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So the decision is made by White House staff?
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Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12040977)
But neither do they (including Pakistan) run on an ideology that doesn't care too much about its own survival and one which regards 'martydom' as a pathway to paradise!
Did you get sucked in by Colin Powell's UN presentation too? How many railway carriages full of WMD factories did they find? We were told Iraq was the same, the regime would lob biological and or nuclear missiles at Israel and could reach the UK in 45 minutes. All of it utter garbage, made up by the Bush/Blair administrations to convince a willing public that regime change was necessary and it had bugger all to do with oil. Yeah right! You're being played, again. |
Originally Posted by TURIN
(Post 12041051)
Another load of reactionary bowlarks.
Did you get sucked in by Colin Powell's UN presentation too? How many railway carriages full of WMD factories did they find? We were told Iraq was the same, the regime would lob biological and or nuclear missiles at Israel and could reach the UK in 45 minutes. All of it utter garbage, made up by the Bush/Blair administrations to convince a willing public that regime change was necessary and it had bugger all to do with oil. Yeah right! You're being played, again. The reason to deny Iran nuclear weapons is simply because if this regime obtains them and then has to choose between capitulation or using them, the risk of them using them is far too high. It is an entirely different situation to Iraq. Estimates vary but I have heard a figure of over 30,000 protestors murdered in Iran in the last month. And these are all innocent protesters, not Hamas terrorists! Are you ok with that? I’m not sure I can explain it more simpler than that! |
Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12041052)
You are obviously not understanding what is written as you are ‘replying’ to sentiments that have not been expressed!
The reason to deny Iran nuclear weapons is simply because if this regime obtains them and then has to choose between capitulation or using them, the risk of them using them is far too high. It is an entirely different situation to Iraq. Estimates vary but I have heard a figure of over 30,000 protestors murdered in Iran in the last month. And these are all innocent protesters, not Hamas terrorists! Are you ok with that? I’m not sure I can explain it more simpler than that! I disagree, the intent of everyone with nuclear weapons must be assumed to be that they will use them if threatened with overthrow. Putin's Russia, Iran, N Korea, Israel or the USA. The trigger never has been that the country had to be under threat of total destruction. The threat has always been the button will be pressed if whatever regime controls the weapons believes it is facing destruction/end. Believing the "threat" is less than that is simply avoiding facing reality. |
NYT: https://archive.is/20260222060606/ht...ezeshkian.html
Inside Iran’s Preparation for War and Plans for Survival In early January, as Iran faced nationwide protests and the threat of strikes by the United States, the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, turned to a trusted and loyal lieutenant to steer the country: Ali Larijani, the country’s top national security official. Since then, Mr. Larijani, a 67-year-old veteran politician, a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards Corps and current head of the Supreme National Security Council, has effectively been running the country. His rise has sidelined President Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon turned politician, who has faced a challenging year in office and continues to say publicly that “I’m a doctor, not a politician” and that no one should expect him to solve the multitude of problems in Iran. This account of Mr. Larijani’s ascent and the decisions and deliberations of Iran’s leadership as the Trump administration threatens war is based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, one of them affiliated with Mr. Khamenei’s office; three members of the Revolutionary Guards; two former Iranian diplomats; and reports from the Iranian news media. The officials and members of the Guards spoke on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss internal government matters....... Mr. Khamenei has instructed Mr. Larijani and a handful of other close political and military associates to ensure the Islamic Republic survives not just American and Israeli bombs, but also any assassination of its top leadership, including Mr. Khamenei himself, according to the six senior officials and the Guards members..... According to the six senior officials and the Guards members, Mr. Khamenei has issued a series of directives. He has named four layers of succession for each of the military command and government roles that he personally appoints. He has also told everyone in leadership roles to name up to four replacements and has delegated responsibilities to a tight circle of confidants to make decisions in case communications with him are disrupted or he is killed. While in hiding during the 12-day war with Israel, Mr. Khamenei named three candidates who could succeed him. They have never been publicly identified, but Mr. Larijani is almost certainly not among them because he is not a senior Shiite cleric — a fundamental qualification for any successor. But Mr. Larijani is ensconced in Mr. Khamenei’s trusted circle, which includes his top military adviser and former commander in chief of the Guards, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi; Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards commander and current speaker of Parliament whom Mr. Khamenei has designated as his de facto deputy to command the armed forces during the war; and his chief of staff, the cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi. Some of this planning is the result of lessons drawn from Israel’s surprise attack in June that wiped out Iran’s senior military command chain within the first hours of the war. After the cease-fire, Mr. Khamenei appointed Mr. Larijani as the secretary of the National Security Council and created a new National Defense Council, headed by Adm. Ali Shamkhani, to manage military affairs during wartime. “Khamenei is dealing with the reality in front of him,” said Vali Nasr, an expert on Iran and its Shiite theocracy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “He is expecting to be a martyr and thinking this is my system and legacy, and I will stand until the end,” Mr. Nasr said, adding: “He is distributing power and preparing the state for the next big thing, both succession and war, aware that succession may come as a consequence of war.” Iran is operating on the basis that U.S. military strikes are inevitable and imminent, even as both sides continue to engage diplomatically and negotiate on a nuclear deal, the six officials and three Guards members said. They said Iran had placed all of its armed forces on the highest state of alert and was preparing to resist fiercely. The country is positioning ballistic missile launchers along its western border with Iraq — close enough to strike Israel — and along its southern shores on the Persian Gulf, within range of American military bases and other targets in the region, the three Guards members and four senior officials said..... But the Iranian leadership is preparing not just for military and security mobilizations, but also for its own political survival. These deliberations, described by six officials familiar with the planning, touch on a range of matters, including who would manage the country if Mr. Khamenei and top officials were killed, and who could be “the Delcy of Iran” — a reference to Delcy Rodríguez, the Venezuelan vice president who made a deal with the Trump administration to run the country after the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro. Mr. Larijani sits atop the list, the three officials said. He is followed by General Ghalibaf, the Parliament speaker. Somewhat surprisingly, a former president, Hassan Rouhani, who has been largely cast out of Mr. Khamenei’s circle, also made the list....... |
Originally Posted by 42psi
(Post 12041074)
I disagree, the intent of everyone with nuclear weapons must be assumed to be that they will use them if threatened with overthrow.
Putin's Russia, Iran, N Korea, Israel or the USA. The trigger never has been that the country had to be under threat of total destruction. The threat has always been the button will be pressed if whatever regime controls the weapons believes it is facing destruction/end. Believing the "threat" is less than that is simply avoiding facing reality. |
Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12041115)
I think you are too quick to ‘assume’ that you understand the thinking behind the ideology which drives the Iranian regime’s thinking. Try thinking about it the way they think about it rather than how the west thinks about it.
Nope, I have no idea of their thinking. I refer to the thinking of how we view it. The only way to consider any country with nuclear weapons us to understand they will use them when it suits them to do so. It doesn't matter what we think is reasonable. |
United States Air Force - Middle East Activity 21 February Summary
Since the 15th January, there has been at least 249 C-17/C-5 flights from US Air Force bases and Army Airfields in the United States, Europe and Japan, to CENTCOM. There have been 58 KC-46 and KC-135 Stratotankers deployed over the past few days to Europe, representing around 15% of the entire USAF tanker fleet. The base with the most amount of flights has been Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with around 147 inbound flights. Since the 19th February, there has been an additional 21 that have either arrived, or are en route to, CENTCOM. A further 10 Army-related flights, 6 Air Force-related, and 5 Navy-related flights are currently in-progress. Coronet East 045 Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 2x #AE63C4 21-46088 - GOLD 02 #AE5BC1 16-46016 - GOLD 12 Two KC-46 Pegasus tankers have re-positioned from McGuire AFB to Bangor ANGB on a Coronet East 045 tasking. Receivers are unknown, rumours range from USMC F-35B/Cs to "AK" F-22s from Elmendorf AFB in Alaska. Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan Five C-17 flights from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany have been made to Jordan, all supporting the deploymnet of F-16s from Spang over the past week. Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar Al Udeid has seen a continuation of flights from Roosevelt Roads Naval Air Station, bringing it to a total of 12 from Puerto Rico. There has been a notable increase of Army-related flights from Dover Air Force Base to Al Udeid, with four in the ~24 hours. Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia The movement of support equipment for the 'AV" F-16s from Aviano Air Base in Italy appears to be being carried out by C-5s, which would mean less than the usual 10-14 flights we see for a deployment. In-progress Army Flights There are currently ten in-progress flights from Army Airfields, or are on Army support codes. 4 from Robert Gray AAF, two from Pope AAF and another four from Dover AFB. In-progress Air Force Flights There are 6 in-progress air force flights, three from Bangor ANGB, and one each from Langley AFB, Roosevelt Roads NAS and Elmendorf AFB. The flights from Bangor are potentially to support the vast number of tankers that have deployed to Europe over the past few days. Flights from Roosevelt Roads and Langley will be support for F-35s and F-22s. The interesting one here is a C-5 from Elmendorf AFB - REACH 1872. Along with a Coronet positioning in the North East of CONUS, there is a remote possibility of "AK" F-22s from Elmendorf Air Force Base being deployed. In-progress Navy Flights There are five in-progress Navy flights, with three from Roosevelt Roads and two from Naval Station Norfolk. This is probably to support the now two Carrier Strike Groups. |
Originally Posted by 42psi
(Post 12041117)
Nope, I have no idea of their thinking.
I refer to the thinking of how we view it. The only way to consider any country with nuclear weapons us to understand they will use them when it suits them to do so. It doesn't matter what we think is reasonable. Your last sentence is proof positive that Iran should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. |
Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12041336)
Then apply that 'logic' and ask yourself which way Iran will go when cornered by conventional weapons.
Your last sentence is proof positive that Iran should never be allowed to have nuclear weapons. are you suggesting that a 'Western' nation when faced with the same threat would not use nuclear weapons? |
Originally Posted by TURIN
(Post 12041342)
In that case, no country should be allowed to have them, or,
are you suggesting that a 'Western' nation when faced with the same threat would not use nuclear weapons? If we adopt the position that no western (or any current nuclear) nation would launch a first strike, then doctrine requires strong conventional forces to ensure that we can defend ourselves conventionally. That is where the west has gone badly wrong in that last 3 decades imho. |
Wait. Something is really not right here. Just 8 months ago on live TV, President Trump stated the following after US attacks on Iran:
"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated" Is he now saying that in just 8 months, Iran has managed to completely rebuild its nuclear program again? In 8 months! Last night the US administration claimed "Iran is probably a week away from having an industrial grade of nuclear bomb making material" Was Trump's administration lying 8 months ago or are they lying now? Was the first operation a total and utter failure? More people should be calling these things out and holding politicians to account. No one has learnt from the Iraq WMD fiasco of 2003? |
In his Fox interview, Witkoff said: "I don't want to use the word 'frustrated'... because he [Trump] understands he's got plenty of alternatives, but he's curious as to why they haven't... I don't want to use the word 'capitulated', but why they haven't capitulated. "Why, under this sort of pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power that we have over there, why haven't they come to us and said, 'We profess that we don't want a weapon, so here's what we're prepared to do?'" The envoy added: "And yet it's hard to sort of get them to that place." |
Originally Posted by Bonkey
(Post 12041458)
Wait. Something is really not right here. Just 8 months ago on live TV, President Trump stated the following after US attacks on Iran:
"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated" Is he now saying that in just 8 months, Iran has managed to completely rebuild its nuclear program again? In 8 months! Last night the US administration claimed "Iran is probably a week away from having an industrial grade of nuclear bomb making material" Was Trump's administration lying 8 months ago or are they lying now? Was the first operation a total and utter failure? More people should be calling these things out and holding politicians to account. No one has learnt from the Iraq WMD fiasco of 2003? Does anyone really take anything Trump says at face value? We all klnow by now, surely, that the man spouts random fantasies and bs as the mood takes him and much of it is only tenuously connected to reality. Anyone with an iota of military knowlege or experience shpuld know that any claim of "completely and totally obliterated" is likely to be just hyperbole, especially when issued minutes or hours after a strike on the other side of the world on hardened targets under a mountain with no humint to back up the claim. Indeed that claim was made iirc so soon after the event that I dount even Iran had any idea of the extent of the damage. The limitations of the weapons available and the depth of rock they needed to penetrtate made it almost certain that they would probably achieve little. Trump spouts whatever comes into his dizzy head on the spur of the moment, little he says can be taken at face value, let alone be believed as factual. |
Originally Posted by meleagertoo
(Post 12041489)
A reality check is needed here.
Does anyone really take anything Trump says at face value? We all klnow by now, surely, that the man spouts random fantasies and bs as the mood takes him and much of it is only tenuously connected to reality. Anyone with an iota of military knowlege or experience shpuld know that any claim of "completely and totally obliterated" is likely to be just hyperbole, especially when issued minutes or hours after a strike on the other side of the world on hardened targets under a mountain with no humint to back up the claim. Indeed that claim was made iirc so soon after the event that I dount even Iran had any idea of the extent of the damage. The limitations of the weapons available and the depth of rock they needed to penetrtate made it almost certain that they would probably achieve little. Trump spouts whatever comes into his dizzy head on the spur of the moment, little he says can be taken at face value, let alone be believed as factual. |
B-52 or B-2 AAR?
Update : One tanker of each pair turned back at Sunda Straight and the other continued on and went dark after the Straight. (Usually indication one topped up the other to full before RTB). Two pair of KC-135R/T Stratotankers, FRESH61/62/71/72, which departed earlier from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, are currently heading southwest over the South China Sea, possibly towing bombers or fighters while strangely avoiding land, with the tankers preparing to enter over the Indian Ocean, likely enroute to Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia. https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....58adbcec25.png |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12041527)
B-52 or B-2 AAR?
Update : One tanker of each pair turned back at Sunda Straight and the other continued on and went dark after the Straight. (Usually indication one topped up the other to full before RTB). |
Originally Posted by artee
(Post 12041555)
Is this the same Diego Garcia that Starmer has (allegedly) told the Americans that they can't use to attack Iran?
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Am I the only member ford bartless?
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Originally Posted by Bonkey
(Post 12041507)
My post was somewhat satirical. Just a sobering thought to think this man is in charge of the world's largest military force and nuclear capability.
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