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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 4th Sep 2022 14:10

Aviation content, bloody lane jumper, bloody awesome, I love the way the oncoming car pulls over to let him pass. ;)


NutLoose 4th Sep 2022 14:21

Interesting read on Russian losses by Ukraine

https://www.minusrus.com/en


RatherBeFlying 4th Sep 2022 15:07

ACV Casualty Multiple
 
I suspect that ACV occupancy was high in the initial invasion, but that RF grunts subsequently acquired a reluctance to climb aboard, along with an alacrity to dismount pronto at the first sign of a missile strike or loitering Drone.
​​​​​​

Recc 4th Sep 2022 16:46

As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...

skridlov 4th Sep 2022 17:15

Found on Tom Cooper's page.
https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x
See video on HARM/Mig29

Low average 4th Sep 2022 18:39

Well, from what we've seen so far from Russia, what they say and what they do are completely opposite. A tactic that has worked well...up until this current invasion - when their real plans were obtained by the West and published to the world in advance.

if they say they're considering negotiations...worth assuming the exact opposite and keeping the pressure on.

Obba 4th Sep 2022 18:47

From Recc's upper post - Ya gotta laugh when Russian Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov says;

"According to Dmitry Peskov, Russia artificially "does not antagonize itself with someone." "Still, our country is rather a supporter of such international harmony, based on mutual respect, mutual benefit and readiness to take into account each other's concerns," the press secretary of the Russian president said"

.

Beamr 4th Sep 2022 18:53

Russian propagandists are yet again exceeding their competence limits by claiming they've seen German Leopards in Kharkiv area, as well as Finnish ItPsv marksman AA tanks (which btw were dismantled over ten years ago...)
The russkies must be doing very badly there as the lies are getting bigger by the day.

twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1566114957590134784


On the route Bereznegovatoe village - Bereznegovatoe station - Ternovka - Blagodatovka - Andreevka, the transfer of equipment and personnel to the southern coast continues. German "Leopards" were seen, as well as something similar to the Finnish ZSU ItPsv 90 (Marksman)

WB627 4th Sep 2022 18:58


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11290742)
As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...


I doubt given the conduct of Russian forces in Ukraine and the casualties they have inflicted, particularly on civilians, that Zalenski is in any mood to compromise, especially as it looks like he could be winning or at least kicking the Russians out of Crimea*. And why should he?

* How will the Russians hold Crimea when they can't resupply their forces with food, ammunition and equipment?

I think they are fu:mad:ed.




uxb99 4th Sep 2022 18:59


Originally Posted by Recc (Post 11290742)
As it is becoming clearer that Russian forces in Ukraine are extremely vulnerable in a number of key locations, there are signs that the Kremlin may be looking seriously at a negotiated settlement.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5546793 (in Russian, but google translatable)

This may be a very dangerous moment, as energy costs bite and 'reasonable' voices will talk about necessary compromise. Let's hope that Western resolve holds and the lessons of 2014 are kept in mind... Postponing the rest of this war will not lead to less suffering...

When the Lion stops biting down on your head is probably not the time to loosen your grip on it's testicles.

FUMR 4th Sep 2022 19:04

To keep it simple, my vote is for no appeasement and the complete destruction of Russian forces on Ukrainian territory (unless they fully retreat from said territory)!

Then Ukraine should be allowed to become a member of NATO and it should be made very clear to Putin that no further invasions (sorry, Special Military Operations) would be tolerated whatsoever.

But do our politicians have the ba**s for that?

Recc 4th Sep 2022 19:22


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11290801)
I doubt given the conduct of Russian forces in Ukraine and the casualties they have inflicted, particularly on civilians, that Zalenski is in any mood to compromise, especially as it looks like he could be winning or at least kicking the Russians out of Crimea*. And why should he?

Agreed; I think that the Ukrainians understand the situation very well indeed. The difficulty will come when the Russians are serious about negotiations and make this known. Moderate voices in the west will start to question the policy of military support to Ukraine when Russia wants a ceasefire and only Ukraine wants to keep fighting. They will argue that any peace is better than war, and that we should force Ukraine to negotiate (by threatening to withdraw support) so that a compromise can be reached. This will be an attractive argument to many, particularly those with only a passing knowledge of the history of the war. It will be a major political challenge, and I hope that the politicians are up to it.

langleybaston 4th Sep 2022 19:24

There are signs of weakening of the already weak resolve of Italy, but they were doing 2/3 of 4/5 of buggerall anyway.

The only voices that matter regarding "peace" are Ukraine and Russia. I believe that Ukraine is in the mental posture of Great Britain in 1940 ....... they have suffered too much to forgive, have too much to lose and will willingly suffer blood, toil and sweat.

The whole Western democratic culture is being tested. Pray that it passes the test.

Ewan Whosearmy 4th Sep 2022 20:15

Interesting analysis of Ukraine's HARM shooting MiG-29s by a former F-4G Wild Weasel EWO


NutLoose 4th Sep 2022 21:49

A view from the ferry, date unknown.


NutLoose 4th Sep 2022 23:56

Latest I have read is Putin is offering recruits land in Crimea to join up. I cannot see them giving up on Crimea nor Mariupol, too many lives were lost defending that to simply walk away. You don’t walk away when you corner a rabid dog, you kill it.

Aviation Content


..

Winemaker 4th Sep 2022 23:58

From the New York Times today:

As Russian forces fire precision-guided weapons at military and civilian targets in Ukraine, officers in Ukraine’s security service working with private analysts have collected parts of the crashed missiles to unravel their enemy’s secrets.

The weapons are top of the line in the Russian arsenal. But they contained fairly low-tech components, analysts who examined them said, including a unique but basic satellite navigation system that was also found in other captured munitions.

Those findings are detailed in new report issued Saturday by Conflict Armament Research, an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars around the world. The research team examined the Russian matériel in July at the invitation of the Ukrainian government.
The report undercuts Moscow’s narrative of having a domestically rebuilt military that again rivals that of its Western adversaries.
But it also shows that the weapons Russia is using to destroy Ukrainian towns and cities are often powered by Western innovation, despite sanctions imposed against Russia after it invaded Crimea in 2014. Those restrictions were intended to stop the shipment of high-tech items that could help Russia’s military abilities.

“We saw that Russia reuses the same electronic components across multiple weapons, including their newest cruise missiles and attack helicopters, and we didn’t expect to see that,” said Damien Spleeters, an investigator for the group who contributed to the report. “Russian guided weapons are full of non-Russian technology and components, and most of the computer chips we documented were made by Western countries after 2014.”

How Russia obtained these parts is unclear. Mr. Spleeters is asking the manufacturers of the semiconductors how their goods ended up in Russian weapons, whether through legitimate transactions or straw-man purchases set up to skirt the sanctions.

The investigators analyzed the remains of three types of Russian cruise missiles — including Moscow’s newest and most advanced model, the Kh-101 — and its newest guided rocket, the Tornado-S. All of them contained identical components marked SN-99 that on close inspection, the team said, proved to be satellite navigation receivers that are critical for the missiles’ operation.

Mr. Spleeters said that Russia’s use of the same components pointed to bottlenecks in its supply chain and that restricting the supply of SN-99 components would slow Moscow’s ability to replenish its diminishing stockpile of guided weapons.
New York Times article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/04/us/politics/russia-missiles-ukraine.html

Conflict Armament Research link:
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories...c78f5c5248bf3d

BlankBox 5th Sep 2022 01:17


The Ukraine war has revealed many serious weaknesses in Russian warfighting equipment. The staggering loss of tanks and armor, the failure of the Russian air force to enforce air superiority over a comparatively tiny Ukrainian adversary and the sinking of the Moskva flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet illustrate the Russian military’s many war failures.
https://asiatimes.com/2022/09/is-rus...y-mainly-junk/

Guess it's a legit question to be asked...would seem it to be relegated to 3rd world buyers...

NutLoose 5th Sep 2022 01:47

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a46de2dc3.jpeg

Beamr 5th Sep 2022 06:56

If true, the SAM staff has been sleeping. Or drunk. Or AWOL. Or the kit was just U/S.


#Ukraine: We can reveal yet more Russian targets hit by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones in recent days in #Kherson Oblast; what appears to be two 9A331 TLAR from the 9K331 Tor-M1 SAM system, as well as an unknown transport vehicle attempting to hide under foliage.


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