Ukraine War Thread Part 2
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Good News, Ukraine have got their Raccoon back.
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BE AWARE If any you are involved in Ukrainian donations.
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Solovyev is threatening to send missiles to the Houthis to sink British and American shipping... I wonder where he is going to get them from considering Russia is having to beg for missiles for use in Ukraine?
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Canada is ready to pay for the delivery of 800,000 shells that the Czech Republic found for Ukraine
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said Monday that Ottawa is in talks with the Czechs.
He emphasized: "I have signed a memorandum of understanding with one of our European allies, the Czech Republic, regarding the possible acquisition of ammunition that they currently have in their possession, which will allow us ... to provide it to Ukraine more quickly as we increase our own production."
Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair said Monday that Ottawa is in talks with the Czechs.
He emphasized: "I have signed a memorandum of understanding with one of our European allies, the Czech Republic, regarding the possible acquisition of ammunition that they currently have in their possession, which will allow us ... to provide it to Ukraine more quickly as we increase our own production."
Russia ‘threatened to shoot down French aircraft over Black Sea’
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
Russia ‘threatened to shoot down French aircraft over Black Sea’
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
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They have been doing penetrations to test our airspace defence response for years... I would think it is simply the press trying to fill paper.
I don't know the nature of the 'mock attacks' being reported by the BBC, but if they are anything like the mock attacks the Russians staged against Sweden a few years ago in 2013 where multiple bombers and strike aircraft staged coordinated, low level and high speed runs close to Swedish airspace (in 2022 they went one better and entered Swedish airspace), they will be nothing like the one or two bombers that have cruised on the edge of UK airspace over the decades. Certainly worthy of press attention in the current climate.
Where are the Russian soldiers from, interesting analysis based on bank activity. Poor, uneducated and from remote areas from Moscows point of view. Not quite unlike the red army hordes of WW2.
Russia ‘threatened to shoot down French aircraft over Black Sea’
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
‘Aggressive behaviour’ is explained by the country’s difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine, France’s defence minister says
https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1760640862688534857?s=20
"Russian forces threatened to shoot down a French patrol plane over the Black Sea in a signal of increasingly hostile behaviour.On Thursday, Sébastien Lecornu, France’s defence minister, said that Russia is returning to a “particularly aggressive” posture reminiscent of the former Soviet Union during the Cold War. “A month ago, to give you a very concrete example, a Russian air traffic control system threatened to shoot down French aircraft in the Black Sea when we were in a free international zone where we patrol,” he said on RTL radio. “The behaviour of Russia in 2024 bears no relation to what we saw in 2022 and, obviously, before the aggression in Ukraine,” the minister said. “It is explained by the fact that Russia is in difficulty on the battlefield in Ukraine.”
French air force pilots regularly patrol on the eastern flank of Nato, part of efforts by the 31-nation military alliance to boost its defences since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine two years ago come Saturday. French flights include long-range patrols by its AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) surveillance aircraft. Stationed high above the Black Sea coast, they use their powerful radar and other monitoring gear to peer across to the Crimean Peninsula that was seized from Ukraine by Russia and annexed in 2014. This surveillance can spot missile launches, airborne bombing runs and other military activity in the Ukraine conflict.
Russian pilots have at times made clear that they do not like being watched. In 2022, a fighter jet released a missile near a Royal Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft that was flying in international airspace over the Black Sea, the UK Government said.
The United States government released video in March 2023 of a Russian fighter jet dumping fuel on a US Air Force surveillance drone. The drone crashed into the Black Sea.
Last winter the Russkies targeted electrical infrastructure in Ukraine but this winter we didn't see so much of that. Ukraine could have targeted Moscow's electrical system but didn't; I wonder if there was some back and forth with an agreement to both hold off. Pure speculation.
Where are the Russian soldiers from, interesting analysis based on bank activity. Poor, uneducated and from remote areas from Moscows point of view. Not quite unlike the red army hordes of WW2.
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1760358885339086853
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1760358885339086853
But yes Tuva and Buryatia looks about right. Poor sods. They never got a fair chance by Moscow.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...russian-hybrid
WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova
The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although that appears unlikely.
Putin will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation. ISW offers this assessment as a warning for a high-impact event of indetermined probability.
Moldovan government officials state that the situation in Moldova is unlikely to worsen as of February 22…..
Tripwire
The Transnistrian government on February 21 unexpectedly announced that the situation in Transnistria “has deteriorated sharply since January 1, 2024,” and that it has decided to convene a previously unplanned Congress of Deputies in Tiraspol on February 28.
The Transnistrian government accused the Moldovan government of “destroying” Transnistria’s economy, Moldovan officials of “violating human rights and freedoms in Transnistria,” and unspecified actors of exercising “external political and economic pressure” against Transnistria, which, it claims, has sharply worsened conditions for “socially vulnerable segments of [Transnistria’s] population.”
The Transnistrian Congress of Deputies rarely convenes, and its last meeting was in March 2006, when it decided to hold the referendum to join Russia and not reunify with Moldova later that year.
A prominent Transnistrian opposition activist warned on February 21 that the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies will ask the Russian Federation to annex Transnistria on February 28.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver his annual state of the nation address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29 and could use that forum to address any announcements made by the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies…..
Forecast
The Transnistrian Congress of Deputies will likely either initiate a new referendum seeking annexation by Russia or propose or demand action on the 2006 referendum it has already staged.
Putin will likely welcome whatever actions the Congress of Deputies takes, although he may stop short of acting on a request for immediate annexation if the Congress makes such a request…..
Russian military intervention would be challenging for Moscow since Moldova (and Transnistria) is landlocked and accessible only through Romanian or Ukrainian territory. The Russian forces currently in Transnistria are not capable of posing a meaningful military threat to Ukraine without reinforcements….
The most likely course of action, therefore, is that the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies and Putin’s speech will mark an inflection in Russian preparations for hybrid warfare against Moldova, possibly intended to set conditions for an imminent political crisis.
The most dangerous course of action appears at the moment to be a Transnistrian request for annexation followed by Russian action to annex the territory. This course of action appears unlikely at this time…..
WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova
The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although that appears unlikely.
Putin will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation. ISW offers this assessment as a warning for a high-impact event of indetermined probability.
Moldovan government officials state that the situation in Moldova is unlikely to worsen as of February 22…..
Tripwire
The Transnistrian government on February 21 unexpectedly announced that the situation in Transnistria “has deteriorated sharply since January 1, 2024,” and that it has decided to convene a previously unplanned Congress of Deputies in Tiraspol on February 28.
The Transnistrian government accused the Moldovan government of “destroying” Transnistria’s economy, Moldovan officials of “violating human rights and freedoms in Transnistria,” and unspecified actors of exercising “external political and economic pressure” against Transnistria, which, it claims, has sharply worsened conditions for “socially vulnerable segments of [Transnistria’s] population.”
The Transnistrian Congress of Deputies rarely convenes, and its last meeting was in March 2006, when it decided to hold the referendum to join Russia and not reunify with Moldova later that year.
A prominent Transnistrian opposition activist warned on February 21 that the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies will ask the Russian Federation to annex Transnistria on February 28.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will deliver his annual state of the nation address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29 and could use that forum to address any announcements made by the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies…..
Forecast
The Transnistrian Congress of Deputies will likely either initiate a new referendum seeking annexation by Russia or propose or demand action on the 2006 referendum it has already staged.
Putin will likely welcome whatever actions the Congress of Deputies takes, although he may stop short of acting on a request for immediate annexation if the Congress makes such a request…..
Russian military intervention would be challenging for Moscow since Moldova (and Transnistria) is landlocked and accessible only through Romanian or Ukrainian territory. The Russian forces currently in Transnistria are not capable of posing a meaningful military threat to Ukraine without reinforcements….
The most likely course of action, therefore, is that the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies and Putin’s speech will mark an inflection in Russian preparations for hybrid warfare against Moldova, possibly intended to set conditions for an imminent political crisis.
The most dangerous course of action appears at the moment to be a Transnistrian request for annexation followed by Russian action to annex the territory. This course of action appears unlikely at this time…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Looks like a MiG-29 fighter jet was sent to Ukraine today from across the Polish border.
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