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Moskva down

Old 20th Apr 2022, 11:08
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
I and others have commented on social media that Russia could quite easily - and credibly - implicated NATO in the sinking. The fact that they didn't even hint at this speaks volumes.
Indeed.

Perhaps Putin is certain that NATO assisted in the sinking of Moskva but outright stating so would require him to respond in some form, something that it's increasingly obvious Russia would be ill-equipped to do?

This would also tie in with the increasing 'freedom' NATO countries are exploiting to provide Ukraine with larger and more potent weapon systems. Russia keeps making noise about "consequences" but what can Russia realistically do?
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 11:20
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Given the performance of the Russian armed forces against Ukraine over the past 8 weeks, and their attrition rates, it is pretty obvious that for Putin to declare war on NATO (deliberately attacking any 1 NATO state amounts to the same thing), then the resultant defeat would be far reaching and inevitable. Sure, NATO forces would suffer some significant losses, but Russia would be forced to evacuate all the territory they have claimed, including all of East Ukraine and Crimea, and end up with zero military capability. Their only alternative would be to start a MAD WW3. Would the chain of command 'break down' if the order was given?

Not going to happen.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 11:26
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Originally Posted by WillFlyForCheese View Post
I would have thought, at most, a NATO surveillance plane would have located her.
Why be so obvious when there are probably an endless stream of satellites covering the region ?
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 11:38
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Originally Posted by B Fraser View Post
Why be so obvious when there are probably an endless stream of satellites covering the region ?
The aircrafts in question pick up a bit more information than a satellite does. Especially if there is a cloud layer.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:16
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
There was a concentration of NATO ISR effort along the very eastern edge of Romania in the days prior to the attack on the Moskva (as discussed on various spotter blogs). My working assumption at the time was that 'we' were trying to get a handle on events in eastern Ukraine, but who knows?

That said, Moskva's whereabouts would have have been relatively easy to determine, given that it is one enormous radio/radar emitter.

What is intriguing is the deployment of six USN EA-18G into Poland a few weeks ago. Why these particular aircraft, given the USAF have their own EW assets? USN keen to get in on the action, or maybe they have some specific capabilities useful for engagements with Russian naval vessels?

I and others have commented on social media that Russia could quite easily - and credibly - implicated NATO in the sinking. The fact that they didn't even hint at this speaks volumes.
The USAF currently has no deployable tactical EW assts. They are in the process of standing up a unit. Currently they use the Growlers by agreement.

The USAF has been without a dedicated electronic warfare aircraft since it retired the General Dynamics EF-111A Raven in 1998. Instead, the service has relied on the US Navy’s (USN’s) Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler and most recently the Boeing EA-18G Growler via the Joint Airborne Electronic Attack Program. As part of that joint effort, personnel from the USAF’s 390th Electronic Combat Squadron are based at NAS Whidbey Island in Washington State.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:17
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Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker View Post
This would also tie in with the increasing 'freedom' NATO countries are exploiting to provide Ukraine with larger and more potent weapon systems. Russia keeps making noise about "consequences" but what can Russia realistically do?
Maybe Moskva was a test to see how the Russians responded? If they bleat a bit, we'll reign back in a bit, if not, lets up the ante.

Also, the missile blitz the Russians unleashed in response to this 'non-provocation' (in their eyes, at least publicly) has given the West the perfect excuse to ramp up supplies of AD weaponry and aircraft spares. Russia seems to be outplayed at every turn.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:20
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Originally Posted by Sailvi767 View Post
The USAF currently has no deployable tactical EW assts. They are in the process of standing up a unit. Currently they use the Growlers by agreement.

The USAF has been without a dedicated electronic warfare aircraft since it retired the General Dynamics EF-111A Raven in 1998. Instead, the service has relied on the US Navy’s (USN’s) Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler and most recently the Boeing EA-18G Growler via the Joint Airborne Electronic Attack Program. As part of that joint effort, personnel from the USAF’s 390th Electronic Combat Squadron are based at NAS Whidbey Island in Washington State.
Ok thanks. As conspiracy theories go I thought it had some legs....
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:31
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Originally Posted by Sailvi767 View Post
The USAF currently has no deployable tactical EW assts. They are in the process of standing up a unit. Currently they use the Growlers by agreement.

The USAF has been without a dedicated electronic warfare aircraft since it retired the General Dynamics EF-111A Raven in 1998. Instead, the service has relied on the US Navy’s (USN’s) Northrop Grumman EA-6B Prowler and most recently the Boeing EA-18G Growler via the Joint Airborne Electronic Attack Program. As part of that joint effort, personnel from the USAF’s 390th Electronic Combat Squadron are based at NAS Whidbey Island in Washington State.
I don’t suppose you could call the EC130 Compass Call a “tactical” EW aircraft but it performs much the same role as the growler.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:53
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Originally Posted by Fitter2 View Post
Given the performance of the Russian armed forces against Ukraine over the past 8 weeks, and their attrition rates, it is pretty obvious that for Putin to declare war on NATO (deliberately attacking any 1 NATO state amounts to the same thing), then the resultant defeat would be far reaching and inevitable. Sure, NATO forces would suffer some significant losses, but Russia would be forced to evacuate all the territory they have claimed, including all of East Ukraine and Crimea, and end up with zero military capability. Their only alternative would be to start a MAD WW3. Would the chain of command 'break down' if the order was given?

Not going to happen.
The wild cards would be the opportunity for the Disasterstans to change their client state status with Russia. The Moldovans may have a bit of a say with Transnistria as well if Russia really gets a major defeat through their dissaray and depleted arms. I cannot see why anyone wants to have a piece of Russia, sure G.U.M. was worth a visit, the underground was, meh, antique, St Basils is neat. The Kremlin is not a great bit of architecture, not like.... Dubrovnik, Ljubljana castle, Barokna Kabija, Halászbástya, Schloss Stolzenfels, Kölner Dom, Il Duomo, Rovinj, Arienzo. In fact, Moscow was about as inviting as Mangakino. Half of Russia is set up to grow the staples to make Vodka, and the other half of the country is the reason you need Vodka. Except for St Petersburg, that is speshul. Otherwise, don't see why anyone wants to invade Russia proper unless to get a T-Shirt saying "I went to Norilsk, and it is the most depressing city in the world". The paradox of Russia is the people are in fact warm, while stuck in a cold, inhospitable dangerous country, and that isn't talking about the weather, that is just the incumbents of the Kremlin. Russian literature is often described as being depressive, or just sad, but Vladimir Nabokov maintained that Chekhov wrote “sad books for humorous people”, because “only a reader with a sense of humor can truly appreciate their sadness”. Dostoevsky, Pasternak, Tolstoy, etc make you wish to lose your own sight, so you would have a great excuse to be so depressed by reading the stories. (I think Victor Hugo was Russian at heart). Yet, Russia gave the world Andre Sakharov, and that counts for something (the USA gave the world Edward Teller, and listening to him give a graduation speech was the most horrifying moment of my life). Sure the rest of the world gets sad, William Golding, Khaled Hosseini, Ian McEwan, Kazuo Ishiguro, etc..., all should be honorary Russians.


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Old 20th Apr 2022, 12:56
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What would be credible exit scenarios for the Russian government to end this war without losing face?
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 13:08
  #351 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
There was a concentration of NATO ISR effort along the very eastern edge of Romania in the days prior to the attack on the Moskva (as discussed on various spotter blogs). My working assumption at the time was that 'we' were trying to get a handle on events in eastern Ukraine, but who knows?

That said, Moskva's whereabouts would have have been relatively easy to determine, given that it is one enormous radio/radar emitter.

What is intriguing is the deployment of six USN EA-18G into Poland a few weeks ago. Why these particular aircraft, given the USAF have their own EW assets? USN keen to get in on the action, or maybe they have some specific capabilities useful for engagements with Russian naval vessels?

I and others have commented on social media that Russia could quite easily - and credibly - implicated NATO in the sinking. The fact that they didn't even hint at this speaks volumes.
In the middle of the pond, with no surface threat worth a damn, wondering why they would not have emcon in force. What would they be radiating for? just curious. As soon as they radiate on the topsail etc, they are able to be identified and triangulated, and even in a presumed low threat environment, they would not have a pressing reason to break emcon. Unless things have changed since the days we did that sort of stuff. I can imagine they would radiate the palm frond intermittently, at least in sector scans, but beyond that, what was the benefit to them, unless they knew that there was a specific threat. The story of the prior days events may give a reason for that, but golly, anything beyond a random search transmission would be asking for a bad day. May have some bias on that, my recollection from chasing boomers at the end of the cold war was the USSR boat drivers were pretty good, their rides were noisy, and the skimmers were happy to track us with their weapons at all times, they seemed quite competent then, prone to sunbathing on the fantail.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 13:16
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
What would be credible exit scenarios for the Russian government to end this war without losing face?
Sending Putin to:
  1. Lefortovo,
  2. Госуда́рственный нау́чный центр социа́льной и суде́бной психиатри́и им. В. П. Се́рбского, or
  3. the "St Petersburg Caviar Repository".
That'll do it. Beware who takes over afterward though, the next 100 cabs off the rank also come from the same place. If they installed Navalny they could get sanctions removed pretty quickly, but he is always going to be a target from the former KGB mafia.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 13:20
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
What would be credible exit scenarios for the Russian government to end this war without losing face?
I don't think that there is one. The loss of face has already occurred.
The more practical question is what degree of, or level of, sanctions relief will be achievable via negotiations once a cease fire is arranged?
(And that will eventually come to pass, hopefully sooner than later).
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 13:23
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
What would they be radiating for? just curious.
Well, maybe the canny Ukrainians put up a TB2 in the area every night or so to keep them honest?

Given the lax conduct of almost every branch of the Russia mil, I wouldn't at all surprised if they didn't bother with emcon ("we're an invincible carrier killer - Ukraine doesn't pose any threat to us!")
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 15:21
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As enlightenment goes this thread about a current ' war ' situation and supposed Western assets in the area, is this a case of ' walls have ears ' ??
I'm sure nothing on here will be ' News ' to the Russians, but are we sure?
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 15:39
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Let’s hope they do not read the papers !!
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news...utm_medium=RSS
Print
By Mike Glenn - The Washington Times - Wednesday, April 20, 2022A U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft was reportedly tracking the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet on April 13 in the hours before it was hit by Ukrainian forces.

The British Daily Mail newspaper reported that the Navy’s P-8 Poseidon was providing targeting data to Ukrainian forces, making it possible for them to fire a pair of Neptune missiles at the guided-missile cruiser Moskva while it was patrolling south of Odesa.

The Kremlin initially claimed the damage to the Moskva was the result of an onboard explosion caused by a fire. The warship later sank as it was being towed back to Russia-controlled Crimea for repairs.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 16:03
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Originally Posted by fitliker View Post
Let’s hope they do not read the papers !!.



They certainly don't read their own papers.

What is needed is a whole bunch of empty B737s to do circuits of the Black Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, off North Cape etc, to just add to the fun quotient of the Russians. They do that and they don't expect others to do it back?

For what it's worth the 12" GWX-70 will pick up the same size target at 60nm, and you can add that to a Cessna Caravan. Plonk in a whole bunch of turtle packs, and pack a lunch and lots of coffee. There is some really neat synthetic aperture sidescan radar systems that can be strapped to the same clunker, and that will give a photo-realistic image in real-time with L/L, COG/SOG etc. not going to be great at avoiding power poles when they get launched, but still there's a lot of the Black sea to deny from the Russians. Great for hour building. bring a parachute and an immersion suit.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 16:10
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Originally Posted by Kiltrash View Post
As enlightenment goes this thread about a current ' war ' situation and supposed Western assets in the area, is this a case of ' walls have ears ' ??
I'm sure nothing on here will be ' News ' to the Russians, but are we sure?
Are you suggesting that WW3 may be declared because of what someone said on PPRuNe? Wouldn't be the first time. .
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 16:30
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Originally Posted by fdr View Post
In the middle of the pond, with no surface threat worth a damn, wondering why they would not have emcon in force. What would they be radiating for? just curious. As soon as they radiate on the topsail etc, they are able to be identified and triangulated, and even in a presumed low threat environment, they would not have a pressing reason to break emcon. Unless things have changed since the days we did that sort of stuff. I can imagine they would radiate the palm frond intermittently, at least in sector scans, but beyond that, what was the benefit to them, unless they knew that there was a specific threat. The story of the prior days events may give a reason for that, but golly, anything beyond a random search transmission would be asking for a bad day. May have some bias on that, my recollection from chasing boomers at the end of the cold war was the USSR boat drivers were pretty good, their rides were noisy, and the skimmers were happy to track us with their weapons at all times, they seemed quite competent then, prone to sunbathing on the fantail.
The whole point of the Russians putting a floating S300 battery with its radars & etc in that location is to emit like crazy, and shoot down everything they can reach over Ukraine or coming out of Ukraine. The Moskva gave the Russians coverage that they could not get from any other naval asset*, or from any available (non-threatened) shore location. The downside of being an emitter is that triangulation is a thing. And then somebody gets a precise ID and more accurate location and bad things happen.

* The other Russian vessels have much shorter range anti-air missile systems and associated radars. There is basically now a very significant hole in the Russian coverage that I am sure is receiving attention by all sorts of people.
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Old 20th Apr 2022, 16:40
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Just want to publicly acknowledge fdr's PM to me. Very informative
Thanks fdr
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