Hang on, what?!
Ekranoplans? They have those?!

Thanks for the updates, BonnieLass, really interesting!

​​​​​​​https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post12082113

​​​​​​​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Bavar_2

The UAE are speeding up their construction of a second pipeline network connecting the Gulf States with Fujairah via a second pipeline to run alongside the existing Habshan-Fujairah system that is currently moving 1.8 million barrels of oil per day. The new pipeline is due to be completed in 2027. Saudi Arabia and UAE are currently the only Gulf States that have pipelines leading outside of the Persian Gulf thus bypassing the choke point of the Strait.. Extending the network will enable Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain to export oil without having to depend on the Strait of Hormuz.

The shipping companies are pushing hard for alternative methods of getting oil, oil products, LNG, LPG and other cargoes out and to lose the dependency on the Strait of Hormuz...and allowing Iran to disrupt trade routes as is the case currently. Eventually the Gulf States are looking to be able to drop most of their current need for transit through the Strait. This would mean that Iran will not profit from it since the majority of transits would be their own ships. Port infrastructure, road and rail improvements along with the pipeline network have been planned for several years but with the hostilities, those plans have been accelerated.

More on the new pipeline : UAE’s new West-East pipeline to double ADNOC’s export capacity through Fujairah (Gulf News - May 15, 2026)

Also...in the same vein as their ekranoplan fleet, the Iranians have deployed several locally built Ghadir class midget submarines within the Strait of Hormuz. They can sit and wait on the seabed for a few days and can attack a ship without any warning. Powered by diesel-electric engines, they have a crew of 7 and are said to be quite effective at torpedoing ships that are using the Strait due to their shallow water design and relatively small size....approx 125 tons submerged displacement.

More on the Ghadir : Iran Deploys ‘Trigger-Ready’ Ghadir Submarines to Strait of Hormuz as Tehran Signals Underwater Threat to Global Oil Routes (Defence Security Asia - May 10, 2026)

Bonnielass

Is there not an Oman - UAE rail line that could be used to transport cargo?
That would save cargo/container ships using the Strait.

Under construction
https://www.hafeetrail.com

……………….

apparently, we still have folks here hooked on alternate news sources and are not here in the U.S. with several sources to read, see or listen...gotta laugh....

Gums sends...
meanwhile folks on the Gulf are defeating Iran's blackmail attempt...just need support from "interested" countries.

Today's updates on the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab and the ancharages.......including "friendly gestures" concessions, double standards and the figures that simply do not add up

The last 24 hours has seen an increase in traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is trying to curry favour with certain nations...which is to be expected.....by allowing tankers free transit. Nations such as China, Japan, India have all seen vessels pass through without being harrassed. Chinese ships have been allowed through to coincide with the visit to China by president Trump. The Iranians have stated more than once that they have a deep understanding with certain nations and that is reflected by allowing the ships to pass, all diplomatic and nice (or as some might put it, a little bit of sucking up goes a long way).

One of the first to exit was the China bound VLCC, Yuan Hua Hu, carrying approximately 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude. The ship is now well on its way unhindered to Zhoushan from Al Basrah.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e307df8d03.png

It is no surprise that many within the industry are treating this "free pass" for Chinese ships as a coincidence due to president Trumps visit to China with the USN allowing the ship to pass, yet only a few days ago another ship also loaded with Iraqi crude from Al Basrah, the Greek owned and flagged Agios Fanourios I, on her way to Nghi Son was stopped by the USN and remains at anchor off Muscat


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cde61fabb1.png

The list of who to stop appears, on the face of it, to be a complex and complicated question......especially when the oil isn't Iranian and hasn't come from an Iranian port, which considering the Iranian ports are blockaded by the USN...why would they block oil from Iraqi ports...but only some ships and not others.

In relation to the figures not adding up....confusion abound over the capacity to store oil and oil products in Iran is persisting. Kharg Island is back in business, tankers are being loaded and there is sufficient storage space despite the bombardment received with one organisation, Windward, stating that around 20 tankers were loaded or are in the process of loading that are able to provide approximately 25 million barrels of floating storage capacity. Over and above this, another organisation, Vortexa, have stated that several empty oil and gas tankers have sailed past the USN blockade into the Persian Gulf for Iranian ports for floating storage. Incidently the large oil slick spotted a few days ago seems to be due to a tanker washing its tanks and not as a result of the pipeline leaking or due to damage storage tanks on Kharg Island. Suffice it to say, the oil and gas industry in Iran is working relatively normally and there does not appear to be a shortage of storage capacity on land or floating despite the measures taken by the USN.

More information : Hormuz Traffic Increases as Iran Metes Out Passage for Political Gain (Maritime Executive - May 15, 2026)

So to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandab Strait

Hormuz is flowing quite well this morning, several ships in both directions and most avoiding the proverbial toll booth route north of Larak Island


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a096500c00.png

Bab-el-Mandab traffic has increased over the last 24 hours, currently flowing well


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....48f9103d3a.png

At time of typing this, there have been no reported incidents at either Strait.

The Persian Gulf anchorages remain busy, again no reported incidents as yet today. I am wondering if the attack on HMM Namu a few days ago might not have been a mine (as considered by her Korean owners) but maybe a Ghadir midget submarine attack.....thoughts from others here would be welcome. Night time clusters are still being formed across the Persian Gulf, which would be understandable if Ghadir are deployed in the area around Mina Saqr and Ras al Khaimah


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bef4d19e17.png
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d5ac9f3484.png
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....40b35472e5.png

Outside the Strait of Hormuz, activity has increased significantly across all anchorages and ports. Heavy clusters around Fujairah, Al Widdiyat, Khor Fakkan and Liwa.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....107e24b167.png

That is all for the time being.......still no word on CMA CGM San Antonio's situation, hopefully there will be soon. Will update again tomorrow.

A floating mine that just happened to drift to exactly the perfect spot on a ships machinery space, so as to do disabling damage with minimum risk of oil spillage. Sounds improbable doesn't it.

Herding makes it easier to intervene in the flock.

In regard to the Ghadir, I have found this film made 12 years ago.......it appears to be legitimate. Made by the Iranian military. Running time is a little over 8 minutes.


They are notoriously hard to spot via sonar thanks to their small size, small sonar signature and their ability to hide amongst underwater rocky outcrops.

More information : Iran’s Mini-Subs Turn the Strait of Hormuz Into a Sonar Trap (Modern Engineering Marvels - April 9, 2026)

Which would be mainly China, India, Japan and South Korea.Those are the Countries which are getting their Oil and fertliser from there. Seems at least China, India and maybe Japan have found a silent agreement with Iran. seems things will be rather settling behind the scenes once the big dust has settled and everyone's gone home.

By 'everyone', you presumably mean the USA.

That doesn't help the Gulf nations that until now have been allies of the USA. The still have to get their oil/gas/minerals out of the Gulf, and I doubt they're confident that the departure of the USN would stop the asymmetric warfare or blockage of the strait. At best, they'd be left having to factor in the 'toll' charge to their prices, to their own detriment. At worst, they'd be left defenceless. These countries have paid the Trump administration (or family) huge amounts of money to insure them against exactly what's happening now. If the US military creeps away, that's another tranche of allies lost to the US. Those bases are/were useful.

Aren't these tiny subs just big mines really, that Mine sweepers would/could/should pickup..? :}

Not thread drift but interesting developments elsewhere.
Looking at American news media yesterday evening it seems DJT’s and others focus is shifting towards Cuba
It seems the 94 year old Raul Castro is a clear and present danger and wanted for the shoot down of 2 civilian Cessna 337 aircraft operated by a Cuban dissident group based in Florida in 1996, a mere 30 years ago!

Could this be a deliberate distraction from the lack of progress in the Persian Gulf?
Another factor could be the Cuban / Latino vote in the upcoming midterms.

So todays updates...warring words (and stating the obvious)...and the Gerald R Ford is finally home for the next 12months...maybe 24 months...possibly longer

The very predictable Mr Trump has once again stated that the Strait of Homuz must be open.....and Mr Xi agreed that, yes, it must be open. Then, stating the obvious that it was open before the current conflict, Mr Xi is said to have added that the conflict should never have been started in the first place (yes, Mr Xi...we know). China is not looking to force the Strait to be reopened fully (just as several other countries have said when asked to do the same thing, in so many words..."no...you started it....you sort it" ). Mr Trump, meanwhile is pondering about lifting US sanctions on China buying Iranian oil.....just has to try and do a deal somewhere with someone...again. In the meantime oil prices have been fluctuating in the upward direction...and doing the deal seems further away than ever...despite Iran stating many times they would be happy to negotiate some more but no-one is listening.

More on this : Trump says Xi agrees Iran must open strait, China says war should not have started (Baird Maritime - May 16, 2026)

To give an indication as to how the Strait of Hormuz is affecting the export of oil, it is reported that through April 2026 Iraq managed to export 10 million barrels of oil via the Strait. In the month prior to the conflict, it had exported 93 million barrels of oil via the Strait. Iraq is exporting overland via the newly reopened Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline thanks to a new agreement tween Iraq and Kurdistan in March 2026. This means that they can currently export 200000 barrels a day through Ceyhan port in Turkey, and are hoping to increase that to 500000 barrels. Ongoing discussions tween Iraq and Turkey in regard to developing new agreements that would include gas and oil products (the current deal is for crude only).

More on this : Iraq exported 10 million barrels of oil through Strait of Hormuz in April (Baird Maritime - May 16, 2026)

The Gerald R Ford has finally arrived back home in Virginia after her extended 326 day deployment. The ship has faced a few problems during her time at sea and will be entering a period of maintenance slated to last at least 12 to 24 months. She was welcomed home by families of the crew...and Pete Hegseth. Also arriving home was USS Mahan and USS Bainbridge. Another homecoming was for USS Winston S Churchill after her extended deployment arrived in Mayport, Florida.

More on this : USS Gerald R. Ford and Strike Group Arrive Home Ending Record Deployment (Maritime Executive - May 16, 2026)


Now to the Straits and anchorages.....

Fairly quiet on the Strait of Hormuz. At time of writing, no incidents reported. However there are some very tight huddles off Khasab just inside the Strait.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....507d7296fa.png

Nice and quiet at Bab-el-Mandab this morning also, again at time of writing, no reported incidents


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....098350f7cb.png

The main anchorages from Bahrain to Iraq are looking calm, several ships are in huddles again.......and Kharg Island is quiet, an Iranian tug called Karen 4 seems to be in the area where the oil slick was spotted last week


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5c0b3be6d9.png

The Doha, Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Ras-al-Khaimah / Mina Saqr areas are very busy as always, large groups of ships with the usual "sheep dog" Iranian ekranoplan and patrol boats keeping them close quartered


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3000f2a3c1.png

And on the outside of the Strait of Hormuz, also very busy from Dibba anchorage right down to Sohar anchorage. The ports of Khor Fakkan (containership / cargo) and Fujairah (oil / gases / oil products) are both highly active...again with the "sheep dog" Iranian herders nearby.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0a4fad89f9.png

CMA CGM San Antonio and her crew are still unaccounted for, it is 12 days since she was last seen on AIS.

That's it for today, back in the morning.

So, the USA has told the UAE it should use its troops to seize the disputed islands in the Strait and control of the Gulf - presumably with the US providing air support. Meanwhile the C-17s and other NVAs in the Gulf have flown out over the last 24 hours, just as they did before the last US attack.

May be about to kick off again now Trump is back from China.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/...090000951.html

​​​​​​​

That's not strictly correct.

Ukraine has 4 minesweepers currently in Portsmouth (2 x ex RN, 1 ex Dutch Navy and 1 x ex Belgian Navy), the RN has a couple left and Lithuania have them. They are all ready to sail to the Gulf once hostilities are completed.

On top of that RFA Lyme Bay is in Gibraltar with her automonous minesweeping drones along with a few other countries that have those too. Again ready and willing to sail to the Gulf once hostilities end.

The USN used to have 4 minesweepers based in Bahrain, they were decommissioned last year, leaving 4 others still in service based in Japan.

Start a war in someone else's back yard and then expect those guys to do your wet work for you - not exactly Franklin D Roosevelt level wartime leadership.....

The Typhoons in Cyprus been equipped so that they can now perform the anti-UAS role and have released the F-35Bs to RTB.

Abu Dhabi government medias office:

Something strange seems to be occurring in Fujairah.

Earlier this morning there were several ships in the port and on the anchorage, pretty much business as usual.

Just glancing through the ports just now and Fujairah is completely empty of ships....all ships are gone from the port and at the anchorage ships have been moving south towards Al Widiyyat, Liwa and Sohar anchorages, most registering on AIS 5-11 hours ago.

Are they anticipating a problem at Fujairah?


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b92403d7a8.png
https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....54a3a8e047.png

New summary for week 11 on the Shipuation in the Prison Gulf and Doom-gurgle Strait from Sal at WGOWS

Thanks Bonnie, keep it coming...meanwhile...
----
So we are now seeing what was coming when they didn't have to demo their nuke and nobody was gonna help keep the Strait open.
I don't like it now and I wouldn't like then.
And speaking of their nukes...anyone notice their adamant public insistence on continuing their "peaceful" nuclear program? Heh heh. 60% or higher enrichment. And oh yeah, their sovereignty/right to control the Strait...uh huh? where are the folks here constantly emphasizing international practice and agreements and..and yet Bosporous remains, Gibraltar remains, Magellan remains...even the Bering remains wide open to all, even when one can be on a ladder in Tin City Alaska and see Russia thru the haze.
Sorry, but the regime we are all facing is not your basic 'enemy' or ruled by a greedy oligarchy type dictator...and it does not value most of its citizens' lives, much less rights. So not much room to inflict more "pain", as they are already enduring more than the world seems willing to endure - classic asymmetric war situation, and they are not afraid to use suicide vests at your wedding or schoolbuses. No other goup of their religion comes close to their demands for control of the Strait and continued development of the bomb, nor contribute as much to sorry bunches like Hamas and Hezbollah to wish to destroy another ethnic group on the planet , can you name one?

Tried to obey the ROE, but this discussion demands calling out a few items not welcome on the forum ROE.

Gums sends...

Was fine a few weeks back, or so !

El G.

The Wall Street Journal has published, on its website and (presumably) for its Monday print edition, an op-ed which advocates for Pres. Trump finishing the task of defeating Iran in fact as opposed to some thinly-veiled cut-and-run retreat. The author is Seth Cropsey, president of the Yorktown Institute, and a former naval officer and deputy undersecretary of the Navy (as stated by WSJ).

With some type of nod toward the forum and thread "ROEs", this post quotes just the part of the op-ed which asserts the actions Trump should undertake, and not the preceding portion which advocates for the strategy (as such) for the offensive in the first place. And I'm quoting it (verbatim) solely for the sake of possible discussion by posters who do have military planning and operations experience (which, no secret, I do not have).
_________
"First, the U.S. should prepare a major series of strikes against Iranian communications, transportation and other infrastructure, while concurrently unleashing the Israeli air force against remaining Iranian industries. Iran’s metallurgical industry, a pillar of its state-backed economy, is badly damaged. Coordinating with Israeli attacks on these targets while disrupting Iranian military movement would cripple virtually every industry for Iran except oil production.

Two additional operations would target the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian uranium storage in Isfahan. The former would be principally against Qeshm Island, in concert with the United Arab Emirates, which has attacked Iran many times during the war. Qeshm and its surrounding islands are the key to the strait. The latter operation should aim to seize nuclear material. By rescuing a downed pilot in early April, the U.S. demonstrated it can operate in the area effectively.

Finally, the U.S. should attack remaining Iranian tanker capacity inside the Strait of Hormuz. The faster we destroy Iran’s floating oil storage, the more the country’s economy will feel the squeeze.

Mr. Trump’s objective shouldn’t be to bluff the Iranians out. Instead it should be to demonstrate that if push comes to shove, the U.S. will commit to an overwhelming confrontation that breaks the Iranian state economically and politically. An air campaign approximating the war’s first week, which disoriented Iranian capabilities, is possible now that the dust has settled around Iran’s leadership."
_________

Thanks for the ref, Willow....

WSJ may be interpreting what the Navy troop is saying, or both have to look back a bit.

The regime of interest will not change their goals due to more economic pressure, and has demonstrated this for 50 years. Signed agreements have pacified the international community that still believes in "peace in our time", and the regime suceeded in giving the zealots more time and even $$$ to help develop their bomb - witness the great agreement signed, mostly, in 2015.../sarc. OH yeah, allowed more $$ and hdwe for Hamas and Hezbollah for their acts of love and peaceful neighbor cooperation....still laughing....

Not gonna keep repeating, but my position has not changed since I raised the gear as lead of the last flight outta the damned war 51 years ago. In the end, it's up to the people to decide and then do. Saw it for ten years and lost many friends and students, both U.S. and Vee. And my country saw it 250 years ago, despite some "help" from two European adversaries of our motherland.
So best we outsiders can do is make it harder for an oppresive regime to exert their will on the "oppressed" and let the "oppressed" do it for themselves. Can't resist, but in a tribute to the right to bear arms, our success back then and again in 1812 was helped immensely by militia folks not trained to be soldiers, but were very good with their weapons when the time came. And I also point out that on the riverbank south of New Orleans in January 1815 a ragtag bunch of pirates, free men of color, ill-trained rebels, militia from Tennesee/Kentucky and Choctaw indians defeated a pretty fiercesome British force, ending that war. Then dallied in real estate business rebuilding the Whitehouse( as the King pointed out a few weeks ago, he heh).

Bottom line is that the country requires a regime change to some form of government resembling their neighbors' and it does not need to resemble any so-called democracy. The people should enjoy the gifts they have been provided on this Earth that were not given/allowed/permitted from other nations. And be good neighbors as much as possible.

Gums sends....
gonna be a rough week, wanna bet?

Pipe dreams. Likely not possible to destroy floating oil storage without creating an environmental mess.

Once Iran re-attacks oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, one assumes the US/Israel axis with depart leaving it for someone else to sort out.

And yet you do. Which problem gets sorted out first; the one created in 1954, 2016 or 2026?
You're talking about the US, right?

Assuming the air war restarts, how long can USIsrael maintain a high intensive bombing campaign? The US administration wants us to believe they are are not running out of ammunition any time soon. Facts seem to tell otherwise.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/ar...tockpiles-iran

Well yes, Trump can do lots more damage to Iran, but Iran will do the same to KSA and Gulf States infrastructure. The Strait will be open, but there won't be much to ship for quite a few years.

​​​​​​KSA and the Gulf States have recently denied Trump airspace for offensive operations and may do so again. That doesn't mean that Trump will always respect airspace denials.

It's recently reported that Israel has established two bases in Iraq. Certain folks in the Iraqi government and military are denying knowledge. Self preservation may motivate the denials.

It's also possible that Trump and Israel will simply help themselves to Iraqi airspace.

In Iraqi Desert, Two Israeli Outposts Were Kept Secret for Months

I must admit I don't see an easy way out of this mess. As we now stand, Iran still has its 60% enriched Uranium (which is much more easily enriched to bomb levels vs the original less than 1.0%) and the strait is closed to shipping, which is a worse situation than when this started. Trump needs to define a resolution, besides bombast, that solves these problems. Anything else is hot air.

I have to ask, how Iran will enrich uranium- if their total energy supply are very low- providing that electric transportation network is already hard damage and it is very easy to destroy further ( without even using manned aircraft - just drones) energy assets ( hidro or fuel/ coal power stations) ?


Unless, someone sells electricity to Iran....🤪

Today's updates on the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab, all of the anchorages inside and outside the Persian Gulf.....plus the problematic Jones Act causing issues for the US, another land link tween the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, Iranian tankers bypassing the USN and the heightened threat after the nuclear reactor attack (mentioned above but in more detail and possibly why Fujairah went dark)

The Jones Act of 1920 has reared its ugly side again with the conflict in Iran and, specifically, the lack of US flagged vessels. The gist of the Jones Act is (and I am sure I will be corrected if necessary), only US flagged ships can call into US ports consecutively (ie a ship flagged as US can call into the port of Miami and then go to Mobile without having to go to a foreign port inbetween). Foreign flagged ships have to sail to a foreign port tween each US port call unless they receive a waiver from the US government. The Act is certainly an understandable piece of legislation, however it is not practical especially in times of war and when you do not have a large fleet of ships that you can depend on. The Iran conflict and the problems with the Strait of Homuz has once again highlighted the downsides of the Act...The reason why the Jones Act is pertinent to the Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Iranian war is that there are US flagged ships still stranded within the Persian Gulf, those ships are now essentially out of service as a result. The current conflict with Iran is the largest oil shock in recent history, the knock on effect is that as much as the US has stepped up production of crude and oil products (which doesn't help everyone due to the US crude being lighter than the ME crude), there is a shortage of US flagged ships that can go from US port to US port direct. Waivers for foreign flagged ships are harder to come by as a result of some "difficult" intra-country relations in recent months.

More on that here : National Security Requires Energy Security - The lack of a sizeable ocean-going fleet puts the U.S. at risk. (Maritime Executive - May 17, 2026)

Iran, on the other hand, have a significant number of tankers, many are empty and are seemingly able to transit the Strait of Hormuz with ease despite the USN blockade. Although Kharg Island has made a temporary stop on loading (due to an ongoing threat of attack) there are several other oil terminal ports along the Iranian coast which are still able to load crude, oil products and gases and then used as floating storage. There does not appear to be a shortage of storage both on land or using older VLCC's for the purpose.

One oil product tanker, called Pegasus, has crossed the USN blockade several times and made transit of the Strait at least 3 times....yet she was on the blacklist during Biden's tenure. She is currently in the Al Widiyyat anchorage (last seen on AIS May 15, 2026)


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c5915c9a11.png

More on the Iranian tankers : Iran's Empty Tankers are Still Running Blockade, But Loadings Have Stopped (Maritime Executive - May 17, 2026)

Tensions are certainly growing across the region in regard to potential restart of hostilities. The drone attack on the nuclear power plant (as already mentioned in the thread yesterday) has brought about a sense of unease, not least in areas where the region's major assets are....such as Fujairah that went dark and appeared to have been totally evacuated yesterday. Fujairah is, of course, one end of a very important pipeline network and an essential part of keeping the crude flowing out of the Persian Gulf without depending on the Strait of Hormuz. Further damage to the complex would set things back significantly. The port is still dark this morning, along with the Naval port further up the coast.


More on this : The Odds of Renewed Hostilities With Iran are Increasing (Maritime Executive - May 17, 2026)

Local media are giving a less optimistic view...

What if disruption in Strait of Hormuz never ends? World adapts to “new normal” (Gulf News - May 18, 2026)

Dubai’s new ‘Green Corridor’ turns critical trade route amid sea disruptions (Gulf News - May 17, 2026)

So not really looking brilliant for the furture of the Strait of Hormuz, though the Gulf States should be commended on getting alternative ways and means to get their produce out of the Persian Gulf and avoiding the Strait up and running so quickly when under such tense and difficult circumstances.

On to the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab and anchorages....

Strait of Hormuz is very quiet again this morning in relation to AIS movements, that is not to say that there could be some dark movements happening. The Bab-el-Mandab is very busy and flowing freely (at time of writing, no incidents have been recorded)


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....149fe58596.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c952f5ec98.png

Persian Gulf anchorages remain busy, very little has changed...Doha is still light and the area of Das Island (tween Doha and Sharjah) is becoming busier with mainly VLCC traffic


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ab5ad70776.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2507f60123.png
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9d7c4bf6a7.png
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....97ed6c7945.png

On the Gulf of Oman side, Fujairah is still largely quiet or perhaps dark. The rest of the main anchorages and ports are busy and with heavy clusters


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5648aa1820.png

As before, no update on CMA CGM San Antonio.

That's it for today....back tomorrow.

(Thank you to those who have shown interest in these updates, they take me a couple of hours or so to collate and write up with sources from local media, international industry media and various government departments in the region. None is sourced from any form of social media as I like to cross check everything from official sources within the countries concerned before posting)

You can't force the Strait open militarily. Cue CMA CGM San Antonio. It seems she was one of three ships guarded through the Strait by one of the most powerful Destroyer Types globally. Now she is destroyed.

There have been approximately 40+ ships that have been attacked and, technically, written off since the conflict began on February 28, 2026. Project Freedom, which the CMA CGM San Antonio was part of the only convoy under that exercise, was fundamentally flawed, not least by not speaking to the Gulf Allies prior to it starting. In order to get the ships out of the Persian Gulf with a military escort, you first have to get your military escort into the Persian Gulf and despite the obligatory denials, those USN ships did come under fire by way of warning shots (nothing was actually hit but they were fired upon). That alone along with the unannounced plan to start Project Freedom...it is always useful to keep locally placed Allies in the loop as they could be of assistance if anything goes wrong.....should have been a signal that Project Freedom, whilst good on paper, was maybe a risk too far in actuality.

In order to bring a balanced view from both sides of the Strait of Hormuz "fence".....

One of the most reliable Iranian news agencies....one that the majority of the world's media look to for accurate information...has announced that Iran and Oman (who both share territorial waters through the Strait of Hormuz) are in discussions and have been for quite some time and as late as last week to try and sort out a way to operate the Strait of Hormuz in a safe and secure way.......and without the need for the proverbial toll booth. These discussions do not include the US or Israel, it is purely between the two countries who share territorial waters and both countries desire to return to the pre-war state of the Strait of Hormuz.More of this : Iran in Contact with Oman on Hormuz Mechanism: Spokesman (Tasnim - May 18, 2026)

Some people will inevitably say that Tasnim are biased towards their own country of Iran, Iranian thoughts, opinions and values.......well, let us be honest, every country's media is biased towards their own country's thoughts, opinions and values, that is an inevitable part of being the "flagship" media company for any country. Iran and Tasnim are no different in that to any other government preferred or associated media agency.

Sea traffic via the Strait of Hormuz was unhindered prior to the conflict, there had not been any issues or animosity towards or from Iran for many years in regard to the Strait and its security or safety. The fact that Iran is in discussions with Oman over the Strait and that both Pakistan and now Qatar are in discussions with Iran to get the currently stalled talks with the US and Israel restarted shows a willingness on Iran's part to move forward. They all need the US and Israel to move forward too.

In my daily updates, I mention the Bab-el-Mandab Strait that joins the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. This area has been subject to piracy and to ship attacks committed by the Houthi. It is well documented that the Houthi are aligned with the Iranian regime and what happens in Iran by way of hostilities thus placing the Strait of Hormuz in danger will do the same for the Bab-el-Mandab Strait. It should be stressed that the Houthi are in the north of Yemen and not anywhere near Aden in the south. Having been to Aden myself more than once, there is palpable hatred of the northern areas of the country and has been that way for many many decades (a very close friend of mine was stationed in Aden with the UN - 1963-7). Therefore it is important that Yemeni people are not painted with the same brush as the radical element to the north, the Houthi. It also needs to be said that the Houthi are not included in the current Iran / Israel /Lebanon / Gaza / US ceasefires, they are bubbling under the surface. To that end, there has been a statement of Houthi leadership condemning the ongoing attacks tween Israeli forces and Hezbollah, if these attacks continued, the Bab-el-Mandab Strait could be shut down by the Houthi which must be avoided.

More on this : Official Stresses Yemeni Ansarullah’s Support for Hezbollah against Israel (Tasnim - May 16, 2026)


There is, therefore, much to play for and much to discuss and negotiate tween the main antagonists....with Oman, Qatar and Pakistan all doing their part to get those antagonists around the table and with Iran being the most willing to do so, the next move from the US and Israel will mean either the world returns to relative (if more suspicious) normality or the current trade, civilian, military, shipping losses will increase.

There is far more riding on the proposed negotiations headed by Qatar, Pakistan and Oman than a regime change, the handover of uranium or any other reason thusfar given for the hostilities that began on February 28, 2026. Too many lives have been lost on all sides both military and civilian and as Mr Xi rightly said, this was a war that should never have been started.

New nuclear capacity in the last twenty years has been located in China (13 power stations), Russia & Belarus (3), India (1, 2013), UAE (1, 2021) and Iran (1, 2011); the last new nuclear power station in the US was 30 years ago. Objections in the west to nuclear have progressed from political to economic; it's simply far too expensive and takes far too long to build.

Given Iran's location and climate, if they're really about electricity they'd be better off with distributed power sources derived from oil and renewables, particularly ever cheaper solar panels from their mates in China. The "peaceful nuclear program" cover story gets thinner every year.