There are mentions of them being fishing boats. Other pics show similar numbers and wakes in the same area from last year.

One has to also think that such a large 'mine laying operation' would have gone undetected. But ya never know...

Blockade (boarding and detention of Iranian related sanctioned shipping) would seem to be going global.

WAPO: https://archive.is/20260422165708/ht...-hormuz-mines/

Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress

The Pentagon assessment, shared in a classified briefing for lawmakers, suggests gasoline and oil prices could remain elevated through the midterm elections.

Salute!

don't ya just luv how the usual susects (WAPO, NYTIMES, etc.) always get briefed on the classified briefings before the unclassified version hits the other media ?

Gums sends...
P.S. unless maskirovka

WGOWS in the Gulf.
 

Sal’s report for today on the latest shipping news in the Gulfs and Strait originates from Washington DC sans Hawaiian Shirt but avec shirt and tie.

More decimation of the US armed forces today - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce9ml02g5k7o

US Navy Secretary purged - no reason given

IIRC, a blockade of a nation is according to international law, an act of war…..

Ok.... and what we've seen the US/Israel do thus far, isn't?

Pentagon video:

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d6dfe94eda.png

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My small brain tells me that there is only one solution to the current impasse, largely arrived-at through mis-judgement of the Iranian capabilities and resolve, where that solution fulfils POTUS’ aims and that is through the use of overwhelming military action. Not a welcome move, granted, but probably the only way to draw a line through where we are at the moment. Such action, if it were to be entirely successful, would probably involve ‘boots on the ground’ to some degree or other. Whether the US would have to go it alone is debatable, but POTUS seems to think that they need no help from historical allies. I hope I’m wrong, but I see no resolution on the present path.

The problem with this - indeed any resumption of air strikes etc - is that Iran will simply target the Gulf states' oil infrastructure if there is any possibility the regime's survival is in question.

I believe this stalemate will continue for the foreseeable until the Gulf states force the issue with an agreement with Iran.

International law, like any law, is about as good as its enforcement. (By the way, any number of embargoes have been conducted under the auspices of the UNSCRs over the past few decades, but they are careful - semantically - to not refer to them as blockades).
Most historical allies are not interested in putting boots on the ground in Iran: after the mess in Iraq, why would they be interested? As to "no resolution" - same as it ever was.
Within the past few years, various gulf states have made efforts to reach regional stability accords with Iran. Let's say that the results have been mixed, and the decision to strike various Gulf States - "if I bleed, you bleed" - by Iran has probably done some harm to those initiatives.

Iran is probably counting on the Arabs being, in general, gutless and themselves more willing to 'gut it out' until the situation changes.
I don't think they'd be wrong to assess the state of play that way.

The obvious solution is for the US to accept that Trump has made a catastrophic mistake for reasons that are still as clear as mud, and force him to stop before more lives are wasted and more billions go up in smoke. The participation of the former allies of the US in a ground war in Iran is not debatable, it is completely off the table.

I have a strange feeling this will pan out along the lines of a certain SMO except, this time, a significant chunk of the world is indirectly, and without any say in the matter, impacted. Still, not too surprising that fact given the similarities between the "top neddies" in the Kremlin and the WH when it comes to "Strategic Thinking" ........ or whatever they call it.

I see there's another change at the top with NAVSEC going. Given how limited the USN input has been to date, rather than lack of effective action from the Navy, I suspect it's more that Phelan has probably been suggesting that a "catastrophic mistake" has been made.

I guess the thing that is making me ponder right now is what the Gulf States are making of all of this in private? After all, they are, literally, on the Front Line so are stuck - militarily and financially - with this for the foreseeable.

According to Naval Warfare Publication 1-14M, a naval quarantine is a maritime sanction physically enforced in peacetime and defined by its measured nature and intent to deescalate the situation and return it to the status-quo. A blockade is “a belligerent action designed to prevent vessels of all states from entering or departing specified areas without at least subjecting themselves to a search for contraband goods.”

Naval Warfare Publication 1-14M: Commander’s Handbook on the Law of Naval Operations(Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Navy, 2022), 4-10, 7-10.

Seems to be a moot point, the moment Israel started plinking the Ayatollah and his family, it was fair to assume that a state of war had arisen, whether declared, or otherwise. In the background, Iran has been skirting the edges of the protection of the NPT conventions since the first Trump administration tore up the agreement in a fit of pique in 2017/18. Whether Iran was compliant or not with the agreement that had been entered into depends on what news channel you may watch. Contrary to the comments from the WH, Iran had the same right to peaceful use of nuclear technology for medical, research and NPP use as every other signatory to the NPT.

A secondary blockade is a consequential act of war, but it follows the firing on internationally flagged commerce traffic by Iran, which itself follows the attack on Iran by Israel and the USA when the brain trust of those 2 countries decided that it was a great idea to go and start an excursion.

To put the concept of ground invasion of Iran into perspective, a quick read of the losses between Iran and Iraq in the 1980-88 war is interesting to have a look at. The impact on global economy as it is going will be substantial, and there is a modest risk that even remaining within the boundaries of the Persian Gulf, the consequences will come up towards Round 2.0's total costs and the indirect civilian losses from the potential impact of famine will start to make headline numbers. As this affects China directly, it is a push on the side of a balloon by a bunch of dunderheads of some historical significance. Within the gulf itself, the GCC may well become a victim of these circumstances, there is no love lost between the GCC and Iran, but there was a form of stability that functioned. Beyond that, the House of Saud has been in a state of crisis since pre Bin Laden times, and the numbers have not been looking good for their own stability for some time. Turns out gold plated toilet seats on hundreds of private jets doesn't increase the happiness of the punter in the street that happen to be the masses that are dispossessed from the cool dudes at the top that are dripping in trinkets. That Saudi can run a deficit is the 8th wonder of the world.

The irony of threatening the release of TNWs to stop another nation getting the very same seems to be lost in the moment.

Operationally, the US and Israel have fundamental weaknesses in their position in an air war, their regional bases are well within the striking capacity of Iran, which seems to have a fair capacity to attack remaining. That puts an inordinate load onto the AAR capabilities which are a mixed bag today, if the air assets are to be kept outside of ground striking distance. The Iranians have been getting good intel on USAF asset positions on the ramps, enough to be a major pain, and the skill and diplomacy of the WH has led to a position that finding a state other than Israel which is pretty well bracketed as far as aviation support goes, is starting to look lean on the ground. Apparently, being bellicose at allies while being obsequious with states undertaking war crimes is not without ramifications.

The off ramps do exist, but they seem to be jet blast bound notwithstanding the fact they are central to the use of air power to deal with the consequences of stupidity. The guys and girls that get hurt here are certainly any on the ground on either side, those that may be tasked by their CIC to go and make a fashion statement, in boots, boats or BUFFS, those Iranians that are the 90% of the population that are not impressed with their leaders but are not empowered to do anything about it, and the 3-4 billion others that have an existential threat to their food supply, which happens to include India and China along with various other nations. As to cost, ultimately the dismantling of 80 years of Bretton Woods functioning to some extent will end up costing more than that Great Depression and Round 2.0 combined, and not without some flow-on effects. Destabilising the polar world order has been on the wish list of certain parts of those in power for a long time, it didn't seem to be a good idea when first floated, and it isn't shaping up so well now either, but who knows; out of chaos comes opportunities, sometimes; if you survive.

Interesting tidbit of info, China is the only nuclear armed nation on the planet that has a stipulated, under no circumstances, no first release policy; they seem astute with their 5 year plans rather than 5 second internally inconsistent tweets.

What level of oversight in overseas missions do you think the Secretary of the Navy has?

Referring back to my #5501, again, I hope I’m wrong with my analysis of the way ahead. With all of the combined military experience (in so many aspects of the military) of the combined PPruners, what do you see as the way ahead? I would agree that the denial of a potential, viable, nuclear weapon probably has primacy. The freeing of the Strait of Hormuz from an Iranian stranglehold has to be an immediate objective. Can this be achieved through negotiations? If those negotiations are apparently successful, how would guarantees of continuing compliance be achieved?

Salute!
"So what's your solution?"
Well, the rest of the world has used economic and outright force off and on a few times to enforce the "international" agreements and such that so many here favor to slow down the acqusition of both the weapon and a good means of delivery. The rocket means is now there to reach out over most of Europe, and intercontinental missiles are not even a big step away. So we are all at their mercy with the bomb to back up their will. If they can wreck this much to the economies of so many who still rely on petroleum, and not just for transportation or power, then maybe we should do our best to keep them from acquiring the unltimate vengeance weapon.

For now, reducing humans' dependence upon oil, gas, coal, windmills and landscapes of solar panels to produce electricity is part of the solution to their closing the strait threats. So the irrational fear concerning nuclear power plants needs to be overcome and realize the fusion solution will be decades away ( as it has been for decades, heh heh). If we don't need the strait so much, that's a start. Just one big thing as a start, but beats learning how to duck and cover.

Gums muses...

Hopefully, with working heads and full larders. :}

The NPT is the bit of paper that gives some credence to that position, and it got torn up by a vandal, when there was some measure of inspections and observing of Irans activities. Ooops.
Having removed that unilaterally, I am at a loss to understand what was expected to be the subsequent game that would play out. What was the justification for Iran remaining compliant with an agreement that had been trashed by one of the major players in its formation?

The US maintains a policy of not threatening TNWs against a signatory of the NPT that does not have TNW's. At this very time, seems that is the case, otherwise we would probably have night glow marshmallows on tik-tok. Threatening the use of TNWs is somewhere in the old wording a war crime, and yet, today, it is a yawn, just another tweet before the next one and after the one before, all combining into a level of incoherent international and defence (war) policy that seems to get curiouser and curiouser the closer we get to the rabbit hole.

To de-escalate the situation, the fundamental, "intractable" problem that arises from Israels last century and this one, needs to be put back into a semblance of order. To consider that all Iranians hate Israel or the USA is inconsistent with the evidence; Israel makes it relatively easy for any militant group to establish a cause with their state in the center of the bulls eye. We collectively are distressed by an attack on an Israeli citizen by a terrorist, yet the killing of infants and children in the response is apparently of a lesser level of evil, so a determination is made as the the value of one child vs another, which seems to be arbitrary in nature. Plinking a school full of young girls doesn't even rate an "ooops, my bad..." occurring in an undeclared war which makes that potentially a mass homicide, if the declaration of war has any meaning today.

In a world that has decided that only might has right, and is prepared to threaten TNW release more readily than it picks it's collective noses, I am not sure I can see a legal or ethical argument, in fact it seems that the whole get yourself defended against aggressor nations which have TNWs would seem to be in order. This is not the world I wish to be part of, it is where we are heading in this strange period.


The UK and Russia, and the USA didn't help the problem much. As far as Iran is concerned, Shah Reza in 1941 while being a neutral country favoured Hitler, which ended up with the UK and Russia invading in 1941, (there be some oil there) and forcing the abdication of the old guy, in favour of his son, Mohammad. Reza Shah Pahlavi. The change of the government back in 1953, was a combined MI6/CIA exercise, (operation Ajax) so the US does not get a free pass on that. Mo Mossadegh would have been better not trying to mess with the City by trying to nationalise the Anglo Iranian Oil Co.... (now, BP, previously the APOC up to 1935). The Shah's white revolution and poor economy and some liberal insults ended up being a poor career move. Iran has had a few revolutions along the way, and frequently they have had broad support. Radicalism doesn't diminish by making additional martyrs, not unless you have a lot of ammo.

They would, wouldn't they?
And their toll booth wold be rightly referred to as extortion.

Mining.

MRAF Harris, in BOMBER COMMAND states that in WWII one vessel was sunk for every 50 mines deployed. If true this is an astonishingly effective and economical of depoyment of power, in his case air power.

Only? India appears to also have an NFU (No First Use) policy.

I think he means paying people to die so the US Forces don't have to. Maybe Wagner Group would be interested.

With all this mine laying (not sweeping LW!), one assumes that if any had been found/detected it would be all over the news...?

No video's, no photo's, no DJT social truth showing us these millions of floating or any detection system showing submerged mines?

One would assume that underwater drones nowadays would be used to find chunky metal orbs chained to the bottom of the sea - pending the sea depth and the amount of chain length needed, all carefully laid under the watch of a hundred hi res sats and who knows how many surveillance aircraft...

Iran has already offered to open the Straits if the US lifts its naval blockade. Any further military action would presumably lead to its closure once again.

As for military options to force the Straits open, well good luck with that. It couldn’t realistically be achieved without boots on the ground in some numbers. Even then I doubt safe passage could be guaranteed given the Iranians could always fire ballistic missiles or launch drones from their hinterland.

In essence, the US has gotten itself into what their military call a giant clusterf*ck.

https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html

Guide To Iran's Naval Mines

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....25e5303d3.jpeg
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I saw a video on youtube suggesting that the United Staes had taken out an Iranian submarine/patrol boat hidden cave system in the gulf, is there any truth to this or is it just more fake news?

I would be surprised if Iran was not using fishing vessels (or craft disguised as fishing vessels) to lay mines in the strait. Very easy to disguise mine laying within typical fishing vessel tracks. Makes it much harder for the US to target them with confidence and complicates mine-sweeping based on surveillance.

:ok: I removed my inquiry, I suspected that is what you meant.
As some of my sailors used to say: We need a fresh goat, this one's fcuked out.
Yep. We ran a wargame for the Korean Peninsula (about 30 years ago) and that's one of the things that the 'white cell' (game masters) put on the table for Orange forces to have in their kit bag...

DOW Briefing 24 Apr 26

Ceasefire or basically screwed.. the US appear to be running low on weapons.

Has there been any discussion about whether the Abraham Lincoln group is being replaced by Bush, or will it remain in the area?

That's a good question.
It is not uncommon for a carrier relieving another one to spend a week or two operating with them before the one being relieved heads home.
CENTCOM will probably make an utterance about that within the next week.
Note: Lincoln's current deployment began 21 Nov 2025. (From San Diego, CA).
It will hit the 'six month' standard next month, but as I noted previously, that "six months" is not written in stone.
They may get extended.

For NutLoose:
When this began, Secretary Hegseth made some remarks about 'four to five weeks' and I made a guess a few days afterwards that this matched roughly where the ammo expenditure would start to show. With the on and off cease fires stuff for the past couple of weeks, I guess I slightly undersold the operational stamina but I'll put a notional ten-dollar bet down in Vegas that you hit the mark with this:

The drug runners in the Caribbean ,who the media like to refer to as "poor fisherman" have found out that disguising themselves by using a fishing boats does not end well for them.

Hangarless, I don't think that the US has a DEA + local government surveillance screen in Iran that is similar to what is in Venezuela and Colombia.
You are not making a valid comparison.

But I would not put it past Pete H to try that in the Persian Gulf. :p

Maritime logistics for US Naval Forces.
Sal’s latest take on the matter.

He said this morning, I do believe ,that the small fast boats in the Strait will be getting the same treatment that is given in the Caribbean.

Who really knows what surveillance ability and intelligence gathering is available to the US but my bet is that it is quite substantial.