Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...?

Emirates, Qatar and Turkish airlines have cancelled all flights into Teheran.

Countries which presumably have a close touch in what the situation is in the ground.

My wife is Iranian and was back in the country until last week so she was able to leave before flights started to get cancelled. She didn't see anything different about these protests than other which have happened before, except that the Bazar owners seem to be taking a more central role. They have never protested before so the loss of their support wil hurt the Government more than most things the protesters can do, however that also means that the Government might be able to appease them with some targetted measures and separate them from from the rank and file on the streets.

Glad to get a 'closer to the front' perspective. :ok:
But the prospects are rather grim, at the moment:
I've read in a few sources that most of the opposition does NOT want Pahlavi back, seeing him as an opportunist and as much a part of the problem as any sort of solution.
Foreign interference, particularly of a military sort, will (I suspect) hurt the anti regime movement more than help it.

What "military" option would gain the most support from outside Iran, give max boost to the people in the streets protesting, and cause the most harm to the Regime without hurting the People?

My thought would to be 1) go after the cash cow of the regime...which is probably its sales of Oil and Gas. 2) Decapitate the leadership that is responsible for internal security. 3) install yet more economic sanctions on senior members of the Regime and seek out and seize any external holdings they have. Whatever done should not harm the people on the streets but do massive harm to the select few that are benefitting from their ill-gotten Gains.

SASless, a decapitation strike takes quite a bit of inside assistance. I don't think that the juice is worth the squeeze.

Solemani turned out well.

That's not a decapitation strike run inside of Iran, that was a very well planned and orchestrated assassination of a high value target outside of his home country. (And I personally appaluded the decision to take him out given his body of work, despite the Iraqi government making a lot of public complaints about it happening in their airspace).

Removed, noise
T28B

Do you have any insider information as to what this "help" is?
As we are in the Military Aviation forum, I'll take the hard to refute position that any help will involve air assets, and probably space based assets.
Which may not be the kind of help that the people in Iran are looking for.
I seriously doubt that. (The bolded part).
Of course they did. That's information age warfare 101. The EM spectrum is a part of the battlefield. And thus made themselves a target of the regime's counter measures.

From what I understand (which is a very limited amount of information) SkyLink is jammed but Thuraya is not because that's what most of the regime use themselves. Thuraya is basically a 2G technology, phone and text, but that all the protestors need to co-ordinate their activities.

Saudis have just made clear that no bases there can be used; nor will there be overflight through their airspace. Was in the car, not sure if any other gulf states have said the same.

CG

We have restored this thread to the Military Aviation forum where it began, but I will remind you all that it is focused on the military activity.
Recent political unrest is covered here, in Jet Blast.
https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/669...overnment.html

Here we go again
 

We’re seeing the same pattern of events as we did in June 2025.

US and UK pulling some personnel from Qatar military base https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c701xywwxw8o

I’d suggest it might be a little less performative and a bit more damaging this time around. Let’s just hope though that the number of incoming rockets do not outnumber the amount of patriots in and around Al Udeid. And let’s hope that the targets are all within the base.

BV

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bd1b53a0e2.png
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Some local experts ( ww have experience with bombing ) claim that decesion has been put forward to wing commanders so question of attack is just question of weather conditions.
So, what is the weather in the Gulf and over Teheran/ Iran?

Trump just announcing from the Oval Office, with some caution, that the Iranians have agreed to stop firing on protestors and will not execute the protestors..

I pray that it is true.

Iran just closed its Airspace...another traffic "hole" such as Ukraine and Venezuela...
Right now only two Mahan 340 flying...

New NOTAM

Thank you for that update, as unhappy as it is.

Putin depends on weapons deliveries from Iran.
Would he encourage its leaders to abandon the place, when whoever takes over might not be so supportive ?

Not to Moscow, much to cold and unwelcoming as well as a different culture. By all accounts large amounts of cash and gold have been transferred to banks in Dubai and aircraft are on standby, just in case they are required.