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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

henra 17th Aug 2022 21:11


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11280287)
It would be far more effective for Russia to stop sending its troops to Ukraine and to remove the ones that are there. Otherwise Ukraine will send them back in stretchers, ambulances and body bags.
People so readily accept lies. I wish they would listen to BBC.

As long as they find enough mercenaries from remote regions (which are seen by the Moscovites and St Pete's anyway as villains/savages) and the war stays far away enough from these average Russians thwy will continue to believe in these lies (as they are convenient). Only when suddenly the neighbours sons will go to Ukraine and not come back in one piece people in Russia will start to see this as something different than a mere spectacle on TV. What surely hurts them most is the abysmal performance of the once dreaded Russian armed forces and the loss in glory caused by this. Ironically and sadly this will make a retreat even more difficult..

Wokkafans 17th Aug 2022 21:34

Aviation content.



NutLoose 17th Aug 2022 21:47


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11280341)
As much as I like your analysis and conclusion and would love to see Russia going a rational approach and choosing alternative 4, I have major difficulties seeing this happening.
Irrationality has brought them to where they are and I don't see the slightest sign of rationality suddenly kicking in. And I'm afraid meanwhile the problem is not only Putin any more. He has pushed the population (where a significant part were anyway feeling phantom pains for loss of the Soviet empire) so far in a direction that it will be very difficult to get himself out of the obligation to deliver. Any retreat will be seen as weakness and defeat by the people. Tyrants are typically overthrown when they are weak and compliant and not when they are strong and cruel. So, the better options for Russia are rather not the good options for Putin himself. That's why we will likely continue to see this tragedy for quite some time to come.

I would seriously doubt that would even be possible, withdrawing to the 2014 lines against a determined and now seriously better armed Ukrainian military. Plus an effectively thinned out and decimated male population of those supposed independent regions would require significant Russian presence to hold them, as well as the requirement to make restitutions and also the loss still of the significant mineral and energy reserves of the country.

ORAC 17th Aug 2022 21:53

Russia pulls military aircraft out of Crimea

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that no less than 24 planes and 14 helicopters had been transferred out of airfields in Crimea.

mickjoebill 17th Aug 2022 21:56

According to a utuber the very busy looking flight radar map of USA shows 400 military aircraft airborne over USA.
50% above normal busy.
Blackhawks in flocks of twenty, submarine hunters doing search patterns in the desert.
​​​​
Mjb



NutLoose 17th Aug 2022 22:03


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11280366)
Russia pulls military aircraft out of Crimea

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that no less than 24 planes and 14 helicopters had been transferred out of airfields in Crimea.

And they shut the bridge to those fleeing to allow military and FSB families to escape


surely if you knew you could hold it there would be no need to evacuate them.

NutLoose 17th Aug 2022 22:43

I wonder how many are stolen?


fdr 17th Aug 2022 23:00


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11280180)
Gentlemen, the enemy has four options.
He will choose the fifth.

:}:ok:

The other team gets a vote, and assuredly will do something that will surprise. The logical choices remain the same, the illogical choices are up to the players to select. The spectrum from smoking ruin to sending flowers. The national interest however is more specific in the options.

We are seeing a bunch of crazies messing about with a NPP that can cause as much or more devastation to their own team as to anyone else, so, yup, Door #5 is always in play.

fdr 17th Aug 2022 23:07


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11280366)
Russia pulls military aircraft out of Crimea

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate reported that no less than 24 planes and 14 helicopters had been transferred out of airfields in Crimea.

If the Russians transferred these aircraft over to the Ukrainians it would avoid a lot of anxiety, and probably prolong the life of the airframes.

NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 01:34

They really are not the brightest military in the world.



fdr 18th Aug 2022 05:10


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11280446)

It's probably on the crass side to find humor in their whoopsy, but, hey, if they were sitting in the shadow of St Basil's it would hardly be a point of order. Would be nice of they were back there drinking Vodka instead of sitting in the middle of their criminal enterprise.

OTOH, would be nice that they don't realise that they are geolocating themselves, so perhaps a great thing to not mention. the more snaps followed by suggestions to vacate the premises, the sooner balance will return to the rock.

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 05:54


A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. He served with the Feodosia-based 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment and fought in southern Ukraine for two months. A thread follows.

Filatyev was part of the force that captured Kherson in February and was hospitalised with an eye injury after spending more than a month under heavy Ukrainian artillery bombardment near Mykolaiv. By that time, he was completely disillusioned with the war.

While recuperating, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.

In this first installment, I'll cover FIlatyev's experiences in the six months before the war, when he was going through training as a paratrooper in Crimea with the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment. It was not a happy experience for him.…..

Tartiflette Fan 18th Aug 2022 07:22

Just reading today's MOD Intelligence Update.

" It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements or it being left off entirely."

A bit puzzling when it talks of maintenance: what maintenance would there be ? As for "leaving it off ", am I likely to be right in guessing that the tanks are delivered without the ERA and this is then fitted either at some base depot , or by the actual crews themselves ?

Tartiflette Fan 18th Aug 2022 07:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11280446)
They really are not the brightest military in the world.

According to the Kyiv Post, the attack on the Lysychansk HQ may have killed up to 100 Russian officers and the same number for the Wagner HQ in Popasna.

https://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war...n-attacks.html

Also from The Guardian:

" Russia appoints new Black Sea commander. Russia has reportedly replaced the commander of its Crimea-based Black Sea fleet after explosions rocked the peninsula this week.

Russia’s RIA news agency cited sources as saying Admiral Igor Osipov had been replaced with Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

If confirmed, it would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official in the war so far."

fdr 18th Aug 2022 08:35


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11280533)
...Admiral Igor Osipov had been replaced with Vice-Admiral Viktor Sokolov. If confirmed, it would mark one of the most prominent sackings of a military official in the war so far."

Does Wiktor have a good retirement plan I wonder. Speaking of which, whatever happened to General Creosote? Command may be a lonely post, but at least in Russia it is mercifully brief. :}

NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 09:30


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11280531)
Just reading today's MOD Intelligence Update.

" It is highly likely that many Russian tank crews lack the training to maintain ERA, leading to either poor fitting of the explosive elements or it being left off entirely."

A bit puzzling when it talks of maintenance: what maintenance would there be ? As for "leaving it off ", am I likely to be right in guessing that the tanks are delivered without the ERA and this is then fitted either at some base depot , or by the actual crews themselves ?

Some added more, you can often see knocked out tanks where they have been scavenged for the blocks, I do wonder about the ineffectivness on some is simply down to the wooden and rubber blocks fitted in some of them by those making a quick buck back home.

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 09:44

A message from Ukraine before winter sets in an the Russian PR campaign about energy starts..


NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 10:03

Film showing the Dam bridge still in use and "heavy Vehicles" on it, though the military truck shown is coming towards the camera from this side of the damage, so could be staged, i.e reverse up to it then pretend to drive off it and the tanker seen could be empty, stripped down, or craned on to a good bit etc, as oddly the camera vehicle pans away and stays pointing away as it passes by. It looks like they have put large plates or slabs over some damage.


NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 10:12


campbeex 18th Aug 2022 10:13


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11280494)
A 34-year-old former Russian paratrooper, Pavel Filatyev, has published a remarkable in-depth account of his experiences of the Ukraine war. He served with the Feodosia-based 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment and fought in southern Ukraine for two months. A thread follows.

Filatyev was part of the force that captured Kherson in February and was hospitalised with an eye injury after spending more than a month under heavy Ukrainian artillery bombardment near Mykolaiv. By that time, he was completely disillusioned with the war.

While recuperating, Filatyev wrote a scathing 141-page memoir titled 'ZOV' (after the recognition symbols painted on vehicles of the invasion force) and published it on VKontakte (Russian Facebook). Not surprisingly, he's now been forced to flee Russia for his own safety.

In this first installment, I'll cover FIlatyev's experiences in the six months before the war, when he was going through training as a paratrooper in Crimea with the 56th Guards Air Assault Regiment. It was not a happy experience for him.…..

Thank you, ORAC.

Also reported here: ‘I don’t see justice in this war’: Russian soldier exposes rot at core of Ukraine invasion

WB627 18th Aug 2022 10:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11280583)
Some added more, you can often see knocked out tanks where they have been scavenged for the blocks, I do wonder about the ineffectivness on some is simply down to the wooden and rubber blocks fitted in some of them by those making a quick buck back home.

What a bunch of f:mad:wits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right :ugh:. Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? :mad: How many ships and lives did that then cost us?

Does the MOD know nothing about OPSEC? Or are they now fighting for the Russians?


Tartiflette Fan 18th Aug 2022 10:54


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11280639)
What a bunch of f:mad:wits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right :ugh:. Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? :mad: ?

This is nothing like the fusing of the bombs where the necessary corrective order could be given by one general and it would be implemented by a small number of armourers (specialists). If just telling Russian squaddies not to do something had the desired effect, then their army would be much more effective in many ways. As it is, their obedience to orders is such that they continue to drink brake fluid and alcohol out of compasses/instruments, so any vague orders about ERA are not likely to have any effect.

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 11:11

Australia cancels approval for new Russian embassy building.

Authorities in Canberra cited failure to meet construction deadlines as the reason for terminating the lease on a new building, though they said the full-scale invasion of Ukraine "did not help" Russia's case.

fdr 18th Aug 2022 12:21


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11280610)
Film showing the Dam bridge still in use and "heavy Vehicles" on it, though the military truck shown is coming towards the camera from this side of the damage, so could be staged, i.e reverse up to it then pretend to drive off it and the tanker seen could be empty, stripped down, or craned on to a good bit etc, as oddly the camera vehicle pans away and stays pointing away as it passes by. It looks like they have put large plates or slabs over some damage.

https://twitter.com/glosmeusec/statu...83086092107779

So... the dam there is actually a run of river design, it is not a flood or reservoir type.... The road way is elevated above the dam wall proper, the dam being earth, and gravity mix. On the southern side, there is a lock... that the single road crosses on a bridge. That would seem to be a choke point worthy of some precision, drop the bridge, take out the lock function without impacting the dam proper.

DaveReidUK 18th Aug 2022 12:35

Interesting NYT profile of Selçuk Bayraktar (of TB2 fame): The Turkish Drone That Changed the Nature of Warfare

Good example of how to combine technical genius with political nous.

NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 12:48


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11280639)
What a bunch of f:mad:wits, tell the Orks what they are doing wrong so they can put it right :ugh:. Did the MOD learn NOTHING from the Falklands war when the BBC told the Argies why their bombs were not exploding? :mad: How many ships and lives did that then cost us?

Does the MOD know nothing about OPSEC? Or are they now fighting for the Russians?

The Ukrainians published it on the web long before the MOD BTW

See

wooden replacements



NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 12:58


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11280685)
So... the dam there is actually a run of river design, it is not a flood or reservoir type.... The road way is elevated above the dam wall proper, the dam being earth, and gravity mix. On the southern side, there is a lock... that the single road crosses on a bridge. That would seem to be a choke point worthy of some precision, drop the bridge, take out the lock function without impacting the dam proper.

See


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....539e8f40c.jpeg


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f4c38403b.jpeg


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f33c479a9.jpeg



NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 14:33

Possibly the first video of the American M982 Excalibur in action: as claimed, guided shells fired from a M777A2 howitzer were used in Kherson Oblast. Wow, just working down the line taking them out one shot at a time.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update...33483945099264

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 15:51

NBC NEWS:

A Ukrainian military intelligence official tells @NBCNews that Russia has told its nuclear workers stationed at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant NOT to go to work tomorrow.

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence directorate, tells me they received information a half-hour ago that Russia directed the Rosatom (Russia's state-run nuclear company) officials at ZNPP not to show up tomorrow.

This comes after Russia said Ukraine was planning a provocation tomorrow at the plant. Ukrainian officials believe that's Russia laying the groundwork to conduct a false flag operation there tomorrow and blame it on Ukraine….


ORAC 18th Aug 2022 15:55

Russian SU-30SM RF-81771 down, unknown location


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b31485f06.jpeg

NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 16:00


FUMR 18th Aug 2022 16:29

Nutty, your M982 link requires an account unfortunately.

Tartiflette Fan 18th Aug 2022 16:49


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11280755)
Possibly the first video of the American M982 Excalibur in action: as claimed, guided shells fired from a M777A2 howitzer were used in Kherson Oblast. Wow, just working down the line taking them out one shot at a time.

Incredible accuracy at probably 25 km range (assume both gun and truck well back from their respective fronts). they must have a lot of those shells, otherwise I'm not sure that would be a good investment of a $ 110K shell to knock out a truck - even a big one. Having said that, I've no idea what other equipment would normally accompany those big Kamaz trucks.

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 16:58

Russia's top propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, twice honored by Putin for his "service to the Fatherland," threatens the US & Europe with nuclear war if they defend the Baltics from Russia.

Wokkafans 18th Aug 2022 17:16

Russian vehicles parked inside the nuclear power plant:


NutLoose 18th Aug 2022 17:17


Originally Posted by FUMR (Post 11280831)
Nutty, your M982 link requires an account unfortunately.

Strange that as I haven’t got one, but never mind, try


Video Mixdown 18th Aug 2022 17:18


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11280839)
Incredible accuracy at probably 25 km range (assume both gun and truck well back from their respective fronts). they must have a lot of those shells, otherwise I'm not sure that would be a good investment of a $ 110K shell to knock out a truck - even a big one. Having said that, I've no idea what other equipment would normally accompany those big Kamaz trucks.

Ukraine's targeting intelligence system has been working very well recently, so it's likely that they had a good reason to hit them.

FUMR 18th Aug 2022 17:43

Yup, that worked. Thanks.

ORAC 18th Aug 2022 18:59

Russian media: Russia transfers MiG-31 aircraft equipped with Kinzhal missiles close to Lithuania, Poland.

Russian media TASS reported that 3 Mikoyan MiG-31 interceptor aircraft have been relocated to the Chkalovsk airfield in Kaliningrad, which borders Lithuania and Poland.

Wokkafans 18th Aug 2022 19:39



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