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ORAC 16th September 2019 06:39

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ar-iran-aramco

Trump says US 'locked and loaded' after Saudi Arabia attack, as oil prices soar

Donald Trump has said the US was “locked and loaded” and to ready respond to drone attacks on a petroleum processing facility in Saudi Arabia, saying the US knew who was behind them.

The US president tweeted on Sunday night that he had “reason to believe that we know the culprit” behind the series of attacks on the Abqaiq facility, which is the world’s largest petroleum processing plant. The attacks disrupted more than half of the kingdom’s oil output and will affect global supplies.

Trump tweeted: “[We] are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed!”

It is the first time the president has hinted at a potential American military response to the attack......

The US secretary of state Mike Pompeo claimed over the weekend that Iran was responsible for the attack after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebel group claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Pompeo said there was no evidence the drones were launched in Yemen and accused Iran of “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply”.......

The US government produced satellite photos showing what officials said were at least 19 points of impact at two Saudi energy facilities, including damage at the heart of the kingdom’s crucial oil processing plant at Abqaiq. Officials said the photos show impacts consistent with the attack coming from the direction of Iran or Iraq, rather than from Yemen to the south........

The US officials said additional devices, which apparently didn’t reach their targets, were recovered northwest of the facilities and are being jointly analysed by Saudi and American intelligence. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters, did not address whether the drone could have been fired from Yemen, then taken a round-about path, but did not explicitly rule it out........

ORAC 16th September 2019 06:59

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/e...udi-oil-plants

EXCLUSIVE: Iranian drones launched from Iraq carried out attacks on Saudi oil plants


Just a spotter 16th September 2019 07:07


Yemen's Houthi rebel group, part of a regional network of militants backed by Iran, claims to be behind the drone strikes on two Saudi oil facilities that have the potential to disrupt global oil supplies.
https://taskandpurpose.com/iran-kamikaze-drone

As I type, Reuters is confirming the Houthi claim. Seems the narrative is already being shaped ahead of the claim of responsibility.

JAS

The Sultan 16th September 2019 09:16


Trump tweeted: “[We] are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed!”
So Trump confirms he is subservient to Saudi will. Like to see those tax returns to see how in debt he is to them.

Turbine D 16th September 2019 13:22


Originally Posted by The Sultan (Post 10571120)


So Trump confirms he is subservient to Saudi will. Like to see those tax returns to see how in debt he is to them.

Yah and you gotta wonder what US intelligence information Trump is ignoring as he cozies up to the Saudi Royals...

ORAC 16th September 2019 13:31

Or what evidence he is ignoring because he is determined not to follow his last 3 predecessors in getting dragged into a war in the Middle East.

An explanation for his latest tweet where he says his waiting to see what the Saudis want to do, is because he is exerting substantial pressure to get them to do nothing.

racedo 16th September 2019 13:47


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10571302)
Or what evidence he is ignoring because he is determined not to follow his last 3 predecessors in getting dragged into a war in the Middle East.

An explanation for his latest tweet where he says his waiting to see what the Saudis want to do, is because he is exerting substantial pressure to get them to do nothing.

Anybody would think there is an election in Israel this week......

dead_pan 16th September 2019 19:19


An explanation for his latest tweet where he says his waiting to see what the Saudis want to do, is because he is exerting substantial pressure to get them to do nothing.
​​​​​​And what evidence do you have for this assertion??

I'd be amazed if the Saudis weren't piling on the pressure for the US to act, but Trump is holding off because of the impact of any action on oil prices and hence the US economy ​​

ORAC 16th September 2019 19:53

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tel...an-11568644126

U.S. Tells Saudi Arabia Oil Attacks Were Launched From Iran

American intelligence indicates Iran was the staging ground for a debilitating attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil industry, people familiar with the discussions said Monday, as Washington and the kingdom weighed how to respond.

The assessment, which the U.S. hasn’t shared publicly, comes as President Trump raised the prospect of a joint U.S.-Saudi retaliatory strike on Iran, a scenario that risks quickly broadening into a regional armed conflict.

U.S. officials shared with Saudi Arabia the images, intelligence reports, and their assessment that Iran launched more than 20 drones and at least a dozen ballistic missiles at the Saudi oil facilities on Saturday, the people familiar said.

The Saudi-led coalition leading the war in Yemen said Monday the weapons used to hit the kingdom were Iranian, in its first assessment of the weekend attacks. The coalition dismissed Yemeni Houthi rebels’ claims of responsibility for the strikes. And Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Iraqi leaders that the U.S. didn’t believe their country was used to carry out the attacks........

After weighing the Trump administration information, Saudi Arabia announced that it was going to invite United Nations experts to come investigate the attacks, a decision likely to prolong the debate over any military response. Saudi Arabia said it would wait for the results of any such investigation before deciding how to respond........

Mr. Trump met Monday with his national security team to discuss the attacks on Saudi Arabia and escalating tensions in the Middle East, said a person familiar with the meetings. Mr. Trump and his team, which included Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and acting national security adviser Charles Kupperman, discussed possible military action against Iran, but made no decisions, said a second person familiar with the discussions.

Mr. Trump has warned that the U.S. is “locked and loaded,” but that it is waiting for Saudi Arabia’s assessment of the attacks before deciding what to do next.

“Both President Trump and Mohammed bin Salman feel the need to respond but neither wants war,” said Robert Malley, president of International Crisis Group and former White House Middle East coordinator under President Obama. “The question is how they achieve the former without provoking the latter.”......



Phantom Driver 16th September 2019 20:00


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10571302)
Or what evidence he is ignoring because he is determined not to follow his last 3 predecessors in getting dragged into a war in the Middle East.
An explanation for his latest tweet where he says his waiting to see what the Saudis want to do, is because he is exerting substantial pressure to get them to do nothing.

Below is an extract from analysis in today’s Quora digest . Makes interesting reading . Some of the "Warheads" surrounding Trump may not fully understand what they are dealing with when it comes to the Iranian people . Talks of nukes may be a stretch , but any kind of military action will not end well........

"The US is in between a rock and a hard place as a consequence of the latest attack by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabia. The Iranians were certainly aware of the Houthis’ plans to attack the Saudi oil facilities, and the Houthis must have coordinated the attack with Iran. Nevertheless, if the US gets into a war with Iran, it has the potential to spill into a far bigger conflagration.

In the event of a conflict between Iran and the US, Iran would likely use its commanding position on the mountainous, northern side of the Strait of Hormuz to halt all oil tanker traffic going through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has scores of license-produced copies of the Chinese C-802 anti-ship cruise missile. It is roughly equivalent to the US Harpoon. Lacking any kind of countermeasures or defenses, oil tankers transiting the Strait would be utterly defenseless against missiles and torpedoes launched by the Iranian side.

The US could potentially opt to retaliate with air strikes against Iran itself. However over the past 20 years, Iran has manufactured thousands of precision-guided, ballistic missiles that are specifically designed to knock out the US’s airbases guarding the Strait of Hormuz. In the event that the US directed air strikes against targets in Iran itself, the Iranian government would retaliate by unleashing these ballistic missiles on US bases in Qatar and the UAE.

While the US would likely threaten the use of nuclear weapons in retaliation for such a strike, Russia recently amended its nuclear posture to allow for the use of nuclear weapons in the event that a key ally was struck by nuclear weapons. The Russian government did this specifically to address the possibility that the US would use nuclear weapons against Iran in the event of a war.

Consequently, the US’s options are not particularly envious at the moment. Any strike against Iran will inevitably spiral into a major conflict. The US could opt for a diplomatic response, however the US’s sanctions landed the US in this mess to begin with. Iran is lashing out as a direct consequence of the sanctions. At that, with 50% of Saudi Arabia’s oil capacity knocked offline, the sanctions against Iran have become essentially meaningless as countries like Japan, China and India will be forced to turn to Iran to make up the difference, nullifying the effect of US sanctions."

racedo 16th September 2019 21:47


Originally Posted by Phantom Driver (Post 10571552)
The Iranians were certainly aware of the Houthis’ plans to attack the Saudi oil facilities, and the Houthis must have coordinated the attack with Iran. Nevertheless, if the US gets into a war with Iran, it has the potential to spill into a far bigger conflagration.

Right like Israel and Saudi's coordinate attacks with US.

Houthi's in a fight for survival and blockaded. They will take help and assistance from anybody. They will act as they see fit without respect to anybody because when in a fight for survival that is all that matters.

Telling anybody then likelihood that words will spill out because there are spies everywhere.

More column inches have been given to this attack that on the genocide in Yemen.

tartare 17th September 2019 01:19

Hmm - wonder if the US is contemplating some Operation Orchard-type assistance to the Saudis (if the Saudis choose to retaliate against Iran)?

Phantom Driver 17th September 2019 22:02


Originally Posted by racedo (Post 10571633)
More column inches have been given to this attack that on the genocide in Yemen.

Agree 100 per cent .

racedo 17th September 2019 23:25


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 10571752)
Hmm - wonder if the US is contemplating some Operation Orchard-type assistance to the Saudis (if the Saudis choose to retaliate against Iran)?

I have a feeling many countrys are happy to sit on their hands as far as Saudi's are concerned.

Mozella 18th September 2019 08:40


Originally Posted by Octane (Post 10153550)
And the draft dodging Clown in Chief who said Sen. John McCain is not a hero because he got shot down... How does one respond to that?

Here's how:

I was a fighter pilot in Airwing 16 when McCain (a light attack pilot) joined my Airwing part way through our 1967 combat tour. I didn't know him previously because, in those days, the fighters and light attack aircraft operated out of different Naval Air Stations when not deployed onboard a carrier. But my friends who were attack pilots warned me to watch out for John. He was considered something of a joke among those who knew him. I was told if I wanted to meet the Admiral's little boy I had better hurry up because he wouldn't last long. Even McCain admitted in his biography that he did was at the bottom of his class in school and was switched from ship duty to the Naval flight program only because of the intervention of his daddy. He washed out of flight training several times and crashed several airplanes. Anyone else would have been transferred back to the surface Navy, but John's daddy, the Admiral, got him re instated each time and eventually he got his wings. His father even pulled extraordinary strings to get John into an Airwing involved in combat so he could tick that career box. His fellow attack pilots resented the special treatment McCain got.

Sure enough, McCain didn't last very long, he got himself shot down, and became a POW where he disgraced himself by not resisting the enemy up to the standards his fellow POW's had set. My squadron mates who were POWs knew McCain in captivity and reported that sending him to a court martial after they were released was discussed as a real possibility. That didn't happen, but people who served with McCain do not consider him to be some kind of hero.

To make matters worse, he betrayed his wife who stood by him for all those years he was a POW and married into an influential family who greased the skids so that he could become a U.S. Senator. I'm sure he felt more comfortable in Washington where honor, sense of duty, and truthfulness are unknown commodities. Eventually he let down his own political party. He died a bitter, hateful, little shell of a man.

Radley 18th September 2019 09:52

A bit harsh considering he knew he wasn't a gifted pilot. He did not hide or use family influence to dodge the draft
unlike some others. He served his country.

ORAC 18th September 2019 11:05


And the draft dodging Clown in Chief who said Sen. John McCain is not a hero because he got shot down... How does one respond to that?
Ignoring the comment above, the proposition is true - as remarked after GW1 when the question was asked why aircrew who had been shot down did not get medals, the response was we get medals for shooting the enemy down, not the other way round.

However, I would distance myself from the comments about his behaviour as a POW. The reported facts concerning his refusal to cooperate, his subsequent punishments which he bore stoically and his refusal to accept early repatriation because of its propaganda value to the enemy is generally accepted as both heroic and gallant.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-...ccains-heroism

ETOPS 18th September 2019 17:00

Meanwhile....

Any thoughts on this Iranian strike capability?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49746645

racedo 18th September 2019 19:36


Originally Posted by ETOPS (Post 10573031)
Meanwhile....

Any thoughts on this Iranian strike capability?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49746645

Love the idea that somehow Israel per BBC map is non aligned.

TEEEJ 18th September 2019 20:58


Originally Posted by ETOPS (Post 10573031)
Meanwhile....

Any thoughts on this Iranian strike capability?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49746645

I was puzzled as to why Saudi defence ministry spokesman Col Turki al-Malki was referring to the cruise missile type as Ya-Ali?. It appears that their analysts misidentified the type. As far as I could see no wreckage of a Ya-Ali cruise missile was shown during the briefing.

The Ya-Ali has different shaped rear fins and also an internal engine. The cruise missile wreckage shown was from the Quds-1 type with the externally mounted turbojet.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7ea6f10cc0.jpg

Quds-1 cruise missile inset showing external turbojet.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....642a7097e4.jpg

Ya-Ali LACM

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....52d511120f.jpg



https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/arch...et-the-quds-1/



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