Following up ORAC's post.....

When Dictatorhips fall it does not take long sometimes as the leadership falls prey to its own propaganda.

When despots are seen as weak and vulnerable their own security apparatus sometimes sees opportunities for self advancement to the front office.,

Consider all of the setbacks the current Iranian Regime has suffered in the past couple of years, its lack of real and loyal allies, and now its stepping up of oppressive actions against its own people.

History is not on their side at all.

Was the Ayatollah hiding from the IDF or his own side?

https://www.nzz.ch/english/for-many-...ise-ld.1865074

Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, CNN reports

"WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - An early U.S. intelligence assessment indicated that the U.S. military strikes on three of Iran's nuclear facilities last week did not destroy the core components of Tehran's nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people briefed on it. "This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong," CNN quoted White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying.!"

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...es-2025-06-24/

Yes, I know it's CNN, and I know there is still to be an official release, but there is considerable difference between "totally obliterated" and "set it back by a few months".

Further to the above, the WH Press Sec has issued a rebuttal that basically confirms the report is real.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5b75e4fe05.jpg

Yes, "fighter pilots", I know ...

From a news story in AP, discussing the death of 14 Iranian nuclear experts/scientists during the attacks by Israel, and subsequent air strikes by the US. Right. Set back for ... a while.

Mal Drop, I have an idea of what may be behind that message from that mouthpiece: the intent is to offer the impression that the political leadership has no effing idea of what they are doing. It's part of the Deception Plan. :8
(Or is it? :confused: )

Was anyone setting book on when Bibi is going to trot over to the U.S. and start beating the drums for round two?

I hope I am not misplaced with this concession, but I might have to hand it to Trump in that he doesn't seem to be in the mood to brook lip from either side.

Whether he was right or wrong ordering U.S. involvement I will wait and see, but I feel that he is now in the position to at least try to crack heads together and tell the parties that enough is enough. Rather like my parents would do when I was scrapping with my siblings. They would get to the point where they would say they did not care who started it, but it was going to end NOW... and upon that warning it usually did.

Interesting point was made by someone today that the idea of nukes has been altered a bit in recent years. If you are going to use them as a true existential deterrent, then you have to have enough to completely destroy the opponent.

North Korea could take out, for example, Seattle but then the Hermit Kingdom would dissappear 20 minutes later. It would need to take out a lot more to play the MAD game.

If a country is going to be operating below that threshold of MAD however, then a stockpile of precision weapons are much more cost and planning effective. Things that can take out specific targets and capabilities. One would think Iran would have gone down that route unless they were/are actually planning to develop and field a dozen or more weapons and delivery vehicles.

Of course in the ME it is not a matter of tomorrow, next week, or even next year, but maybe in the next decade.

................the assessment was wrong ............. but ............. classified as top secret.

Two countries divided by a common language.

I've always considered that anyone occupying a cockpit, irrespective of aircraft type, and engaged in combat, can quite rightly call themselves a "fighter pilot". Combat is all about fighting after all, I get the point you're making though.

Found Trump's truth social posts yesterday hilarious - ordering Israel and Iran to stop violating the ceasefire.
As if either of them are going to listen to him...

So the Intelligence community needs to make sure their assessments don’t upset the thin skinned administration now?

Well, it seems they did!

demean1
/dɪˈmiːn/

verb

1. cause a severe loss in the dignity of and respect for (someone or something).

"Totally obliterated" was it? How does such wild and whimsical hyperbole before any intel or assessment has been carried out display dignity or deserve anything but incredulity, least of all respect?
'Flat out wrong" hardly increases the respect or dignity of a mere press secretary or her puppetmasters when slapping down one of their own primary governmental intel outfits. She has this superior and contradictory better intel from - where exactly? Doesn't reflect well on the analysts who came up with this hardly iunexpected or unsurprising finding does it? Now that is demeaning.
"low level loser". - that's just a junior school playground level insult. Hardly a dignified way for a primary governmental spokesperson to characterise a whistleblower
"brave fighter pilots". Leaving the glaring technical inaccuracy aside (well, she is press...) how could this reflect in any way on the service personnel who were doing their job to their usual high standard? For sure it probably was perfectly executed, but the aircrew are the last people to blame for the fact that no one, least of all the Air Force, the ordnance people, the planners or the Generals have any idea whatsoever what actually happens when you drop a bomb that can allegedly penetrate just 60m of soft concrete and far far less of properly hardened stuff onto solid rock maybe 3-500m thick. No lady, "everyone" most assuredly does NOT "know". In fact no-one has much (if any) idea at all. Complete hollywood/video game inspired flummel.

This entire undignified, inaccurate and frankly mendacious statement merely further demeans the current POTUS and his staff, as if they need any help on that score.
I'd bet my last shilling that the military brass were holding their heads in their hands when they heard that "totally obliterated" nonsense - while the rest of us less directly involved probably just guffawed in disbelief at the delusion.

It'll take a darn sight more than a handful of tons of HE to obliterate an entire mountain. Surely everyone (except POTUS) knows that?

I am guessing that this lot heading back to Qatar yesterday had a significantly greater effect than the missiles.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....568347576d.jpg

I'll see if our correspondent in Doha has an "Ops Normal" report.

The 'obliterationists' seem increasingly shrill as the hours pass. There's an admirably cool and balanced overview at The Times of Israel:
...and much more.

If the voices of caution are vindicated, I expect that Israel will have to cope as best it can without further US strikes on Iran. President Trump has very limited patience for complex issues which demand sustained effort from him. He also hates to be perceived as a failure in any way. He will, I think, drop this crisis and move on to something else. I hope that Israel will continue to benefit from US intelligence data on Iran.

Perhaps the last bunker buster dropped in each pit was set to a specific type of fuze...

Regarding confidence in the CNN reporting:

As neither Mod nor Admin:
If the point is that they can "restart it" in a few months, they still have to get things up and going.
Maybe they have to play "catch up" or cover some old ground again to "get back to where we were."
How long does that take?
Do they even know yet, themselves?
Will some helpful people from North Korea, Russia or Pakistan offer to help them get back on step?

Personally a bit skeptical of this "...we don't know where the HEU has gone..." line.
For a long time now US IMINT platforms (both UAVs and things that fly or orbit at higher altitudes) have had the ability to `stare' at large areas of the earth for long periods and record what they see in exquisite detail.
If something happens at a particular point, you can then re-wind the view, zoom in on parts of the picture, tag items of interest and then follow them back on the timeline.
Want to see where the truck carrying the bomb came from? Tag it, and follow it all the way back to the terrorist hideout.
Have never seen it (for obvious reasons) but have seen reports from those who have who say it is quite extraordinary.
As an area of great interest, particularly in the last few months, I would imagine there would have been a RQ-180 or some other HALO platform that we might not yet know about over Fordow for a long time, recording stuff almost continuously, and occasionally supplemented by U2s looking in from Iraq when needed and/or IMINT or SAR birds as they transit overhead.
I would have assumed that anything leaving Fordow recently would have been recorded by our friends in Chantilly VA - including where it went. I find it hard to believe it wouldn't have been.
But I may also have been reading too many Tom Clancy novels...

The HEU can be carried in canisters which will fit in the back of any military vehicle. There will literally be hundreds of such arriving and departing from the sites daily loading and unloading out of sight.

Once a vehicle has left a site it can stop in any tunnel or any loading bay or garage and the contents moved to any other vehicle and moved elsewhere. A tactics which can be performed multiple times.

The idea that the presence of the HEU could be confirmed, let alone tracked, by satellite or drone surveillance is something reserved for Mission Impossible movies.

The only one’s I’d suspect have any idea of it’s location, based on HUMINT, not ELINT which I suspect the Iranians will be paranoid about in such circumstances, will the Israelis with people on the ground who have infiltrated the programme over the years.

HEU possibly under the scenarios you outline, but tracking of hundreds of targets by IMINT or ELINT is indeed feasible.
These systems deployed at altitude can visually monitor an entire city, and effectively re-wind what they see.
Google the term Wide Area Persistent Surveillance.
Effectively they are military digital video surveillance recorders paired with highly sophisticated multi-lens camera systems, and software which can stitch the imagery together enabling analysts to zoom in on parts of the image - highlight an object or person of interest and then backtrack a path.