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More news from Whats going on with Shipping on events in the Persian Gulf.
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Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 12051212)
Time for starmer to take a course of Realpolitik.
It was only a few short months ago they were urging us and the rest of Europe to be less reliant on them for our collective defence. And then, before you know it, they cry foul when we tell them we don't want to get involved in their latest military misadventure. |
Well worth a watch if you want an understanding of where the Iran war may go
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Video
A helicopter of the UAE Air Force shoots down an Iranian ‘Shahed-136’ kamikaze drone near the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. |
Salute!
Thnx ORAC, Lonewolf, et al for recognizing the fog of war RE: the short round that struck a school. Sadly, sierra happens, and we can only try to find out why and then do our best to prevents it from happening again. The ROE and the extrŕordinary efforts by the planners and actual delivery folks on one side to minimize collateral casualties and damage in this conflict is beyond pale. Yet sierra happens, and there is no reason to disregard actaing upon poor intell or even intentional "poor" intell by nefarious parties. Happened to me a few dozen klicks nw of Plieku in 1968 when my wingie and I dropped on a small ville supposedly harboring an enemy big guy. Turned out it was a political enemy of the provence chief! Talk about feeling low! It is the second worst thing to find out other than you snuffed a bunch of your friends. Despite the unnerving accuracy of the stuff nowadays that I would love to have had back then and on my second chapter, things have not evolved to achieve what most of the innocent critics think is possible. Gums reminds all who have not experienced the opportunity to mistakenly drop a short round. Maybe Mogs can comment from his adventure in the 80's. out, |
Originally Posted by langleybaston
(Post 12051212)
For so many aviation aspects we have hitherto relied in part cooperation with USA. Likewise Int. We need America more than America needs us. Time for starmer to take a course of Realpolitik. Or too late.
Safe days to those in harms way. |
One of my old best mates who lives in Dubai, ORAC mentioned to me while we were zooming a few hours ago about the UH-60 engaging with the drone. Reports said AH-64 but looking at the X twitter feed its a UH-60 Black Hawk. One report said door gunner used their M134 to bring it down.. hasten to add she was worried about her eldest daughter being other side of the city awaiting cab/uber to come back home. She says air raid sirens going off here there everywhere, says two and now three major oilfields been attacked. Think the one today was Fujiarah (?) as she said.
Back in November in happier times, I attended the Dubai Air Show 2025 so saw their Joint Aviation Command UH-60L/M / Armed Black Hawks on static including one configured for aerial firefighting with unusual long boom by Dart Aerospace (my pics below) https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d935bd3ef5.jpg https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ea74d8c5db.jpg https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0afde895b9.jpg https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9705c43653.jpg https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....04846ad04a.jpg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2781d9c59d.jpg cheers |
Can anyone explain to this amateur why, with the budget available to it, the USAF is flying 62-year-old aircraft on daily missions in a combat zone?
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The long boom is necessary to limit the rotor-tip vortices ...
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Originally Posted by El Grifo
(Post 12051190)
......... Since england wrote the suicide note to Europe, they appear to be cast adrift on a sea of misfortune !
That includes, but is certainly not limited to, the continual decline in our Armed Forces meaning that we have to scrabble around to send a ship, belatedly, to the Med. That issue has its roots back in the SDR in 2010. Today, the decline in the relevance of the UK military in Europe is more to do with the fact that much of Europe is actually spending real money to upgrade their warfighting capability while the UK Government are basically only making "promises" of future spending ...... maybe ........ "if the economy allows" (or some such caveat I saw being trotted out) and, in practical terms, we are left with a legacy of decades of under-investment. There is some new money but, how many months late is the Defence Investment Plan so we know what is actually being funded and when? And I wonder if the delay is because the Govt didn't realise just how unprepared the Armed Forces find themselves to meet the Strategic Defence Review from last year and so how much it will actually cost to close the capability gaps? And that includes the very significant "new face of warfare" we have seen in the Ukraine War, and now being amplified big-time by the tactics employed by Iran (to get back on topic!!). Add in the current unpredictability as to what the US actually thinks (OK, it's CiC!) on a day-to-day, if not hour-to-hour basis about, seemingly, anything..... All that's done is make a bad situation worse - for everyone! So, to blame the whole sorry mess on a "suicide note", even remotely, misses the real, long-standing, Government-wide issues of the last few decades. Well, that's my view of it at all! :ok: Edited to add: Dreadful news re the tanker crew in Iraq. Irrespective of rights/wrongs/politics/egos/etc, we have guys and gals who are putting their lives on the line hour by hour on Duty. Watching just the "visible" manifestation of the Iran war, the constant flow of even just the C17's and KC135's, is quite sobering. |
Originally Posted by sycamore
(Post 12051283)
The long boom is necessary to limit the rotor-tip vortices ...
There are some very good reasons for the X-O-S sized in-flight refuelling probe, there is a great video of an MH-53 demonstrating one of the reasons. |
Originally Posted by snarkle
(Post 12051277)
Can anyone explain to this amateur why, with the budget available to it, the USAF is flying 62-year-old aircraft on daily missions in a combat zone?
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Originally Posted by snarkle
(Post 12051277)
Can anyone explain to this amateur why, with the budget available to it, the USAF is flying 62-year-old aircraft on daily missions in a combat zone?
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
(Post 12051341)
I assume you are referring to KC-135s; because they exist and they work? B-52s are expected to fly for 100 years....
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Originally Posted by nonsense
(Post 12051346)
Because unlike commercial transport aircraft, they do not spend 50%-60% of the time day in, day out, flying.
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav
(Post 12051353)
I don’t remember exactly when they originally planned to phase out as the new KC-46 was to be acquired, but that’s been delayed due to serious deficiencies, some of which are still unresolved.
Big thanks, too, to everyone who posts here. I'm mostly a lurker, but often get a better handle on geopolitics from PPRuNe than from the nightly news. |
Originally Posted by snarkle
(Post 12051277)
Can anyone explain to this amateur why, with the budget available to it, the USAF is flying 62-year-old aircraft on daily missions in a combat zone?
And I can´t see any B-52 flying over countries which have a reasonable working air defence system. Seems like only countries which are second or third tier opponents get it. |
KC135 vs KC46
The KC46 is in service already. When you look down on an apron full of US tankers the first thing you notice is the size difference. The 135 looks miniature in comparison to its successor. The same would have been true if the A330 had actually made it into USAF service.
BV |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12051054)
Only if it was deliberate, but it wasn’t.
Blame hasn’t yet been acknowledged, just a preliminary report which says the evidence points to it have been a deliberately aimed Tomahawk rather than faulty navigation or damage to the missile. Evidence suggests that old intelligence showed the building as being part of the targeted military compound, the target list not having been updated since it became a school. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/o...ool-rcna262967 Presumably a formal apology will follow the final report. What action will follow the final report remains to be seen. I would assume it would judged to be one of the things that occur in the fog of war unless someone was remiss in assessing intelligence and updating the target database. It wasn't a 'drop short' or accidental hit - and as for the knee jerk reaction from the administration that it was an Iranian own-goal can nobody tell the truth any more!!!! What would be the reaction if (heaven forbid) an Iranian terrorist group blew up a school in DC because it use to be a DoD building but they hadn't updated their int? |
KC135 has done , and still is doing, a great job
AAR can be hairy! America - finish the job - get rid of the Mullahs whilst you have the chance . no other option UK and Europe = give all the help you can . |
Originally Posted by mahogany bob
(Post 12051439)
KC135 has done , and still is doing, a great job
AAR can be hairy! America - finish the job - get rid of the Mullahs whilst you have the chance . no other option UK and Europe = give all the help you can . |
There’s been rumours of Bibi’s demise for a few days now. So earlier today he appeared on Israeli TV. Or did he? AI has never done well with fingers. Where exactly is Bibi?
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e2274e114.jpeg |
Originally Posted by mahogany bob
(Post 12051439)
KC135 has done , and still is doing, a great job
AAR can be hairy! America - finish the job - get rid of the Mullahs whilst you have the chance . no other option UK and Europe = give all the help you can . |
Originally Posted by brokenagain
(Post 12051459)
There’s been rumours of Bibi’s demise for a few days now. So earlier today he appeared on Israeli TV. Or did he? AI has never done well with fingers. Where exactly is Bibi?
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Second Fairford Bomber Mission? #FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY --- Three US tankers have gotten airborne from RAF Mildenhall (EGUN) and are flying towards RAF Fairford (EGVA) now potentially to meet up with bombers for another mission to Iran under #OperationEpicFury KC-135T "PETRO13" 59-1470 #AE04C3 KC-135T "PETRO14" 59-1464 #AE0659 KC-135T "PETRO15" 58-0095 #AE04FD 08:29 FLIP 61 flt x 3 USAF B-52H Inbound to RAF Fairford from CONUS via Iran. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....34e5e6b464.png |
Video
This is Israeli Air Force footage of drones and jets blowing up Basij checkpoints all around Tehran today, based on tips called in by Iranian citizens. A revolution with air support against a regime with no air defence. A Basij checkpoint has been obliterated. At least ten checkpoints like this were attacked overnight. • Intelligence suggests Iranian civilians are helping identify checkpoints and regime hideouts. • The Basij are the regime’s street-level enforcers used to suppress the population. |
Doesn't mean they got them of course - but this and the strikes on the Basij posts shows it's dangerous to show your face on the streets of Iran if you're part of the regime....
Video An explosion was reported in Tehran moments ago, following a reported airstrike near a pro-regime protest attended by multiple high-ranking Iranian officials. General Ahmad-Reza Radan and Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, were both present at the march, according to Iranian state media. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....517f319267.png |
He wouldn't, would he?
Video extract of Fox TV report. UST IN: Iran moved its uranium into a mountain. The biggest conventional bomb on Earth cannot reach it. Fox News reported on 11th March, citing US intelligence, that Iran has relocated its remaining enriched uranium stockpile to the facility known as Pickaxe Mountain, Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, a tunnel complex buried 80 to 100 metres deep in granite bedrock one mile south of Natanz. CSIS satellite imagery from February confirms accelerated construction: multiple tunnel portals, concrete sarcophagus shields over entrances, security walls, heavy machinery, and spoil piles indicating rapid interior expansion since the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s above-ground enrichment infrastructure. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the weapon that hit Parchin, weighs 30,000 pounds. It penetrates up to 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Granite is neither earth nor concrete. It is igneous rock with a compressive strength that exceeds both. One hundred metres of granite is 328 feet. The GBU-57’s maximum earth penetration is 200 feet. The uranium sits 128 feet beyond the reach of the most powerful conventional weapon the United States possesses. Fourteen GBU-57s were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites during Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025. The strikes destroyed centrifuge halls. They did not destroy the programme. They taught Iran where the ceiling was, and Iran built beneath it. Every bomb that hit Fordow and Natanz was a lesson in depth. Pickaxe Mountain is the final exam: a facility designed specifically to survive the weapon designed specifically to destroy it. The IAEA estimated 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the war. After the strikes, Grossi assessed approximately 200 kilograms may remain. That material, seven to eleven nuclear weapons’ worth at one week’s further enrichment, is now inside a granite mountain that no bomb can penetrate and no inspector can enter because Iran has denied IAEA access to every site struck since 28 February. The war’s existential minimum was defined by Defence Secretary Hegseth: no nukes. The nuclear infrastructure must be destroyed with or without regime change. The GBU-57 was the instrument. Pickaxe Mountain is the limit. The instrument has met a material it cannot defeat. The existential minimum has hit a ceiling of stone. What remains is a decision the United States has never made in the nuclear age. The material cannot be destroyed from the air. It can only be reached through the door. Special forces insertion into a tunnel complex defended by IRGC units operating under the Mosaic Doctrine, with sealed orders, inside a country whose 31 autonomous commands have been firing continuously for fourteen days. The Pentagon is weighing this option. Fox’s Jesse Watters reported it as a “near-impenetrable site requiring potential special forces insertion.” The language is careful. The implication is not. A ground operation to seize enriched uranium from a granite bunker inside hostile territory would be the most consequential special forces mission since Abbottabad. Except Abbottabad was one compound, one target, one night. Pickaxe Mountain is a tunnel system buried under 100 metres of rock, defended by a military that cannot surrender because its commander is a wounded man issuing orders from a hospital bed through a television anchor, and its doctrine was designed to fight without him. The bomb cannot reach it. The inspectors cannot enter it. The Supreme Leader will not open it.... And the mountain does not negotiate. |
A-10s getting to join in again....
Video Reports of U.S. strikes on Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) positions in Iraq tonight. Footage shows USAF A-10s reportedly targeting PMF positions in northcentral Iraq. |
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced the death of Chief Warrant Officer Arnaud Frion from Varces-Alličres-et-Risset, serving with the 7th Battalion of the French Army’s elite Chasseurs Alpins, following an Iranian drone attack earlier tonight against a joint base near Erbil, Northern Iraq, which injured at least six servicemembers with the French Armed Forces. |
Part of ORAC's post:
The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the weapon that hit Parchin, weighs 30,000 pounds. It penetrates up to 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Granite is neither earth nor concrete. It is igneous rock with a compressive strength that exceeds both. One hundred metres of granite is 328 feet. The GBU-57’s maximum earth penetration is 200 feet. The uranium sits 128 feet beyond the reach of the most powerful conventional weapon the United States possesses. But dropping ANOTHER GBU-57 into the crater of the first, which has already removed 200ft of cover, could provide the means to reach that depth, especially as the shock waves from each might have caused collapses throughout the structures - if they exist.... The World has watched Iran over the last 40+ years develop a "religious" ideology casting the US as "The Great Satan"and, by extension Europe, as their enemy. We were too Woke and afraid of "upsetting Islamic Nations" to suggest that the Iranian view was warped and bore little relation to the actual words of the Prophet or the way Islam should be regarded. The Gulf States watched and did little to counter that the Iranian "Islamic" model was a threat to moderate Islam or to the teachings of Islam. Treating women as chattels to produce as many offspring; to make them believe the Prophet neeeded them to cover their hair, wear shapeles bags and be cowed by any man does no credit to Islam. Perhaps Iranian women might be the ones to defy the Ayatollahs and force regime change, once the militias have been reduced. |
Turkey reporting a third Iranian MRBM engaged by "NATO assets deployed in the eastern Mediterranean. I would presume either another THAAD or Arliegh-Burke AEGIS BMD intercept.
Have to wonder where the THAAD being redeployed from Korea willmbe based. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a77987e43f.png From the last intercept about 4 days ago: https://unn.ua/en/news/nato-intercep...towards-turkey ".....Debris from the munition landed in Gaziantep province in southern Turkey, "approximately 150 kilometers (93 miles) from the Incirlik Air Base — where hundreds of US military personnel are stationed and where US nuclear weapons are widely believed to be stored — and about 200 kilometers from an advanced NATO radar system in Kurecik used to support Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile systems"." |
It's not about the military might, it's about turning the tide of public opinion against you until you go home. 7 US soldiers. 1 French soldier. 6 US aircrew. RIP. |
Originally Posted by gums
(Post 12051258)
Salute!
Thnx ORAC, Lonewolf, et al for recognizing the fog of war RE: the short round that struck a school. Sadly, sierra happens, and we can only try to find out why and then do our best to prevents it from happening again. The ROE and the extrŕordinary efforts by the planners and actual delivery folks on one side to minimize collateral casualties and damage in this conflict is beyond pale. Yet sierra happens, and there is no reason to disregard actaing upon poor intell or even intentional "poor" intell by nefarious parties. Happened to me a few dozen klicks nw of Plieku in 1968 when my wingie and I dropped on a small ville supposedly harboring an enemy big guy. Turned out it was a political enemy of the provence chief! Talk about feeling low! It is the second worst thing to find out other than you snuffed a bunch of your friends. Despite the unnerving accuracy of the stuff nowadays that I would love to have had back then and on my second chapter, things have not evolved to achieve what most of the innocent critics think is possible. Gums reminds all who have not experienced the opportunity to mistakenly drop a short round. Maybe Mogs can comment from his adventure in the 80's. out, Another Islander was injured when a pair of GR3s bombed his grass strip to deny its use by Pucaras. He said that if only we had asked, he would have ploughed it up for us! Mog |
Earlier in this thread I mentioned the East / West pipeline through the Empty Quarter to KSA Red Sea ports, notably Yanbu. There are reports now in the maritime trade press of a large number of Chinese VLCCs heading for the Red Sea and, if I remember correctly, some of the Yanbu facilities are at least partly Chinese owned.
Add to the equation reports/rumours of Chinese war canoes in the Indian Ocean and the threat of Houthi attack and things in the Red Sea may well become interesting. Also 2 million bbl up for auction fob at Yanbu. Price might be a tad high. For some background. https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156583...ne-contingency Continuing the maritime theme, it looks as the CVN-77 has finished its workup and, along with CSG-10 is entering - or has already entered - the Mediterranean. |
Pentagon Brief - 13 Mar 26
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Originally Posted by larssnowpharter
(Post 12051602)
Earlier in this thread I mentioned the East / West pipeline through the Empty Quarter to KSA Red Sea ports, notably Yanbu. There are reports now in the maritime trade press of a large number of Chinese VLCCs heading for the Red Sea and, if I remember correctly, some of the Yanbu facilities are at least partly Chinese owned.
Add to the equation reports/rumours of Chinese war canoes in the Indian Ocean and the threat of Houthi attack and things in the Red Sea may well become interesting. Also 2 million bbl up for auction fob at Yanbu. Price might be a tad high. For some background. https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156583...ne-contingency Continuing the maritime theme, it looks as the CVN-77 has finished its workup and, along with CSG-10 is entering - or has already entered - the Mediterranean. |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 12051165)
They've also claimed they're going to assassinate Trump (they'll need to get in line - people have been trying to assassinate Trump for years....).
Heard from a friend who spent a career in the USAF that KC-135 don't have a way to bail out. That left me stunned. A decade or so ago I think a KC-135 was lost over Afghanistan, and we discussed it here at PPRuNe. (Yeah, 2013, Dutch Roll, tail separated, OCF...) Anybody know about the bail out options for the KC-135? It seems odd to me that it would be left out. (Chock Puller: thank you for the post and picture). The USAF projected that E and R models have lifetime flying hour limits of 36,000 and 39,000 hours, respectively. Accordingly, only a few KC-135s would reach these limits by 2040, when some aircraft would be about 80 years old. A 2005 USAF study estimated that KC-135Es upgraded to the R standard could remain in use until 2030. |
Another B1B passed overhead of Frome Somerset a few minutes ago ex Fairford very noticeable noise wise , havent seen or heard any B52s on their way from there as yet . They are not uncommon visitors during my time in Somerset but until now had never seen or more likely heard the B1s . Would they use a single aircraft for a special strike? earlier in the week it was unit of three.
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Err its de rigeur to comment when they’re on the way back, not outbound i.e. to do our bit for opsec
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