Just thinking back to SAM's little runaway adventure when he was about 14 years old (if the pofile is to be believed); I think I know where the friendly black man took him and his pal. After a few changes of tube station, he ended up at the east end of the Hammersmith and City Line (or if you like, 3 stops past Plaistow on the District Line).:rolleyes:

Mister B

D'oh!!! I had to reach for the tube map to get that one. Stupid me!

That isn't the aim of the conventional bomb in question. It's aim is to get at hardened underground sites in a variety of places all over the globe, which I think includes Korea.

You could, if you wanted to, bomb the Iran nuke sites without deposing the government in Iran. It is my opinion that B-2 would be the platform of choice, but I understand why other choices are also considered.

Why do you think this will happen within the next six weeks? What drives that timeline? Seems arbitrary.

LW 50

I believe there is only one poster on this thread who thinks that such an event is likely [before Christmas] - he who started it; the rest is speculation on escalation, retaliation, obliteration.

Mister B

Assuming fission/fussion, a 10 MT weapon would create a fireball about 3 miles across and would cause burns to exposed skin out to about 20 miles. Blast damage to non-hardened structures out to about 10 miles. Fallout doesn't stop at national boundaries.

To get a 10 MT yield would require roughly a 4,000kg bomb - that takes a big rocket to lift (about the size of Redstone???). I think the largest yield weapon that the US had produced until last year was only about 9 MT.

Israel is about 8,500 square miles and has nearly 8 million inhabitants - some 20% of Arab decent. Is that a viable target?

Anyway, that wasn't the thread, was it?

Yeah. I agree they're not making any friends, are they?

Mach Two

SAM Can't let the facts get in the way of a good story, even if he does contradict himself from one post to the next.

The world expert on Middle East policy, US Policy, Israel's Tactics, Nuclear fall out and everything else under the sun :O (hopefully not Nuclear Sunshine)
.

SAM
Good to see you have contradicted yourself again. I thought it was going to Wipe out all of Israel and stop them from retaliating ?


Anyway, are you going to accept my bet ?

Since you now say Mid December, I'll double my bet to 100 pounds if you accept.

The numbers I gave are about ballpark for an optimum altitude burst rather than surface. So that's about the biggest blast/thermal distance you can expect from that class of weapon.

"Therefore I predict that the failing Obama administration will use B2's to deliver exactly 8 conventional warheads (TNT - call it what you will) on the Iranian underground facilities before Xmas. "


Excellent!

The bet is on......

I'm sure there are many who would see iran bombed into the stone age.

Quite how dropping bombs on that country will lead to the necessary advances to achieve this is a moot point.

Sam

I've been tracking your online sparring and on many points have been quite intrigued, even finding some basis for truth..

But for me, the story of the black man and the knife ....WTF

As they say on Dragons Den.........I'm out

SAM
I see you are ignoring my challenge / bet.

Are you not sure of your facts or don't you have the balls to back up what you say with something a bit more substantial. If the amount is too high, I would be happy to lower it to a level you are happy with without any adverse comment from me as I don't know your circumstances.

Or should I take it that you, as a representative of the RAF are letting other current RAF and Ex RAF down by not accepting a challenge from the Green side ?

Where I come from, if you didn't accept the challenge from the other services you were a real pussy and let your side down.

Maybe my expectations were a bit high:O

SamDepending upon what the local earth/rock is made of, getting the bomb about 30M into the ground before detonating is no small trick.

Can it be done? No comment. Maybe, maybe not.

The idea of the conventional bomb isn't that it waits until 200 feet deep to detonate, it's that its energy is sufficient to reach deep into the substrate once it penetrates as far as it can.

@ Willard: I agree that dropping bombs on Iran doesn't seem to resolve the underlying political problem very much. It may allow blowing up those buildings in the nuclear program that the Iranians are't blowing up themselves. Last I read, the 22 Nov event was a controlled demolition of some buildings on that site, done by the Iranian authorities for their own reasons. (Covering tracks? Contamination? Who knows?)

As to today's blast ... which occurred but then didn't occur ... who knows?

Options for SAM
 

1. Take the bet.

2. Admit you are a Walt loner.

3. Do nothing(And then everyone
knows you are a lying 'number two')

Why not drop one of these GBU jobbers on top of ArmouredDinnerJacket? It'd open a big enough crack in the Earth that we'd be able to hand him directly to old Nick. With him out of the way the regime would then hopefully go the way of Libya's - its what the majority of Iranians want.

"Is the destructive power as much as the 22.000lb Grand Slam Bomb ?"

Checking the internet reveals the following. However remember that nothing on the internet can be trusted....

Grand Slam
Weight - variously quoted as 22,000 or 22,400 lb. The lesser seems to to be more likely
Charge / weight ratio 42% i.e.9408lb of explosive (Torpex) (edit - Wikidpaedia says 9,135 lb)
However there needs to be a caveat here as Paul Brickhill in his book "The Dam Busters" states the rough forgings weighed ten tons before machining i.e. 22400lb
That would mean 60% or so of the forging would have to be machined away before filling and fitting with fusing etc. Does that sound realistic?


MOP
weight 30,000lb
charge "more than 5,300lb" - actual explosive unstated

So the actual charge is only around 60% of that of the Grand Slam - but with newer explosive technology that could be totally irrelevant.. Modern explosives have come a long way since WWII
The actual bomb weighs around 40% more and so has a much lower charge/weight ratio of around 18%. i.e. it has a heavier stronger case which should enable it to be dropped from greater heights and take a heavier impact / terminal velocity. And in theory penetrate further

If the Arab League are as good as their threats and impose a no-fly zone for Syrian aircraft, it would be incredibly fortuitous for Israel. No-one to stop them at all - unless the Turks were to contest Israeli passage over Syria. Anyone see that happening?

SAM ex 15

Is that bet with 500N for your revised timetable of middle December? Only 15 days away.

Do you want to take my wager as well, on the same terms as for 500N?

Mister B

SAMXXV. I've been watching here with great interest. I doubt I've ever seen a thread that was so 1 v many before. I occurred to me to wonder what's really going on. One of these?

1. You're winding everyone up, in which case hats off to you and keep it up!

2. You have access to good intel, in which case you should stop immediately.

3. This is your own analysis that you truly believe and you're sticking to your guns despite overwhelming opposition to your views, in which case hats off and keep going.

4. You've come off your medication when you shouldn't have, in which case start taking the pills again, but still keep posting because it's enormous fun.

Either way, as long as you're careful about what you reveal/postulate, thanks for a really entertaining thread and good luck with the bets. :D

SAMXXV

Ack

£50 is fine by me.

We are still working to the same timetable of "say Mid December" ?
Since you are in the UK, let's make it by exactly 2359 hrs Z 15 Dec 2011
that was it doesn't matter where in the world it happens, we are all working
on the same time.

My charity will be decided if I lose and chosen as per my previous post.

Yes, things have progressed along a fair bit. We will see.

I have no contacts anywhere in the UK and certainly not in the MOD / FO.
Re Brown Jobs / Green Jobs, Army and my beret was always green to me.

SAM
Stop changing the date.

See your post 52 on the preceding page.

I quote
"I now bring my bet of a severe air strike on Iran to mid December.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/sr...ilies/cool.gif"

.
Well done to your son. He'll soon know if he is good enough, hope he is. I very nearly joined the Paras in '81 but came to Aust instead. In some ways still wished I had joined them.

Looks like attacks, by one means or another, are already in progress...

A second Iranian nuclear facility has exploded, as diplomatic tensions rise between the West and Tehran


AN IRANIAN nuclear facility has been hit by a huge explosion, the second such blast in a month, prompting speculation that Tehran's military and atomic sites are under attack.

Satellite imagery seen by The Times confirmed that a blast that rocked the city of Isfahan on Monday struck the uranium enrichment facility there, despite denials by Tehran. The images clearly showed billowing smoke and destruction, negating Iranian claims yesterday that no such explosion had taken place. Israeli intelligence officials told The Times that there was "no doubt" that the blast struck the nuclear facilities at Isfahan and that it was "no accident".

The explosion at Iran's third-largest city came as satellite images emerged of the damage caused by one at a military base outside Tehran two weeks ago that killed about 30 members of the Revolutionary Guard, including General Hassan Moghaddam, the head of the Iranian missile defence program. Iran claimed that the Tehran explosion occurred during testing on a new weapons system designed to strike at Israel. But several Israeli officials have confirmed that the blast was intentional and part of an effort to target Iran's nuclear weapons program.

On Monday, Isfahan residents reported a blast that shook tower blocks in the city at about 2.40pm and seeing a cloud of smoke rising over the nuclear facility on the edge of the city. "This caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials," said one military intelligence source. He would not confirm or deny Israel's involvement in the blast, instead saying that there were "many different parties looking to sabotage, stop or coerce Iran into stopping its nuclear weapons program".

Iran went into frantic denial yesterday as news of the explosion at Isfahan emerged. Alireza Zaker-Isfahani, the city's governor, claimed that the blast had been caused by a military exercise in the area but state-owned agencies in Tehran soon removed this story and issued a government denial that any explosion had taken place at all.

On Monday, Dan Meridor. the Israeli Intelligence Minister, said: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."

Major-General Giora Eiland, Israel's former director of national security, told Israel's army radio that the Isfahan blast was no accident. "There aren't many coincidences, and when there are so many events there is probably some sort of guiding hand, though perhaps it's the hand of God," he said.

A former Israeli intelligence official cited at least two other explosions that have "successfully neutralised" Iranian bases associated with the Shahab-3, the medium-range missile that could be adapted to carry a nuclear warhead. "This is something everyone in the West wanted to see happen," he added..............

SAM

My understanding of " is that an attack on Iran will occur" is that the Israelis and the US will DROP bombs on Iran / Iranian facilities FROM Military aircraft.

Do you want to include Missiles (ie Cruise type) in the list as well ?

Your thoughts ?

.

I'm not sure that answered 500N's question, Sam.

Some sinister force must be censoring Radio 4; there ain't much mention of all this iminent doom on the Today, World at One or PM programmes (nor the regular news bulletins).

By the way, how do you know where the UK and US have deployed their SSBN assets?

Mister B

SAMXXV wrote

A bit behind the times there, Sam. The TR-1 designation went nearly 20 years ago.

From

SENIOR YEAR U-2 / TR-1

The military operated U-2Rs underwent an upgrade including a new engine. After upgrading with the F-118-101 engine, the former U-2Rs were designated the U-2S.

As to 'CIA operated U-2s' over Iran. The USAF operate the U-2S and NASA operate the ER-2s. The U-2 is a highly vulnerable platform for a direct overflight. It certainly wouldn't be overflying Iran. Peripheral collection using slant sensors from International or friendly airspace is what would be taking place. If anything was assigned to operate over Iran in an intelligence collection role it certainly wouldn't be a manned platform.

The Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel has for example been photographed operating from Afghan bases.

New Photos of USAF RQ-170 Sentinel released | Defence Aviation

UAVs Dominate Surveillance And Targeting | AVIATION WEEK

Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

TEEJ/SAM/ORAC

1. If the Israelis are involved in these two explosions, that indicates to me no need whatsoever for the IAF to fly over Iran and drop bombs. It would seem that another means has been figured out. But I am not sure what to make of the cryptic comments from the Israelis, as information warfare and deception are becoming more frequently and subtly used by a lot of different parties. (See the Pakistan/US mess currently underway along the Pak?Afghan border).

2. U2 over flights, Iran. No. I can say that with some operational experience, having worked on some stuff a few years back that included a whole variety of surveillance packages in that part of the world. No further comment.

3. UAV's: heh, part of the reason to use some of those assets is that they are very, very hard to detect. Who knows what assets are being used to keep any eye on Iran's nuclear sites?

4. Don't forget various satellites.

Cheers.

Interesting developments (yes, I know it is from the Telegraph!!!)
• William Hague orders closure of Iran embassy in London
• All Iranian officials ordered to leave within the next 48 hours
• Britain withdraws diplomatic staff from Iran after embassy attacks
• Norway closes its Tehran embassy citing security concerns
• David Cameron says Britain considering 'very tough action'

You never know SAM, you might be in with a chance !!! LOL

SAM
Re your quote "Israel requires permission", that is funny. sorry, but israel does not ask permission of Syria if they are going to over fly to bomb someone. They might ask the US re Iraq airspace but not others if they don't have to.
Another "Green Leader" moment ?????? LOL


Re your quote "Israel just cannot stand back & accept the threats of being wiped off the planet by Iran. Would you?"
I would have thought you would have worked out by now that I don't back down from a fight / challenge so No, I would not accept it.


Lonewolf
I agree re UAV'S / Satellites.

To be honest, I am amazed at what info is out and publicly available on the internet or has become public since the US invaded Afghanistan.

SAM
I am trying to be black and white here re the bet so no ambiguity occurs but you are NOT answering the question re the time.

I have reproduced my post below

"Stop changing the date.
See your post 52 on the preceding page.
I quote
"I now bring my bet of a severe air strike on Iran to mid December.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/sr...ilies/cool.gif"


So SAM, you changed the original bet to mid December and that is why I am working on Mid December, as specified by my ZULU time / date designation.
Stop trying to give yourself extra time.



Anyone else care to chime in re what they think the date deadline of the bet should be ? The SAME as SAM's original bet ?

I really don't think it will make any difference.....

"I really don't think it will make any difference....."

I am happy to pay up if proved wrong but SAM opened his big mouth and I am not going to let him wriggle out of it by extending the date to give him a few extra days.

Especially since he (SAM) keeps chopping and changing on everything else in this thread, especially or even when others who seem / are far more knowledgeable post facts that are the opposite to what he has posted.

He made his bed, now he can sleep in it.

Well at least if I win, you win which means SAM won't be around any more to post ?????

amen brother.....

That's what I meant, SAM. You didn't answer 500N's question. In fact, I think you need to address all his points. My take, for what it's worth, is that your bet is:

Big Blu dropped on Iranian nuclear sites by Is/US by 15th December.

Here's another thought for you. Will Israel really risk being caught taking such agressive action when they know that they are surrounded by Arab nations who are looking for an excuse to jump over their garden fence and try to beat the crap out of them?

READ WHAT PEOPLE ARE SAYING AND ADDRESS THE POINTS rather than keep spouting different positions every day and conveniently ignoring what's been said to you.

Are you sure that APG63's first point isn't closer to the truth? Or is this attention seeking?

Oh, and you don't need to keep quoting entire posts. Be concise.

M2

500N, I support your position, but he (SAM) did change it to "mid-December".

Mach Two, well said.

One thing, though. I've been looking through SAM's other posts at some length (out of interest as to where he's coming from) and I have had to rethink my point 1. I don't think this is a wind-up. He's like this in every thread. Off the plot, out of date, random and with some very strange an irrelevant extras - the guy that befriended him, his son, his post as Op O in Laarbruch, etc. All a bit strange. No, it's not a wind-up, it's something else.

Tourist, hear, hear.

Lone Wolf, wise words.

Still a cracking thread.

I'd like to run a Psych profile on SAM, I think it would be very interesting case study.:O

However that might ruin his RAF career - if he is in the RAF !


SAM
Enough other posters are in agreement without any disagreeing so it's Mid December and I'll re post it just to be sure you understand.

"let's make it by exactly 2359 hrs Z 15 Dec 2011"


Now that is settled, I'm off the bet subject until the 15th (unless all out war starts before then :O)


Let's get this thread back on the interesting discussions and SAM's rantings and ravings on US / Israeli policy and tactics.
.

I would describe mid-December as sometime between about the 10th and about the 21st.

Ish.

Maybe he's got the year wrong and is thinking of Dec 21st 2012?

2012 phenomenon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Willard

Don't you start :O



Back on topic

These "explosions" that have been occurring - and remember that a General was killed which to me seemed a bit strange.

What are people's thoughts ?
- Internal factions within Iran getting rid of opponents ?
- US / Israeli involvement ?
- Sabotage from / by whoever, US / Israeli or even internal ?
- Messy safety procedures and / or trying to do some things too fast
and cutting corners, causing fatal safety mistakes which in turn leads
to a chain reaction just like Aircraft crashes, no one cause ?

Willard, how on earth did you happen across that? Fascinating, but scary that you knew it was there! :ok:

500N. Dunno. Lots of those are possible. Don't worry about it. I'm sure SAM will know!