently off Fujairah anchorage. A second LPG tanker has also been spotted but remains unnamed that has also, so far, evaded the US blockade. Both ships carry Iranian LPG from Iran to Yemen and are in ballast and effectively on their way home. Both ships were spotted by TankerTrackers and their information available widely, so perhaps the USN will intercept them at some point before they can enter the Strait of Hormuz for homeports in Iran.
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship. Vina, seen below, on AIS May 6, 2026. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6348f5c6be.png |
It should be noted that Kharg is very close to protected wetland and nature reserves, this slick is endangering those areas. The US is not denying that they have hit the island and Iran have not admitted releasing oil on purpose....both are very much possible. |
Originally Posted by [email protected]
(Post 12083514)
Are the Iranians really likely to mess on their own doorstep though?
So, potentially opening the stopcocks on the pipelines and releasing oil could be a way of not only releasing the pressure but also a way of contaminating the sea around Kharg Island as some form of defence, perhaps....afterall oil on water will burn, hypothetically any attack on the island that falls short maybe ignites the floating slick. Anything is possible. The environmental damage will be immense regardless of reason for the slick or who is responsible for it. |
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!? |
to make money for themselves and to save money for shipowners of course
|
Originally Posted by KiloB
(Post 12083548)
Note....Vina is an ex Maersk (Maersk Humber) owned ship now registered in Botswana, she was built in 1998. Oddly she is also listed as named as Valley. Both names share the same IMO number, thus the same ship.
You do have to wonder why totally landlocked countries are able to register ships!? |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12083521)
Why Does It Matter if Iran Shuts In its Oil Wells? (Maritime Executive - May 6, 2026).
|
There are a couple of movements in the Strait of Hormuz.
One is an Iranian owned / flagged oil products tanker, Maoming. She left Bandar Abbas on April 29 and only just activated her AIS, she is going to Asaluyeh in Iran. The other is an LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, owned by Nakilat Shipping Qatar, flagged Marshall Islands. She left the Fateh Oil Field (UAE) on May 5th and is going to Port Qasim in Pakistan. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....889f56e044.png https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9497c996b6.png |
BonnieLass
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster. |
Originally Posted by Geriaviator
(Post 12083608)
BonnieLass
Just for info, oil on water is unwilling to burn as the Royal Navy discovered in the Torrey Canyon disaster which sent thousands of tons of crude into the English Channel. My friend Giles, one of the Buccaneer pilots who attacked with incendiaries and napalm, told me that the oil certainly burned around the ordnance but "the damn stuff just wouldn't stay alight no matter what we tried". Thanks for your hard work in keeping us in touch with shipping aspects of Trump's disaster. There are various opinions as to the type of oil....is it raw crude from a leak in the oil pipeline to the nearby oil field (it last sprang a leak in late 2024)...is it refined oil or oil product...no-one has managed to identify it or where it came from as yet. It is heading towards Saudi Arabian territorial waters if it remains spreading in the current direction. Whatever type of oil it is and where it originated, it needs urgent dispersal treatment by someone to prevent further damage. |
Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12083597)
Very interesting read - thanks, BonnieLass . Presumably the same problem applies to the other Gulf states too? Are there any empty tankers trapped in the Gulf or have they all been filled over the last two months?
One thing that has become apparent in regard to the other Gulf States, that the overland pipeline networks are working (the Saudi pipelines were damaged but are now fully operational again). In Saudi Arabia there is a crude pipeline from Al-Jubail on the Persian Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea and a natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline from Shedgum near Riyadh to Yanbu, Red Sea. There is also a network of pipelines from Ras Laffan, Qatar (Persian Gulf) to Fujairah, UAE (Gulf of Oman). Although these pipelines will not match the capacity of tankers sailing through the Gulf of Hormuz, they can at least get supplies of oil, oil products, LPG etc out to safe ports in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman thus allowing empty tankers to be filled safely and permit safe passage to other countries. Iran do not have that access to the Red Sea and, obviously, their access to the Gulf of Oman is curtailed by the USN blockade of Iranian ports. Hence why they are struggling with the capacity of oil and oil products and LPG in regard to storage / transportation. They do have one pipeline that runs from Goreh, near Kharg Island to Mobarak Mount near Jusk on the Gulf of Oman, it is inside the USN blockade and is still under construction, so cannot help with the movement of oil yet. |
I was a Dartmouth cadet, serving on a mine-swiper when theTorrey Canyon went aground. We spent several days spraying detergent onto the spill and I remember it as a very unpleasant experience. I believe that it was later discovered that the detergent did more damage to wildlife than the oil.
Mog |
Not sure if this is defiance but the LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, is still on active AIS and she is taking the pre-war route through the Strait of Homuz and not the proverbial toll booth route to the north of Larak Island. She is probably fully loaded and it almost feels like defiance knowing that if she gets hit the implications of that would be enormous. She is due into Port Qasim, Pakistan on May 11, her speed is constant at just under 17 knots. Hopefully she and her crew will make it in one piece. If she does make it unmolested by Iran or the USN it could potentially give other ship owners / crews similar courage to push back against the two warring regimes and get their ships out too
Good luck to her and her crew https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3bd1dee7f3.png |
Anything is possible. The environmental damage will be immense regardless of reason for the slick or who is responsible for it. |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12083677)
Not sure if this is defiance but the LNG tanker, Al Kharaitiyat, is still on active AIS and she is taking the pre-war route through the Strait of Homuz and not the proverbial toll booth route to the north of Larak Island. She is probably fully loaded and it almost feels like defiance knowing that if she gets hit the implications of that would be enormous. She is due into Port Qasim, Pakistan on May 11, her speed is constant at just under 17 knots. Hopefully she and her crew will make it in one piece. If she does make it unmolested by Iran or the USN it could potentially give other ship owners / crews similar courage to push back against the two warring regimes and get their ships out too
Good luck to her and her crew https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3bd1dee7f3.png I really hope she makes it safely out. |
HMS Dragon is now confirmed as being part of the anglo French / British carrier group headed by French carrier Charles de Gaulle, there are approximately 40 nations involved in the task force, both NATO and non NATO. They will assist in safe transit work enabling ships to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz. However their work will not start until a peace deal tween all combatants has been signed and adhered to.
LNG carrier, Al Kharaitiyat, is continuing her passage through the Strait of Hormuz, she has now, however, gone dark on AIS. Hopefully she and her crew will make it through during tonight and will reactivate AIS once she reaches safe waters. It is a big risk taking the pre-war route and bypassing the Iranian Larak Island toll booth route. No other vessels appear to be active, least not on AIS, through the Strait. It will be late evening there now. The Mina Saqr, Umm Quwain, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah, Dubai and Jebel Ali anchorages in the Persian Gulf all have a fair amount of activity, most of the ships have reactivated their AIS compared to this time yesterday. https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4a9223f71d.png The Dibba, Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Shinas, Sohar and Muscat anchorages on the Gulf of Oman remain active and relatively peaceful with a few Iranian ekranoplan and skiffs in the vicinity. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....afda115db0.png The Gulf of Aden and Bab-el-Mandab are still flowing freely without any reported incidents https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....154b496b68.png I shall check on the LNG carrier, Al Kharaitiyat, currently in transit of the Strait of Hormuz throughout the night and report any changes to her route, if she stays dark, then I shall check on her progress in the morning....and hopefully CMA CGM San Antonio will make an appearance too as she due into Mundra, India early tomorrow morning. |
Centcom yesterday:
TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. forces disabled M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, May 8, prior to both vessels entering an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman in violation of the ongoing U.S. blockade. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) enforced blockade measures against two Iranian-flagged unladen oil tankers attempting to pull into an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman. A U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) disabled both tankers after firing precision munitions into their smokestacks, preventing the non-compliant ships from entering Iran. U.S. forces also disabled Iranian-flagged M/T Hasna, May 6, as it attempted to sail to an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. An F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) disabled the unladen oil tanker's rudder by firing several rounds from a 20mm cannon gun. All three vessels are no longer transiting to Iran. "U.S. forces in the Middle East remain committed to full enforcement of the blockade of vessels entering or leaving Iran," said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander. "Our highly trained men and women in uniform are doing incredible work." Multiple commercial vessels have been disabled and more than 50 have been redirected by CENTCOM forces to ensure compliance. https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/...890858681?s=20 Based on what CENTCOM is detailing in terms of today's (2026-05-08) actions, we can now specify that both NITC's SEA STAR III (9569205) and SEVDA (9172040) had actually infiltrated the blockade perimeter two days ago; 2026-05-06. SEA STAR III was seen 162nm (300km) west of the line. Third tanker was HASNA (9212917); yesterday (2026-05-07) off Shinas, Oman...... UPDATE: The very first place we suspected to look today now confirmed our expectations. Both SEA STAR III and SEVDA are in the anchorage east of the Bandar-e Jask peninsula, Iran; with 25.62448, 57.93673 as their average coordinates. SEA STAR III has a tug behind her. A fire continues to rage on SEVDA. https://x.com/tom_bike/status/2053099856344777069?s=20 3 large US hit Iran crude carriers spotted TODAY burning in E Jask Bay at 25.6139, 57.9483 Suezmax burning bad, firefighting boat near smoking good VLCC & fuel leaking from smoldering VLCC. Right in front of IRGC naval base. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....551595dddb.png https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a36841f2ba.png https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....41ed7d127a.png https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....16b280f0ac.png |
Where one dares to tread.....others are following.
First the good news.......LNG carrier, Al Kharaitiyat, has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested and is now well on her way to Port Qasim, Pakistan. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9856f3522f.png Her safe transit seems to have given others the same idea with three more escapee's and even an Iranian flagged ship returning to her home port in the opposite direction. Taban 1 is an Iranian containership on her way into the Strait from Charbahar, Iran to Bushehr, Iran. MDL Toofan is a bulk carrier on her way out from Ras Al Khair, Saudi Arabia to Rio Grande, Brazil. Fortune Gas is an LPG carrier out of Hidd, Bahrain without destination listed currently. AB Power is a bitumen tanker out of Sharjah, UAE, to an incorrect destination, says Basrah, Iraq which is the other direction to where she is heading. It is also all flowing well in Bab-el-Mandab / Gulf of Aden, no reports there of any incidents. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....91aa8cce64.png https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bb8f6e12be.png https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....271e8c283f.png https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1baadebd05.png Now the bad news.......there has been an attack against a bulk carrier off Doha, Qatar overnight. Said to have been hit by an unknown projectile that caused a small fire which was quickly extinguished. No injuries or environmental impact reported as yet. I shall see if I can find her identity etc this morning. https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....de256a86f4.png Finally there is still no news in regard to CMA CGM San Antonio, she is still not on AIS and she has not shown up in Mundra where she is now overdue. I shall keep looking for her. |
More Iranian vessels attacked by USN F/A-18 aircraft have now had identities confirmed. I already mentioned Hasna above in the thread that had the rudder shot off. Two more vessels are :
Sevda, a VLCC spotted on AIS a month ago as she exited the Strait of Malacca. She had been running oil transits without AIS when hit off Jask, Iran. Another Iranian tanker, Sea Star III, was last seen on AIS over a month ago, again exiting the Strait of Malacca. There are no reports on casualties onboard or environmental damage. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....15169aaa2a.png https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0d03791675.png Other ships of interest that are either entering the region or within a safe distance... The US flagged Ocean Trader along with a currently unidentified Arleigh Burke type destroyer have been seen at Diego Garcia in recent days. The USNS Alan Shepard has made transit through the Strait of Malacca within the last 24 hours (her AIS is active). Holding the blockade line tween Ras-Al-Hadd in Oman and Charbahar, Iran are USS Abraham Lincoln, USS George HW Bush, USS New Orleans, two Arleigh Burke class, and two Independence class. |
Much is said about the state of readiness in regard to Iran. Throughout history, combatants on both sides of the divide have often stated that the other side has been wiped out / destroyed / obliterated etc etc and that has been no different with Iran vs US / Israel.
Whilst monitoring the Iranian news agency, Tansim, several statements have been made in the last few hours that could / should be taken seriously. It is absolutely clear that Iran have the ability to attack merchant and military shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. This is from the Iranian Brigadier General Mousavi last night : “The (IRGC) Aerospace Force’s missiles and drones have been locked onto American targets in the region and the vessels of the aggressor enemy.” “We are awaiting the order to fire,” There is a similar warning from the Iranian Navy this morning : Warning! Any aggression against the oil tankers and commercial vessels of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a heavy attack on one of the American centers in the region and the enemy’s ships, Maybe the Iranians are bluffing but given the attacks on shipping in recent days, it might pay the US to treat it seriously (ie no late night rantings or threats via social media) |
A small update via Manilla Bulletin in regard to CMA CGM San Antonio. There were 7 crew injured in the attack on the ship on May 5th, 2026. Three are said to be in a serious condition and remain in hospital, the other 4 received treatment for minor injuries. Still no word regarding the whereabouts of the ship or her condition.
Seven Pinoy seafarers injured in Strait of Hormuz drone attack, DMW confirms (Manilla Bulletin - May 7, 2026) |
War now spreading to the subsea cables. Not sure if Iran has the assets to actually cut or affect them.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2053313529495839151?s=20 Iran wants permits, fees, and Iranian-company control over the internet cables.* On May 9, IRGC-linked Iranian state media published a detailed regulatory proposal for the seven undersea fiber-optic cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The cables are the digital arteries of the Gulf. AAE-1, FALCON, TGN-Gulf, SEA-ME-WE and three others carry significant Europe-Asia-Gulf internet and financial-data traffic.** Per Fars News Agency and Tasnim, the proposal would require foreign cable operators to obtain Iranian permits, pay tolls and fees, comply with Iranian law, and assign all management, repair, and maintenance to Iranian companies. Per Telegeography submarine cable maps, all seven cables were deliberately routed through Omani territorial waters to avoid Iran. The cables Iran wants to charge for were specifically built to bypass Iranian sovereignty. Iran is not just operating the Strait. Iran is signaling it wants to operate the bandwidth too. Same operating model. Permits. Fees. Designated lanes. Exclusive Iranian regulatory control. This is media advocacy, not a government decree. No Iranian law has been issued. UNCLOS transit-passage protections, Omani jurisdiction, and the fact that cable repair ships need Omani permits would limit enforcement. Iran International and WION have picked up the proposal. Cable consortia have not publicly responded. But the timing is the signal. The proposal arrived on the same day Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly rejected three United States red lines. Iran will not halt enrichment. Iran will not export its existing stockpile of more than 400 kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium. Iran will not share control of the Strait of Hormuz. The same day, Israel reportedly told Washington that any return to war must include strikes on Iran’s entire energy infrastructure within twenty-four hours, with several Arab countries reportedly in support, per Israel’s Channel 12. The S&P 500 closed Friday May 8 at a record 7,398.93. The VIX closed at 17.19. US Central Command has disabled four Iranian-flagged oil tankers in three weeks and redirected more than fifty-seven vessels since the blockade began April 13. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, on May 6 and 7, issued new transit protocols telling shipping that passage will be “safe and stable” for vessels that comply with Iranian regulations and use designated lanes. On May 3, the IRGC announced an expanded maritime control area covering nearly two thousand kilometers of Iranian coastline. President Trump described the recent kinetic exchange as “just a love tap” and said “the ceasefire is going. It’s in effect.” Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since the war began February 28. Per Axios April 8, he communicates via runners passing notes. Trump arrives in Beijing on May 14 and 15. A Strait under Iranian protocols. A maritime control area covering two thousand kilometers. Three nuclear and Hormuz red lines drawn in public. An Israeli energy infrastructure strike plan reportedly delivered with twenty-four-hour execution. A market at all-time high. And now a regulatory proposal for the seven undersea cables that were deliberately routed through Oman to avoid Iran. The Hormuz toll booth is going digital. The cables it wants to charge are not even in its waters. By May 15 we will know whether Beijing accepts the toll booth in any form. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202605091805 https://www.wionews.com/videos/iran-...-1778419794267 ** https://fastnetmon.com/2026/04/10/th...ross-the-gulf/ The Strait of Hormuz & Beyond: Cables, conflict and connectivity analysed https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a31fd0ee76.png |
The sea mine threat has not been spoken about much here or on the MSM. Be that because of OpSec or the fact that this is an aviation site I know not.
However, we can be reasonably certain the mine countermeasures have been ongoing in the SoH for a while. The transit of USN war canoes would seem to confirm this as it would be unlikely that CENTCOM would risk these vessels without some degree of certainty that the lanes were clear of mines. As to who has been doing the mine countermeasures I know not but over the years there have been exercises involving the Omanis - who clearly have an interest - the USN and the RN. I have reason to believe that the RN has some unmanned assets in the area and so may others. Iran has it seems a fair arsenal of seamines available. This video gives a decent breakdown: |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12084005)
Whilst monitoring the Iranian news agency, Tansim,
I use this website for reading foreign news. Can be a bit of 404's and 504's, mind you. Some can be translated to English. Asian & Middle Eastern Newspapers : Newspapers from Asia & the Middle East : Asian & Middle Eastern News Iran: From Donya e Eqtesad newpaper: Well written piece on Iran's Maritime and Land Capabilities. Dates 10th May 2026. English trans available. Iran's Maritime and Land Capacities |
Salute!
Until they get a few nukes, the Strait is their only hope, and that is only if the world at large accepts a fringe group of their religion as speaking for their country and others of the faith (which I and many do not accept as fact). Then lets them have us all at their whim. Somehow I cannot believe that the world wants that. Remember the scorpion. Meanwhile delay and delay and covertly strive to get some nukes. Gums sends... |
They’re not giving Trump even the fiction of an off ramp…..
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d89c239c1.jpeg https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...015773183?s=20 Iran’s state-backed news agency Irib News details Iranian conditions for negotiations with the U.S., following U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s reaction that called their response “totally unacceptable.” The terms, just a reiteration of their previous statements, include, but are not limited to, releasing frozen Iranian funds and assets, war reparations, and Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9edbe5ba3.jpeg |
Today's update on the anchorages, Strait of Hormuz, missing ships, damaged ships and pirates
First of all it definitely seems that ships are pushing back on the US and Iranians who are both becoming as irritating towards shipping as each other. Approximately 7 ships have successfully sailed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 12 hours, all have avoided the Iranian toll booth route north of Larak Island. Iranian ships have entered the Strait unmolested in both directions. All anchorages in the Persian Gulf appear stable as do those in the Gulf of Oman. A dhow has been taken by pirates in the Gulf of Aden / Bab-el-Mandab for use as another mother ship for their skiffs. That situation is being monitored. The Korean owners of HMM Namu have discovered a very large hole in the bottom of their ship, well below the waterline. Initially there had been some confusion as to whether the ship had indeed been hit with something since no damage was visible externally. This has now changed after the hole was discovered in her stern area... Photo's courtesy of HMM https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....00ee005fd9.png https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....73baabd474.png The bulk carrier Leya has been confirmed as the one hit off Doha yesterday (May 10). She suffered a small fire which was quickly extinguished. She is now off Khor Khwair, UAE https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ce70ef3f5f.png Finally, there is still no visible sign on AIS of the damaged CMA CGM San Antonio. She has not been seen on AIS for 6 days and is now 2 days overdue in Mundra, India. Still no word of her condition either. It is possible that she has been disabled in some way. As a feeder containership her upper accommodation and bridge superstructure are at her stern, it is therefore possible that she was hit in the accommodation area, bridge area or on / below the waterline. There are no updates as yet in regard to the injured crew, specifically the three who was seriously hurt. Her last known position https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....29c75aeeb5.png Will return tomorrow with further updates. |
From Newsweek:
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/...&m=6&f=jpg&u=tNewsweek Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi on Sunday evening responded to France and United Kingdom deploying warships near the Strait of Hormuz, warning that they would “be met with a decisive and immediate response.” Gharibabadi in a post on X wrote that the Strait of Hormuz “is not the common property of extra-regional powers; it is a sensitive waterway adjacent to coastal states, and the exercise of sovereignty by the Islamic Republic of Iran over this strait and the determination of its legal arrangements is Iran’s right as a coastal state.” For lars: nice summary on the mine warfare aspect. As the old saying goes, any ship can be a minesweeper once...:hmm: |
To paraphrase the US Ambassador to Vietnam 50 + years ago when answering a reporter’s question.
“ Anyone who thinks they understand the situation here does not understand the situation here! “ |
Originally Posted by albatross
(Post 12084643)
To paraphrase the US Ambassador to Vietnam 50 + years ago when answering a reporter’s question.
“ Anyone who thinks they understand the situation here does not understand the situation here! “ |
| All times are GMT. The time now is 09:36. |
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.