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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

langleybaston 2nd Dec 2022 11:07

D Tel on line today:

Around 13,000 Ukrainian troops killed since February

As many as 13,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed since Russia's invasion in February, a senior adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

OPSEC? Propaganda? Truth?
Either way, and by all the norms of combat and civil disasters, that suggests 3 x 13000 wounded/ sick/PoW/ desertions, total therefore "Casualties"
Approx 50,000 ........... Way below figures bandied around in the media and indeed on this forum. Again by past experience, about 1/3 of the wounded/ sick return to combat, many of them more motivated and experienced than hitherto.

A shocking thought to think, but seen from the eyes of a Ukraine sympathiser, that is a much better stance in which to enter winter.

jolihokistix 2nd Dec 2022 11:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340912)

If it's the only one, here's hoping that no-one is careless with their cigarettes.

Quote from Wiki: "Engels is a major bomber operations base, and is Russia's sole operating location for the Tupolev Tu-160strategic bomber."
Engels-2 (air base) - Wikipedia

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 11:13

Ukraines figure was always going to be lower than that of the EU, to reassure their public.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f45dcb0457.png







NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 11:32

Well, that proves solid runflats work! LOL.


:)


I don't hold out much chance for him


Seriously impressive camo



ORAC 2nd Dec 2022 12:07

Presumably from the same Wagner source that delivered the bloody hammer to the EU….

Foreign Ministry: Ukraine’s embassies, consulates in 7 countries receive blood-stained parcels.

Ukrainian embassies in Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Croatia, Italy, and Austria, the consulates general in Naples and Krakow, and the consulate in Brno received blood-soaked packages with animal eyes inside them, Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko reported on Dec. 2.

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 13:07

I rather like this response that is being voted on in Czech Republic

https://www.praguemorning.cz/petitio...ldings-prague/


More than 500 people have signed a petition calling for electricity, water and heat supplies to be cut off to all Russian-owned buildings in Prague, including those used by Moscow’s diplomats, in response to Russia’s massive missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

The signatures are being collected in an effort led by a Czech group called Arms for Ukraine.

“Over the past several weeks, Ukrainian towns and villages have been hit by unprecedented missile attacks unleashed by Russia,” the group behind the campaign said.

The Arms for Ukraine group added: “The main targets have been power plants, heating plants and water systems. This new phase of the war has had disastrous consequences for the daily lives of civilians. Apartments, schools and kindergartens, shops and factories, but also hospitals have been deprived of power and water.”

The group called on “state and private energy distributors to give Russian diplomats in Prague a taste of their own medicine,” according to iDNES.

“We demand that all Russian-owned buildings be disconnected from gas, water and electricity,” it said.

“Let’s give the Russian embassy in Prague a taste of its own medicine,” one of the originators of the petition, Martin Ondráček, wrote on social media.

“Let’s show Russian diplomats how it feels to be freezing at night, like residents in Kyiv have been, for example”.

ORAC 2nd Dec 2022 13:18

Remember those doubting the map of phone signals floatin* diwn the Dnipro was a genuine reflection of Russian casualties?

Seems they were right, they may well have been barges full of casualties…

It looks increasingly like that the Battle of Kherson inflicted far more Russian losses then known. The cities of Oleshky and Hola Prystan are defended by a skeleton army and now the Russian occupation announced "evacuation" orders for civilians in Nova Kakhovka.

From early Russian telegram Reports, it sounded like Ukraine was interdicting 70-80% of the barges full of troops with précis rounds guided by partisan and SF observers along the bank. This would explain the appearance now of such high casualties…..

Lonewolf_50 2nd Dec 2022 13:27


Originally Posted by cura (Post 11340648)
If this is happening then any foreign aid provided to India from any country should be held in abeyance immediately. Further, any contracts with Indian companies should be suspended pending review.
And if India is seen to be supplying / supporting the Russian aggression then they should be sanctioned immediately by all countries, fast action on sanctions speaks more talking about it..

Putting on my Realist/Realpolitik hat, that's a terrible suggestion. It is critical to keep India on side vis-a-vis security problems in the Indian Ocean's rim and vis-a-vis our common rival China.
It is acceptable to overlook their taking care of themselves if you take the longer view. Frustrating? Yes. But the world is a complicated place.
Widen Your Field Of View. Think mid-to-long term. And by the way, India has about three times our population, my fellow American; their government has a lot to deal with in looking after their interests.

Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11340650)
Agreed, but then we have to do the same for China.

Hilarious. Easily said, difficult to do without throwing the world into a recession.
Your plan for this is...what?

Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11340929)
Moldova has demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria.

Now that's interesting. And if they don't leave, then what? Cigarette butts dropped into flammable materials? Aircraft or drone patrols over various Russian ammo dumps?

langleybaston 2nd Dec 2022 14:19


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341007)
Ukraines figure was always going to be lower than that of the EU, to reassure their public.


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f45dcb0457.png

The logical conclusion to "they would say that, wouldn't they?" is that assuming both sides are telling lies, why bother to read the tripe?
Which leads to a very great proportion of the words expended in this thread being a waste of bandwidth.
Even "the camera never lies" is not true,

Confusious 2nd Dec 2022 14:36


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11341097)
Putting on my Realist/Realpolitik hat, that's a terrible suggestion. It is critical to keep India on side vis-a-vis security problems in the Indian Ocean's rim and vis-a-vis our common rival China.
It is acceptable to overlook their taking care of themselves if you take the longer view. Frustrating? Yes. But the world is a complicated place.
Widen Your Field Of View. Think mid-to-long term. And by the way, India has about three times our population, my fellow American; their government has a lot to deal with in looking after their interests.

Wholeheartedly disagree, if it is unequivocally evidenced that India is feeding the terrorist state then at the very least a sanction warning to stop should be sent from the West. There's 'looking after your own interests' and there's 'biting the hand that feeds you'. The political and economical caution should work both ways, they have a lot to lose.

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 14:58

She is now playing the we could be tried over this, we are now all responsible, let's worry the population that the west intends to terminate them or try them as well, spread it thin and hope the populace will sign up for the slaughter to protect the likes of her.

Interesting they are mentioning the defeat word! I did wonder if it is dawning on them they will now be prisoners in their own Country, unable to travel the world like free people for fear of arrest and trial.. Reminds me of Hitler saying the population does not deserve to live for failing him.


tanimbar 2nd Dec 2022 15:06

The air war - some light amongst the dim candles
 

"Air Defense is playing a crucial role in Ukraine in preventing deep incursions by the Russian Air Force. Join Chris as he talks to Justin Bronk (RUSI) about the current air war, the need for NATO air defense and the opportunities of switching over to a western fighter jet."

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 16:04

What can one say to this..


Ohh I know, just look at all these ugly Ukrainians

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ukrainian+...ages&ia=images

He really must try harder.

Confusious 2nd Dec 2022 16:07


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341179)
What can one say to this..



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...39091754704898

Ohh I know, just look at all these ugly Ukrainians

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ukrainian+...ages&ia=images

He really must try harder.

Sticks and stones, you immature excuse for a human being!

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 16:13

Happy now?

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=ukrainian+...ages&ia=images

Confusious 2nd Dec 2022 16:16


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341185)

Wouldn't it have been great if someone had replied to him with that eh Nutty?

Herod 2nd Dec 2022 16:28

Interesting contrast in your link at #12196. Note the speed she's talking, basically panic. On the wall a picture of Olena Zelenska, a picture of calm.

cura 2nd Dec 2022 20:07

Lonewolf 50, i am afraid to say i disagree with you entirely.
It is not critical to keep India on-side for the mid 2 long term, nor any other country, which is openly accepting aid from the western world whilst trading (at preferable terms) with what is now becoming accepted as a terrorist/rogue state.
Stop the aid money, evaluate contracts and apply financial sanctions.
The government knows exactly what its doing..

cura 2nd Dec 2022 20:13

Perhaps he and his co-presenter should look in the mirror more often....🤣🤣

Confusious 2nd Dec 2022 20:52


Originally Posted by cura (Post 11341271)
Lonewolf 50, i am afraid to say i disagree with you entirely.
It is not critical to keep India on-side for the mid 2 long term, nor any other country, which is openly accepting aid from the western world whilst trading (at preferable terms) with what is now becoming accepted as a terrorist/rogue state.
Stop the aid money, evaluate contracts and apply financial sanctions.
The government knows exactly what its doing..

Not send them a warning first?

Video Mixdown 2nd Dec 2022 20:55


Originally Posted by cura (Post 11341271)
Lonewolf 50, i am afraid to say i disagree with you entirely.
It is not critical to keep India on-side for the mid 2 long term, nor any other country, which is openly accepting aid from the western world whilst trading (at preferable terms) with what is now becoming accepted as a terrorist/rogue state.
Stop the aid money, evaluate contracts and apply financial sanctions.
The government knows exactly what its doing..

I don't see how any UK/India military cooperation can continue if India is going to pursue joint military projects with Russia. The risk of technology transfer must be too great.

SATCOS WHIPPING BOY 2nd Dec 2022 23:07

I recall seeing somewhere recently about USA / India doing an F35 deal.

rattman 3rd Dec 2022 00:21


Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY (Post 11341348)
I recall seeing somewhere recently about USA / India doing an F35 deal.


LOL no maybe super hornets, but snowballs chance in hell of india being allowed to get F-35. They are much closer to russia than turkey and turkey were shown the door

Winemaker 3rd Dec 2022 03:28

Yeah, sort of off topic, but still.....

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d11f9b2629.jpg

fdr 3rd Dec 2022 03:42


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341149)
She is now playing the we could be tried over this, we are now all responsible, let's worry the population that the west intends to terminate them or try them as well, spread it thin and hope the populace will sign up for the slaughter to protect the likes of her.

Interesting they are mentioning the defeat word! I did wonder if it is dawning on them they will now be prisoners in their own Country, unable to travel the world like free people for fear of arrest and trial.. Reminds me of Hitler saying the population does not deserve to live for failing him.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/15...C8_cHf068sAAAA

The FSB's edict that came into effect on 1 DEC 22 is going to silence most of Solovyevs own commentary and those of his "Brain?" Trust on his panels. Seems they cannot mention anything that involves any matter relating to:

The “Federal Security Service (FSB) order, which enters into force Dec. 1, lists information that is not classified as a state secret, but which ‘can be used by foreign states, organizations, and citizens against Russia’s security.’”

Both the structure and size of the Russian Armed Forces are topics of discussion now legally forbidden, according to the Moscow Times. Other punishable topics of conversation are weapons, troop deployments and training, troop morale, and crimes committed by military personnel.
Dan Parsons The Warzone, Dec 1 2022

When you have to shut up your own propaganda machine from talking about your war crimes, it would appear that some comprehension on the merits of the glorious leaders brilliant strategy would be starting to have foreseeable consequences in the wash-up of this "Special Whatever this is". That should stop every second comment of Margie Simonyan, and will lead more incoherent ramblings by Vlad Solovyov. Vlad Solovyov's "diatribes of anti-Western and anti-Ukraine disinformation, hatred, and vitriol on a daily basis" will now presumably not include any item related to war crimes by Russia, so that takes away 97% of all strikes on Ukraine by Russia based on the last 9 months of actual targeting constituting war crimes, they won't be talking about Wagner/Vagner (whoever) which meets all 7 elements of a war crime by their mercenary acts. So, they can probably talk about the weather in Vladivostok, but beyond that, not much else they can talk about without going to a well earned rest in a gulag. As they can't talk about stuff ups of the Russian military, that takes out every item related to their program content, so perhaps they will become an MTV channel. They would not be permitted to even mention a further mobilisation by Vlad the emperor. So how do they get the word out on gathering more mobiks I wonder. Never mind.

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/upl...ov-300x240.png

.

“the information weapon, of course, is used in critical moments, and war is always a critical moment. And it’s war. It’s a weapon like any other.”
Marge Simpson Simonise, 2013...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...tary-reporting

https://www.state.gov/disarming-disi...rita-simonyan/

https://www.state.gov/disarming-disi...imir-solovyov/


This clip gives an insight into the humour of Alex Navalny, why Putin is so fearful of him and hates him so much. If anyone can normalise Russia without it descending into civil war and the breakup of the federation, it is Navalny. The video of the truck driver and the pax crossing the Bridge of the Crimea is priceless, for everything else, there is Mastercard.




and... while Alexi remains in the gulag, his organisation is still active, making social commentary in spite of the brutality of the Tsar with no clothes...

Navalny's channel, worth watching to see what can be done to object to a dictatorship.
https://www.youtube.com/@NavalnyRu



Tartiflette Fan 3rd Dec 2022 05:26


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11341365)
LOL no maybe super hornets, but snowballs chance in hell of india being allowed to get F-35. They are much closer to russia than turkey and turkey were shown the door

There was an agreement for Turkey to buy f-35, however it was cancelled because Turkey bought the the Russian s400 missile system which mightily displeased the USA

NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 05:47

Then mightly displeased the Turks when they saw how crap it was in Ukraine.

NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 05:52

Heartbreaking to watch, one hopes they see him again.

​​​​​​​

NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 06:19

From the FT


Military briefing: Ukraine war exposes ‘hard reality’ of west’s weapons capacity

Nearly 10 months into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the allies that have backed Kyiv’s war effort are increasingly concerned by the struggle to increase ammunition production as the conflict chews through their stockpiles.
At stake is not only the west’s ability to continue supplying Ukrainewith the weapons it needs but also allies’ capacity to show adversaries such as China that they have an industrial base that can produce sufficient weaponry to mount a credible defence against possible attack.
“Ukraine has focused us . . . on what really matters,” William LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, told a recent conference(opens a new window) at George Mason University. “What matters is production. Production really matters.”
After sending more than $40bn of military support to Ukraine, mostly from existing stocks, Nato members’ defence ministries are discovering that dormant weapons production lines cannot be switched on overnight. Increasing capacity requires investment which, in turn, depends on securing long-term production contracts.
The US has sent about a third of its stock of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine and a third of its stockpile of anti-aircraft Stinger missiles. But it has little prospect of being able to replace these quickly. “There’s no question that . . . [supplying Ukraine] has put pressure on our defence industrial base,” Colin Kahl, US under-secretary of defence for policy, said last month.
The UK has turned to a third party, which it has declined to identify, to restock its depleted stores of NLAW anti-tank missiles. “There are some really hard realities that we have been forced to learn,” James Heappey, armed forces minister, said in October.
Weapons stocks in many European countries are even skimpier. When France sent six Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine in October, it could only do so by diverting a Danish order for the high-tech artillery.
There are two main reasons western nations are struggling to source fresh military supplies, said defence officials and corporate executives.
The first is structural. Since the end of the cold war, these countries have reaped a peace dividend by slashing military spending, downsizing defence industries and moving to lean, “just-in-time” production and low inventories of equipment such as munitions. That is because combating insurgents and terrorists did not require the same kind of heavy weaponry needed in high-intensity land conflicts.
Ukraine has changed that assumption. During intense fighting in the eastern Donbas region this summer, Russia used more ammunition in two days than the British military has in stock. Under Ukrainian rates of artillery consumption, British stockpiles might last a week and the UK’s European allies are in no better position, according to a report(opens a new window) by the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London.
“The west has a problem with constrained defence industrial capacity,” said Mick Ryan, a former major general in the Australian army. “A major industrial expansion programme will be required if the nations of the west are to rebuild the capacity to design, produce and stockpile . . . large quantities of munitions.”
The second factor is bureaucracy. Governments say they are committed to bigger defence budgets. Yet, amid so much economic uncertainty, they have been slow to write the multiyear procurement contracts that defence groups need to accelerate production.
“It’s a corporate finance problem,” said a senior European defence official. “No company wants to invest in a second factory line to boost production without long-term, contractual certainty. Will Russia still be a threat in five years and, if it’s not, will governments still be buying arms from the companies then?”


This lack of certainty holds on both sides of the Atlantic, say corporate executives. Saab, the Swedish defence and aerospace company which makes NLAWs and Gripen fighter jets, says it has been in talks with several governments about new orders but progress on signing contracts has been slow.
“When it comes to order intake directly connected to Ukraine . . . very little has really emerged or happened,” said Saab’s chief executive Micael Johansson. “I am sure it will come . . . but the contracting procedures are still quite slow.”
Britain’s BAE Systems also says it is “in talks” with the UK government about ramping up output of a number of munitions, while US defence companies have similar complaints about the lack of a clear “demand signal” from Washington.
“They are in a situation of ‘show me the money’,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “What they [the defence companies] are worried about is that they will expand capacity, then the war will end and the defence department will cut the contracts.”
Kathy Warden, chief executive of Northrop Grumman, said the Pentagon’s procurement procedures — which give a “very choppy demand signal” to build up stockpiles but only after a conflict rapidly depletes them — are not a model that is “going to make sense” if the aim is sustained investment in production.

Some defence manufacturers are already producing at full capacity, with shifts running 24 hours a day.
“When we have a clear understanding of what the demand signal is going to be . . . we are willing to fund expansion of capacity,” said Frank St John, chief operating officer of Lockheed Martin, which makes Himar artillery rocket systems and Javelins.
Western officials say supplying Ukraine has not jeopardised their own countries’ military readiness, while Russian military shortages are far worse. Moscow is having to source weapons such as artillery shells and drones from North Korea and Iran.
Yet, while there is a near-consensus across Nato, especially its European members, on the need to bulk up their militaries and defence industries, companies can only proceed once they have more contractual certainty.
“Contracts matter. Money . . . matters,” said the Pentagon’s LaPlante. “Once [defence companies] see that we’re going to put money [into orders] . . . they’ll get it, that’s their job.”
Additional reporting by Felicia Schwartz in Washington
https://archive.ph/2022.12.02-191246...reType=nongift

Tartiflette Fan 3rd Dec 2022 07:23


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11341425)
Then mightly displeased the Turks when they saw how crap it was in Ukraine.

Has that really been the case? There has been so little air-war that I am not sure any conclusions can be drawn.

If you are talking about its lack of success in combating Himars, then I am uncertain to what extent it is supposed to be able to intercept shells/low-flying short-range missiles. Given its very high unit cost, obviously one system cannot be deployed to every munitions dump

NutLoose 3rd Dec 2022 08:21

Well they have lost two, the Ukrainian airforce are still flying, they haven’t been able to detect HIMARS and they cannot detect the F35, so it’s not exactly a future sales pitch is it.

https://theaviationgeekclub.com/russian-s-300-and-s-400-air-defense-systems-are-unable-to-detect-israeli-f-35s-flying-over-syria/

https://defence24.com/technology/s-400-helpless-against-himars

henra 3rd Dec 2022 08:26


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11341456)
Has that really been the case? There has been so little air-war that I am not sure any conclusions can be drawn.

We won't know for sure. You can only look at the result. And the result of a theoretically completely overwhelming Russian Air Defence against an Air Force that was already tiny by all standards at the beginning of the war is not exactly flattering. And the effectiveness to protect against precision Artillery Rockets appears dismal.That may have various reasons, but at the end what matters is in the field, not high gloss brochures and impressive paper capabilities. And there are pretty exactly zero indications that it is really effective.

Low average 3rd Dec 2022 08:46

The absence of Russia's Air Force has been a bit of a mystery. Generally speaking, I think they will have a higher level of intellect - perhaps they are passively resisting the utterly ridiculous propoganda that "the Nazis are coming for us" and..."please launch your cruise missile at Ukranian cities to kill all the Nazis" b*******". Anybody with half a brain would realise they're being asked to committ unjustifiable war crimes and will be held to account.

Fitter2 3rd Dec 2022 12:05


The absence of Russia's Air Force has been a bit of a mystery. Generally speaking, I think they will have a higher level of intellect - perhaps they are passively resisting the utterly ridiculous propoganda that "the Nazis are coming for us" and..."please launch your cruise missile at Ukranian cities to kill all the Nazis" b*******". Anybody with half a brain would realise they're being asked to commit unjustifiable war crimes and will be held to account.
The RuAF has certainly been in action against civilian targets. Many of the cruise missiles and other weapons are air launched. It is plausible that some of the pilots were unaware of the targets but:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukra...vilian-1687191

As UKR anti-aircraft capability has ramped up, the RuAF has conspicuously been saying out of range.

Wokkafans 3rd Dec 2022 13:06


ORAC 3rd Dec 2022 13:30

I would imagine this is true across many utilities and industries….

People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C because essential utility workers have been mobilised – even after the supposed end of mobilisation – and sent to Ukraine, hindering repair and maintenance work at home.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...861106176.html
​​​​​​​

Beamr 3rd Dec 2022 13:51

Russian war propaganda has reached new heights,
According to Ria Novosti Ukrainian nazis are welding crews within their armored vehicles to be sent to suicide missions.



ORAC 3rd Dec 2022 16:29

Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has promised to send former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin home "in a plastic bag" if he goes near Wagner positions while wearing and carrying mostly NATO military clothing and equipment.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f9bac85c9.jpeg

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's former Deputy Prime Minister for Defence and Space Industry, is taking heavy criticism from Russian milbloggers for posing in an occupied region of Ukraine carrying and wearing NATO military clothing and weapons.

ORAC 3rd Dec 2022 16:37


Russian war propaganda has reached new heights,
I'll just translate a headline of today's Russian newspaper for you:

"Media: because of price increases Britons have to eat their pets' leftovers. British families have to choose between heating and food".


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....94f142be2.jpeg
​​​​​​​

Confusious 3rd Dec 2022 16:41


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11341739)
I'll just translate a headline of today's Russian newspaper for you:

"Media: because of price increases Britons have to eat their pets' leftovers. British families have to choose between heating and food".



A desperate Tweet from a desperate T*at!


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