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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 09:00


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11201767)
I know we periodically moan about the media mis-identifying various kit (e.g. the 'army' Chinooks), but it gets on my t*ts the way they misidentify the munitions being used in this conflict. A few days ago some journo said Lviv was being shelled and today they're talking about rocket fire. They're missiles FFS!

The Mirror keeps referring to the RAF guy on TV discussing the war as a General.

Geriaviator 18th Mar 2022 10:42

JPcont, that's the most interesting article I have seen for years, it answers many questions as to why the Russians are different to the West. Thank you for posting it and good wishes in what must be anxious times for Finland.

The Helpful Stacker 18th Mar 2022 11:58


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11201662)
Are small 'tactical' weapons reliably monitored?
If reports are correct that Russia still has 5000 plus nuclear devices in service, tracking them individually would be a major task. Funding for such an effort seems unlikely to have survived during the past three decades of 'counterinsurgency' focus.

How accurate are those numbers likely to be? Apparently Russia has (or rather, had) approximately 12,400 tanks. Yet we've not only seen Russian forces using some decidedly dated variants but we have also seen overall incredibly poor serviceability of even their more modern vehicles.

MAINJAFAD 18th Mar 2022 12:20


Originally Posted by JPcont (Post 11201756)
If you want to understand some rationality behind irrational Russian actions, this might help.

Thanks for that link, gave reasons for stuff I already had some ideas about, like the strong leader mentality.Of course China works in very much the same way.

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 12:27

Russia's claims to how the destruction is from their point of view..


Demilitarization of Ukraine in numbers * Currently destroyed: - more than 90% of military airports, as well as anti-aircraft missile systems; - 72.4% of the Air Force; - 62.3% of tanks and armored vehicles; - 51.4% and 39.7% artillery and MLRS, respectively.
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....700d68bbae.png




NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 12:35

Remember the impounded AN-124 in Canada, it appears to have a new owner.. :)


An An-124 Ruslan transport aircraft belonging to the Russian cargo airline Volga-Dnepr was arrested in Toronto, Canada - TG-channel Operatyvnyi ZSU https://t.me/ZSUoperativno It will be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to deliver military aid from the US and Canada.


dead_pan 18th Mar 2022 12:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11201854)
Russia's claims to how the destruction is from their point of view..


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....700d68bbae.png

Intriguing - on this basis its almost "job done, back home for tea & medals"?

dead_pan 18th Mar 2022 12:36


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11201856)
Remember the impounded AN124 in Canada, it appears to have a new owner.. :)

Top trolling that!

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 12:47

Hmmmmm


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3f4e9916ec.png

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 12:53

NLAW or Javellin?


trim it out 18th Mar 2022 12:58


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11201868)
NLAW or Javellin?


Top one is NLAW, bottom one isn't a Javelin flight profile so perhaps the Stugna as quoted, although I know nothing about that particular missile.

Ddraig Goch 18th Mar 2022 13:01

I concur with Geriaviator about JPcont, which I thought very revealing. Here's another video about the war and some more background:



NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 13:11


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11201843)
How accurate are those numbers likely to be? Apparently Russia has (or rather, had) approximately 12,400 tanks. Yet we've not only seen Russian forces using some decidedly dated variants but we have also seen overall incredibly poor serviceability of even their more modern vehicles.


It might sound a lot by Russia is 17,125,191 square kilometres in size, so getting armour together and delivered from far reaching areas must be a logistics nightmare, they were talking of a 4 day journey from Siberia to the Ukraine for some of the tank deliveries.
Then you need fuel, spares, ammunition, food etc for those already in country, all needing to be delivered..
If they are requesting ammo and it takes days to arrive, then they are screwed, plus they need trucks etc to deliver it..and even more fuel for them.
It is only recently that Russia started to update their military, unfortunately having the latest tanks etc is a bit pointless if you man it with inexperienced conscripts lead by inept leaders still working to a 1944 doctrine and forced to stick to paved surfaces..

Doors Off 18th Mar 2022 13:44


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11201873)
It might sound a lot by Russia is 17,125,191 square kilometres in size, so getting armour together and delivered from far reaching areas must be a logistics nightmare, they were talking of a 4 day journey from Siberia to the Ukraine for some of the tank deliveries.
Then you need fuel, spares, ammunition, food etc for those already in country, all needing to be delivered..
If they are requesting ammo and it takes days to arrive, then they are screwed, plus they need trucks etc to deliver it..and even more fuel for them.
It is only recently that Russia started to update their military, unfortunately having the latest tanks etc is a bit pointless if you man it with inexperienced conscripts lead by inept leaders still working to a 1944 doctrine and forced to stick to paved surfaces..

Unfettered, that 1944 doctrine would reign supreme. That massive landmass, presents incredible opportunity to continue weapons/munition production. More so than any other country. I’m in no way an Adolf MkII fanboy however, to underestimate that psycho (and his cronies) is a road to guaranteed failure.

Una Due Tfc 18th Mar 2022 13:44


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11201854)
Russia's claims to how the destruction is from their point of view..


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....700d68bbae.png

Even in the extremely unlikely event those figures are even remotely accurate, they won't include anything liberated from the invaders or brought into the country since the start of the conflict.

Ninthace 18th Mar 2022 13:48

Between those and the figures released from Ukraine, they will soon be reduced to throwing rocks and calling each other names.

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 14:36

Out of all of this mess, one company I feel sorry for is Volga-Dnepr, even after the war had started and sanctions were in place they continued with their contract to deliver their "Humanitarian" cargo to a Country that had placed Sanctions on Russia and its aircraft, it could have turned around and headed home.
And lets face it throughout the likes of Afghanistan they provided the West with heavy lift capability

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news/113445


An An-124-100 freighter belonging to Russian cargo specialist Volga-Dnepr Airlines (VI, Ulyanovsk Vostochny), carrying Covid-19 testing kits previously ordered from China by the Canadian government, has been seized at Toronto Pearson Airport amid international sanctions against Russia imposed after its invasion of Ukraine.

RA-82078 (msn 9773054559153) was detained on February 28 after the European Union and Canada - but before the United States - initiated airspace flight bans paralysing the movement of aircraft operated by Russian airlines carrying passengers or cargo.

The Antonov Design Bureau freighter, which had landed at Toronto the previous day via a refuelling stop at Anchorage Ted Stevens, is now stored there, the ch-aviation fleets advanced module shows, and it will remain there for the foreseeable future, according to Omar Alghabra, Canada’s minister of transport.

Volga-Dnepr Airlines, whose subsidiaries include AirBridgeCargo, Atran, and London Stansted-based CargoLogicAir, operates eleven An-124s, three of which are currently active, among its all-owned fleet of sixteen aircraft.

The carrier said in an emailed statement to The Globe and Mail newspaper that it was working towards the “settlement of all formalities to be able to fly to its home base. Volga-Dnepr Airlines operated a series of charters in the interests of the Canadian government delivering vital Covid-19-related products from China.”

Distinctive for its nose-loading cargo bay, the An-124 “Ruslan” entered service in 1986 and fewer than 60 were ever made. Less than half are still in use. Antonov Design Bureau is a state-owned Ukrainian manufacturer. The Ruslan is the second-heaviest freighter in the world after the majestic An-225 “Mriya”. The world’s only An-225 was destroyed in a Russian airstrike on Gostomel airport in the first days of the invasion.
An An-124 Ruslan transport aircraft belonging to the Russian cargo airline Volga-Dnepr was arrested in Toronto, Canada - TG-channel Operatyvnyi ZSU https://t.me/ZSUoperativno It will be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to deliver military aid from the US and Canada.

NutLoose 18th Mar 2022 14:57


Russia is moving military equipment out of South Ossetia. The losses is Ukraine must be significant if they are forced to take such measures.
It sounds like the ideal opportunity for Georgia to regain control of their lost lands. ;)


pulse1 18th Mar 2022 15:23

I must say that, listening to this lady tearing apart Sky News and the Western media in general, made me realise how weak Western politicians have become in the face of media pressure.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3f4e9916ec.png

Jonty 18th Mar 2022 15:38


Originally Posted by pulse1 (Post 11201929)
I must say that, listening to this lady tearing apart Sky News and the Western media in general, made me realise how weak Western politicians have become in the face of media pressure.

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3f4e9916ec.png

yeah, it’s almost like western politicians have electorates to answer to.


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