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Very interesting, SAM, and I think we're in your area here. The only bit I don't get is if this was a maintenance depot and not a launch site (as it clearly wasn't) why would the be fuelling/defuelling? Testing? Maybe they just don't care how dangerous that is. They're only conscripts.
The article says "Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred." |
Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine? Anyway, I guess they could have been 'mucking about' with hypergolic fuel, so no ignition source needed. They might have chosen to do it indoors at an 'innocent' looking industrial site so sats couldn't get a look at what was going on. |
Looks like all Bets are OFF.
PS. He has obviously never experienced a Gulf thunderstorm! |
I sometimes find this thread hard to follow!
Interesting to go onto Google Earth. About 32.2 miles west of Tehran (261° from the red star that marks Tehran) you will find the Bid Kaneh compound. Good detail on this picture. Now follow the road to the south and you'll find some very interesting stuff in the desert. Fairly obvious what most of it is. To the east of the compound you'll see a road that disappear into the hillside. Plenty of earth covered shelters. No obvious launch site. |
Oh, yes. Earth berms could be launch sites, but no permanent structure.
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SAM
You don't need to lecture to me about the dangers of rocket fuels - I've had to handle in anger anhydrous hydrazine, dimethylhydrazine, hydrogen (and other) peroxides and a range of other nastys. For chemical - not rocketry - use, but the hazards are the same. I still have scars on my hands from Sodium peroxide igniting the safety gloves I was wearing I (and I think we all) know a liquid fuelled rocket is not instantly deployable because of the dangers inherent in the fuel and design. Thats why I said what I did, and why I beleive your comment about fuelling / defuelling inside that shed is nonsense. OK you could do a trial run in there, but the shed looks too low to hold an erect missile and platform. You wouldn't want to fuel it while lying down - the side walls of the rocket would fracture under the weight I rather think that you've misunderstood - possibly deliberately - what I said. |
Apparently I "was" an artificer on the flying Pie oven ( with the greatest and humblest of respect to crew 3 - up the Duck! )
Bwah hah hah, Little does he know about the little that I know - if he knew what I know I'd know a little - I think.... does anyone remember a rank in the RAF engineers of Artificer? Alas I never came across it. Don't zobbin cadets get taught rank structure at Cranditz?? I bet even a senile old fart Like Beagle could remember us Oik's ranks..... Beags - If I don't insult you again a'fore Christmas may I wish you and yours all the blessings of the season. Fly safe CS. And Byeeeee Sam |
cazatou Looks like all Bets are OFF.
BS. Not as far as I am concerned. SAM "I'll bow out now & ask the Mods to remove my ability, please, to post again.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/sr...ies/thumbs.gif" You don't get out of it that easily unless you just want to confirm my (and probably others) suspicions in terms of wriggling out of it. |
SAM
You say "These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing." I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ? I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them. Ungrounded earth cable ? Very specific, too specific but it does follow on from my Static electricity comment. |
I tort I saw a puddy tat, and also that Sam was going.
Attention seeking walting troll - not that I am calling him this you understand, just what I think of him. it's a bit late to talk about closing the thread when you are the one who posted all the naughty gen (what you think you know of it) and then accusing the rest of us of breaking OS, opsec etc. Next you will be opening a thread about mach 7 planes or rail guns or some such.... ta ta CS |
500N points out that SAM said ...
Originally Posted by Sam
"These missiles are extremely unstable due to liquid propellant (I wouldn't go within 1000 metres of one..). They are operated by conscripts under duress, who probably haven't a clue what they are doing."
Originally Posted by 500N
I was always under the impression that the Revolutionary Guard operated an autonomous missile command and the Revolutionary Guard were not a bunch of conscripts ?
ought to look more deeply into who does what in Iran's various military organizations. I also find it hard to believe they would stick conscripts in charge of missiles or anything to do with them. Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such a cock up. Our counterparts in the Iranian Armed Forces, be they regular or Rev Guard, are human, and will be as susceptible to various cock ups as anyone, if not moreso in some of the less professional formations. For all: been very intrigued by the Damage Assessments offered up in the last few pages, tip of the cap to you all. :ok: Good food for thought. |
Lone wolf
"They may be an enemy, but they ain't idiots." Yep, and just like Israel, I wouldn't under estimate them. They are prone to have the balls to do things, just like Saddam. On that subject, Iran seems to have a big disparity between the "conscript type" front line troops used as Inf in the wars ie versus Iraq) and the Revolutionary Guards and what they do / control. Am I mistaken or are their similarities between SAM on this thread and TOURIST on the SARH thread ? Cornish, JUST FOR YOU THIS CHRISTMAS :O I Twaut I Taw a Puddy Tat ! |
Since I was the first to make a bet with SAM that he was full of it, that would make things really confused.....
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I've given the SARH thread a miss.
Perhaps I ought to sample it . :cool: |
Tourist,
I meant the gist of it and the fact you and someone else are disagreeing along similar lines. I know SFA about SAR, only ever jumped out of helos on a rope so can't comment on the tech side of things. Lonewolf Only go in to it occasionally and just did and that's when I saw the similarity. . |
My brother in law spent 2 years as a conscript in the Iranian army and got a) raging ****s from the insanitary conditions in his training camp, b) two changes of clothes per week, c) a tedious 18 posting doing a boring, undemanding admin job in an office (bearing in mind that he had a good engineering degree pre conscription). Most conscripts seem to receive enough training to make themselves suitable to be cannon fodder and once their basic training is over they end up working in offices or guarding museums. I doubt whether the Republican Guard are quite as badly treated or trained though.
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Lonewolf
"Even in professional and generally competent military organizations, cock ups are not that rare. A few years back, the USAF had an incident where incorrectly safed nuc weapons were flown from pt A to pt B, in violation of any number of regs and safeguards. That got a few people fired, a whole lot of press coverage and egg on USAF faces, and a review of "just how we are supposed to handle these very dangerous things" done to find out how to prevent such type of dog up." Some very interesting reports exist for that incident and the follow up, it was more than a "few" that got fired - I think close to 70 people. I think (from memory), even some of the higher ups sent in to clean up the situation got fired as well a short time later for lack of performance in cleaning up the mess. |
Heads needed to roll, and I'm glad more than a few did.
That's the sort of cock up that the system is designed to prevent. |
Re damage assessment, I have now found what I was looking for.
Here is an article where you can download or open a high res photo in Google earth and then look at the photo from near ground level. It is not a true 3D but allows closer inspection of the damage. Iran missile base post-explosion imagery, now hi-res in Google Earth | Ogle Earth The file is under this bit of text in the article Here is the resulting KMZ file Once in google earth, it is evident 1. Some sides of the base, a bit away from the buildings have an earthen berm around as you can see the scrape marks from the bulldozer. 2. You can still see the scorch marks on the earth. I think the explosion was slightly / 1 building down from my original estimate. 3. Those long rectangular items, trucks or the back end of the trucks for carrying missiles, either in a container or on the back in a launcher. 4. Those long blue buildings, certainly long enough to contain a rocket / missile plus room to take the warhead apart - which is what they were said to be doing in one article. 5. The important one. Even though it is not a true 3D image, luckily the photo was taken with the sun at quite a low angle so you can get an idea via the shadows of the building how much of it is standing and to an extent how intact it is (by how sharp the shadow line is). Some of the shadows of the buildings show that the roof structures of them are a tangled mess of metal. Other buildings, such as the one's we all think were at the centre of the explosion create no shadow and so I think no structure to them has been left standing - OR they were bulldozed immediately. The explosion was heard 25kms away. The White smoke certainly went high enough. Your thoughts ? |
looking at the scorching I'd say you have THREE heat sources there
Two buildings, both below the blue one you initially said, but also one on the northeast side of that missing blue building - the road there is scorched / cratered Secondary explosion from a vehicle? What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across PS best way to scale things is from that green hockey pitch top centre (thats real hockey not the icey stuff) |
The clean up they have done makes it very hard to see IMHO.
" the road there is scorched / cratered Secondary explosion from a vehicle?" Agree, I think something was on the road that instantaneously combusted and burnt to the ground. "What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across" I hope I am looking at the same thing as you. The google earth image I gave you has a scale on it so we can now work out the Exact sizes of things. I diagree with what it is. I don't think it is a dry water hole, I look at those often here in Aus, it has too much of a earthen berm around one side. I think it is man made, it looks like a semi circular earthen berm has been made as you can see the scape marks on BOTH sides of the ridge. It has height to it (the berm). Have a look at the scrape marks of the berm round the outside of the facility, you can see the same scrape marks. Their is also another one in an inverted L shape just below it. Here is something else interesting to look at North North West of the compound. Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ? |
SSW of the main compound is a large earth covered structure, to the south of which would appear to be a row of static engine test beds with blast or eflux marks on the ground.
You hardly need to be a rocket scientist to work out what was going on at this site! |
"What I do find interesting is the structure in the desert to the southeast, but still within the outer compound security fence That looks like a filled in impact crater to me. A big one. Might just be a dry water hole, but that doesn't look right. Unfortunately its outside the high-res imagery. But whatever it is, its over 100 yards across" I hope I am looking at the same thing as you. The google earth image I gave you has a scale on it so we can now work out the Exact sizes of things. I diagree with what it is. I don't think it is a dry water hole, I look at those often here in Aus, it has too much of a earthen berm around one side. I think it is man made, it looks like a semi circular earthen berm has been made as you can see the scape marks on BOTH sides of the ridge. It has height to it (the berm). Have a look at the scrape marks of the berm round the outside of the facility, you can see the same scrape marks. Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ? I think perhaps the whole larger area is something of a test area. Interesting parallel lines just outside of the berm to the south, about 20' apart. There's another 'facility' a couple of miles due north, and what could be a military HQ (with a 200'x250' parade ground? - it also generally looks very spick & span so maybe Revolutionary Guard) 2 miles due east. The built up area 4.75 miles 325 degrees from the explosion looks very orderly too, and far bigger than the villages around it. |
Willard
Good pick ups, hadn't looked out that far, Agree with what they are. Ed Agree. It will be interesting to see what, if anything comes out in the future. . |
500N wrote
Here is something else interesting to look at North North West of the compound. Their is a OLD square earthen shape but inside this and off to the east it looks like Bomb Craters. Also some other interesting craters to the NW of it and a line of something to the South of the square earthen shape. I'll defer here to the RAF boys - are these bomb craters ? |
TEEEJ
Interesting point. I agree everything looks quite old. |
I love how we can get to bomb craters via a little untrained photo analysis:D
Those are holes dug down for the irrigation system unless I am very much mistaken. You see them all over Afghanistan as you fly around. I am willing to be proved wrong as I am also totally untrained in photo analysis, but I bet they are "karez" holes |
Certainly is a test area, but for rocket motors rather than warheads. The holes in a line are, as Tourist says, water holes - note the ones that have caved in north of the site. But also look at the blast marks from tied-down rocket motors in the site to the south of the site.
This is rocket city, not warhead testing. That said, the last page or two has seen some really good analays. Well done you guys. Keep it coming. :ok: |
Tourist,
Thank you - knowledge of LOCAL customs and structures is an enormous help and that's what was missing in making a correct analysis. To me they looked like the holes I've blown in the ground using ANFO hence my question of "are they bomb craters" as I couldn't see them being that. I did a quick look up of Karez holes. A couple of nice pictures here that to the untrained eye is deceiving. Hitch on Heroin, and Other Perspectives Karez water system in the Turpan Depression in China - 42-24355457 - Rights Managed - Stock Photo - Corbis I think most of us are "untrained in photo analysis" unless someone here used to do it in the RAF and is willing to chime in. I only ever looked at structures in aerial photos before it was "exercise raided". Edit Tourist By the way, "bet" is a dangerous word to use around here:O |
As you will see from post 4 (though actually #2 due to tPprune temporal shiftage) of this thread, I have no concerns about betting.
The trick, I always find, is to be correct.:) |
Tourist,
My apologise, I had forgotten it was you who originally called out SAM and I followed your lead. Only 11 more days to go. . |
The holes in line are probably what are known as quanats in Iran - a system of culverts with a hole to the surface at regular intervals.There are many of these in the Karaj area - I used to fly r/c models near Karaj in the 1970's
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New development:
Breaking News - Iran: US Drone Shot Down in East, State TV Reports | World News | Sky News I bet SAM will tell us that it was actually a B2 |
Iran TV: US Spy Drone Shot Down By Military
http://www.defenceaviation.com/wp-co.../12/rq-160.jpg Iran's military has shot down an unmanned US aircraft over the east of the country, state TV has reported. "Iran's military has downed an intruding RQ-170 American drone in eastern Iran," Iran's Arabic-language Al Alam state television network quoted an unnamed military source as saying. A report on English-language Press TV said the drone was "downed with minimum damage" and seized by Iranian officials close to the border with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unmanned stealth aircraft used for reconnaissance. It is not designed to carry weapons. The semi-official Fars news agency, which is believed to be close to the Revolutionary Guard military force, said Iran would respond to the violation of its airspace with actions beyond its own borders.......... |
bit of a windfall for the Chinese then
I assume the technology transfer works both ways... |
Ooh. "Outside their borders". Get SAM back here pronto. I wonder where that will be?
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The image that the Iranian news agency is using is a Dassault AVE drone.
http://www.defenceaviation.com/wp-co.../12/rq-160.jpg http://www.dassault-aviation.com/en/...drone.html?L=1 Dassault image link http://www.dassault-aviation.com/fil...AVEC_3163r.JPG RQ-170 Sentinel http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/3474/bigbeast.jpg http://defenseindex.com/wp-content/u.../RQ-170_41.jpg http://defenseindex.com/wp-content/u...ahar_taxi1.jpg |
Well spotted, Dude. I have to admit, I didn't even look at the pictures. Must pay more attention to detail. Hang on, my flight commander used to say that to me years ago. Should have listened.
So, do you think they're making it all up as they go along? |
Its probably just a mistake by a sub-editor on the news report
Tehran Times is now also reporting it, but with a correct (stock) photo Iran shoots down U.S. spy drone: reports - Tehran Times They add the comment "The cyber warfare unit managed to take over controls of the drone and bring it down, a military official said, according to the TV." Notice they are being very careful to indirectly quote the military and so hedge around the issue of truth |
Mach Two wrote
So, do you think they're making it all up as they go along? (Reuters) - A surveillance drone flying over western Afghanistan had gone out of control late last week and may be the one Iran said it had shot down over its own airspace, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said on Sunday. "The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a U.S. unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status," an ISAF statement said. The statement about the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) was issued in Kabul and released to reporters covering an international conference on Afghanistan in the German city Bonn. ISAF says drone lost over Afghanistan late last week | Reuters |
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