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Speculating on how the US military could secure the Straights, one assumes the surface threat from any remaining naval vessels or skiffs etc would be relatively easily dealt with from the air with likes of Predator, Apache, fast air etc. Drones would be a little more problematic given their size and ease of launch; one would imagine every building in Bander Abbas and beyond could be abase to store & potentially launch them (is the US planning to level the city?). Ballistic missiles I would contend are less of a threat unless they have some form of terminal guidance, which someone here has reported that some do. Given the relatively narrowness of the passageway artillery (tube & rocket) could also pose a problem, but unless the Iranians are super-adept at shoot & scoot this could again be dealt with from the air with relative ease.
The big threat I see is anything subsea, be it mines or UUVs. Sure, the USN could send minesweepers into the sea-way to clear a passage however these would be a prime target for the Iranians. (Sort of related question: does anyone know if any US or western warships have transited the Straights since hostilities began, also are any still present in the Persian Gulf?) |
I suspect China will, if it hasn't already, prefer to cut its own deal with Iran to get its vessels through.
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Actually if I were Xi I'd be sorely tempted to offer to escort all vessels through the straights, in exchange for the US & Israel publicly agreeing to cease all hostilities against their partner state, and for the US to withdraw their "provocative" naval forces from the Gulf.
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Anyone who thinks that the US and China have not been in regular communication with each other as the conflict has been going on is a bit naive ,I would suggest.
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I agree, but I'd contend the tone of their interactions are less than cordial.
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Originally Posted by Jobza Guddun
(Post 11562223)
Maybe it's long overdue the Emiratis dug a ship canal from Dubai to Fujairah to negate the requirement to transit the Straits of Hormuz! Not the complete solution but at least it'd undermine the Iranian grip in that area.
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Some light relief
Originally Posted by Jobza Guddun
(Post 12050566)
See, if they'd taken my advice in 2023 at #687, they'd be at least 2 miles in by now.....:E
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5b8f2f6e1.jpeg BV |
Good one Bob Viking
Hilarious. I am reminded I once read of a demented proposal made at the beginning of the Atomic Age ( when all kinds of uses for atomic power were being proposed ) to use atomic explosions as digging tools to build a replacement for the Panama Canal. Probably that idea wouldn’t fly here either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Plowshare |
As has been pointed out arent those dark thins mountains ,I f there is away thru why not build a canal some miles north which would about halve the cost of the route shown without getting much nearer Iran . What more interesting is the impact of iran attacking not petro chemical facilites but de salination plants . There is literally no natural water in the UAE and other Gulf states-what are you going to do then
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Locks are another option, albeit the tankers may require larger locks than those used in Panama. Quick look at a topo map and back-of-envelope calculation suggests around 108 locks should do the job; supplying them with water might not be completely straightforward.
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Are the Dutch preparing to send anyone to the PG to support tankers, or, was this a long scheduled exercise for general air defense training?
Nice article on the UK MoD + Royal Netherlands Navy doing a Sharpshooter exercise (Hebrides Range) featuring HNLMS De Zeven Provinciën is here.
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12050531)
Trump having to ask the Chinese for help to get him out of this mess! If this ever came to pass, which I'm confident it won't, the Chinese will extract a verrry heavy price.
Originally Posted by Frostchamber
(Post 12050535)
I suspect China will, if it hasn't already, prefer to cut its own deal with Iran to get its vessels through.
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ORAC, I note the date of that link being September 15, 2018 | 19:02
Did that idea ever get funding, or traction? |
Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan
(Post 12050481)
If the US are not going to launch a ground invasion to remove the regime then the US and Israel should target and destroy all regime oil infrastructure. No Iranian oil should be able to leave port again. If the regime is stopping everyone else shipping oil they should certainly not be able to ship their own oil. Also a total air and sea blockade of Iran. Are Iranian ports and airports still open? How about destroying the runways all port facilities. Are the US and Israel actually in this to win or just wasting time?!
Under the Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, (1977) a lawful military objective is something that: "makes an effective contribution to military action and whose destruction offers a definite military advantage". Weapons factories; Military bases; Fuel depots supplying the armed forces; Transport systems moving troops etc. Classic interpretation: civilian economic infrastructure is not normally targetable. The US DOD (DOW?) interprets the rule rather more broadly.... The US DOD Law of War Manual allows attacks on object that: sustain the enemy's ability to fight economically; generate revenue that funds the war effort; being war-sustaining targets. US doctrine cites: Oil production and export facilities; commodity production funding military operations; financial assets used to pay armed forces. Under the US DOD logic, oil infrastructure funding a state's military budget can be lawful targets. So, as the US has a particular way of looking at international law, within its ranks, it is possible to wipe out Iran's oil program. The problem is not permissive action, it is the consequences of such action, and that would be a massive response in the oil markets that would cause impressive spikes at the ballot box (gas pumps). The environmental damage would be impressive, there is not much historical evidence that Iran would not respond wherever, and however it could so it would be open season for all infrastructure in the US, and it's allies, and those allies are likely to rapidly reduce, the gulf states may not be so keep on being on the front line of the environmental, and economic disaster that would ensue. Hormuz can bottle up 20% of the global oil supply, and circumventing that adds new bottle necks, and comes with really interesting force and facility protection issues. Take out 20% of the oil supply, and the cost to the global economy would be popcorn ready stuff. So cash is king. The ICRC and ENMOD would come into play with a destruction of Iran's oil production systems, and Saddam would be replaced from the list of most impressive environmental vandals in history, but it is the implosion of the US economy which is still fairly dependent on oil and cheap oil at that, which would be the cause of any pause. Iran targeting one or two VLCCs and the occasional CNG/LNG boat is just as self destructive, not a great way of winning friends and influencing allies. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12050602)
The Salman Canal
https://www.trasportoeuropa.it/engli...d-war-in-iran/ https://gulfnews.com/world/gulf/saud...rmuz-1.1581884 “The highest altitude on the Saudi side will be 300 metres above sea level, but in Yemen or Oman, some sites will be 700 metres high,” he said. |
Did that idea ever get funding, or traction? The first link is dated the 3rd of March this year, for example, just a week ago. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12050601)
Over the past couple of days, saw some news that half a dozen ships bound for China have passed through the Strait already.
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Originally Posted by fdr
(Post 12050610)
As entertaining as that may be, it would come perilously close to being a war crime. If its oil supplies for their own military, that would be a legitimate target. There is a disagreement between the US and pretty much every other group as to what constitutes fair game.
Under the Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, (1977) a lawful military objective is something that: "makes an effective contribution to military action and whose destruction offers a definite military advantage". Weapons factories; Military bases; Fuel depots supplying the armed forces; Transport systems moving troops etc. Classic interpretation: civilian economic infrastructure is not normally targetable. The US DOD (DOW?) interprets the rule rather more broadly.... The US DOD Law of War Manual allows attacks on object that: sustain the enemy's ability to fight economically; generate revenue that funds the war effort; being war-sustaining targets. US doctrine cites: Oil production and export facilities; commodity production funding military operations; financial assets used to pay armed forces. Under the US DOD logic, oil infrastructure funding a state's military budget can be lawful targets. So, as the US has a particular way of looking at international law, within its ranks, it is possible to wipe out Iran's oil program. The problem is not permissive action, it is the consequences of such action, and that would be a massive response in the oil markets that would cause impressive spikes at the ballot box (gas pumps). The environmental damage would be impressive, there is not much historical evidence that Iran would not respond wherever, and however it could so it would be open season for all infrastructure in the US, and it's allies, and those allies are likely to rapidly reduce, the gulf states may not be so keep on being on the front line of the environmental, and economic disaster that would ensue. Hormuz can bottle up 20% of the global oil supply, and circumventing that adds new bottle necks, and comes with really interesting force and facility protection issues. Take out 20% of the oil supply, and the cost to the global economy would be popcorn ready stuff. So cash is king. The ICRC and ENMOD would come into play with a destruction of Iran's oil production systems, and Saddam would be replaced from the list of most impressive environmental vandals in history, but it is the implosion of the US economy which is still fairly dependent on oil and cheap oil at that, which would be the cause of any pause. Iran targeting one or two VLCCs and the occasional CNG/LNG boat is just as self destructive, not a great way of winning friends and influencing allies. Just seems mad that the regime can continue making money with oil sales while preventing anyone else from doing so. I think to win this the US and Israel need to be far more ruthless on the regime. |
PG canal
I can’t seriously believe anyone thinks it’s a good idea.
If Iran can block the Strait, it would only take an extra 0.01% effort to also block any canal entrance. BV |
Earlier today Iranian drones struck Oman’s largest oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
Video Video View from a cargo ship at the Omani port of Salalah this evening, surrounded by burning port facilities after an Iranian drone strike . |
Originally Posted by Ronald Reagan
(Post 12050624)
Thanks for the really well informed reply, greatly appreciated.
Just seems mad that the regime can continue making money with oil sales while preventing anyone else from doing so. I think to win this the US and Israel need to be far more ruthless on the regime. The same can be compared to protecting free movement through in both the Suez and Panama Canals. |
How well can a counterterrorism unit protect the leader from air attacks? This little profile is on the special military units (seem to be in the elite class of military units) whose mission included personal security for the Leader/Ayatollah.
An elite counterterrorism unit has been deployed to protect Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei...The force, known as NOPO — Iran’s black-clad Counterterrorism Special Force — was assigned to safeguard the leader after a U.S.-Israel strike on a Tehran compound on Feb. 28 killed the elder Khamenei amid the start of Operation Epic Fury. "With Khamenei gone, NOPO will now be protecting Mojtaba Khamenei," Ali Safavi, an official with the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, or NCRI said. The force, formed in 1991, was initially the "nucleus" of the IRGC’s 28th Ruhollah (Khomeini’s first name) Division, according to Safavi, and typically handles hostage rescue operations. The history of the unit also includes deployments against internal security threats, and it has often been called on to suppress protests. "NOPO is the Farsi acronym for Nirouyeh Vijeh Pasdaran Velayat, which translates into the Special Force to Protect the Supreme Leader," Safavi further explained. Over time, NOPO has evolved into a highly specialized unit distinct from the broader Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the military branch established in 1979 to defend the Islamic Republic and its leadership from internal and external threats. "The NOPO is composed of six brigades only. Four are stationed in Tehran, one in Mashhad and one in Isfahan," Safavi said. "They are far more lethal, ruthless and well-trained than the IRGC," he claimed before describing how the brigade’s loyalty was exclusively to the Supreme Leader. "This force was only used for the protection of Khamenei," Safavi continued. "They are very well equipped. Khamenei did not trust any other security force for his protection." Safavi also said some members of the unit were killed in Ali Khamenei's assassination but that the force remains fully operational. "Some of the NOPO were killed when Khamenei was killed, but the fact is that they are now involved in the suppressive and security measures the regime has also undertaken in recent days to prevent any outbreak of protests," Safavi said. The elite force’s activities extend beyond personal protection in times of crisis, Safavi added. "But in times of crisis, such as what happened during the January uprising, they were heavily involved in opening fire on the protesters," he said. This comes amid reports that hundreds of NOPO members have also been widely deployed around prisons in Iran that are holding political detainees. "Hundreds of suppressive forces are widely deployed around the prison. In Ghezel Hesar Prison," the NCRI said in a statement. On Tuesday, March 3, 2026, following the bombing of a military center near Mahabad Prison, prisoners whose ward doors had been locked protested and set fire to their blankets, demanding their release under wartime conditions. "Suppressive forces responded by firing tear gas into the ward," the NCRI reported. |
Over 42 million account holders…..
Jerusalem_Post: The data center of Bank Sepah, Iran’s largest bank responsible for paying salaries to members of the Iranian military and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been hit. This is potentially massive. Here's why the Bank Sepah data center hit matters far beyond delayed paychecks: 1/ Iran is already in the middle of a severe cash liquidity crisis. As of Jan 2026, banks were running out of physical banknotes daily, with informal withdrawal caps of just $18–$30/day. Cash in circulation surged 49% YoY due to panic hoarding. The regime simply cannot pivot to cash payments, there isn't enough physical currency in the system. 2/ Bank Sepah isn't just "a bank." In 2019-2020, five IRGC/Basij-affiliated banks, Ansar Bank, Mehr Eqtesad Bank (IRGC), Ghavamin Bank (police), Hekmat Iranian Bank, and Kosar Credit Institution (defense ministry), were all merged into Bank Sepah. Their ~1,800 branches still operate nationwide. This strike cripples the IRGC's consolidated financial backbone. 3/ Bank Sepah maintains foreign branches in Paris, Rome, Frankfurt, and a wholly-owned subsidiary, Bank Sepah International plc in London. This disruption may cut access between Tehran HQ and those foreign operations, presenting a unique window for host governments to freeze operations and for staff to defect. 4/ Mid and low-level IRGC and Basij forces depend on government salaries. If they don't get paid, their willingness to brutally suppress protesters, as they did in the Jan 2026 crackdown killing thousands, is seriously undermined. Unpaid security forces are unreliable security forces. 5/ BUT; the senior IRGC leadership doesn't rely on salaries. The IRGC controls an estimated $30–$50 billion in annual economic turnover across oil, construction, telecom, agriculture, and smuggling. Their budget just tripled to $12.4B in direct oil revenue. IRGC-affiliated foundations account for over half of Iran's GDP. 6/ So while hitting Bank Sepah disrupts the regime's ability to pay its foot soldiers, the IRGC's hands must be cut from across Iran's entire economy — their construction monopolies (Khatam al-Anbiya), their crypto operations ($3B+ in 2025), their smuggling networks, and their shadow banking. Sanctions must target the empire, not just the salary line. |
Originally Posted by Hangarless
(Post 12050631)
The whole crux of the issue. The Strait is of such importance to the entire world economy that someone had to destroy the Iranians ability hold the whole world to ransom by choosing who passes and who does not.
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12050638)
So what's the plan? Create some sort of DMZ down the northern periphery of the Straits? That's a whole magnitude of order more challenging than the current "mission", whatever it is (its ironic how all the talk about enriched uranium and ballistic missiles seem to be have been demoted to a footnote).
Interestingly Matt Whittaker, the NATO Ambassador, was on Fox a few minutes ago talking about how China may become part of the "free flow" Multi-National enforcement group. I'll find the clip when it comes up and post it. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12050630)
Earlier today Iranian drones struck Oman’s largest oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
Video Video |
Originally Posted by Bob Viking
(Post 12050575)
Saw this and thought of your post…
BV |
Nutty
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 12050652)
I cannot understand why Saudi does not run a pipeline to the Red Sea and bypass it all, or Saudi, Kuwait, UAE and Oman could work together and build a pipeline through Oman to the coast and into the Arabian Sea
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Interestingly Matt Whittaker, the NATO Ambassador, was on Fox a few minutes ago talking about how China may become part of the "free flow" Multi-National enforcement group. I cannot understand why Saudi does not run a pipeline to the Red Sea and bypass it all. Earlier today Iranian drones struck Oman’s largest oil storage facilities at the Port of Salalah in Oman. |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12050668)
I'd keep a close eye on the small print if this does come to pass. Would the Chinese really undermine Iran's primary source of leverage in this conflict, without getting some major concessions for both parties?
Yup, because a 1200km long pipeline wouldn't be a tempting target. Weirdly, Salalah was on my long-list of holiday options for this year, having done - and very much enjoyed -Muscat a few years ago. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12050632)
How well can a counterterrorism unit protect the leader from air attacks? This little profile is on the special military units (seem to be in the elite class of military units) whose mission included personal security for the Leader/Ayatollah.
There are more than a few of them, if NCRI has good inside info. |
Originally Posted by larssnowpharter
(Post 12050659)
There are already a number of pipelines running across the Empty Quarter to Yanbu on the Red Sea. In my time they carried crude to refineries in the industrial area of the city.
Saudi's crude export pre war was circa 11m bpd. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12050636)
Over 42 million account holders…..
... 6/ So while hitting Bank Sepah disrupts the regime's ability to pay its foot soldiers, the IRGC's hands must be cut from across Iran's entire economy — their construction monopolies (Khatam al-Anbiya), their crypto operations ($3B+ in 2025), their smuggling networks, and their shadow banking. Sanctions must target the empire, not just the salary line. |
Originally Posted by Hangarless
(Post 12050631)
The whole crux of the issue. The Strait is of such importance to the entire world economy that someone had to destroy the Iranians ability hold the whole world to ransom by choosing who passes and who does not.
The same can be compared to protecting free movement through in both the Suez and Panama Canals. Using your rationale, does that mean that "someone" should also attack Egypt and Panama? |
Two tankers truck and burning in the Gulf tonight.
Video UPDATE: 2 oil tankers are on fire after being attacked in the Persian Gulf off Iraq, according to Reuters. It's unclear who carried out the attack. NEW: 1 of the ships on fire in the Persian Gulf is the U.S.-owned SafeSea Vishnu, according to Tanker Trackers. The other one is the Greek-owned Zefyros |
If the Israelis are deploying loitering drones over Tehran they either have established a ground base somewhere in Iran or one of the Gulf states. Otherwise they will will have no time on task.
Video BIG DEVELOPMENT! Loitering munition drones now appear to be operating over Tehran. More than 10 checkpoints and several moving IRGC military vehicles across various areas of Tehran have been targeted and destroyed in drone strikes. (@etelaf10) This type of weapon can loiter over an area, wait for targets to appear, and then strike, which becomes far easier once enemy air-defense systems are degraded or suppressed. This could help clear the path for a broader national uprising by weakening the regime’s street-level control. BREAKING: Video recorded in Tehran minutes ago shows the aftermath of a precise drone strike by the Israeli Air Force eliminating a convoy of the security forces of the Islamic regime of Iran on Chamran Highway. You can see fire trucks at the scene trying to put out the fire from the burned vehicles. |
‘UK bases will only be used for defensive missions”……
RAF Fairford Video England- USAF ground crew remove the cruise missile launchers from a B-1B Lancer, and replace them with a full load of 2,000 lb GBU-31 JDAM guided bombs. |
I guess there must come a point, like Germany in March/April 1945, when there just isn't anything left worth bombing
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Merchant Marine casualties in attacks on merchant ships near the Straight of Hormuz.
Whats going on with Shipping Report |
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