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Originally Posted by petit plateau
(Post 12081577)
The UAE seems to have decided that their / US / Israel interceptor magazine depth is not large enough to sit still on the receiving end. But will it be large enough now that they have changed stance ?
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And so they join in the fray.
A few items from El Mundo: - Two US warships managed to cross the Strait of Hormuz and enter the Persian Gulf on Monday, despite a coordinated attack with drones, missiles, and small boats attributed to Iran. The destroyers, supported by helicopters and other aircraft, faced threats during their transit through this strategic maritime route, according to military sources cited by CBS News. According to defense officials cited by the network, US forces activated protection systems and aerial support that allowed them to neutralize or deter the attack attempts without any impacts recorded. - Seoul reiterated on Tuesday that it is still investigating the cause of the explosion and fire on a ship operated by a South Korean shipping company within the Strait of Hormuz, after US President, Donald Trump, claimed that the vessel was attacked by Iran. "The exact cause of the accident is expected to be determined during the damage assessment process after the ship is towed," said the South Korean Foreign Ministry in response to questions from the press about the ministry's stance on Trump's comments. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated that the 24 crew members of the HMM NAMU, including six South Koreans, are unharmed, and the fire, reported on Monday night, has been extinguished. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12081563)
Listening to Hegseth on the news a few minutes ago it would appear his speech was very much `we are looking to bug out and leave everyone else to clear up the mess` or am I mistaken?
Hegseth says the US-Iran ceasefire is 'not over' despite attacks in Strait of Hormuz - BBC News Interesting how the US is trying to downplay what appear to be flagrant ceasefire violations by the Iranians. What gives I wonder? Do they really not want to go back to combat operations? |
Another potential escapee has woken up, Rich Starry.
She tried to make a break for it on April 14, 2026 but was turned back by the USN blockade on the 15th. She is carrying Iranian 250000 barrels of methanol from the Iranian port of Charbahar. Her AIS came back to life a short time ago after being turned off on April 15. She is listing her destination as Mumbai. Her owners, Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co, were added to the sanctions list by the US for supplying (or attempting to supply) China from Iranian ports. She is due to arrive in Mumbai on May 9, 2026....if she can get past the USN blockade this time, I suspect her destination may change if she breaks through. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....06641e1ff2.png |
The UAE's air defenses are currently dealing with missile and drone attacks originating from Iran. The Ministry of Defense confirms that the sounds heard in scattered areas of the country are the result of the UAE's air defense systems intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. UAE Air Defences system are actively engaging with missiles and UAV threats. MOD asserts that the sounds heard across the country are the result of ongoing engaging operations of missiles and UAV's |
Can't find mines, but they can find and track anyone trying to run the blockade.
Overnight stop in the UK or Germany? |
The location of the KC135R within the gulf seems to be "courageous". Would have thought that a logistics asset doing donuts outside of the range of SAMs would have been better for the crews retirement prospects, and the extended life of the asset(s). Assuming that a country that has had a substantial anti air weapons portfolio is now Winchester might be a safe bet back in the pentagon, but in seat 0A and B, not so much. Irrespective of whether the 7700 is due to spilt coffee, cold Big Macs or having taken a round through their plane, why would the AAR pattern be located so close to the reach of the other party in this ceasefire which seems to be incorrectly named.
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Reuters reporting that several ships have reported being hit in the Strait.
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Trump's bugging out, at least in part.
Trump says US will pause operation to guide ships through Strait of Hormuz - BBC News |
Overnight update in the maritime side of things.
UKMTO have confirmed a ship on fire, so far no confirmed identity. Two ships come to mind.....Interstellar and the already sanctioned Rich Starry. Interstellar has now been off AIS for nearly 22 hours, in that time she should have transited the Strait - in normal conditions. So far she has not activated AIS on the Gulf of Oman side of the Strait. She is carrying Iranian crude which would be devastating if she was hit. Rich Starry seems to have stayed in position south of Ramchah. Intermittent AIS signal all night. If she gets hit, again it would devastate the region as she is carrying 250000 barrels of Iranian methanol. She has been turned back once already by USN on April 15. The only other ships that could be targetted are those in the line from Khasab to Ramchah, only a couple still have AIS signals and they will fade off the chart in a few hours. As can be seen on image below, the Strait is quiet in regard to traffic https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....33749bf2c0.png https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c355731f07.png |
In relation to anchorages on both sides of the Strait.
The Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Al Widayyat and Sohar anchorages in the Gulf of Oman appear quiet and show none of the huddles as seen yesterday https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b5ffe67a3d.png The anchorages on the Persian Gulf side are still light at Ras-al-Kaimah, almost empty at Mina Saqr and very heavy at Sharjah and Dubai. Iranian patrol boats / skiffs still keeping ships back from the Khasab / Ramchah line https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....67b3e786b2.png At the other choke point, Bab-el-Mandab, traffic is fairly light and no further attacks or harrassment reported overnight https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2ccab4bd16.png |
The toll situation has now gone official. It seems a few people had set up official looking ways to pay the toll but they were fake. The Iranian authorities have stopped that.
Iran Launches "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to Administer Hormuz Tolls (Marine Executive, May 5th, 2026) The article linked also now confirms the ship that was hit yesterday as CMA CGM San Antonio. She is a Maltese flagged containership and had gone dark during her transit of the Strait, her last AIS transmission was in the Dubai anchorage a few days ago. Unfortunately there are confirmed reports that several of her crew have been injured in what is described as a cruise missile attack. No word, as yet, as to the damage done to the ship or environmental effect of the attack. Hopefully her crew will recover from their injuries and be repatriated to their various home countries as soon as safe to do so. As a result of the containership attack, Project Freedom is now suspended After Attack on CMA CGM Boxship, Trump Suspends Hormuz Transit Corridor (Marine Executive, May 5th, 2026) |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12081904)
Trump's bugging out, at least in part.
Trump says US will pause operation to guide ships through Strait of Hormuz - BBC News I wonder what they'll try next? I think the choice is boiling down to either go large, or go home. |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12081928)
I think the choice is boiling down to either go large, or go home.
It still beggars belief that J2/J3 appear not to have identified (and pre-empted) that the IRGC surface forces would attempt to close the Strait. Known mine magazines and FIAC bases should have been in the top five of the targetting list, right after the nuclear, ballistic and other missile sites. |
NaB
It is absolutely inconceivable that military planners and intelligence didn’t highlight the closure of the Strait as a direct and immediate consequence of the war. I suspect they were just roundly ignored and have since had to toe the party line when questioned.
BV |
The Maritime Executive have put together a summary of where the main players stand and where they are leaning in relation to the Iran conflict and they mention something about the UAE which may answer why they seem to get attacked more often than their neighbours. The article is dated May 3, 2026.
I do not know if this has already been discussed here... The Gulf States: With the Strait of Hormuz closed and the threat of a resumption of the war at any moment continuing, pressure is building up within the Gulf States. Most have made some attempt to reason with the Iranians through diplomatic channels – without evident success. The most dramatic impact has been on the United Arab Emirates, on the receiving end of five times more drone and missile attacks than Saudi Arabia, and whose economic model is severely compromised. The UAE has tended to be more robust and forward-leaning in its political judgements than its neighbors. Now that its air defenses have been reinforced with Israeli Iron Dome and Iron Beam laser air defense systems, the UAE may get to a point where it feels it can and needs to join in direct action to reopen the Strait. Updated: A Hormuz War Summary for Mariners (Marine Executive - May 3, 2026) Would the fact that the UAE being hit more often be a direct consequence of having Israeli supplied defence systems or is that sheer coincidence? |
The USN blockade has been broken by Iranian tankers using a different route.
Ordinarily ships heading for the Far East sail out of the Gulf and follow the standard route which would take them down the length of India, past Sri Lanka and into the Strait of Malacca and beyond. Due to USN activity on that route, there are confirmed cases of Iranian tankers using the Lombok Strait, thus completely bypassing the Indian coast, Sri Lanka and Malacca route. Indonesia have refused to prevent Iranian shipping from using the Lombok Strait to evade USN interference. They, correctly, have quoted UNCLOS which Indonesia is fully ratified. (US and Iran are signatories only, not ratified) Indonesia Says Iranian Tankers Have Legal Right of Passage in Lombok Strait (Maritime Executive - May 5, 2026) |
Another ship seems to be trying to exit the Persian Gulf.
A bulk carrier, Fortune Lord, is heading towards the new sea route north of Larak Island where the proverbial toll booth is said to be. Her AIS is indicating destination of Jebel Ali, which would be impossible given her direction. The port of Jebel Ali is in Dubai, so more likely her departure point, not destination. Her owners are registered as DSN Maritime Company Ltd of Hong Kong. Neither the company or ship are listed on the current US sanctions list. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9f5357eb01.png |
First stage of the latest TACO?
USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is transiting the Strait of Gibraltar and leaving the Mediterranean, marking the end of a deployment that lasted more than 300 days and included operations in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Caribbean. |
Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
(Post 12082052)
First stage of the latest TACO?
One can only imagine the mood onboard at the growing anticipation of a home-coming. |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 12081969)
It is absolutely inconceivable that military planners and intelligence didn’t highlight the closure of the Strait as a direct and immediate consequence of the war. I suspect they were just roundly ignored and have since had to toe the party line when questioned.
BV If the leadership deliberately removed those elements from the target list for "reasons" then absolutely on them. |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 12081969)
It is absolutely inconceivable that military planners and intelligence didn’t highlight the closure of the Strait as a direct and immediate consequence of the war. I suspect they were just roundly ignored and have since had to toe the party line when questioned.
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12082090)
Didn't Hegseth / Rubio say it was finished yesterday?
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Whilst wandering around the region, I keep seeing these craft, so far seen around a dozen or so over the last week,...they are all Iranian, coming from Iranian ports. Most stay within the confines of the Strait of Hormuz.
This one, Aramis Net2 94, is lurking around the area that the USN is said to be. Listed as a WIG (wing in grnd) they are infact ekranoplan. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f2f06675e9.png She is not far from where Touska was seized (Touska being the containership that the USN damaged the engineroom a few days ago). Touska's crew have now been repatriated home to Iran via handlers in Pakistan, a small, said to be 7 or 8 people, essential crew remain onboard her and Pakistan are negotiating her return to the Iranians, obviously she will require towage since her engines are disabled. |
Whilst wandering around the region, I keep seeing these craft, so far seen around a dozen or so over the last week,...they are all Iranian, coming from Iranian ports. Most stay within the confines of the Strait of Hormuz. This one, Aramis Net2 94, is lurking around the area that the USN is said to be. Listed as a WIG (wing in grnd) they are infact ekranoplan. |
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9865c1f27d.png |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12082098)
Most likely the case.
They have not been singing from the same sheet of music for a couple of weeks now, why do you think they would start now? The inconsistent messaging has been a feature of this military operation since its beginning. |
There is some movement on all anchorages, it is dusk in the region currently - 1749 local time.
Ships are once again being herded into tight groups by Iranian tugs, ekanoplan and "unspecified" craft, each of the groups also appears to be outside territorial waters. One such group is about 15 to 20 miles offshore from Dibba. It has a mixture of ships and one stands out...CMA CGM Aquila. She left Dubai at around the same time as CMA CGM San Antonio. I still have not found CMA CGM San Antonio. The CMA CGM have confirmed that she was hit yesterday and they have confirmed that several of her crew were injured and are now receiving medical care off the ship. They are not confirming the extent of the damage done, whether she is disabled or where she is, we do know that she was fully laden with containers. Two images....one close up of the group of ships. The light blue arrows / spots are Iranian ekranoplan or tugs. The second image is the same group but giving the proximity with Dibba. https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3f1e5ca581.png https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1b30dbd958.png |
Another collection of ships, again herded by Iranian craft, are some way off Ras al Khaimah. Included in this group is HMM Namu. She suffered a fire and explosion that has left her disabled on May 4, 2026. The South Korean owners are said to be arranging a tow into Jebel Ali, though that is not confirmed as yet.
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0bbfb9f67e.png https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....676732f60b.png |
Not sure if anyone has seen these before but this is Larak Island and whereabouts of important (and in some cases disputed) Iranian positions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Images enlarged courtesy of The IRGC's Positions on Larak Overlook the "Tehran Tollbooth" Route (Marine Executive - May5, 2026) The write up is actually an interesting read. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....89c79e975f.png https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....521f3080c8.png |
It does have a feel of the US flailing around trying to find a way to disengage - any way to disengage.
I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops. It must be a tough play for the scenario planners at CENTCOM with no consistency of mission direction at the political level. Goodness knows what morale is like among the people who are in harms way while this plays out. |
Originally Posted by Wyntor
(Post 12082169)
It does have a feel of the US flailing around trying to find a way to disengage - any way to disengage.
I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops. It must be a tough play for the scenario planners at CENTCOM with no consistency of mission direction at the political level. Goodness knows what morale is like among the people who are in harms way while this plays out. |
Originally Posted by Wyntor
(Post 12082169)
I feel that the one page MoU is going to look so bad and get panned so badly in the media that the admistration may flip flop again and return to kinetic ops.
Yes, the CENTCOM planners are probably in the stunned mullet mode at this point. The most commonly asked question is probably: "OK, they want what, now?" |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12082260)
He did mention that in the TS blurb quoted a few posts up form yours: "If the don't agree, the bombing starts..."
Yes, the CENTCOM planners are probably in the stunned mullet mode at this point. The most commonly asked question is probably: "OK, they want what, now?" |
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With all these ships grouping up, with no one seemingly to know why or what the purpose is - I wonder why no one is listening to the Ships radios :8
I mean VHF Marine Ch16 (Emergency/Hailing), Ch9 backup Hailing. Ch10 Weather, Ch13 Bridge to Bridge, Ch68-72 General chat. Maybe Ch13 Bridge to Bridge would have been used by the individual ships captains to 'get together'. Not hard to listen in...! And I still haven't seen photo's/video's of all of these nasty mines... Wonder why...:E |
If the world still exists in five years' time, the books written by retired US miitary will be must-reads.
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Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12082167)
Not sure if anyone has seen these before but this is Larak Island and whereabouts of important (and in some cases disputed) Iranian positions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Images enlarged courtesy of The IRGC's Positions on Larak Overlook the "Tehran Tollbooth" Route (Marine Executive - May5, 2026) The write up is actually an interesting read. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....89c79e975f.png https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....521f3080c8.png |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12082345)
Reporter: You are facing an opponent in Iran that has refused to submit. Trump: Why do you say they refuse to submit? You don’t know that. Reporter: They fired at U.S. ships a few days ago. Trump: A few days ago is a long time ago. They want to make a deal badly. The agent is also correct, "a few days ago is" indeed "a long time ago" when it comes to which version of events has precedence. |
Maybe someone could elucidate what possible differences there could between a one page agreement which is being negotiated currently on Iran’s terms, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by the US, UK, Russia, China, France plus Germany, with Iran in 2015?
Operation Epic Stupidity rolls on. |
candles
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
(Post 12082378)
Maybe someone could elucidate what possible differences there could between a one page agreement which is being negotiated currently on Iran’s terms, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action negotiated by the US, UK, Russia, China, France plus Germany, with Iran in 2015?
Operation Epic Stupidity rolls on. Herewith is the plan from the current players
Spoiler
and here is the original framework of the JCPOA
Spoiler
See, easy. The beauty of the current version is it kind of has a Shakespearian aura...
Spoiler
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