Lonewolf_50

A bit late to the party, Mein Herr.
More charitably: it's about damned time.

Wokkafans

artee

Interesting article by Gavin Hall of the University of Strathclyde

Ukraine war: what we know so far about reports of battles being fought across the border in Russia

Reports have emerged of fighting inside Russia involving pro-Ukraine or anti-Putin troops engaged in combat in the Belgorod Oblast. This is a region close to Russia’s border with Ukraine, with a mixed Russian and Ukrainian ethnic population. It is widely reported that Russia has urgently moved nuclear weapons from a storage facility in the region.

Details are sketchy so far, but the fighting is reported to involve the Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and other groups, including the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), beginning after an attack on May 22 on the Russian border village of Kozinka in Belgorod Oblast. Ukrainian partisans and other pro-Ukraine troops have been fighting in the region since the invasion began in February 2022.

There is a great deal of speculation surrounding the attack and it must be noted that there is intense disinformation coming from both sides, meaning that complete verification is impossible at this stage.

.../continues

Recc

I also wonder whether this operation was intended as a (less than subtle) signal to western supporters of Ukraine. Shifting the war to Russian territory is absolutely the last thing that these governments want to happen. Ukraine may well be demonstrating that the least risky course of action is for these supporters to give Ukraine such overwhelming military advantage that they can fight and win without leaving their own territory.

NutLoose

Alleged shot down Helicopter in the battle for Belgorod

NutLoose

A good read and possibly why Lukashenko has gone to Moscow

https://ukrainefrontlines.com/opinio...everal-trends/

NutLoose

Aviation Content: now that IS low

Tartiflette Fan

That's just one more in the swirl of possibilities, however one certainty is that this will have the same effect as Russia's small force in Byelorussia: namely that it will be necessary to detail forces to this area as a covering measure against future incursions.

jolihokistix

I have not followed this too closely, but it seemed to me that after the local populace was warned away, this reasonably well-armo(u)red convoy was zapped straight down, pretty smartly and pretty comprehensively. With elements of a suicide mission, what on earth did they hope to accomplish? Did they think that the bear in the cave was dead? Did anyone get back alive, I wonder?

At least it showed everyone where their weaknesses and where their strengths lie today.

Recc

On the contrary, there is very little evidence that they suffered any (or significant) losses. The Russians showed some pictures of supposedly destroyed vehicles, but there are legitimate questions about whether these are genuine losses or staged photos using previously captured vehicles. My understanding is that the pro-Ukrainian forces used fairly standard raiding tactics, wreaking havoc on a lightly defended area of the front and retreating when Russian reinforcements arrived. They certainly published videos this morning showing their forces back across the border with at least some of their vehicles.

NutLoose

I agree, it now leaves Russia with a quandary, how to protect their long and not insignificant border with Ukraine from future incursions, and not just small scale raids. The fact they had to rapidly remove nuclear weapons from storage and move them must have the alarms ringing in Moscow.. The fear of Ukraine capturing them must have been an immense worry to the Kremlin.

So far from what was a small raiding party utilising a small force and vehicles, Russia will need to respond with a large amount of military and equipment they simply appear to not have spare to man the border regions, and that will tie those troops up for long periods defending the borders, troops that may have to come from reserves or from Ukraine itself.
I seems a masterstroke to me resulting in massive gains from a relatively small incursion.


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jolihokistix

Recc & Nutty, thanks for the updates. I'll go and have a look around.

NutLoose

Hahaha, remember the huge 2000 plus vehicle traffic jams for a week when the war started, the reason is coming out, apparently Ukraine blew the bridges, so the advance stopped, Russia then started to look for pontoon bridges ( I assume their own ) to find that they had gone, they had been snatched.... Ie stolen

You just couldn't make this up, launch a war knowing at some point you will need to cross rivers and omit to ensure you have the bridging equipment in your column.

fdr

A fast way to alienate the local population. Popcorn anyone...
A poorly trained, supplied and led peace keeping force that isn't invested in the area is going to respond as always when pushed back, with indiscriminate brutality, which doesn't win hearts & minds, and the probability that the last dictators own troops are a match to Russian irregulars that have 15 months of combat experience and a beef with Krimlin management that messed up their country is pretty low.

The incursion is a gutsy move, the boss isn't going to be too kind if they are unfortunate enough to be captured. They still seem to be active in the field and have added a little mayhem and more complexity to the dear leaders situation. This may not go far in its current form, but it may be the edge of the wedge to further pushback from other ethnic regions that have issues with the Krimlin.

Would have bet that it was a false flag, and I guess that Russian irregulars taking on russia's yoke is at least not Ukrainian troops.

NutLoose

see

NutLoose

Meanwhile in Russia

NutLoose

Russian propaganda seems to be shifting from we will be in France for Christmas and will nuke the Uk to.... Sh*t... we are in the Poo and we are worried..They are worried that their own people will start to question WHY? and that is the start of their downfall, they are worried about the strikes on Russia, they have finally realised that in a war with a neighbour, there is no magic wall of invunerability protecting their country for counter strikes, nukes or no nukes...


Belgorod has got them panicking, they are now worried about Nukes being given to Ukraine! Skabe beva can see the writing on the wall.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1661035785015926785?cxt=HHwWgoCx0d7Pl40uAAAA

.

jolihokistix

Is this map suggesting that there were three separate incursions? (I do get their point about constant shelling from Russia towards Karkhiv, and hopefully a raid or two like this will send such a message.)

Oh and seeing Lenin's statue above I am reminded that Putin likes Stalin but definitely not Lenin.

https://t.co/oUCovZLxIR」 / Twitter

NutLoose

Some of the vehicle locations of the supposed captured vehicles at the Russian border checkpoint.


On this film, three seconds in "For Bakhmut" painted with fireproof paint over a burnt out vehicles LOL, look at 17 seconds in, it is looking inside one of the vehicles, look at the amount of dust on the instrument binnacle and steering wheel, I doubt that has been driven anywhere in a while.

NutLoose

Smoke over the kerch bridge which is closed as Russia carry out exercises.