Fog of War - Clarification needed please
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Please excuse me folks .... If you're going to post casualty or material loss numbers, (regardless of veracity or origin) would you please be kind enough to specify who is claiming what and to whom. It may be clear to anyone in regular media convos, but I invite you to consider those amateurs who dip in and out of this very important and distressing war zone. Many thanks. .... LFH ... |
There was this in Twitter.
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Originally Posted by Lordflasheart
(Post 11203501)
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Please excuse me folks .... If you're going to post casualty or material loss numbers, (regardless of veracity or origin) would you please be kind enough to specify who is claiming what and to whom. It may be clear to anyone in regular media convos, but I invite you to consider those amateurs who dip in and out of this very important and distressing war zone. Many thanks. .... LFH ... The material losses I quoted in red I have put the link in the original first post and quoted post on the update, the site shows all the losses etc and if you click on each one it gives you photo proof of it. This is the link to the “ confirmed losses “ https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html |
Latest Kherson airfield satellite images show it appears to have been abandoned by the Russians.
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Nutty -
Latest Kherson airfield satellite images airsound |
Attrition is hard to account for when communication is lost with entire units.
Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture. |
Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 11203618)
Attrition is hard to account for when communication is lost with entire units.
Losses are a mixture of KIA, WIA, MIA including desertion or units deciding to lie low and surrender / capture. |
Originally Posted by rattman
(Post 11203640)
and add in they might not be counting casualties from DNR/LNR, wagner, chechyans and some are refering the 'army' so other services like VDV, rossgaurdia, SOBR or naval infantry might not be counted
If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
Spoiler
Spoiler
Keeping score is great for games of sport. |
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum? |
Originally Posted by beardy
(Post 11203807)
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum? It would be like the last time - a bunch of chancers , possibly military, backed by outsiders with money and /or arms. After 10 years it drifts back to the status quo - Russian dominated, people with a chip ontheir shoulders and a very big country to plunder |
Originally Posted by beardy
(Post 11203807)
I wonder how long it will be before regimes that rely on the support of Russia and its armed services start to suffer uprisings? Their armed support is probably being siphoned off to bolster the faltering progress against Ukraine and their opposition can see that and may be emboldened enough to take the opportunity to act against perceived vulnerabilities.
Putin may have sown the seeds of the rapid decline of Russian influence. If so what or who would fill the vacuum? The question for me is whether Russia itself will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the federated states are thinking about their options, given the p*ss-poor performance of the country's military. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11203697)
Anything to make the body count metric increase, of course. :p
If I may offer a note of caution: if one focuses on the body count, one may think that by any objective measure one is winning a war, until one finds out that one isn't.
Spoiler
The conflicts end, and its end state, remain in doubt.
Spoiler
This caution, or this lesson (take it as you will) was brought to you by a numbers-focused gent named Robert McNamara, or rather, those who wish that learning from the lessons of history (that his approach resulted in) might be an ongoing proposition. Keeping score is great for games of sport. As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps. |
The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
(Post 11203824)
The indications are that the Russians have realised that a war based on manoeuvre is beyond them and they are settling in for a long slog, which is not good news for anyone. This risks Ukraine being another Afghanistan or Vietnam, a steady drain on manpower and resources with no end state possible.
It may be feasible for them to freeze the conflict in the south given the terrain, but the forested areas of the north present a huge challenge, particularly given the absence of air support and constrained supply routes. |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11203814)
The question for me is whether Russia itself will survive. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the federated states are thinking about their options, given the p*ss-poor performance of the country's military.
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loss clarifications
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Thanks to everyone for the most helpful clarifications on loss figures. LFH. |
Blimey
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11203820)
Whilst shocking by western standards, I doubt if these numbers will give Vlad any sleepless nights. I reckon he'd be willing to sacrifice an order of magnitude more than this to achieve his aims.
As for keeping score, we also seem to be obsessed with pink areas on maps. (My guess would be that if there's a contingency in place, the initial response will be air power based). Not sure how one pressures Belarus to not do that. What leverage does anyone have on them? Caveat: this warning comes from Ukraine sources, and I am not sure how good of a source The New Statesman is for news. |
Belarus joining in? links to troop movements but not verified.
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Oh, perfect. Another lunatic joining in. I suppose it was inevitable, given the general lack of progress by the RU ground forces.
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