Ukraine War Thread Part 2
Kerch bridge - 3rd attack?
Can Ukraine pull off the destruction of the Kerch bridge? Or are they just trying to unsettle the Russians? My bold.
Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence
Third attack on Kerch bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea ‘inevitable’, say Ukraine’s military intelligence
...Senior officials from Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service indicate it is plotting a third attempt on the bridge, after two previous attempts to blow it up, claiming its destruction is “inevitable”.
For Putin, the bridge is a tangible reminder of what he sees as one of his greatest political achievements: the peninsula’s 2014 “return” to Russia using undercover Russian troops and a sham referendum.
For Kyiv, the bridge is equally a hated symbol of the Kremlin’s illegal annexation. Its destruction would strengthen Ukraine’s campaign to liberate Crimea and raise morale on and off the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are gradually being pushed back.
How any Ukrainian attack would unfold is unclear and there are serious doubts about whether the HUR is capable of pulling off a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening anti-aircraft defences and deploying a “target barge” as a decoy for incoming guided missiles.
The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
Over the past five months Ukraine has sunk seven landing boats and large ships belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. The latest, the Sergei Kotov, capsized earlier this month after a night-time raid involving 10 Ukrainian Magura V5 amphibious drones packed with explosives as it was on patrol south of the Kerch bridge. HUR officials indicated this was a “shaping operation” prior to another attack on the crossing...
For Putin, the bridge is a tangible reminder of what he sees as one of his greatest political achievements: the peninsula’s 2014 “return” to Russia using undercover Russian troops and a sham referendum.
For Kyiv, the bridge is equally a hated symbol of the Kremlin’s illegal annexation. Its destruction would strengthen Ukraine’s campaign to liberate Crimea and raise morale on and off the battlefield, where Kyiv’s forces are gradually being pushed back.
How any Ukrainian attack would unfold is unclear and there are serious doubts about whether the HUR is capable of pulling off a special operation against such a well-defended and obvious target. Russia has taken extensive measures to protect the bridge, strengthening anti-aircraft defences and deploying a “target barge” as a decoy for incoming guided missiles.
The HUR thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.
Over the past five months Ukraine has sunk seven landing boats and large ships belonging to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. The latest, the Sergei Kotov, capsized earlier this month after a night-time raid involving 10 Ukrainian Magura V5 amphibious drones packed with explosives as it was on patrol south of the Kerch bridge. HUR officials indicated this was a “shaping operation” prior to another attack on the crossing...
Russia now have their land bridge, something they had long wanted.
We have read here (?) recently that the Kerch Bridge is no longer being used to carry materiel as before, amid suggestions that it is already structurally weakened from previous attacks.
We have read here (?) recently that the Kerch Bridge is no longer being used to carry materiel as before, amid suggestions that it is already structurally weakened from previous attacks.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-draft-age-law
Ukraine military draft age lowered to boost fighting force
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a bill to lower the mobilisation age for combat duty from 27 to 25, a move that should help Ukraine generate more fighting power in its war with Russia.
The move expands the number of civilians the army can mobilise into its ranks to fight under martial law, which has been in place since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The bill had been on Zelenskiy’s table since it was approved by lawmakers in May 2023, and it was not immediately clear what prompted him to sign it. Parliament has been discussing a separate bill to broadly tighten draft rules for months.
Zelenskiy separately signed a second bill requiring men who were given military waivers on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.
A third bill he signed aimed to create an online database of those eligible for military service. Both those bills could potentially help the military draft more fighters.….
The signing of the mobilisation age legislation was not immediately announced by the president’s office. Parliament merely updated the entry for the bill on its website to read: “returned with the signature of the president of Ukraine”.
Zelenskiy said late last year that he would sign the bill only if he was given a strong enough argument of the need to do so.
The Ukrainian leader said in December that the military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces, something he said the then-commander of the armed forces had asked for.
Since then, Ukraine has changed the head of the armed forces and the new chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week that the figure was no longer up to date and that it had been “significantly reduced” after a review of resources……
Ukraine military draft age lowered to boost fighting force
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has signed a bill to lower the mobilisation age for combat duty from 27 to 25, a move that should help Ukraine generate more fighting power in its war with Russia.
The move expands the number of civilians the army can mobilise into its ranks to fight under martial law, which has been in place since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The bill had been on Zelenskiy’s table since it was approved by lawmakers in May 2023, and it was not immediately clear what prompted him to sign it. Parliament has been discussing a separate bill to broadly tighten draft rules for months.
Zelenskiy separately signed a second bill requiring men who were given military waivers on disability grounds to undergo another medical assessment.
A third bill he signed aimed to create an online database of those eligible for military service. Both those bills could potentially help the military draft more fighters.….
The signing of the mobilisation age legislation was not immediately announced by the president’s office. Parliament merely updated the entry for the bill on its website to read: “returned with the signature of the president of Ukraine”.
Zelenskiy said late last year that he would sign the bill only if he was given a strong enough argument of the need to do so.
The Ukrainian leader said in December that the military had proposed mobilising up to 500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces, something he said the then-commander of the armed forces had asked for.
Since then, Ukraine has changed the head of the armed forces and the new chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week that the figure was no longer up to date and that it had been “significantly reduced” after a review of resources……
They may not cross in large convoys or trains instead using it for lighter duties. Taking the bridge out will still attract intense global attention and be a propaganda coup for Kyiv whilst causing more political damage to Putin at home and further military humiliation.
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It seems that the russians have effectively no air defence detection capability accross Russia and they could not detect a C172 sized aircraft.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
It seems that the russians have effectively no air defence detection capability accross Russia and they could not detect a C172 sized aircraft.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
It seems that the russians have effectively no air defence detection capability accross Russia and they could not detect a C172 sized aircraft.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
Now imagine if the Ukrainians could take a few clapped out airliners that were heading for the scrap yard. A 737 sized airframe could easily carry 10 tons of explosives and 50,000lbs of fuel. Now that would make one helova mess it it plowed into an oil refinery. Surely 5 or 6 barely airworthy airframes could be scrapped up around the world for one final flight.
(As long as they are not damp.)
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
and crew those with al-qaeda ISIS supporters, maybe?
Here's one they did years ago.....
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Trying to fly a big aircraft by remote is problematic due to the size. Lag is the problem which is why the above aircraft missed it's marks. The crash was a fail as were other remote airliner style crashes.
Small aircraft are more nimble and can be placed on target a lot easier. Also r/c is not drone tech. Drones are autonomous.
Small aircraft are more nimble and can be placed on target a lot easier. Also r/c is not drone tech. Drones are autonomous.
Regardles of the technical challenges, I think part of the problem with a potential 7-drone-7 would be the PR fallout from mis-targetting. At the moment Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, are suffering a percentage of missiles/artillery/bombs which are striking civiian buildings, whether due to inadequate care in targetting, deliberate intent, or premature encounters with air-defences.
However tragic the consequences for civilians receiving an unexpected Kinzhal, the outrage rarely persists in public consciousness beyond a day or 2. The image of a flak-damaged, explosive-laden, airliner flying into a high-rise however is going to remain like, well, you know .....
However tragic the consequences for civilians receiving an unexpected Kinzhal, the outrage rarely persists in public consciousness beyond a day or 2. The image of a flak-damaged, explosive-laden, airliner flying into a high-rise however is going to remain like, well, you know .....
The Russians know that destroyed railway lines can be more quickly repaired on solid land as opposed to on a bridge, which is why they are pressing ahead with the rail network throughout their newly-established land bridge joining mother Russia through Mariupol, around the Azov Sea to Crimea.
I am not suggesting they should not take down the bridge, but that it may end up being more of a symbolic act, and a personal affront to Mr P.
The Russians know that destroyed railway lines can be more quickly repaired on solid land as opposed to on a bridge, which is why they are pressing ahead with the rail network throughout their newly-established land bridge joining mother Russia through Mariupol, around the Azov Sea to Crimea.
The Russians know that destroyed railway lines can be more quickly repaired on solid land as opposed to on a bridge, which is why they are pressing ahead with the rail network throughout their newly-established land bridge joining mother Russia through Mariupol, around the Azov Sea to Crimea.
Regardles of the technical challenges, I think part of the problem with a potential 7-drone-7 would be the PR fallout from mis-targetting. At the moment Russia, and to a lesser extent Ukraine, are suffering a percentage of missiles/artillery/bombs which are striking civiian buildings, whether due to inadequate care in targetting, deliberate intent, or premature encounters with air-defences.
However tragic the consequences for civilians receiving an unexpected Kinzhal, the outrage rarely persists in public consciousness beyond a day or 2. The image of a flak-damaged, explosive-laden, airliner flying into a high-rise however is going to remain like, well, you know .....
However tragic the consequences for civilians receiving an unexpected Kinzhal, the outrage rarely persists in public consciousness beyond a day or 2. The image of a flak-damaged, explosive-laden, airliner flying into a high-rise however is going to remain like, well, you know .....
My guess is that the orcs tried to steal the bricks and the roof sheets of some garden shed. Garden shed for I can't see no toilet seat inside.
Zelenskyy: "Russia is planning to mobilize additional 300k troops by June 1st"
How it started: "we have 190k men and we'll take Kyiv in three days"
How it's going: "we are on our third mobilization wave with yet another 300k men to make up for the already lost 450k troops on our third year of war and aren't any closer to Kyiv than on day 1"
How it started: "we have 190k men and we'll take Kyiv in three days"
How it's going: "we are on our third mobilization wave with yet another 300k men to make up for the already lost 450k troops on our third year of war and aren't any closer to Kyiv than on day 1"
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Too late for F16s?
"Despite months of preparations and training, it seems that the western-supplied F-16 fighter jets due to arrive in Ukraine in July may be ‘no longer relevant’ in the fight against Russia. Speaking on condition of anonymity to Politico, a senior Ukrainian military official dismissed the impact that the aircraft would now have on the war effort. ‘Often, we just don’t get the weapons systems at the time we need them – they come when they’re no longer relevant,’ the high-ranking official said. ‘Every weapon has its own right time. F-16s were needed in 2023; they won’t be right for 2024.’Volodymyr Zelensky first campaigned for the West to supply his country with the US-made aircraft in the summer of 2022. In what has become a regular refrain among Kyiv’s western allies, the request caused many months of hand-wringing and infighting, notably in Germany, where politicians feared that supplying the jets could lead to an escalation in the conflict. In the end, however, around 60 F-16s were pledged by Nato members, but with training timelines adding to the delays caused by the West’s initial hesitation, which is why the first aircraft will only be delivered to Ukraine this summer.
Now reliant on sourcing weapons from Iran and North Korea, as well as dipping into supplies left over from the Cold War, Russia has consistently, but successfully, been forced to play catch up to match the western weaponry Kyiv is using. As such, the Ukrainians fear that the jets may no longer be effective as Moscow has the capability to counter them. Instead, the official said what Ukraine needs are more traditional weapons and drones: ‘We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells and rockets.
Russia is expected to mount a major push in the coming months ahead of a summer offensive, after a recent surge in missile and drone strikes that have targeted Ukraine’s infrastructure. Among the weapons Ukraine wants are long-range Taurus missiles, capable of striking targets 310 miles away. With the West yet to make a conclusive decision on whether to send them, Ukraine may once again find itself in a race against the clock." [Spectator today]
All that Tutor time (taken from UASs I believe) in vain?
Now reliant on sourcing weapons from Iran and North Korea, as well as dipping into supplies left over from the Cold War, Russia has consistently, but successfully, been forced to play catch up to match the western weaponry Kyiv is using. As such, the Ukrainians fear that the jets may no longer be effective as Moscow has the capability to counter them. Instead, the official said what Ukraine needs are more traditional weapons and drones: ‘We need Howitzers and shells, hundreds of thousands of shells and rockets.
Russia is expected to mount a major push in the coming months ahead of a summer offensive, after a recent surge in missile and drone strikes that have targeted Ukraine’s infrastructure. Among the weapons Ukraine wants are long-range Taurus missiles, capable of striking targets 310 miles away. With the West yet to make a conclusive decision on whether to send them, Ukraine may once again find itself in a race against the clock." [Spectator today]
All that Tutor time (taken from UASs I believe) in vain?
Ukraine has no missiles capable of 1 200 km , so they obviously can't run out of them. Most likely is they were able to convert this craft to carry extra fuel for the distance and then add whatever weight of explosives was still possible.
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