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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 22nd Jul 2023, 22:54
  #3101 (permalink)  
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A major weapons and fuel depot struck in Crimea.

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Old 22nd Jul 2023, 22:58
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Originally Posted by fitliker
The Turks offered to protect the grain ships last week . What changed ?
The Turks have the largest navy , army and Air Force in the area . Did they just lose their bottle ?

It was not a real thing, never saw anything official, just everyone quoting the same rubbish twitter post
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 00:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
A major weapons and fuel depot struck in Crimea.
​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...92583921688577
In case anybody wants to see where this town is (Oktyabrske), it's at 45° 17.091'N 34° 7.923'E.

Which is south of Krasnohvardiiske, not northwest of Krasnohvardiiske as Google tries to direct you.
There's an air force base there which no doubt is where the ammo dump was at.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 01:15
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No words..

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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 01:36
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This is rather good, Flash is doing daily news summaries about what is happening.

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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 01:41
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Crimean rail appears to be suspended…

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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 01:58
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They have hit the Cathedral in Odesa amongst other targets.


Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd Jul 2023 at 08:57.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 02:10
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Originally Posted by Sfojimbo
In case anybody wants to see where this town is (Oktyabrske), it's at 45° 17.091'N 34° 7.923'E.

Which is south of Krasnohvardiiske, not northwest of Krasnohvardiiske as Google tries to direct you.
There's an air force base there which no doubt is where the ammo dump was at.

Thanks, more on it, they must have people operating deep behind the lines.

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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 02:37
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This is an interesting read from a Reserve officer.


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In the past, I wrote about challenges that our troops were facing near Bakhmut. I received criticism from both compatriots and foreign supporters of our country for saying it, but I turned out to be right about it. Regrettably, we remain in a state of ongoing uncertainty, with neither clear victories nor losses. What saddens me further is our tendency to shift blame onto our allies and partners, instead of acknowledging our own recurring mistakes.
​​​​​​​Series of recent statements and interviews from various officials who were disrespectful and condescending of the NATO and the West in general, when things didn't go as well as anticipated.
Reply to him

​​​​​​​personally take such criticisms as a sign that everyone is under a lot of stress & strain and that we're not paying as much attention to the niceties as we might ordinarily want. It's fine. There's a war going on. The time for politeness is after we've kicked the Russians out.
​​​​​​​Unless we do something radically different, including serious changes inside of Ukraine, we won't kick russians out. I hate to say it, but that's the reality
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​​​​​​​Just slow it down a bit. F-16's on the way!
​​​​​​​That's the problem. F-16 is not some wunderwaffe which will change the course of war. Neither are Bradley's or Leos. I am talking about internal changes and adopting more bottom-up approach rather than top-down approach. We have more Soviet mindset now than we did in 2022
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 05:36
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Good news on the Gepard front.


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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 06:58
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After all the negotiations, a repair centre-for Leo tanks has been opened in the Bumar factory (close to Katowice ) in Poland, announced by the Polish Defence Minister , Mariusz Blaszczak. The first tanks for repair have already been received.

Reparaturzentrum für Leopard-Panzer in Polen geht in Betrieb

Ein von Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius (SPD) angemahntes Reparaturzentrum in Polen für an die Ukraine gelieferte Leopard-Panzer ist fertiggestellt und in Betrieb genommen worden. Das gab der polnische Verteidigungsminister Mariusz Blaszczak am Samstagabend bekannt. Die ersten beiden Leopard sind bereits aus der Ukraine im Bumar-Werk eingetroffen", schrieb der nationalkonservative Minister am Samstag auf

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._72885571.html

Re: Gepard

Obviously any supplies are good news, but those numbers seem very low: less than 800 rounds per system this year. Unless the guns are so effective that a burst of three or four shells destroys the target, that will be exhausted very quickly. From memory there was a Norwegian company that was supposed to supply last year, but there were (initial ? ) problems matching the ammo to the guns ( software ? ). Does anyone know what happened subsequently ?

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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 07:49
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Meanwhile in Russia: appearing on state TV, retired Colonel Konstantin Sivkov, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, suggested blowing up the North Pole if that's what it takes to teach the West a lesson.


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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 09:11
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What pains me most about all this, is the West's failure to stand by the "Security Guarantees" that encouraged UKR to give up it's Nukes. Morally NATO et al should go in and sort this all out properly - well should have done well before the invasion started.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 09:32
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Everybody hoped for no war with Russia. But the more the west would yield (and be considered weak for doing it by Russia it seems) the more Russia would want to take. This is the lesson learned the hard way.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 09:44
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Everybody hoped for no war with Russia. But the more the west would yield (and be considered weak for doing it by Russia it seems) the more Russia would want to take. This is the lesson learned the hard way.
The lesson was supposed to have been learned in 1939
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 09:45
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This thread on team-Putin's efforts to keep the home political scene under control is worth a read

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...884500482.html
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 10:03
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Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
What pains me most about all this, is the West's failure to stand by the "Security Guarantees" that encouraged UKR to give up it's Nukes. Morally NATO et al should go in and sort this all out properly - well should have done well before the invasion started.
Fully concur. The west gave assurances to Ukraine for the disarmament of their nuclear weapons, and the West parses the assurance post hoc with the same cynicism as Bill Clinton trying to weasel around what "is" is.

Everything since 2014 and the weak kneed response at that time, to the handwringing on providing adequate armament for the Ukrainians to defend themselves before their citizens have bled out in the field is what we in the West and the "Free World" consider that we are doing the righteous thing... by tying their hands behind their backs, and hoping that they don't all bleed out inconveniently early such that perish the thought, Western troop boots might have to go into the breach to stop a criminal.

As far as nuking the North Pole, Russia has done that numerous times, including AN602, "Tsar Bomba", @ Novaya Zemlya, in October '61. (50MT). That Russia can destroy itself is self evident, just look at their vodka consumption and healthy lifestyle, why so many people clamour to be Russians... So nuuuuking the North Pole does exactly what? Apart from add more radiation to the northern wastes of our blue planet? The bits mainly where Russians choose to live? Now, Tsar Bomba at 50MT was ruffly 5o times the energy that is needed to melt 50km square of ice 100' thick. Assuming that the energy is absorbed totally by the ice, which it ain't. What you get is a very Big Bang, lots of flash, bang and a ringing in your ears, but not much else of interest. Except for fall out. The high pressure around the pole won't take kindly to being burped at by Vlad, so you can expect the stuff to metaphorically hit the fan, as it has every time before, and that ends up plonking onto Russia mainly. But not all. It will fall on Canada, (a NATO country) USA (a NATO country) Norway, Finland, Sweden, UK, Denmark, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, (all NATO countries) That is already stated plainly as being an Article 5 trigger event... dumping nuke doo doo on the rest of the world won't assist Vlad having time to calculate his drop from 6 stories to planet earth.

As far as dumb things go, nuke Santa Claus is not really up there in the smart things to do. Will it affect the ionosphere? I would doubt that my HF radios will get much apart from direct path for a little while, but the diminutive Vlad will still end up as a blood stain under a window at the hands of his own team for smoking their families for free. Will save on vodka bills though. Lada sales will go down as there won't be much need for them.

[ a MT is about 4PJ, 4x10^15J not far from a TWhr] Ice is about... 2.1kJ/Kg per degree C specific heat.





By https://web.archive.org/web/20080518...tsarbomba.html (photograph belongs to Russian department of Atomic Energy Minatom), Fair use, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16874908
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 10:04
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If Putin [and other dictators] can't control the Media 100%, they will always have trouble.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 10:15
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Meanwhile in Russia: appearing on state TV, retired Colonel Konstantin Sivkov, Deputy President of the Russian Academy of Rocket and Artillery Sciences, suggested blowing up the North Pole if that's what it takes to teach the West a lesson.

Well his logic is flawed, if Nuclear weapons assures Russian territory from invasion then Belogrod and the surrounding areas disproved his logic.
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Old 23rd Jul 2023, 11:07
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well his logic is flawed, if Nuclear weapons assures Russian territory from invasion then Belogrod and the surrounding areas disproved his logic.
Agreed. There's a much cheaper way for Russia to avoid invasion, in fact it'd actually be cashflow-positive.
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