Looking at the damage, assuming all of which was the result of the 'event' and not subsequent clean-up ops, it must have been a bloody big bang.

If it was a Shahab 3, a liquid single stage missile, then either the launch pad was reasonably close to the buildings or they were shifting it fully fueled. Neither strikes me as particularly sensible.

MissileThreat :: Shahab 3 variants

Willard. Concur.

Dec 21st 2012 rang a bell. I amuse* myself by looking at end of the word/conspiracy theory/fake moon landing/etc. bullsh1t in my spare time.

*by which I mean I find it hilarious.

Willard
This comment is interesting from the same page as the photos of the damage.

"Iran was apparently performing a volatile procedure involving a missile engine at the site when the blast occurred."

Along the lines of
"Messy safety procedures and / or trying to do some things too fast
and cutting corners, causing fatal safety mistakes"


Re the "then either the launch pad was reasonably close to the buildings"
I would be surprised if they made that mistake. Having been to Woomera Rocket range, the closest building to the launch sites was quite some distance away, far enough not to be affected by an explosion on the launch pad.

Yeah I read the bit about an engine test.

It all seems rather odd. I'd think it obvious to "perform a volatile procedure" away from non-hardened buildings. If it was sloppy procedures then they didn't learn from the numerous launch pad events on either side of the iron curtain during the cold war - and a few since then.

Even in this Atlas explosion the blast seems reasonably localised.


It could have been a test of the mooted larger Shahab 4,5 or 6 but the same lessons would hold true, unless they seriously miscalculated the potential blast.

Most explosions and danger areas can be calculated.

What can't be is the distance and direction of shrapnel but shrapnel didn't do the damage.


The Main building at Woomera, I think it was called EC6 had really thick concrete walls and smallish windows and that was some distance from the pad.

Is it just me or is this pretty clear that Israel are already undertaking direct action?

They might not need airstrikes if they have effective ways of achieving their objectives on the ground within Iran.

Makes me think of the film "Munich".

This reminds me of the sudden destruction of a building in Syria sometime ago, reputedly involved in WMD of some form. One day it was there, next day it was gone. Nobody claimed any responsibility, area covered with soil and sand in very short order.

Whose to say same people are not responsible, and I don't mean the Syrians?

Regards

Air pig

going back to the original post
 

One wonders why the USA has spent some $169 million on producing only 8 of these enormous "bunker busting - to 200 metre underground" bombs.

Could it perchance be that they are going to be given to Israel to use in the next few weeks on Iranian nuclear facilities?


Could it be to deal with those hidden chinese submarine bases I recall seeing photos of last year?????

or is this too obvious?

WW

I heard Sir Willard White (different sp to protect the innocent?) being interviewed on the radio a week or so ago - I think about his participoation on Desert Island Discs. He sounds like a big black man (actually, he is - a bass-baritone opera singer); is this your alter ego, and if so did you know SAM from a previous encounter...?

I too am confused about SAM boy's service history - he hinted that he was army (the green beret connection); has said he was on a Bloodhound squadron in Germany (when they had relocated to UK); served at Bruggen and Laarbruch (the latter where I was stationed from early 1984 for 8 years and have no recollection of anyone fitting his profile); at Laarbruch one his ROs was the Staish (unusual, normally flt cdr and sqn/wg cdr get to deliver the home truths)...bovvered? Nah; just curious.

500N

Definitely 15 December for this 15 ton Big BLU to be air delivered by Israel or US (I think your money is safe, and he doesn't seem willing to take mine:{).

And he didn't reveal his source of intel for SSBN location.

Mister B

HTB

It was me who has the Green Beret connection - that is unless you are referring to his come back comment about "Brown" something or other - which I did not understand so if someone could explain what he meant, that would be good.
Unless he meant he was "Sandy beret" but I very much doubt it.

You never know, maybe SAM was the 2nd person on the first floor Balcony ?:O

Yes, I think you are right but at least a charity will benefit one way or the other.


SAM
Not sure how they did it in the RAF but I would have loved to have listened in on an Orders Group of yours (if you ever gave any that is). I reckon your plan of attack would have been like going in circles you change direction / thoughts so many times.

.

500N

Yes, I think that reference was confusing me, which I then conflated with your green beret reference. Still can't piece together his RAFG time, which is probably no bad thing, as I might not have been his bestest pal at Laarbruch.

Seems his lack of interweb connection is keeping him mute at the moment, or did he say he had a poxy connection? Maybe he's being......interviewd about his secret knowledge of multi-national SSBN activities. I suspect, though, that his medication might have finally kicked in and he's lying down in a comfortable darkened room listening to distant soothing voices...:E

Mister B

Willard check your PM's:ok:

Sam is not a Walt, he is, IMHO, the Uber Walt.

I am assuming we will be seeing this plot in the next Tom Clancy novel - he has just been using us as the focus group to tidy up any plot ends.

Question for Sam - why does your "time" in a blue ish suit not gel at all with the facts of this world. I can accept the odd recollection being a bit vague on dates but if ast the saying goes "it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck and looks like a duck then it is probably not a fish in a duck suit" and your statements about who where when just don't ring true.

I mean, come on Sam, if you did all you said and been all you have been then you should be able to tell us a bit more than wikkidpeenoya - without breaking the OS, opsec or decent practice....

Or are you going to tell us all about where the "undisclosed" vaults are?
OOh look, a black car, a skoda you say, handcuffs and a black bag you say.

SAM

I was neither a met man nor civil service; I know wg cdr Wilby, but not by the sobriquet that you use (and you've been told before about naming names and uncomplimentary observations and comments, so desist:=).

My allegiance and friendship was with the squadrons on which I served, and to the other operational squadrons - including the Rocks - so it is unlikely that I would have noticed you as you were a lowly ops officer. Anyway, I didn't mix with naughty boys socially and had very few reasons to go anywhere near ops wg.

Mister B

cornish-stormrider

Agree. If you have served in any branch of the military, certain dates and activities (exercises), people and events that occur as part of a unit always stick in your mind and and I would have thought even more so as an Officer.

Entry to Course, Graduation, Promotion. After all, your commission certificate has a date on it so surely he can't get the start date wrong !!! LOL


HTB
PM sent

Sam. Go back to post #72, read what people have said to you, think about it and address the points.

500N

Check PM

Mister B

Why not just let him go rather than outing him. There seems to be one or two people that seem quite keen on getting itel on him!

Walt hunting, the new sport.

Our brown colleagues over at Arrse are going to submit a team for 2016, the sport failed to make the cut for the 2012 running and jockstrapping club.

Anyone who has actually dealt with "shapes", "devices" or suchlike knows they don't brag about it - ever, especially to a gob****e liney (like me) they met once on the t'interweb.

The little that I saw - I forgetted, just as I was ordered to...... (unless I am walting a little and its a bluff that I ever saw Anything)
If I can surmise - Sam has a tinfoil armadillo hat, has bragged about where when and who etc, been called on it, not satisfied the burden of proof etc etc.

Oh and he has a theory that "someone, (USA, Israel, UK, someone else)" is going to make a part of Iran into a big hole in the ground - whether or not there is a bucket, sunshine, full of, small, involved is gossipy.

I throw my hat into the ring too - if Iran suffers a smacking this side of 1/1/2012 I will donate a chunky to charideee, if not I call Sam to put up.

Interesting comentary on Iran here:

George Grant: John Baron MP has got it wrong on Iran Comment

Interesting article and some good points made, Courtney.

Former Mosad cheif Meir Dagan has bee speaking and although he's been denounced, he raised exactly the point I offered to SAM earlier - although I doubt he's read it. See:

Former Mossad chief: Israeli strike on Iran will lead to regional war - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

If Israel sees regional war as the only alternative to getting nuked, then I think it likely Israel would chose regional war.

Yep, good point. But without access to their intel and knowing what alternative action they may have considered, it's hard to tell. See earlier post about the effect of a single (very big) nuke.

Agree.

If it means Iran's facilities are taken out, I think they would look at it as a small price to pay in view of the potential bigger price to pay.

I think you're right. So where's SAM in all this?

M2

As he admitted earlier, he's had to access this site using a poxy server (I had one of them once at a sqn dining in night), maybe that's slowing down his thought processes. I'm off for the weekend, out of range of webby things - so await developments; by the time I get back, there will be ten days to armagedopalypse, or whatever the outcome of SAM's dream is.

Mister B

edit for spolling irror

I'm with you there, Mr B.

I don't think these have been linked to before:
before and after commercial satellite images of the Iranian site which blew up on 12th November
Satellite Images Show Devastation at Iran Missile Base After Blast

Looks like a chemical plant explosion to me - like when a nitration plant goes up
Nitration plant for making rocket fuel?

The problem as I see it with those images is the rubble has been cleaned up a bit which takes away some of the information that would have been available as to blast direction, power etc.

I haven't had time to look closely but has anyone had time to work out the centre of the blast - if it was located in the photo and not off to one side.


Edit
My quick guesstimate is that the centre of the blast, based on angle of damage was the Square, dark blue roofed building, top left of the compound. Also based on the fact that not much left of it, however as the debris has been cleaned up a bit this may be misguided.

I also can't see any hole in the ground, which even a ground detonated explosion should have left some sort of crater. Would love to see a more detailed satellite photo.

Anyone else care to comment ?

shy talk

"That place looks like it has been bombed."

Why do you say that ? Can you explain further.


Looks to me like a massive blast ground based blast centred where I said before that completely blew away some buildings and damaged those ends of buildings that were facing the blast.

shy talk

So you disagree that the images show the buildings damaged more at one end than the other ?

Why no craters ? Air burst bombs ?

Why is one building comletely gone but the others just damaged ?

Some more clues please.


A big explosion, flimsy buildings, the blast radius is pretty big.


What do you think the distances are between the buildings ? Using the original photo for reference points.

There are, what look to be, articulated lorries near the buildings on the right. They must be about 40' long.

There are scorch marks around where the middle of the 3 buildings on the left are, or rather were, possibly where the event happened.

Blast radius can be a moot point, but certainly significant damage occurred out to ~300'.

Dunno how that translates into quantities (and types) of rocket fuel. Or TNT!

Can't use YouTube at work but there are plenty of launch pad explosions to gauge the rocket fuel aspect.

looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N

Furthermore when a chemical plant goes off, typically you won't get a crater: they have reinforced thick concrete floors and typically the explosion pressure pulse simply bounces off the concrete, and takes the least line of resistance - walls and roof.

Only questions here is - was it an accident, or was it caused deliberately?

jamesdevice
"looks to me like an explosion in or around that snaller grey roofed building just left of centre - just below the blue building mentioned by 500N"

I think you might be correct, the scorch / burn marks are darker here and typical of what you could get.

If it was rocket fuel for a Missile a la chemical, agree, re no crater.

From my experience, even small explosions of TNT, C4, AMFO detonated on the ground leave small craters unless tamped, which least me to the next point.

The blast radius / shock wave would be large enough and powerful enough to knock buildings around (and obviously nearly flatten those close by), especially if there was nothing to contain it, slow it down, direct it upwards etc etc and there doesn't seem to be anything to do that.

Just my HO.


Here is a good normal and slow motion video of the Rocket Fuel fire and explosion in the US showing very good shock waves. I don't think the Iran one was nearly as big but the shock wave would have been the same.

and thats the curious thing. On an explosives / rocket fuel manufacturing site you would expect some kind of earth bund / berm between buildings, and also a much greater separation of the buildings. Which leads to four possible conclusions
1) the risks were not understood (unlikely
2) the risks were ignored - the plant / people were expendable (possible)
3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task
4) someone created a risk where there wasn't one by placing an explosive....

Its interesting that all the purported film of this event on the web shows only a large column of WHITE smoke, suggesting there was either little fire - or the fire was quickly put out. Which suggests little lying around in the way of flammables. Which makes me think, was this a vapour explosion with everything burnt off in one flash? Leaking gas tanks / fuel lines? Yet theres nothing obviously visible of that type. Exploding tanker? Anyone know how the Iranians fuel their rockets? Hydrazine?

James

I wouldn't think you need an explosive to set off Rocket fuel like you need one for ANFO or C4 etc etc.

I'm sure their were plenty of volatile things in the factory - which proved correct !!!

You've always got static electricity as an accidental source ?

I would say the site relates to your " 3) there was originally no risk and this is a plant subverted from its original task".

Re the Berm, on other "bigger" pictures of the Iran site it does look like their is a wall or something around the whole area but quite some way out.

Even a small, angled earth berm around a building will direct the majority of the shock wave upwards. As long as whatever it is, especially earth, impede the shock wave, it will stay intact. ie the Old Bomb Explosive bunkers of yesteryear that had the earth berms around them.

Agreed look at the devastation caused at the buncefield fire - no explosives there but probably felt like being hit by a sqn of BUFF's fully loaded for a Rolling Thunder or Arc Light.

I know I'd not want to be there - as to the explosion in MadDinnerJackets house of rocketry (allegedly) it seems to point to a big fuel explosion - does not need to be much of a source.

Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity.

Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?

Cornish
"Oh, yeah, my terms for the bet. If MSM picks up that Iran gets bombed before 1/1/12 0001 hrs. I will put £50 into the Royal British Legion - if not I call Sam XXV as a lying walt and expect him to put £50 into a forces charity."

"Any takers.......? or is Sam's ego and imagination writing cheques his body can't cash?"


Sam's ego - yes, well, in view of what it took (as in what I wrote) to get him to bite on my bet / challenge, he obviously has one. I don't think he would have liked what else I had to write if he hadn't have responded but it certainly would have made him bite.

I'd suggest we win my bet first and make sure he pays that first because I have a sneaking suspicion he might try to wriggle out of the whole thing - in which case I would hope that the PPRuNe Mods get rid of him.
.

Sam
no-one is going to fill a large missile with liquid fuel and then move it
a) not safe
b) missile would be able to handle the stresses - skin would rupture

Unless you are suggesting that they were doing a test fuel / defuel, but then
1) why do it indoors ? (damned unsafe)
2) that building does not look tall enough


PS theres a heck of a difference between a Bloodhound and a ballistic missile