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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Winemaker 1st Dec 2022 00:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340122)
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..

Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.

Winemaker 1st Dec 2022 01:09


RUSSIA’S FULL-SCALE INVASION of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has seen the return of conventional warfighting to Europe. This has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess Russia’s military capabilities and the impacts of a range of modern weapons on the battlefield. Ensuring that the correct lessons are drawn from the conflict is vital in two key respects: for Ukraine, if it is to receive appropriate military support from its international partners; and for NATO members, if they are to ensure they are militarily capable of deterring aggression in the future.

How Ukraine denied Russia its initial theory of victory and how the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) reprioritised to offensive operations in Donbas are now sufficiently historical to allow for a more open discussion of events. This report is an account of the pre-war plans of both Russia and Ukraine, the course of the initial phases of the war between February and July 2022, an overview of what has been learned about the AFRF, and an assessment of the implications for NATO and specifically the UK military.

This report is methodologically problematic. It draws on the operational data accumulated by the General Staff of the UAF during the conflict, which was made available to the authors. A significant proportion of this data cannot be made public but was used to inform the conclusions of this report. A good example is Ukrainian losses, which are factored into the conclusions reached as regards the relative effectiveness of tactics and capabilities but cannot be disclosed as they remain operationally sensitive. Other data that is cited was sometimes obtained through methods and sources of collection that are sensitive. The authors have considered the data in the context of its method of collection and the corresponding confidence in its accuracy. However, these judgements cannot be discussed in the report because the nature of the underlying sources for this data remains classified.
A very interesting analysis of both Russian and Ukrainian military and worth a read.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukrai...-web-final.pdf

jolihokistix 1st Dec 2022 01:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340088)

And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?

At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.

MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.

MJ89 1st Dec 2022 01:18


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11340147)
Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.

I heard a PPrune rumor, that opsec, may or may not matter, on a public forum, seriously :D
if the russians subscribe to the theory of gathering intelligence from pprune then they may not, or may..(see what i did there).. have no hope in hell in doing anything but, continue to lose this war.

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 01:44

Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.

fdr 1st Dec 2022 04:08


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11340155)
And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?
At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.
MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.

MRGA! as espoused by Vlad to save his daytime job has the same issues that it had after day 3.

Russia assumed out of Tsar Nick levels of hubris that the other team would give in to the charms of Vlads purported 2nd best army of the world in Ukraine. The corruption that has thrived under Vlads despotic rule has undermined what was already a corrupt system and assured that embarrassment would ensue. Vlads coffers are not being replenished, like the Russian military they are diminished by the hand of Vlad. The only thing that Vlad seems to have picked is that mobilisation would be "is problem....". Throwing mobiks into the fray without food, weapons, training or leadership seems to be an excellent recipe to bring down the federation, so more power to that, Vlad. Vlad is having issues with the 300K that he is effectively turning into 200's and 300's at record rates. Adding more 200's and 300's by increasing the next tranche of victims seems to be contrary to the needs for stability of the Federation. In the end, Russia has managed to alienate many of the republics, states and autonomous oblasts that make up the federation, and that is at the same time removing and damaging a generation of their population that was already too small to maintain Russia's demographics with a bucket or two of viagra. On the other side, Ukraine mobilised its population, and almost every citizen of Ukraine is intent on evicting their unwelcome neighbours.

Can't imagine the self important female talking head that appears too frequently on the Kremlin safe TV channel, being prepared to place her butt into the firing line to achieve Vlads ego trip, whereas every girl in Ukraine seems to be quite prepared and capable to defend their own land from the invaders.

Assuming the worst case of a win by Russia on the ground, that will ensure an indefinite occupation of a hostile public that Russia has shown it cannot sustain, even when they actually had a system that worked. Thanks to Vlad, and the rest of the oligarchs that have diminished Russia's capabilities for their own gains, that should result in a poisoned chalice for Russia, and that is their best outcome, which is a diminishing prospect.

Ukraine needs the extended range fire to impact Russian MSR within the borders of Ukraine. That is a manner by which both Ukrainian and Russian losses are minimised. Fighting in the trenches without interdiction of the MSR wasn't much fun in 1914-18 and this is not looking much better now in many parts. Ukraine has earned the right to be provided such fires, and they have demonstrated discipline in the employment of existing fire that justifies their provision. IMHO.

West Coast 1st Dec 2022 04:38


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340122)
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..

Combined arms integration is what will win the war as the front collapses back towards Russia after winter. Great to gift weapon their way, better however to teach them how to use those varying weapons systems in a coordinated fashion. Winter is the appropriate time to complete that training.


uxb99 1st Dec 2022 06:54

Snow on the ground suggests this is recent?

KarlADrage 1st Dec 2022 07:30

This is from March:
https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/276147

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 10:01

Non-Russians in Chelyabinsk are being given mobilisation orders, despite partial mobilisation supposedly having ended and despite not having Russian passports or even residence permits, which should make them ineligible…..

langleybaston 1st Dec 2022 10:50


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340165)
Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.

Relax, what I now know is limited to the date and time, and how many sleeps to Christmas.


NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 11:22

Russian captives are fighting back :E


NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 11:29

Shades of Kuwait


The first video shows Daud Khadziev, from the infamous Samashki village. Russians burned his cow alive, tried to burn his horse alive and ate the foal. The second video is from Ukraine Yampol zoo, russians ate all the Bison, deer and ostridges and starved to death a pack of wolves and a camel.

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 11:32

Carol of the Bells is originally a Ukrainian song called Shchedryk composed by Mykola Leontovych.

It first came to the US 100 years ago, in 1922 - Chicago marked the anniversary so beautifully.

Thank you, friends!

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 11:59

​​​​​​​Apparently, a Russian base near the Svatove-Kreminna front has been overrun by Ukrainian forces. (video)..

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 12:18

Ukrainian PR at its best again..


golfbananajam 1st Dec 2022 12:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340427)

brilliant.

Confusious 1st Dec 2022 14:25

France is first major western country to publicly support proposal for special court to try for crime of aggression.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...er-ukraine-war

fdr 1st Dec 2022 14:34

That's the compact Su-25. Improved ramp utilization and excellent in cold climates. These plains are retaining a substantial amount of their structure post arrival on the turf, pretty tough builds

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 15:29

The Ukrainians have been having a Mig 29 tag along with theirs as cover by the looks of this.


NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 16:12

Another possible reason to hand over longer range Himars. for the full longer article see the link


Outranging HIMARS, Russia Bets Big On Its Tornado-S & Lancet Loitering Munitions To Deflate Ukraine’s MLRS

Russian military expert Yuri Knutov said in an interview on November 23 that “if we talk about HIMARS, then our Tornado-S systems with a firing range of 120 kilometers and the ability to direct each missile individually have already gone to the front line. They are much more powerful than HIMARS.”

Russian media has been claiming that the Western stockpiles of ammunition were nearly depleted, causing concern in Kyiv about the future of its military supplies. At the same time, Russian officials and military experts refuted reports of Russia’s empty stocks.

Another Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov told Izvestia that the production of new artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems has increased.

For example, the Tornado-S MLRS, before the Special Military operation in the army, had 20 units. Now there are more of them. This system is similar to HIMARS but much better in many respects. This is a powerful MLRS, which you need to saturate the troops.”

Russia’s Tornado-S, like the American HIMARS, is a Multiple Launch Rocket System used to strike targets at longer ranges and inside the enemy territories.

The US M142 HIMARS is considered inferior in function to the Tornado-S. For instance, US M142 HIMARS can fire six GPS-guided 227mm rockets that can reach 80 kilometers and are accurate within five to ten meters.

In contrast, Russian ground forces 9A54 Tornado-S systems can fire twelve 300mm GLONASS-guided rockets at 120 kilometers with the same accuracy as HIMARS. Besides, the Tornado-S has a reduced launch readiness time of just three minutes, making it much faster and more effective. In addition, it also has new and improved payloads.

The Russian troops employed Tornado-S systems during the war in Donbas and again in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. These systems give Russia the same advantage as HIMARS gives to the Ukrainians.

Russia will force Ukraine to move its ammunition depots far into the rear and render its supply lines vulnerable, as happened with Russia at the hands of Kyiv.
https://eurasiantimes.com/outranging...ornado-lancet/

_Agrajag_ 1st Dec 2022 16:51

I remember driving across Salisbury Plain some years ago and having the car satnav go bonkers. Checked NOTAMs later and spotted that there was a GPS jamming trial taking place.

I assume that GLONASS operates on different frequencies to GPS, so can these Russian smart weapons be buggered up by jamming GLONASS?

Not my subject at all, so sorry if this sounds like a dim witted question. Just seems to me to be a possible a way to stop their high precision weapons from working, or at least making them revert to INS, which I assume would be less accurate.

MPN11 1st Dec 2022 17:26

"The Russian troops employed Tornado-S systems during the war in Donbas and again in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine." ... don't mention the War, eh?

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 17:58

Russia is negotiating with India on the supply of more than 500 sanctioned goods.

Reuters journalists managed to get acquainted with the list that Russia sent to India.

Russia is negotiating with India on the supply of more than 500 sanctioned goods. Reuters journalists managed to get acquainted with the list that Russia sent to India.

It consists of almost 14 pages and contains a request for automotive engine parts such as pistons, oil pumps and ignition coils. There is also demand for bumpers and safety belts.

For aircraft and helicopters, Russia requested 41 items, including landing gear components, fuel systems, communications and fire extinguishing systems, life jackets and aircraft tires.

Also on the list are raw materials for the production of paper, paper bags and consumer packaging, materials and equipment for the production of textiles, in particular fabrics and dyes, and about 200 more items related to metallurgy.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/LuVlPEw8zJ

GlobalNav 1st Dec 2022 18:02


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11340588)
Russia is negotiating with India on the supply of more than 500 sanctioned goods.

Reuters journalists managed to get acquainted with the list that Russia sent to India.

Russia is negotiating with India on the supply of more than 500 sanctioned goods. Reuters journalists managed to get acquainted with the list that Russia sent to India.

It consists of almost 14 pages and contains a request for automotive engine parts such as pistons, oil pumps and ignition coils. There is also demand for bumpers and safety belts.

For aircraft and helicopters, Russia requested 41 items, including landing gear components, fuel systems, communications and fire extinguishing systems, life jackets and aircraft tires.

Also on the list are raw materials for the production of paper, paper bags and consumer packaging, materials and equipment for the production of textiles, in particular fabrics and dyes, and about 200 more items related to metallurgy.

https://t.co/LuVlPEw8zJ

If India keeps supporting Russia, in any way, all US foreign aid should be cut off.
​​​​​​​Scares me to think of how many US tech companies use Indian contract workers. They are cheap and competent, but what’s getting imbedded in the code?

melmothtw 1st Dec 2022 18:20


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11339137)
Out of curiosity, what "more modern equipment" is Russia still holding back? There is nothing more modern in any significant quantity that could be provided to the Russian troops.

As an example,
  • the Su 57's are already in theatre but with 16 made really doesn't make much of a difference either as most are reserved for Kaliningrad.
  • The T90M's are already proven to be rather easy targets and the latest MS model has already been destroyed in fights as well.
  • Surely they have the Armata, but 20 of those doesn't change anything and there is no real evidence of an Armata successfully doing anything other than moving around slowly.
  • The hypersonic missiles are already in use in Ukraine.

Havent seen any evidence of Su-57s being in theatre, or even involved from inside Russia.

Beamr 1st Dec 2022 19:11


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11340598)
Havent seen any evidence of Su-57s being in theatre, or even involved from inside Russia.

Russkies claim they've been in use, but you are correct in terms of having any 3rd party hard evidence. Nevertheless, there are too few to say that the Russkies would be holding back any in reserves.

https://eurasiantimes.com/in-ukraine...nch-holes/?amp

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 19:16


Russia Confirms Using Su-57 Fighters In Ukraine War As They Destroy Targets, Punch Holes In Western Myths


EUROPEEXPERT REVIEWS
ByVijainder K Thakur
October 19, 2022

The Russian MoD finally broke its silence on using Su-57 fighters in the ongoing special military operations (SMO). General Sergei Surovikin, commander of the joint group of troops in the area of the SMO, told reporters on Tuesday, October 18, 2022.

“In terms of the quality of combat use, I would especially like to single out the Su-57 fifth-generation multifunctional aircraft. Having a wide range of weapons, it solves multifaceted tasks of hitting air and ground targets in each sortie,” he said.

General Surovikin’s comment suggests that the Su-57 is being used both in the air-to-air and air-to-ground roles, and in both roles, it had scored hits.

Earlier, in June 2022, Izvestia had reported that Russia had deployed four Su-57 for the SMO, and the aircraft was being used to establish a tactical information network.

Earlier in 2018, Russia officially acknowledged using four Su-57 during the Syrian campaign. The State Duma’s expert council for the aviation industry, Vladimir Gutenev, said in July 2018.

“The stay of our four Su-57s in Syria has certainly allowed us to obtain additional information about the capabilities of this machine to detect American F-22s and F-35s that are in the same theatre of operations.”



https://t.co/cmpStZd1CG

melmothtw 1st Dec 2022 19:39


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340625)

With respect, Russia confirming something isn't the confirmation I was looking for.

Considering everything else operating in and around theatre has been photographed, or tracked, or whatever, there has been nothing for the Su-57.

cura 1st Dec 2022 19:45

@ORAC & GlobalNav

If this is happening then any foreign aid provided to India from any country should be held in abeyance immediately. Further, any contracts with Indian companies should be suspended pending review.
And if India is seen to be supplying / supporting the Russian aggression then they should be sanctioned immediately by all countries, fast action on sanctions speaks more talking about it..

melmothtw 1st Dec 2022 19:47


Originally Posted by cura (Post 11340648)
If this is happening then any foreign aid provided to India from any country should be held in abeyance immediately. Further, any contracts with Indian companies should be suspended pending review.
And if India is seen to be supplying / supporting the Russian aggression then they should be sanctioned immediately by all countries, fast action on sanctions speaks more talking about it..

Agreed, but then we have to do the same for China.

cura 1st Dec 2022 20:00

@melmothtw

Yes why not, if they are seen to have been approached to supply or are negotiating to supply then yes.
I still find it difficult to see why the 'western" world provides aid, in various guises, to countries that are not really needing.

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 23:45


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11340643)
With respect, Russia confirming something isn't the confirmation I was looking for.

Considering everything else operating in and around theatre has been photographed, or tracked, or whatever, there has been nothing for the Su-57.

:E I await your visual confirmation then :}

ORAC 2nd Dec 2022 05:56

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....729c63f9d.jpeg

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 09:12

I know it is the Daily Fail, but they do not learn...


ussia appears to be preparing for another large-scale air attack on Ukraine with dozens of bombers spotted massing at a key airbase.

Two dozen Tu-95 and Tu-160 long-range bombers have gathered at Engels-2 air base, near the city of Saratov, alongside fuel tanks, support vehicles, and repair supplies.

Analysts say crates - likely ammunition boxes containing Kh-55 and Kh-101 cruise missiles - are also visible near the aircraft, suggesting a large-scale attack on Ukraine is 'imminent.'

The attack will almost certainly focus on destroying Ukraine's already-battered power and water network which has been pounded by cruise missiles and Iranian-made kamikaze drones in recent weeks, leaving people freezing in their homes.



'Imminent large-scale attack' on Ukraine feared as Russian bombers mass at air base (msn.com)

ORAC 2nd Dec 2022 09:35

Moldova has demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria.

Tartiflette Fan 2nd Dec 2022 10:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340912)

Do not learn what ?

NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 10:55

More from Ukraines excellent PR service.


NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 10:59

State of play at the Dam, you can see the lock gates in one of the shots where the road was dropped.

.



NutLoose 2nd Dec 2022 11:00


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11340990)
Do not learn what ?

Not to stack munitions next to the aircraft.


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