About 15 hours to the first tremors....but probably not induced by a big bomb. I'm almost tempted to stay up late tonight, maybe.

Mister B

HTB

I wouldn't stay up, fate has it that I have to go out so I'll be back a bit after 0200 Z.

Probably best to wait 'till the next day LOL:O

It would be like staying up for Christmas when you know it's not going to happen.

Courtney
Agree, but he's not going to get off that lightly:O

Too right, Mate!

What's that noise I just heard??









http://playstationeu.i.lithium.com/t...v=mpbl-1&px=-1

I thought it was about to kick off last night. I was in the garden having a smoke when I saw two trails of light accross the sky.

Turned out they weren't MIRVs* from a Shahab 6 but a couple of shooting stars.

*actually, it supposedly has a single warhead, before the pedants leap on me.

You'r a bit previous SAM lad, unless I misunderstood, the deadline was 2359Z today.

While we're watching and waiting, would you fancy setting another deadline for a further little wager? How long is "several weeks"?

Mister B

Well Done Sam and try not to bite at any more hooks that might be cast in your direction.

I am here to read the excellent posts on the numerous threads on this forum and it does sadden me to see folks that perhaps cross that line between banter and insults.

We are all individuals with the right to express an opinion, if we disagree with what is said then fine, if we can add humour to our posts that might disagree with what is being said then so much the better, but why hurl insults at those that show a passion in what they belief? Sea Harriers dropping nuclear fifteen ton bombs on Tehran may happen or it may not... :ouch::ouch::ouch::ouch::O

My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

If in the next eight weeks we have a nuclear weapon used in the Middle East then I will match the sum you were cajoled in paying out to the exact same charity.

Have a nice Christmas and keep your tackle out of the water! ;)

GloJo,

I take your points re banter/insults. I think a few people have become really frustrated by a number of 90 degree changes of direction and not having points answered/acknowledged/read. But your point is a good one.

Re your: My thoughts are that any nation that is insane enough to use a nuclear weapon of any size will hopefully be immediately ostracised by the rest of the World!

A good idea. I think the threat of not talking to a nation and sending them to Coventry will be a lot cheaper that having to go through all that tedious nuclear deterence and military reprisals!!! :E

glojo

SAM is, as far as I am aware, the first Ppruner to blame the President of the United States for the Ppruner's incorrect assessment.

Okay fair cop... Send them to Birmingham or perish the thought.... Cornwall :) :)

I totally accept the very valid point regarding those 90 degree turns but I guess these hand-brake turns are all done to test the patience of those folks who are better informed ;);)

Glojo,

I think you're right. Also, as I have said before, the bold predictions have made for a very entertaining thread.

Caz,

Yes, that's another first and I shall have a word with Obama. :)

Glojo - you are treading on thin ice -

We don't want your rejects especially if they turn out to be Sam,

The only part of that post that makes any sense is the IAF abilit to fly through Iraqi airspace with relative impunity once the USAF withdraws from its control of Iraqi air space.

Not sure what US and Iraqi accords has been agreed regarding sharing info on airspace monitoring.

I am not party to the signed agreement, nor the details staffed out, but I have my doubts that, since a few thousand "advisors" remain to "help" in a diplomatic role, the airspace monitoring functions will go completely black.

That said, the IAF can probably blaze through Iraqi airspace if they'd like to, in January. That does not mean they will.

The rest of your estimation doesn't fit very well, however ...

lonewolf

I wonder if there is some agreement for the US to hold a Q from Kuwait and Turkey over Iraqi airspace, al la the old Northern/Southern Watch, until Iraq gets it's F-16's? The irony is that back in the day, the CAP's were to stop whatever that was in Iraq, getting out, whereas now it would be the other way round :\

A thought - what about a pre-emptive by Iran on Isreal? :eek:

I don't know about when or what might happen, SAM, but they are probably under pressure to consider doing something. However, Obama was never one to take the US into any more ops/conflicts if he could possibly avoid it. He did not want to lead in Libya and is really keen to get out of Iraq a.s.a.p. He wants a clean slate before the next election because he still thinks he's in with a chance.

I think I can understand that Saudi spend billions in defence without using it aggresively whilst following their version of fundamental Islam. Two different things. That doesn't make them weird, it's just the way they are.

So do you think the 15 ton big blus are out of the picture now?

Courtney

glojo

Good post, points taken in.

I have no problem with differing view points but when someone shouts a very "left field" position, then goes from one extreme to the other, at the same time contradicting themselves every few posts, without reading or answering anyone's questions asking him to justify what he said, then I would say at some point someone will challenge you to stand by your convictions. Especially when almost speaking on or setting US Gov't policy.

I did become a bit belligerent, fair cop, but it achieved the objective.

I queried you on the Pearl Harbour thread, you answered every question, in detail and with a well structured post.

SAM

"Sadly that can only be the use of tactical small yeild nuclear bombs to destroy underground facilities.

We shall see very shortly.:ugh:"


Care for another, double or nothing ?:O

Wasn't the 15 ton Big Blu specifically designed for use on "underground facilities" because no other current bomb could penetrate far enough in to be certain of destroying them ?

Why would they now switch to "tactical small yield nuclear bombs" apart from denying an area due to nuclear fall out ?

Good points 500N. Residual rad would deny the area for (effectively) ever. Plus, so would a "bunker buster". Remember that Chernobyl and Fukushima weren't nuclear explosions, just explosions that threw a lot of nuclear material out of its hole. So the 15 Ton Big BLU in the right place would (potentially) have the same effect. But only on the sites that held significant nuclear inventory.

Like you, I ask if the Big BLU is now out of the frame?

Courtney

Courtney

At 200 feet down, massive explosion creating an earthquake effect,
how much really does rise up out of the ground or does the majority
just collapse and fall in a heap - or hole as the case maybe (refer the holes / depressions left after huge underground (nuclear) explosions).


Either way, considering he bet money on it, a very quick change of tactical tune.

Very quick indeed, Mate.

Yeah, that deep would make a difference, I guess. Not sure how deep these things a burried. Either way, once the stuff is out of it nice, cozy protective containment and in the ground, no one's about to go and dig it up or mess with the site!

Courtney

Not sure how a military person can not understand 2359Z but then again ......

Anyway SAM, still 1 hour 20 to go, the planes could be in the air, transiting Iraq as we speak, just about to head across the water for a TOT just before the deadline. And from the posts on here about fly pasts / the pilots take great pride in getting the TOT correct to the second, so you never know.


.

I have the beer in and am tuned to CNN.

I believe.

I don't (believe), but was hoping for another Shock and Awe campaign like the GW, then sit back and watch the president go off his rocker on TV.

.

Released 2359 Z 15th Dec 2011

The Security Agencies of the United States of America strongly refute rumours that we have deployed any air delivered weapons against the Islamic Republic of Iran. There has clearly been no evidence of any such action despite speculation to the contrary, including significant earthquakes as reported by jamesdevice and Lyneham Lad, much to the annoyance of HTB who didn’t want to encourage SAM.

The US Gov't would also like to deny rumours that it has dropped any Big Blu's on Iran (or any other country for that matter), except for testing in Area 51, or was that Area 53.1 ?

Our intelligence agencies have been following certain organizations with regard to specific speculation and disclosure of privileged information, some of which has been traced to a small number of unstable individuals in the United Kingdom. We can assure our allies that steps are being taken to track down and eliminate these rogue elements, more often than not junior officers with visions of grandeur.

One aviation related website has been the subject of close scrutiny in recent weeks and we are close to identifying one key individual that will be apprehended, with the cooperation of our UK allies. It is safe to identify the PPRuNe espionage organisation, believed to harbour a particular, subversive and dangerous individual using the undercover codename SAMXXV. This agent is wanted in connection with our investigations. He or she is believed to be mentally unstable, unable or more likely unwilling to read other people’s writing, reportedly escaped from a secure facility and is a serious threat to the national security of the United States and the United Kingdom.

In addition, even though we acknowledge the power of PPRuNe forums as a centre of excellence by mostly ancient person's in Blasers and ties, with the odd mad person thrown in, the US Government runs State Department Policy and all military decisions, not some mad junior ops officer called SAM.

So, how to collect the payment from SAM ?

We were going to send a SAR cab over to collect the payment from SAM, however their seems to be some dispute as to whether the RN or Civvy SAR are actually capable of achieving the desired result of being able to hover in one place while the untrained winch man lowers the bucket. That’s if Tourist doesn’t nail you first ! We could always use [email protected], but not sure he’d get past the interview with SARowl on the interview panel. Can you imagine Crab and Tourist as Pilot and Co-Pilot ?

Alternatively, we could have sent over a DRONE, however their was some dispute over whether flying pay should be forthcoming. But then some US Government official blabbed too much at a press conference and a spotty faced teenager decided to hack into the DRONE and bring it down.
If only it had a pilot in it, oooopppss, forgot, just to keep Mach Two happy, it’s an "Unmanned Air Vehicle" or whatever acronym the drone people come up with every few weeks. Yep, it’s unmanned yet they still get flying pay and wear green overalls !

Thought of using a Typhoon but we then had a problem with the spare parts supply for the current Typhoons, the result being the majority of the fleet were grounded and what was left was on CAP over the UK.

That left us with possibly using our 3rd and 4th Gen aircraft, however regardless of what Tourist says, we were worried that all of our 3rd and 4th Gen aircraft might be susceptible to 1st gen bullets so decided to leave them in the hangar. At the suggestion of various posters, the RAF might be dropping Her Majesty’s finest beer kegs in the future, that is if they haven’t already been jettisoned by the likes of Bo Nalls, just another jocky and probably a few others over the sands of the Middle East. On the other hand, let’s hope it’s not jamesdevice piloting the FJ as we don’t think his bomb accuracy would be that good based on how he drops posts about beer in the wrong thread !:O

We didn’t have any 1st gen aircraft so alisoncc and Mach Two tried to find some Titanium ingots but to no avail, the result being that Mach Two started building a jet engine out of baked beans and beer cans. If only he had manufactured it using BRISTOL’s methods instead of Rolls Royce’s, he might have succeeded.

If only we had been quicker, we could have grabbed one of the Aussie F111’s before they were buried or even better, one of the Harriers. Although that is a bit of a bonkers idea, at least we would have had enough for a 4-ship formation. Sharkey Ward would approve.

Then one of the team was invited to an afternoon bash at the local big wigs house in his new village and asked the question about what he should wear and what he should take which distracted us all. This totally distracted the subversives on PPRuNe who were like a load of old ladies having a mother’s meeting, the answer(s) took many pages, which was superb comedy but distracted from the task at hand.

Then a few members PVR’d which left us short of pilots. Not to worry, plenty of snotty nosed junior pilots still wet behind the ears available according to SAM, even though they didn’t measure up to the experience criteria as laid in public for all to see, we’ll still give them a multi million dollar aircraft that is hard to fly and even harder to land. Sorry, forgot, it’s easy to land, just drop the wing tips onto roof of the chase cars and everything will be fine. Mmmmmm, that’s interesting, why is their a video showing multiple crashes, skids and U turns of U2’s on landing. The video must be a fake, SAM’s always right, even if he does get his dates mixed up and is 10 years behind the times.

Even so, for all those who have partaken in the whole event, their might even be a Queens Medal in it for you, that is if everyone can agree on the stuffed up criteria for who gets it.

So, in view of all of the above, AND to keep SAM happy, we will now be relieving one of the U2 chase cars from holding up the U2 wings on landing to drive and pick up the winning bet from SAM. In deference to past heroes and videos, we will be using the call sign “Green Leader” and the co pilot “Flaps 50”. Ksimboy, I know it’s the parachute that is supposed to flap in the wind, but you don’t need a parachute with flaps like the one's shown in THAT video.:O

I will be off for a few weeks to the very hot and very wet “Never Never” climes in Crocodile Dundee country of Northern Australia where we have found the best respite from the heat and humidity is copious amounts of G&T. Of course delivered by pulling the 4 levers on the overhead console of the Herc, if they are actually there. And if the US or Israel do drop Big Blu while I am away, I won’t know about it for a few days at least.

And for all those that have been partaking in some superb and funny discussions on PPRuNE over the last year, even if we couldn’t make a video like HMS Ocean, put on your Tin Foil hats to protect yourself from SAM and I hope you and your family have a very Merry Xmas and a Happy and Prosperous New Year from the odd one out on this forum being ex Green (SAM, please note, it is Green not Brown).

As you can see from the above, thank you for a year of fun and more importantly, for putting up with me:O

500N
ABSOLUTE CLASSIC and very well researched.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Happy Christmas 500N.

That was a top effort !:D

BZ!:D

Mister B

500N,

Absolutely outstanding, Mate! A lot of work must have gone into that. And congrats on the bet. It's made an already fantastic day even better.

A very Merry Christmas to you and yours.

Courtney

SAM,

I think that makes a lot of sense. Obama's election bid may well have left Israel out in the cold. With friends like the US President, who needs enemies like Iran? None of those options looks very inviting to me.

Is SAM suppression something to do with keeping you under control?? ;)

Merry Christmas.

I was a bit upset until I read this bit...

I got a mention after all.

"...but appears to have been dropped for the last 6 years. Why?"

Jon Nichol still appears on the occassoional debate on Radio 2 and 4, but not so much elsewhere. I think he was wheeled out during Libya. Remember that John Peters co-wrote Tornado Down with Jon Nichol.

The "SAM suppression" was supposed to be a joke, BTW.

Courtney

SAM

Who's this Nicholson bloke - American actor? And I think you mean 'innumerable', not 'innumerate' - most of are capable of counting and doing a little arithmetic.

Probably best that you retire gracfully (or otherwise) from enlightenend debate, especially if your humour detection feelers are inoperative.

Why is JN not heard and seen on the media so much - well, I guess one's value as a 'military expert' has a shelf life that diminishes with time elapsed from the experience that gave you such expertise.

Goodbye, I would like to say what a pleasure it has been exchanging views with you, but...

Mister B

Damn! Just missed it. Was hoping to be back in time for H Hour.

Nice post 500N. The tin can engines are coming along just fine.

SAM, looks like you paid up early. Nice one.

SAM suppression? Worth a try!

M2


P.S. Courtney, I hear you're a grandad! Congrats, Mate!

Welcome back M2. Thank you. Three new scenarios there for your book!

Just looking at the bigger picture, maybe a US/Israeli attack on Irans nuclear installations will happen once all US troops are out of Iraq.

Obama need the Jewish vote to realise any chance of a second term in office.

Picking on SAM again? Sounds like weasel words

- it's Ok, no HARM done

Thanks. Hope I didn't offend anyone.

Welcome back M2, good to see you returned safely.

Courtney, congratulations on becoming a Grandad to an Aussie :D

SAM, all good :ok:


As someone else said, Obama needs the Jewish vote but it might not extend to helping Israel attack so they like you say, they might be doing it by themselves.

The Political landscape in the US is not going to help in the near future.
.