My understanding is that the blockade remains. If what I'm reading is correct, the impact on Iran's economy of not being able to export oil will soon be devastating. Not only are they running out of money, they are running out of places to store the oil, and once they shutdown production, it's a several month process to bring it back on-line.

Woofy, I have my popcorn, and marshmallows prepped. I am hoping the next operations name is more entertaining than the last one, and hope it isn't merely 2.0.

The US troops have performed well throughout this FURRY. Even Israel started off with a rather remarkably effective decapitation of manglement downtown, but, that tends to be a tough way to win hearts and minds. Darned if they didn't do it well though. The consequential response by Iran hopefully did not surprise anyone in Tel Aviv, or DC. Even making a point of the irritation of Iran with their regional neighbours is not surprising, a few of them are new whacks, but, then if your dear leader had just been given a shedful of virgins a year or two early, a bit of annoyance is to be expected. What was a surprise was the level of force protection of the KC's and the E3, that was reminiscent of Ford Island at 07:50 on 7 DEC a few years back, from the country whose Prime Minister was just reminded that her country knew a thing or two about surprise... a few days after Israel had taken the rather impolite action of taking out the boss of the establishment. Was the OEM having a say on increasing new sales? BD just announced they got an extra 100+ KC46A orders, seems there is a need.

The gong is going to ring again shortly, Would suspect that in the second round, Iran will certainly make a point of not accepting ceasefires within the 60 days, they can read and most Iranians I have met in aviation have impeccable English, one or two were also exceptional instructors with encyclopaedic knowledge of some rather obscure parts of the Bus and the Boing... (they also didn't live in Teheran anymore, they were productive members of various countries, US, Canada, Australia, Germany etc... They are not stupid, they do have strange management, but then, they are not Robinson Crusoe on that score.

The shuttering of the larder by Iran should not have surprised anyone, but, have to say, the secondary blockade was a really cool move from the other side of the Potomac. It's a cross between something that Sun Tsu might have given a thumbs up, and shadenfreud, that Christoph Starke, could have used in his treatise, "Synopsis bibliothecae exegeticae in Vetus Testamentum," way back in 1750., (for you navy guys that is 10 to 8,, for the Marines, its after mealtime, and before lights out, for AF dudes like Gums, Mickeys big hand is... etc).

The war is over!, 4" bold font headlines, saw it on FOX!, gotta be true. Good to know.

Always thanks deserved to ORAC; the Marines are probably hoping the food is better in Teheran, or Banda Abass, than on the LHAs and LHD's.

Catcha-22 señor.

One problem is that the value of any agreement/treaty depends entirely on the long term integrity and faithfulness of the parties.
Iran is unlikely to EVER be a reliable party to an agreement, especially if they don't believe in it, least of all one the USA wants.
Lately, unfortunately, the USA has shown little reliability or integrity as party to an agreement/treaty either, even with reliable allies. Sometimes yes, sometimes not, and hardly the same two days in a row.

Which makes a diplomatic solution extremely difficult and the resumption of violence most likely.

Yeah, that's how it looks, and I guess the attempts by third parties have foundered. This "we'll do it by phone call" approach is loaded with risk. I am not convinced that this isn't a stalling tactic to let the ARG get into position....we'll see.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....60e20f6cfe.png
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Three more rounds of 60 day hostilities before midterms?
 

With any other POTUS, Congress would be asked for approval to continue. With 47 I would not be surprised to see truces declared for a week or so at 60 day intervals.

But it may be increasingly difficult to wrest funds from Congress.

It appears that Iran are playing the US at their own game in the Strait of Hormuz.

The USN ships are positioned within the Gulf of Oman.

The Iranians have had a straight line of ships that stretch from Khasab directly north towards Ramchah for the last couple of days, thus totally blocking all escape routes out of the Persian Gulf apart from the "toll route" north of Larak Island. Even the route taken by the six cruise ships that hugged the Khasab Peninsular and thus in Omani waters has 3 Iranian ships effectively blocking the track.

The names of the ships, all are Iranian registered / flagged, are Danial Darya Navard, Nahang 96, 17847, Bari 17442, Herjran 7737, 10702, Bari 11927 and Daryadar. They are listed as being general cargo or tugs.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc86e1bd9e.png

BonnieLass The ships are certainly there, according to Marine Traffic, unless there's been deliberate Iranian spoofing. If they really are cargo vessels, what is their presence intended to achieve? Unless someone has armed them in some way, they have no way of blocking other vessels. Does Iran have enough heavy munitions to pack old ships with explosive and use them as bomb threats?

I wonder if he told the Pentagon first?

I guess we’ll find out this week if the Iranians did plant mines or not.

From all reports a cokorrhendive mine sweep and removal before shipping can move freely again should take about 6 months* - if the right ships and assets were in place.

I think more a cases belli for when the Iranians don’t cooperate and/or the first ship hits a mine.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....53ad325f0.jpeg
* https://english.alarabiya.net/News/m...-months-report

https://www.twz.com/sea/u-s-navy-min...ved-to-pacific

Dire Straits …
 

Humm …Project Freedom…

I am sure some folks will have other names for it.

I wonder what lucky ship will lead the parade.

Well that didn't take long to get another 60 day churn going.

Would have thought Project Famine was more fitting.

As far as the other countries not being involved, it would be far quicker to note the countries that are involved... there is:

1. Israel, (not too many boats floating around in those waters....
2. USA, there are 5 US flagged merchant ships stuck in the tub, waiting for the plug to be popped.
3. Iran.

Other than that, every other guest to this party, didn't get the RSVP. The long term problems remain global economic impact, as the little bit, and the disruption to food in a lot of countries that might take an exception to the humanitarian efforts that have occurred so far, of trashing a substantial amount of global fertiliser.

Going to get worse before it gets better, and the probability of Iran dropping their nuclear program is a coin toss still.

Because calling it ‘Operation Manipulate the Markets on Monday Morning Before They Open’ would be too obvious.

Sal has posted a new What is Going on with Shipping.
The situation seens to be once again in a “ State of Flux!” or “All fluxed Up! “

AirScotia Skiffs do not usually have AIS transponders....or at least very rarely are they fitted or turned on. The line of cargo vessels...given how Iran have operated in the past...could be the proverbial "mother ships" with a few skiffs moored to them and crews waiting for movement to go and engage with whatever is out there. Granted in a different part of the region, USS Cole in 2000 gives an idea of what can be done with a skiff and a crew of radical followers. The fact that there is a definite line of ships, all Iranian registered and flagged along with the already known skiff use both for boarding and physically attacking ships, it really would not be beyond the realms of probability that Iran have essentially boobytrapped the exit of the Strait.

No mines needed, just some highly radicalised skiff crews using well positioned cargo ships to hide behind and you will get the ultimate damage to anything that tries to leave...or enter the Strait (entering, including USN or any other nationality of Navy). Looking at the area this morning there are more ships of similar size arriving in that line, average length is 65m which is plenty of space for skiffs to hide behind. We have to remember that skiff hiding behind cargo ships is not a new thing for the Iranians, they did it during the Iran vs Iraq war, they tried it during both Gulf Wars.....they are very good at this sort of thing. I fear Trump has, again, underestimated his opponant.

It also must be said that piracy and attempted piracy has increased in activity in recent days at Bab-el-Mandeb which potentially can choke off the Red Sea access from the Gulf of Aden. Houthi territory and Houthi are aligned with Iran and they too are using countless numbers of skiffs to harrass shipping on a now daily basis. Last time it went up like this, multinational Navies were involved in escort duties (I experienced that myself in 2010 and the ship I was aboard had the most unusual escort ships...South Korean and North Korean warships)

So much for peaceful......the skiffs are out and about again in the Strait....and ships ordered by Iran to move from current anchorages away from the line of cargo ships forming across the Strait from Khasab north to Larak / Ramchah, that is indicative of the Iranians using those cargo ships as masks and shadow hiding places for skiffs.

People might try and think that this is an innocent movement of ships into an almost straight line, but it has been done before by Iran and there has been an increase of activity in the Bab-el-Mandab area too around the Yemeni entry point to the Red Sea

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1afbc30d2d.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1967a52f04.png
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5d1147c0ba.png
These are reports from the Bab-el-Mandab area


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....82739d867d.png
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....16abdf7ec8.png
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dccc5098f8.png
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....809aa64ffa.png
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d34f85b98d.png
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc5da0d5f7.png

Activity within both crucial Straits is definitely increasing and it really is not friendly at all.

I might be putting two and two together and making five but I see this latest pronouncement from Trump for a "humanitarian" escorting of trapped ships as a move designed to goad the IRGC to attack the US escorts and give him an opportunity to re-enter a hot war without getting congressional approval.

I may be entirely wrong, perhaps the real intent is to re-open the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, then again whatever the motives Trump could just TACO again.

The next 24 hours could be interesting.

I don't think you are wrong...

I have posted a couple of things already that seem to prove that the Iranians (and Houthi) could be organising something (my posts have been shifted to the Military section's Iran thread that I cannot access to update).

Over the last few days there has been an almost straight line of small to medium cargo ships, average length of 65m, forming a bow to stern line from Khasab in Omani waters to Ramcheh in Iran. After being there for 24 hours the ships go dark on AIS. All tankers, containerships etc anchored nearby have been ordered by Iran to move away from the line of ships and skiffs have been reportedly harrassing ships near to that line according to UKMTO monitoring. Those lined up cargo ships are perfect cover for skiff attack parties, lying in wait for...perhaps...the USN to enter the Strait of Hormuz, sail round the Khasab Peninsular and straight into a potential ambush from the line of cargo ships / skiffs. This tactic was used by Iran before. During the Iran / Iraq war it was very effective, Iran also tried it during the two Gulf Wars (afterall Iran and Iraq are still not friendly neighbours). To give an example of the damage that can be done, look back to the USS Cole.

Added to this, the UKMTO are also reporting that attempted piracy and general harrassment is increasing at the other Middle East choke point...Bab-el-Mandab. Given that Houthi are aligned with Iran, it is not an impossible scenario to consider both choke points...Bab-el-Mandab / Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz being simultaneously subjected to unfriendly action.

Trump has used his social media to say that he intends using the USN for escorting shipping out of the Persian Gulf.....the internet might be down in Iran but they have Allies who can pass the messages on to them. It might seem far fetched to have an Iranian blockade armed to the teeth within the Persian Gulf and the Houthi increasing their attacks in Bab-el-Mandab but I don't think it should be discounted that the USN and anyone else could be sailing into a trap of devastating scale.

There are more ways to skin a cat, if you'll forgive the idiom.

We should probably assume that the anchored ships are Iranian lookout and intelligence stations at minimum, if not roro mother ships for power boats.
If the US can easily sink those fast drug boats in the Caribbean, then surely they can sink these Iranian missile-launching speedboats, even those reputedly able to do 200+ kph. And could the Navy 'escort' for the line of exiting ships not be a gaggle of helicopter gunships, able to land on many of their decks if necessary?

Thanks, BonnieLass. Presumably the US could bomb those cargo vessels/mother ships? Sal Mercogliano also reports renewed attacks from Somalia, where they're running out of fuel faster than anyone, and seem to be just stealing tankers. I wonder how long before other countries do that?

Latest report in The Guardian:-

Denied by CENTCOM.

CENTCOM denied Missiles. Video released by Iran looks more like a mine.

The line is increasing. Over the last few days there have been around 25 to 30 ships being anchored stern to bow on that exact same line from Khasab to Ramchah. As soon as they get to their spot in the line, the AIS is being turned off, it takes exactly 24 hours for the AIS signal to fade off the charts.

Ships entering from the Gulf of Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz will not see the line of Iranian ships until they turn into the Persian Gulf at the top of the Khasab Peninsular, they will not show up on radar or AIS systems. The Iranians perfected this tactic during the Iran vs Iraq war, they used an identical means to block the route from the Persian Gulf to Umm Qasr and Khor-al-Zubair ports with cargo ships lined up across from Shatt-al-Arab to Grand Faw / Bubyan Island.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d91d350b03.png


Someone seriously needs to stop Trump broadcasting what is being done via his social media, he is potentially endangering his own Naval personnel and the lives of those on the civilian ships. No matter how much the US denies that their ships are attacked, it stands to reason that they have to say don't they? They cannot admit openly that they have been attacked due to Trumps constant announcements that Iran has no Navy, no bombs etc. They cannot control what they cannot see til it is too late to react, USS Cole proved that.

I don't think the Houthis are doing this independently.

For ATNotts: not going to bet against your assessment.

I suspect there are various countries around the world that want nothing to do with the Straits of Hormuz situation who will nonetheless find they are able to provide naval assets, and, more importantly, have the willingness, to help tackle the issue of Somali piracy.

They do. However as has been seen before, the radar signature and the actual vessel can differ. There have already been cases of merchant ships that had been anchored close to the Khasab - Ramchah line being ordered via VHF radio by Iran to move away from that line of ships, at least one was fired upon in the last 24 hours (thankfully no-one hurt and no damage done). The skiffs have also been harrassing ships that do not move away fast enough. It appears that any vessel within sight range of the line is being shifted away. Ships that have been anchored off Ras Al Khaimah are being ordered out of that area by Iran.

The average length of the cargo ships in the line is 65m, ample space to hide skiffs in its shadow. Once AIS is turned off the ship will become invisible, hence why it is a legal obligation to leave the system switched on even at anchor. These Iranian cargo ships are going dark as soon as they have anchored, the AIS signals are showing til 24 hours pass, after that unless you actually look for them via AIS (if you know their IMO identification or name) you will be hard pressed to see them and the skiffs rarely if ever have AIS transponders.

At the same time that Iran has been building the line of ships on the Khasab-Ramchah line, the Houthi have increased their harrassment and attempted hijacking at Bab-el-Mandab. Given that the Houthi are aligned with Iran, it is more than coincidental that both major shipping route choke points are experiencing raised activity levels. All of the above is being confirmed by UKMTO.

Link to video?

A site someone sent me.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

There have been anti-Somali-pirate flotillas in the past, many of them multinational, but the addition of the Houthi loonies to the problem may make some of the ones with weaker spines unwilling to participate.
We'll see.
Hopefully my pessimism is ill founded.

Given that Iran seems to be lobbing missiles at UAE again and is claiming to have fired ‘warning shots’ at a US destroyer etc. is it time to take the gloves off again ?

FONOPS is necessary unless the logistics avoids the area where possible, which would be a fair impact to the global economy. small boats are a big enough tactical pain, but drones are far more problematic, if the intent is not piracy but disruption. Pirates make concentration of force more effective, convoys make sense. The drones make convoys great targets, but also concentrate anti drone capabilities.

As much fun as pushing back on the drone drivers is, that would involve de-populating Yemen, and Somalia, which would raise eyebrows. Short of that, then convoys and far more anti drone capability is necessary, and that is all well and good until Yemen plonks some mines in the sea ways on the east channel at least.

As far as coalitions are concerned, the greatest impediment to such action comes from the strategic time frame that now exists with the USA, which currently alters about 4-5 times a day, and sometime more frequently, in the same sentence. An example of why this is a problem is the latching that is occurring at present of some perceived slight by a single leader that then results in a response in retribution that can be argued as being a self harm event... such as a beef on Germany being disinclined in joining a fight in Iran that they were not consulted in before the action, and that response resulting in the withdrawal of US troops from Germany with a 5,000 man initial drawdown, and comments that they will be much greater. It is a strange season where an alliance with the US may very well then include a relationship with Putin's Russia, which is still largely distrusted and reviled as an regime that has been conducting war crimes for an extended period, arguably since 1993. When the friend of your friend is a criminal, there is a bit of reserve; alliances of that sort led to WW-1.

Epic Goat 2
 

Looks like Part Deux has got off to zippy start with yet again Iran taking it to UAE.

It is difficult to believe there is actually a plan involved in this latest US effort, unless of course torching the Middle East oil industry is the plan.

Listened to a US Gov guy on CNBC today waxing lyrical about how US and Venezuela could replace lost oil from Gulf.

Ho hum.

sorry, unable to download video from i but here is a screenshot - no belief in validity. It does not look like Missiles
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc6bd5f6c.jpeg

Looks dubious to me - any of our resident navy experts care to weigh in on the type?

What is being reported is that the US have sunk several small boats.

On Fox

And from the Arab Times.

BillS

Looks like an Oliver Hazard Perry class, which the USN no longer use, and images look like a sinkex in 2016 (USS Thach?)?

USS Samuel B Roberts FFG-58 - Perry Class -
Damaged by Iranian mine 1988 - with no loss of life.
Repaired and decommissioned about 2015.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2a9d526f84.png​​​​​​​

USN, obliquely, confirming the Strait has been mined.......

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5c634e56d7.png