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Abbas Ibn Firnas 9th March 2026 18:13


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12049375)
Seeing as there are now AD ships from the French, Dutch, Germans, Italians and Spanish around Cyprus; plus in addition to the RAF F-35Bs and Typhoons at Akrotiri there are now the Greek F-16s at Paphos and Turkish F-16s at Ercan plus the CdG about to arrive with wing of Rafale-Ms, sending HMS Duncan does seem a somewhat pointless political gesture.

Can you imagine the backlash if further attacks were successful, and we hadn't sent it. It could still prove to be a valuable asset against Iranian retaliation. If it is as capable as has been stated, that's where it should be, not docked in Portsmouth.

NorthSouth 9th March 2026 18:25


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12049375)
sending HMS Duncan does seem a somewhat pointless political gesture.

in that case we will have achieved strategic coherence. Unfortunately we don’t yet know what the “point” is
NS

NutLoose 9th March 2026 19:15

Apparently an encrypted signal has been detected being sent from Iran that may be to awaken sleeper cells across the world

langleybaston 9th March 2026 19:23


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 12049430)
Apparently an encrypted signal has been detected being sent from Iran that may be to awaken sleeper cells across the world

If so we must protect infrastructure from asymetric warfare options: dirty bombs, water supply, increased cybercrime, rail travel.

Plus, of course, RAF stations which, we are assured, have beefed up protection. But seemingly only from surface threats.

AnglianAV8R 9th March 2026 19:27


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12049375)
does seem a somewhat pointless political gesture.

To a politician, no gesture is pointless.

langleybaston 9th March 2026 19:36


Originally Posted by AnglianAV8R (Post 12049436)
To a politician, no gesture is pointless.

I have a gesture for Trump, widely displayed at Agincourt.

SWBKCB 9th March 2026 19:45

Breaking news on the BBC...


Trump says Iran war 'very complete, pretty much' and ahead of schedulepublished at 19:41


19:41BreakingDonald Trump has suggested the war against Iran could be over soon, telling the BBC’s US media partner CBS News: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much."

He says the US is “very far ahead of schedule", adding Iran has “no navy, no communications, they've got no air force,” and claims their missiles are “down to a scatter”.

When asked if he thinks the war could be over soon, Trump responds: “Wrapping up is all in my mind.”

The White House has previously indicated the war, which is on its tenth day, could last for more than a month.

fdr 9th March 2026 20:31

"very complete, pretty much"

Where does "Unconditional Surrender" reside in that sentence?

Continue to be confused if this is a war, a police action, the start of Armageddon, or just a day ending in "Y". At least the US HoR and Senate have a say in matters...

No? Really?

The most concerning comment: “Wrapping up is all in my mind.” Where would one begin with that pearl. SNL just got an endowment of riches to work with...

Oh well, back to popcorn and marshmallows.


DogTailRed2 9th March 2026 20:32


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12049375)
Seeing as there are now AD ships from the French, Dutch, Germans, Italians and Spanish around Cyprus; plus in addition to the RAF F-35Bs and Typhoons at Akrotiri there are now the Greek F-16s at Paphos and Turkish F-16s at Ercan plus the CdG about to arrive with wing of Rafale-Ms, sending HMS Duncan does seem a somewhat pointless political gesture.

Is that what they call a target rich environment?

Lonewolf_50 9th March 2026 20:41


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 12049467)
"very complete, pretty much"
Where does "Unconditional Surrender" reside in that sentence?

Continue to be confused if this is a war, a police action, the start of Armageddon, or just a day ending in "Y". At least the US HoR and Senate have a say in matters...
The most concerning comment: “Wrapping up is all in my mind.” Where would one begin with that pearl. SNL just got an endowment of riches to work with...

fdr, it's all part of the deception plan! :} Keep the enemy guessing!

As to bracing ourselves for fifth column activity: that's been a standard posture since WTC 1993 and McVeigh's little stunt in Oklahoma City. One would hope that with this war starting, measures will be increased due to increased threat level.

fdr 9th March 2026 20:52


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 12049430)
Apparently an encrypted signal has been detected being sent from Iran that may be to awaken sleeper cells across the world

Glad this action made the world a safer place.... ah, hold on, what do you mean that there is a thing called a$$-y-metric warfare (asymmetric for those consonantly challenged). No problem, we have DHS on top of it all, wait, their budget went to the puppy slayers department of ICE to facilitate the removal of illegals, and some not so illegal visitors and citizens of the USA? So, who is minding the shop?

I am planning to avoid major urban centres for some time, including any that have containers, explosives, hazmat, and the general run of the mill NBC detritus hanging about to make a fashion statement about irritation with having the chief bottle washer, his side kick, and their entourage turned to sidewalk stains. The thing with nuclear weapons is, they are so... blunt. The response to the employment of a ICBM against the USA would not be a surprise to anyone who has Netflix. "house of dynamite" is interesting if only for Idris Elba not playing a cop or a psycho. Dirty weapons mess up options, and that is the sort of thing that comes out of asssssymetric warfare.

Ask what the Ukrainians would do, and go and prep the defences...


Recc 9th March 2026 20:56


Originally Posted by SWBKCB (Post 12049441)
Donald Trump has suggested the war against Iran could be over soon

Hopefully Trump has been reminded that in order for the war to end, both sides have to agree to stop fighting... Iran could probably sustain a low-intensity anti-shipping/ oil infrastructure operation for months (or years). I don't know if that would be a sensible strategy for them, but rational decisions might not be assured given the circumstances in which the new supreme leader got the job.

Abbas Ibn Firnas 9th March 2026 21:00

Regarding the suspected US strike on the Iranian school.
It does now look increasingly likely that it was an American Tomahawk that was responsible, according to a video released by the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

If this is the case, whilst it being a tragic incident, l do have some sympathy with the US due to how the school was located.
It would be revealing to know why they'd place a school almost within the perimeter of an IRGC base. Also, was it a purposely built facility, or a re-purposed building, and why it just happened to be a girls only school. Cynical perhaps, but their recent behaviour does make you wonder.

Edit:

Is the school separate to the IRGC base?

The school building is located near the IRGC base.

Satellite imagery from 2013 appears to show the school building was part of the same compound, before a wall is seen in 2016 separating it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o

tdracer 9th March 2026 21:13


Originally Posted by Abbas Ibn Firnas (Post 12049484)
Regarding the suspected US strike on the Iranian school.
It does now look increasingly likely that it was an American Tomahawk that was responsible, according to a video released by the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

If this is the case, whilst it being a tragic incident, l do have some sympathy with the US due to how the school was located.
It would be revealing to know why they'd place a school almost within the perimeter of an IRGC base. Also, was it a purposely built facility, or a re-purposed building, and why it just happened to be a girls only school. Cynical perhaps, but their recent behaviour does make you wonder.

Not that simple - the video shows a Tomahawk hitting the IRGC base - and other videos clearly show that the school had been hit before the Tomahawk strike.
So the only evidence that it was a Tomahawk that hit the school is that other Tomahawks hit the nearby IRGC base.
Yes, it is plausible that one of those Tomahawk missiles missed its target and thit the school. But it is also still plausible that it was struck by a malfunction Iranian missile. The linked BBC report adds nothing new to the debate.

Abbas Ibn Firnas 9th March 2026 21:28


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 12049494)
Not that simple - the video shows a Tomahawk hitting the IRGC base - and other videos clearly show that the school had been hit before the Tomahawk strike.
So the only evidence that it was a Tomahawk that hit the school is that other Tomahawks hit the nearby IRGC base.
Yes, it is plausible that one of those Tomahawk missiles missed its target and thit the school. But it is also still plausible that it was struck by a malfunction Iranian missile. The linked BBC report adds nothing new to the debate.

Whatever the cause, I'm questioning why was the school located as it was?

Semreh 9th March 2026 21:30


Originally Posted by Abbas Ibn Firnas (Post 12049484)
Regarding the suspected US strike on the Iranian school.
It does now look increasingly likely that it was an American Tomahawk that was responsible, according to a video released by the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

If this is the case, whilst it being a tragic incident, l do have some sympathy with the US due to how the school was located.
It would be revealing to know why they'd place a school almost within the perimeter of an IRGC base. Also, was it a purposely built facility, or a re-purposed building, and why it just happened to be a girls only school. Cynical perhaps, but their recent behaviour does make you wonder.

This Al Jazeera article answers many of your questions. Whether it corresponds with the truth is something, I'm afraid, I cannot vouch for, so I'd suggest cross-referencing with other sources.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/...ny-involvement.

The article claims:

1) The school buildings were originally within the base security perimeter, but subsequently partitioned off, with the security perimeter rebuilt to explicitly to exclude the school. Evidence via satellite images.
2) I believe the school was purpose built within the base, then subsequently partitioned out.
3) It is not unusual for Islamic societies to educate girls and boys separately; especially when the girls near or pass the determined border of womanhood.

Similarly, later (after the girl's school) a public medical facility was built on ground originally within the base's security perimeter for civilian use. It was not directly hit by ordnance.

This could all be disinformation/propaganda (especially some of the other claims in the article), but I expect that if nothing else, the satellite images can be verified.

Icarus 1 9th March 2026 21:38

AIF
I understand the scepticism, as it has been used for years with Hospitals and indeed hospital ships and temples etc. It doesn’t make it right, and indeed many parties both good and bad depending on your view have done it. War makes a stranger out of many people, and their beliefs of right and wrong.

Cheers
Mr Mac

Ninthace 9th March 2026 21:44


Originally Posted by Abbas Ibn Firnas (Post 12049484)
Regarding the suspected US strike on the Iranian school.
It does now look increasingly likely that it was an American Tomahawk that was responsible, according to a video released by the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg548lyjnyo

If this is the case, whilst it being a tragic incident, l do have some sympathy with the US due to how the school was located.
It would be revealing to know why they'd place a school almost within the perimeter of an IRGC base. Also, was it a purposely built facility, or a re-purposed building, and why it just happened to be a girls only school. Cynical perhaps, but their recent behaviour does make you wonder.

Edit:

Is the school separate to the IRGC base?

The school building is located near the IRGC base.

Satellite imagery from 2013 appears to show the school building was part of the same compound, before a wall is seen in 2016 separating it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o

I would point out that RAF bases in Germany had schools inside the wire, Bruggen had 3 of them. HQ Air Command has a school virtually across the road. Do you see something sinister there too?

langleybaston 9th March 2026 22:09


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12049476)
fdr, it's all part of the deception plan! :} Keep the enemy guessing!

As to bracing ourselves for fifth column activity: that's been a standard posture since WTC 1993 and McVeigh's little stunt in Oklahoma City. One would hope that with this war starting, measures will be increased due to increased threat level.

That worked well at RAF Brize Norton, did it not?

EDLB 9th March 2026 22:29

Seems that the US can not stand a closure of the street of Hormus longer than a week. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/09/b...t-navy-economy
You wonder why they started the war because this situation now had 20/20 hindsight and a save passage will require boots on the ground on the Iranian side. Any single drone, rocket or mine sneaking past the defense will create havoc with a full oil or CNG tanker.


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