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Not so sure if it is of a military nature but maybe the growing unrest will bring about some change for the better now that the Mullahs are in such a weak position..
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Iran ranks either third or fourth on known Oil/Gas reserves.
89% of its exports goes to China. The Iranian oil industry is experiencing a marked decline in its ability to produce due to outdated technologies and other issues. China at some point shall see their current supplier as being unable to provide the necessary amount of product and they shall be confronted with locating a reliable source for their energy needs. Whether the Chinese decide to do "business" with the United States and find some sort of bargain where Iran gets a new government and China keeps their primary supplier and Western governments inject needed improvements in the Iranian Oil Industry cannot be ignored. The Chinese are known for being "businessmen" who also understand the art of the deal that benefit of agreements that avoid confrontation and War. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/bre...ts-by-country/ Saudi Arabia on the other hand only exports about 5% of its oil to China. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...ct/27-27_Fuels When Iran threatens to block the Straits of Hormuz.....they might not really be able to do that unless they can continue their shipments to their largest customer....China. Seems poor judgement by both Iran and China in reality. |
Recalling Trump’s comments about what he will do if demonstrators are killed - coincidence or not. Any exercises taking place?
Something unusual appears to be going on today at RAF Fairford near Gloucestershire in the United Kingdom, with at least 10 C-17A Globemaster IIIs with the U.S. Air Force arriving at the base or currently crossing the Atlantic from the United States. Almost all of the C-17s appear to be out of either Hunter Army Airfield in Savannah, Georgia, the home of the 1st Battalion, 75th Ranger Regiment and the 3rd Battalion, 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR); or Campbell Army Airfield in Kentucky, which houses the 101st Airborne Division and the 1st/2nd Battalions of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR). Several heavy C-17A Globemaster III strategic airlifters and KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft have conducted transatlantic flights from the United States to various air bases across Europe. A noteworthy detail is that one of the C-17A aircraft departed from Fort Campbell, located in the state of Kentucky, where the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR) — the “Night Stalkers” — is based. This unit was established directly after the failed U.S. rescue operation in Iran in 1980, specializes in Delta Force missions, and most likely participated in the operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. At least two C-17A aircraft have already landed in Germany at Ramstein Air Base, with several others arriving in the United Kingdom. The last time logistics flights of such scale were observed was during last year’s strikes on Iran. This time, in addition to the scope of the movement, particular attention is drawn to the fact that flights originated from the base of the Special Operations Aviation Regiment — raising the question: is the time of Ali Khamenei approaching? 🚨It is 7:00 a.m. in Tehran on January 4. Below is my second update, outlining 15 key developments from last night’s protests in Iran. 1⃣ Day seven marked the largest day of protests so far, both in terms of geographic spread and the number of participants. 2⃣Demonstrations were reported in at least 60 cities and towns, with some estimates placing the number as high as 90 locations nationwide. 3⃣Today was also the bloodiest day of the protests. 4⃣ While repression had already intensified over the past two days, the escalation became unmistakable after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s speech, in which he declared that “rioters must be put in their place.” 5⃣ Following those remarks, live fire and security crackdowns clearly increased. Available reports indicate that between 10 and 17 people were killed today. 6⃣ Instagram, Iran’s most widely used social media platform, is now flooded with images of slain young men and women, alongside waves of condolence messages from friends, relatives, and ordinary users. 7⃣ Women’s participation in the protests is noticeably higher than in the early days. 8⃣ A significant portion of the protesters are from Generation Z, including high school students. 9⃣On day seven, retaliatory actions by protesters became more prominent: attacks on security forces, overturning repression vehicles, stone-throwing, burning banners of Khamenei, and destroying statues and symbols associated with Qassem Soleimani. 🔟Although diaspora media outlets publish confirmed arrest figures, when regime media reports, statements by local officials, field videos, and eyewitness accounts are taken together, the number of detainees is almost certainly well above 1,000—likely far higher. Many local incidents never make it into national or international reporting. 11. On social media—especially Instagram—a wave of creative, satirical, and openly critical videos has emerged, including content directly questioning why Mossad or Israel have not intervened. This reflects a growing sense of expectations of external action. 12. For the first time in Tehran, two video chants explicitly mentioned Donald Trump. 13. Developments surrounding Nicolas Maduro’s arrest gained traction online, with users explicitly drawing parallels and calling for a comparable response toward the Iranian regime. 14. At the same time, chants supporting Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi continue widely, and his leadership role appears increasingly consolidated among large segments of the protesters. 15. Following the appointment of Ali Javanmardi as Voice of America Persian’s senior supervisor last week—a figure known for his staunch opposition to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, a history of gender-based insults against Pahlavi’s wife, and journalistic conspiracy narratives that have led to his boycott by much of the Persian-language diaspora media—reports indicate that Javanmardi reportedly made it clear to VOA staff to censor protest slogans in favor of Pahlavi such as “Javid Shah” and “This is the final battle—Pahlavi will return.” This has triggered widespread public outrage against Voice of America, with many users expressing shock at the appointment and tagging Kari Lake and President Trump to demand their direct intervention. |
Given they've offloaded it seems unlikely this is anything to do with Iran
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I think a snatch & grab in Iran would be a lot harder than in Venzuela.
There are a lot more disafected sources in the later, Tehran is a lot further from the coast or any allied location and the Iranians are used to being bombed and so are better prepared. Plus removing Kamenei wouldn't solve anything - they have a lot of people looking at that job as it is - removing him would bring in someone younger, brighter and more active. |
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12014969)
I think a snatch & grab in Iran would be a lot harder than in Venzuela.
Activity rumoured to be related to the tanker being tracked from Venezuela. |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12014887)
Given they've offloaded it seems unlikely this is anything to do with Iran
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12014969)
Plus removing Kamenei wouldn't solve anything - they have a lot of people looking at that job as it is - removing him would bring in someone younger, brighter and more active.
I would expect that a scrum will take place, and more to the point, all that a body snatch would do is get that process (internal Iranian scrum) started early and as a collateral effect create a martyr. <= No point in doing that. The juice isn't worth the squeeze. |
create a martyr |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12015481)
Contrary to what many people believe, Iran is highly regarded in many parts of the ME and beyond, it being seen as the one country who landed some punches on Israel. I recall seeing footage of Syrians and Lebanese cheering their missiles as they passed overhead.
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Today, there has been some upheaval in the Grand Bazar of Tehran, which is not only the heart of the city (and very worth a visit, it will completely overwhelm any first-time visitor), but also located right next to multiple government and justice buildings.
For those wishing to just decapitate the present government - please consider the effects of similar strikes in the past. Removing Saddam Hussein in Iraq has led to a civil war and until now, 22 years later, the country has not come to rest. Removing the Taliban in Afghanistan after 2001 was not entirely crowned with success either, Mubarak in Cairo has given way to as-Sisi, Qaddhafi to chaos and struggling factions, Tunisia is slowly sliding towards the next autocracy, and how Syria will develop under its present government still remains to be seen. Do not expect a fully developed western style democracy to rise from the ashes, and do not expect a country to gladly adopt a system forced upon it. Building up a stable government against the countries traditions either takes massive violence or much time, patience and a gradually-decreasing, initially firm grip, as has been seen in Western Germany after WW2. There, the foundations of a democracy had been laid in the 1920s, so there was at least a little beginning of a tradition that could be built on. For Iran, a proud, ancient country that has had foreign countries meddle with it for quite a few decades over the last centuries, it may well be advisable to let them sort it out on their own with only discreet, low-key support from outside. |
Originally Posted by Tu.114
(Post 12015881)
For Iran, a proud, ancient country that has had foreign countries meddle with it for quite a few decades over the last centuries, it may well be advisable to let them sort it out on their own with only discreet, low-key support from outside.
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Tu.114, thank you for your informed post. Interesting to hear from someone on the ground.
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There are rumours that some security forces are starting to side with the people (report in German). Mr Khamenei appears to mind his safety and starts to look for real estate abroad in the well known refuge for deposed dictators managed by Mr Putin.
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Saw this in the news:
Iran’s armed forces have been placed at the highest level of readiness, with hundreds of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and regular army units on full alert in response to perceived threats from the United States and Israel, state media reported. The alert is part of a broader deterrence posture, with Iran warning that any hostile action would be met with a firm and proportionate response. Widespread anti-government protests triggered by a severe economic downturn and the sharp depreciation of the rial have swept the country for a second week. |
The war of words continues
The head of Iran's military threatened preemptive action over "rhetoric" targeting the country as the regime faces massive protests. Iran's Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami was likely responding to President Donald Trump's warning that America would acTrump recently made it clear that the U.S. would step in if it saw that Iran was mistreating or killing protesters. The president wrote on Truth Social, "If Iran shoots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go." Hatami, who was speaking to military academy students, said, "The Islamic Republic considers the intensification of such rhetoric against the Iranian nation as a threat and will not leave its continuation without a response," according to The Associated Press, which cited the state-run IRNA news agency. He added, "I can say with confidence that today the readiness of Iran’s armed forces is far greater than before the war. If the enemy commits an error, it will face a more decisive response, and we will cut off the hand of any aggressor." |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 12016507)
Saw this in the news: A few other news stories have cropped up suggesting that some folks in the security services are siding with protesters - Tu 114's is one such - but the messages are a bit inconsistent at the moment so I'll give it the old 48 hours 'wait and see' on that.
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Thanks, one wonders how many other cases like that are cropping up. The more that do the better it is for the protest movement.
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TV reports in UK are claiming there's now a full phone and internet blackout being applied by Iran Govt in an attempt to stem the comms between protesting groups as the protests gather pace.
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Last time there was a full internet blackout 4 years ago, the "authorities" killed over 1500 people I hope that does not happen again. Will be big trouble.
Suspect various aircraft are being filled up with "loot" ready for the "top lot" to flee north. |
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