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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...t-organisation
This won't amount to much of anything in the long run. |
Just read Andy McNab’s book Down To The Wire - interesting / worrying !
Has Iran now got the capability to launch a successful Cyber attack on the West ? disabling vital services - thus deterring an American strike? Has Cyber now taken over the MAD deterrent role from Nuclear and is it enough to prevent WW3 ? |
[QUOTE=mahogany bob;12029416]Just read Andy McNab’s book Down To The Wire - interesting / worrying !
Has Iran now got the capability to launch a successful Cyber attack on the West ? /QUOTE] - Very much so and already has. AI: Yes, Iran has the technical capability to launch successful cyberattacks on Western infrastructure, and it is currently ranked as a "second-tier" cyber threat—comparable to North Korea but behind Russia and China. |
Interesting LT. Think a nation under the gun might strike first using cyber technology knowing that if they wait until the bombs fall that their capabilities would be eliminated in the beginning minutes.
I’ve looked for the book on Amazon, only to find what looks to be a fictional account about a kidnapping. |
Surely if Iran has the capability to launch a cyber strike, it is better to get it over with now, before everything is handed over to AI and society becomes at one with the machine.
Yes a month of disruption would be difficult and costly now, however Iran and NK with nukes and cyber capability would be far worse. Take the pain now and remove the regime only having to deal with small terrorist organisations that can be dealt with ruthlessly and piecemeal like Israel have shown the way. |
" however Iran and NK with nukes and cyber capability would be far worse."
NK has nukes and is a world leader in cyber crime - they almost wrote the book........ |
C-135 mentioned upthread now departed from base just south of Lincoln and appears to be heading NW, back to US?
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If Iran has a level of cyber capability that could cause such global disruption, then the wider implications (bearing in mind where Iran might be expected to sit on the global spectrum of cyber capability) are intriguing indeed.
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https://archive.is/20260130131338/ht...ikes-d7lmbcc37
The Times: UK backs American strikes on Iran to stop nuclear programme Sir Keir Starmer has signalled British support for a US strike on Iran, saying he backs President Trump’s goal of preventing Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Trump warned earlier this week that time was “running out” for Iran to come to the negotiating table over its nuclear weapons programme as the United States continues to build up forces in the region. Speaking in China, the prime minister said he supported Trump’s move to “deal” with the Iranian regime on both its nuclear programme and the recent crackdown on democracy protesters. “The goal or the aim here is that Iran shouldn’t be able to develop nuclear weapons. That is hugely important and, of course, we need to deal with the fact they are repressing protesters, killing protesters,” he told the BBC. “It is grotesque, what is happening, so that is where our focus is and we are working with allies to that end.” Asked if he was backing strikes, he said: “I am saying we support the goal and we are talking to allies about how we get to that goal.”...... |
A strike now is a month too late. The Security services have killed thousands and put the genii back in the bottle - at least for a while. Now the US will turn up, bomb Iran, kill some important (but rapidly replaced) people and then, again, turn to somewhere else.
Doesn't seem like a winning strategy |
Asturias, what do you assume the actual strategy to be?
Regime change or a counter to Iran's nuclear ambitions? (Granted, it may be both, but which one has primacy of place? Iran's ruling elite has been hammering their own people, consistently, for some years. One can go further back than the 2009 protests, but that is a convenient bookmark.) Then again, maybe you make an error by assuming that there is a strategy. ;) What is more likely is that this is just one more headline grab, just as the noise about Iranian government not killing their own people was. :p |
The strategy is probably to distract from the upcoming midterms
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"Then again, maybe you make an error by assuming that there is a strategy."
Possibly 'cos I've just finished Chernow's bigraphy of Grant - Lincoln, Grant, Sherman- now THAT was strategy....................... I feel a bit sorry for the people of Venezuela & Greenland - World Media Stars one week and 15 minutes later not even mentioned. Maybe we should take bets on where after Iran? |
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12029749)
A strike now is a month too late. The Security services have killed thousands and put the genii back in the bottle - at least for a while. Now the US will turn up, bomb Iran, kill some important (but rapidly replaced) people and then, again, turn to somewhere else.
Doesn't seem like a winning strategy The conditions that triggered the uprising by the Iranian people are still present. All that’s needed is another spark. That spark could very well be the sudden offing of leadership, and perhaps more importantly the elimination/degradation of the security apparatus used for maintaining control. |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12029864)
I wouldn’t be so quick to say the window has passed.
The conditions that triggered the uprising by the Iranian people are still present. All that’s needed is another spark. That spark could very well be the sudden offing of leadership, and perhaps more importantly the elimination/degradation of the security apparatus used for maintaining control. |
I don’t disagree Pistons. As the kids say, your mileage may vary.
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More Russian toys. Perfect for mowing down protesters. |
Of course even just approaching the carrier group with a drone able to uplink targeting data for a missile attack is, in itself, a potentially hostile act.
You get away with it with a manned aircraft where some discretion might apply - not with a drone. https://theaviationist.com/2026/02/0...iranian-drone/ U.S. F-35C Shoots Down Iranian Drone Heading for USS Lincoln An Iranian drone was shot down by the U.S. military on Feb. 3, 2026, according to a U.S. official cited by Reuters. The unmanned aircraft, a Shahed-139, was flying towards the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) as it was sailing in the Arabian Sea, prompting the intercept. The official specified that an F-35 Lightning II was scrambled to intercept the drone, and later shot it down. The USS Lincoln is currently assigned Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 9, which includes among its squadrons the Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 314, flying the F-35C. Details about the shootdown are currently unknown, and it is unclear how close the drone came to the ship and if it was carrying weapons. Shahed-139 The Shahed-139 is a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicle developed by Iran, which presents many visual similarities with the U.S.-made MQ-1 Predator. It features a conventional fuselage, rear-mounted pusher propeller, and straight wings optimized for long-endurance surveillance and strike missions. Images released by state media have shown the drone of carries an electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) sensor and possibly a small radar. There are no photos of the aircraft carrying weapons, however, considering that the aircraft is a further development of the Shahed-129 armed drone, it is believed that the Shahed-139 might be able to carry a weapon payload of four missiles.….. |
As neither mod nor admin:
A question for the panel: do you think that was a case of IRGC sending out a drone in order to see what the USN would do about it? A "testing the waters" kind of thing? |
The panel would probably have been astounded if the US had done otherwise.
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