https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....59a1616548.png

Will be interesting to see whether and how far Russia's domestic production of Shahed-derived drones is impacted, eg as a result of possible continued reliance on some Iranian components...

i believe it was the engines Iran was providing.

You're right, it cost a lot to business, and aviation in particular but the cost would have been far greater to the region, including Qatar if Trump hadn't managed to defuse it. Anyway it wasn't Trump's money so I don't imagine that would have bothered him. He might have made a financial killing anyway with the sharp moves in the oil price.

Reading BBC News just now he doesn't appear best pleased with either Israel or Iran this morning. It sounds as though Israel in particular has narked him, which I for one find surprising.

ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...vening-edition

Iranian Regime Survival

There appear to be internal fissures within the Iranian regime over how to respond to the conflict with the United States and Israel.

Opposition media reported on June 21 that former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly met with senior clerics in Qom in recent days to persuade them to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to concede to key US and Israeli demands, including the suspension of uranium enrichment. The clerics included Mousa Shobeyri, Hossein Vahid Khorasani, and Nasser Makarem Shirazi. Rouhani framed the meetings as an effort to “save” the Islamic Republic. It is unclear how the clerics responded to Rouhani’s requests.

IRGC-affiliated media claimed on June 19 that a “few suspicious and disreputable” individuals within the regime were trying to convince clerics in Qom to push for a compromise with Israel. Rouhani, as well as Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have reportedly unsuccessfully tried to contact Khamenei in recent days to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States. Ali Larijani’s reported support for negotiations is notable given that he made threats to US forces in the region in a post on X on June 23.

Unspecified Iranian leaders have reportedly developed a contingency plan to govern Iran without Khamenei in the event that Khamenei is killed or informally sidelined.

The individuals developing this plan have agreed that a leadership committee would functionally replace Khamenei and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel. The individuals have considered Rouhani for a “key role” in the leadership committee. Some military officials involved in the plan have engaged Gulf countries to try to gain support for such political change in Iran.

It is very notable that senior Iranian military, political, and religious leaders are discussing a potential post-Khamenei leadership structure in Iran. Reuters reported on June 23 that there have been increased efforts to appoint a successor for Khamenei, citing five insiders with knowledge of the discussions. These efforts suggest that senior officials are highly concerned about the stability of the regime and seek to ensure regime survival in the event that Khamenei is killed or removed.

Of note Trump AF1 and back-up SAM47 flights have reverted back to a security measure that was introduced during March 2020 of empty callsign. Radio callsign takes priority and they are still AF1 and SAM47 on ATC.
After the Iranian IRGC's Quds Force commander Soleimani was killed on Trump's orders during 2020 security was tightened. Plots to assassinate Bolton and Pompeo were uncovered. Later plots were uncovered to assassinate Trump. Trump is currently on his way to the NATO summit. AF1 not displaying on flight trackers as "AF1" was also seen during Biden's term from 2021. Interesting to see if the callsign display changes to AF1 and SAM47 as they head into Europe as is sometimes the case.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-warn...160447543.html

AF1 747 and SAM47 757 heading to NATO summit.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b7ecebcc95.jpg

Once again, some of you are trying again to turn this into another US Politics Hamsterwheel.
Please don't.
I've moved that bundle of posts to where they belong.

Slowly starting to get it !
Nobody pays a blind bit of notice.

Not Zelenski, not Putin and especially Netanyahu !!

What I find ironic is one simple day ago myself and Mr Mac were going against the flow and being berated for saying it isn’t over and one of the problems was Trump and now it appears that view prevails amongst you all..

Hopefully Iran and Israel can settle their differences and come to a peaceful solution free from third party influences.

.

POTUS on Air Force One on the way to the NATO Summit: "The ceasefire is VERY MUCH IN EFFECT — and I think we're going to keep it there for a long time." Audio clip >

From the BBC:

Interestingly Iran is half an hour ahead of most of the ME possibly leading to: "We ceased fire and you've still been shooting at us the last half hour!"

I'd rather hope that a ceasefire would be based on UTC.

What we have is "really, really reduced fire" rather than a cease fire.
They would say that, wouldn't they?

Let's check back in 48 hours and see if they have actually ceased fire.



Turning into a real Victorian Farce !
Anyone surprised ??

Yet still 700 years behind the west.

ORAC's post re the apparent "splintering" of the upper echelons of the Iranian Government concerning strategy raises a very important issue.

I watched a long interview of some long time CIA Analysts who spent their full career in the Iran Unit and one of the "Red Flags" they said to look for that might foreshadow either a revolt by the Iranian People or a takeover of the government by moderates would be what they described as "splintering" meaning higher ups who abandon, flee, challenge, or in a major way fall out with the Ayatollahs and their closest allies. They did not say what they thought "would" happen but merely opined that certain events were indicators of "possible" events.

Also, if one looks at how this "12 Day War" played out it very much suggests the IDF had some inside help as they had very detailed information re many people, things, and decisions.

Iran has been shown clearly far outclassed by the IDF, their Nuclear Program and ambitions have certainly been degraded if not destroyed, their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis) have all been decimated by the IDF and cannot be trusted to act on behalf of Iran anymore, and they did not find any real support from their erstwhile allies, China made it very clear any action re the Hormuz Straits was not in the best interests of Iran, and the Ayatollah did a runner to an underground hide out which suggests he fully understands what he risks by this continued intransigence. As there was opposition to his hardline stance (as noted by ORAC's post) he understands his vulnerability from domestic sources.

Today is a brighter day all round for Iran and Israel, the Middle East, and the World in general.

How likely is it that any "splintering" would lead to a more moderate replacement government.

Sure it's more likely to be a more extreme, hard line government. They have all the levers of power - the law has already been changed to make it easier to crack down on “infiltrators and spies”

Again, from the BBC

As I suggested above, let's take another look in 48 hours, and see if the sun still shines, or if the clouds have rolled in again.
(Good to see you back).

Interesting take on the BBC tonight regarding Israel's decision to cease operations against Iran, suggesting that it may in part have been a consequence of the significant economic cost it was bearing from businesses and schools being shuttered, also hospitals only allowing emergency admissions etc. Can they only sustain a couple of weeks of operations before they have to pause to give their country chance to recover?