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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

WB627 1st Oct 2022 21:38


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306338)


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11306362)
There is no rational reason to not striking the rail bridge. It has gone past its expiry date

Those tanks are going to the Ukrainians, it's just part of the ongoing transfer of equipment from the Russians :E

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....acbf52b681.jpg


NutLoose 1st Oct 2022 23:51

Those tanks as you call it are taking innocent Ukrainian lives and is not a laughing matter.

albatross 2nd Oct 2022 01:37


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306430)
Those tanks as you call it are taking innocent Ukrainian lives and is not a laughing matter.

Hopefully they can be taken out before deployment.
If the Russians’ big plan is to strike north or east from Crimea…good way to telegraph their brilliant plan by sending those tanks together across the causeway/bridge in daylight. They they have to support them. Logistics may be difficult.

fdr 2nd Oct 2022 03:31


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306430)
Those tanks as you call it are taking innocent Ukrainian lives and is not a laughing matter.

The Ukrainians have maintained high morale throughout this evil act of Russia, and part of that has been from their sense of humor. The only part of the comment by 627 that would be annoying is that it wasn't a Ukrainian that thought it up. There is additionally a lot of truth in the observation; Russia could simplify a lot of their processes by just handing their equipment over to Ukraine, and shooting 1:4 of their troops, and taking off a limb of the remainder.

Dropping the rail bridge is still a worthwhile use of a PGM, as really, Ukraine has more Russian equipment than they really need at this time. Now, if Germany would hand over some Leopards, they would make room for those though. Kerch has been in range for months, and Ukraine knows how to drop the spans.

4everAD 2nd Oct 2022 03:45


Originally Posted by albatross (Post 11306467)
Hopefully they can be taken out before deployment.
If the Russians’ big plan is to strike north or east from Crimea…good way to telegraph their brilliant plan by sending those tanks together across the causeway/bridge in daylight. They they have to support them. Logistics may be difficult.

So Ukraine expect a large counter-attack from the south/Odessa. Would it not be a good idea to let those forces in then shut the door behind them? Take the bridge out once they're in place no logistics trail and all those tanks/men become useless very quickly.

peter we 2nd Oct 2022 05:50


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306338)

120 tanks?
I count 24?

MPN11 2nd Oct 2022 07:49


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11306516)
120 tanks?
I count 24?

A lot of people count APCs as tanks ... because they have no grasp of military detail.

Beamr 2nd Oct 2022 09:11


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11306516)
120 tanks?
I count 24?

TBH I can't see even 24 tanks there. First two look a lot like Strela-10 SAM's, third a MT-LB with probably a ZU23-2 AA-gun mounted on top, then 10ish BMP IFVs following another 10ish MBT's (hard to tell from poor quality video but T72 or T80) and the rest as far as that video and eye can see are KAMAZ and ZIL trucks.
There is roughly half a mechanized BTG worth of fighting vehicles there that can be seen.

Xeptu 2nd Oct 2022 10:24

let all that military equipment in, they don't have anyone to operate them, once in can't be used anywhere else and they don't get them back. We need to leave the bridge up for the time being, so that the russians can run away.lol

MikeSnow 2nd Oct 2022 11:29


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306338)

The problem is that the bridge is about 250km from Ukrainian controlled territory. Not sure Ukraine has anything that could hit it from that range. I'm guessing not, otherwise they would have hit it already. Ukraine has asked for ATACMS, which would have the range, but as far as I know the US has refused so far.

Geriaviator 2nd Oct 2022 11:29


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11306662)
let all that military equipment in, they don't have anyone to operate them, once in can't be used anywhere else and they don't get them back. We need to leave the bridge up for the time being, so that the russians can run away.lol

One must admire the tactics and planning of the Ukrainians as well as their bravery. I think they know exactly what they're doing in letting the bridge remain but keep their plans to themselves -- including security in the field. No flocks of hand-flapping reporters breathlessly announcing latest moves and speculating what will happen next, much of what we know comes from fighters on both sides using social media which they really shouldn't. Best for the Russians to receive one unpleasant surprise after another.

ORAC 2nd Oct 2022 11:44

Russians reporting UKR breakthrough on the Kherson front.


NutLoose 2nd Oct 2022 11:49

They appear to be at a loss why Lyman fell



fdr 2nd Oct 2022 12:04


Originally Posted by MikeSnow (Post 11306687)
The problem is that the bridge is about 250km from Ukrainian controlled territory. Not sure Ukraine has anything that could hit it from that range. I'm guessing not, otherwise they would have hit it already. Ukraine has asked for ATACMS, which would have the range, but as far as I know the US has refused so far.


hmmm. how do you get a 70km missile to hit a target 250km away????
Rubik's cube is more difficult. Apollo 13 CO2 scrubbers was more demanding....

Beamr 2nd Oct 2022 12:34


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11306709)
hmmm. how do you get a 70km missile to hit a target 250km away????
Rubik's cube is more difficult. Apollo 13 CO2 scrubbers was more demanding....

Doesn't the MGM-140 ATACMS have a range of 300km? Ukrane currently has the low range goods up to 80km.

NutLoose 2nd Oct 2022 12:42

Up **** creek without a paddle comes to mind


Wokkafans 2nd Oct 2022 13:06

Multiple angle perspective from Ukrainian POV of the recent tank battle in the vicinity of Yehorivka,.

A Ukrainian tank is destroyed by Russian tank fire, after which the multiple Russian armored vehicles retreat. During the process a Russian BMP3 is hit by a Ukrainian anti-tank crew.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3


Wokkafans 2nd Oct 2022 16:23


rattman 2nd Oct 2022 19:43

War criminal strelkov and Rybar are reporting "claim Ukraine is pushing 4-5 mechanized and a "full" tank battalion into the push to exploit the breakthrough. Also claim the Russians are attempting to form a new defensive line at Dudchany)'

Ninthace 2nd Oct 2022 20:07


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11306896)
War criminal strelkov and Rybar are reporting "claim Ukraine is pushing 4-5 mechanized and a "full" tank battalion into the push to exploit the breakthrough. Also claim the Russians are attempting to form a new defensive line at Dudchany)'

Also here

albatross 2nd Oct 2022 20:59

Putrid reminds me of the school bully when his victim finally fights back and kicks him in the crotch then beats him to the ground.
At first the bully screams “I’ll kill you” so the victim decides to render the SOB incapable of offensive action by dislocation of his shoulder, breaking his nose and delivering a swift kick to the kneecap. ( there are no rules in a real fight ) Then the bully starts crying “ I was only joking” and complains to the school authorities that he was viciously attacked for no reason.

Wokkafans 2nd Oct 2022 21:29





ORAC 2nd Oct 2022 22:33

A few days ago, I posted a list of items that newly mobilised Russian troops are being told they need to buy for themselves (including "optional" bulletproof vests and helmets). I commented: "The sellers are going to be gouging the buyers for every ruble they can get." Well:

With thanks to @JayinKyiv for posting it, here's a list of what newly mobilised Russian soldiers are reportedly being told to provide for themselves (they or their relatives have to buy this all of this - good luck when 300,000 others want it too).…
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a7178109e.jpeg

rattman 3rd Oct 2022 04:01


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11306964)
With thanks to @JayinKyiv for posting it, here's a list of what newly mobilised Russian soldiers are reportedly being told to provide for themselves (they or their relatives have to buy this all of this - good luck when 300,000 others want it too).…

To lazy to google lens it, but apparently the top one is just carrier, bottom one is carrier and plates. Still ****ty that you have buy your own stuff


I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small

fdr 3rd Oct 2022 05:37


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11307017)
I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...67002726301696

Lithgow-Thales meets the capabilities of Massey-Ferguson! :}

The Aussie MRAP is a substantial chunk of metal, reminiscent of a P-47, where the pilot could run around inside dodging flak.


Beamr 3rd Oct 2022 06:10


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11307017)
I spent a lot of time around Bushmasters and yeah you always used to think hey this is a decent sized thing. So the first thing I though when I saw this was holy cow are BTR's small

The reason is that the whole design concept is different. When the soviet era vehicles were designed the main deal was to make the cross section on everything as small as possible to decrease the targeting area, i.e. make it as low as possible to make it more difficult to be hit by the opponent. Therefore eg T64-T90 MBT's have the automated loader to remove the need for a loader (only 3 crew making required space smaller) and the carousel underneath the turret that causes such spectacular turret tossing performances. The same applies to IFV's, they were made very low compared to their western counterparts.
If a T72 and a Leo2 are side-by-side, standing on LEO you really are looking down to the T72. Same applies to that BTR-80 compared to eg Finnish PASI.

In todays battle field with modern top attacking ATGMs the soviet design philosophy has lost its relevance as the top is so vulnerable in all of those vehicles. If you like, the russian forces have a huge amount of vehicles but all of them are of obsolete design. They do move in different directions and go bang, killing civilians very effectively, but have a hard time when opposed by modern weapons. A bit like the Mosin-Nagant.

Things are going to get even more difficult for russkies, we are probably going to be in the situation in the very near future where the mech BTG's don't have modern sights and radios are of a vintage 70's type as the Russians have no means to modernize the vehicles they take out of storage. They've been there since the Soviet collapse, being cannibalised and parts being even sold to make a few rubles. While they should've modernized those 12000 MBT's they drank a lot of vodka on private yachts in the Mediterranean. The renewal capacity of Russia on MBT's pre-war was estimated at 100-200 units annually but now they don't have the parts, the men or the time to modernize anything. They didn't do it properly and all the modernized kit was already delivered to BTG's for training purposes. Those were the ones sent to Ukraine 24th Feb and have been very much annihilated in the war already. Where does this lead to?The upcoming mobiks don't have sufficient (or any, apparently) training and the vehicles they get really are from the 70s including comms, sights etc.... I'd hate to be a Russian mobik. No wonder those guys are running for the border and jumping on each others ankles.

At the same time Ukraine did modernize their T64's very extensively throughout the last 30 years. It still has the main issue with the autoloader, but they have brought just about everything else to the 21st century. A direct hit makes it a toaster but otherwise those are much more capable and especially much more joint operation capable than their Russian counterparts.

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 07:49

First Ukrainian units have reached Chkalove. If they break those lines they can roam behind the main defense lines in the North and disrupt the Russian positions in Davydiv Brid and the newly established defensive at Dudchany.


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a383eea21.jpeg

fdr 3rd Oct 2022 09:04


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11307093)
First Ukrainian units have reached Chkalove. If they break those lines they can roam behind the main defense lines in the North and disrupt the Russian positions in Davydiv Brid and the newly established defensive at Dudchany.

Not sure, but it appears that the drive towards Chkalove is pushing against the 11th Separate [air] Assault Brigade, from the VDV. If that is the case, they may get some good repossession of Ukrainian territory. The 11th reportedly lost their deputy Lt Col Glebov, on 7 Mar @ Kharkiv, (probably misreported... their CO since 2020 has been Colonel Denis Nikolayevich Shishov) but their HQ was hit. By July they had lost half of their establishment according to Russian sources, 18 July, 78 of the force refused to fight. reportedly 8 of the refuzniks were split up and sent off to other sections, and came back wanting to go out with machine guns on their motorcycles (more voltage, Igor? Good CRM Skipper!). On 26 July, their HQ was hit by Ukraine. Again. Just outside of Kharkiv. Again.

So they are a fine force of well trained, rested, supplied, motivated, heros of the soviet union, bunch, or not.

On aviation themes, as part of the VDV, their parachutes will help keep them warm in winter, (warmer than the new recruits on the ground outside of VDV bases in Omsk and the subtropical paradise of Norilsk etc. (sub-arctic? 300km north of the arctic circle?-1C at the start of October... ). These troops should be in fine form. Portends a lot of A&E visits with broken ankles.

dead_pan 3rd Oct 2022 09:19

Those Russians in the line between the two incursions must be getting twitchy at the thought of those Ukrainian forces rampaging along their flanks - there are rumours on Twitter of a wider collapse in this area and also to the east of Lyman, both as yet unconfirmed. It does make one wonder if Russia is capable of defending in depth, and manouevring against the Ukes.

I wonder, did Putin really think his declaration on Friday would mean "mission accomplished"? As the adage goes, your opponent always has a say in proceedings.

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 09:44

Developing!

I was reading this morning that civilians were leaving Lysychansk this morning. Now, it is starting to make sense. Ukrainian forces have broken Russian lines at the administrative border to Luhansk and are close to the city perimeter.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....dc1ac84ad.jpeg

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 09:48

Putin's spox admits the Kremlin doesn't actually know how much of Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions it is annexing as Ukraine's forces continue to win back new "Russian" territory. Dmitry Peskov says Russia will "continue to consult with the population."

Russia: these are the new borders of the state, any attack on them will be treated as attack on sovereign Russia

Also Russia: we don't actually know what our new borders now are…..

fdr 3rd Oct 2022 10:44


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11307155)
Putin's spox admits the Kremlin doesn't actually know how much of Kherson and Zaporizhzia regions it is annexing as Ukraine's forces continue to win back new "Russian" territory. Dmitry Peskov says Russia will "continue to consult with the population."

Russia: these are the new borders of the state, any attack on them will be treated as attack on sovereign Russia

Also Russia: we don't actually know what our new borders now are…..

The Russians border is a few miles to the west of Rostov on Don... and east of the Sea of Azov. everything else is Ukrainian

Imagegear 3rd Oct 2022 11:01

The boot is on the other foot now, after Russia is pushed out of the occupied territories, they can spout about Ukraine being the occupiers. However, I don't think they will get any sympathy except from a few other paranoid dictators.

IG



ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 14:54

Belarusian guest thought that he was sitting at the table with his peers and was awfully surprised to find out that he was merely one of the items on the menu….


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1b771857c.jpeg

Wokkafans 3rd Oct 2022 16:09

Gazprom believe they can get Nordstream 2 working.


pasta 3rd Oct 2022 16:37

How convenient that the pipeline they think they can get working is the one that Germany are currently refusing to certify.

Sue Vêtements 3rd Oct 2022 16:44

"Pressure has stabilized" - at the ambient pressure found on the seabed in that part of town

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 17:49

#Ukraine: The UK🇬🇧 supplied Wolfhound TSV is also used as armoured recovery vehicle by the AFU; this time pulling a captured Russian BTR-82A back from the front lines in the South.


Beamr 3rd Oct 2022 18:49

Someone made a pension plan by stealing 1.5 MILLION WINTER UNIFORMS. You really couldn't make this up. It is going to be one cold winter for the russkies, mobik or not.

GREAT! :}




ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 19:03

A Russian attack in Donbas ended in total fiasco. Several MBTs and IFVs were destroyed by Ukrainian ATGM teams. The remnants of the Russian attack forces were fleeing.


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