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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 8th Apr 2021, 16:21
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FAA warning to American carriers....
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Old 8th Apr 2021, 17:10
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Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?
I'd just note that the Kiev government said explicitly that they wanted to get rid of their Russian speaking minority and passed laws prohibiting Russian language teaching in the majority Russian speaking areas.
Seceding from a government that wants to get rid of you does not seem illegitimate to me.
More generally, it is dubious I think to make a big 'international law' argument, the Soviet Union shifted internal boundaries quite arbitrarily, so they are not necessarily sensible.
We've seen from the Yugoslavia experience how desperately ugly rationalizing the mess can become, even in a small patch. The Ukraine is big, a much larger mess looms.
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Old 8th Apr 2021, 21:59
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https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-new...plode-23879639

Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into war in days as UK commanders on 'high alert'

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could explode into all-out war within days after Moscow amassed close to 100,000 troops at the flashpoint border, it was feared last night.

Senior Ukraine military sources fear Moscow’s war-planners may have wrong-footed Kiev by being far more battle-ready for a major land and sea attack than previously suspected.

Until recently Ukraine’s senior commanders calculated that if Putin orders an attack deep into East Ukraine and elsewhere it was most likely to come in mid-May. But today Putin’s navy piled on further pressure on embattled Kiev by announcing the deployment of a war-fighting fleet towards Ukraine arriving within days.

Last night sources told the Daily Mirror UK senior commanders and Whitehall officials are on “high alert” over the crisis and are monitoring the situation “with growing concern.”......

More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.

Russia’s Defence Ministry announced it was moving more than ten navy vessels, including landing boats and artillery warships to the Black Sea to take part in exercises......
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Old 8th Apr 2021, 22:03
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This on the BBC,

Ukraine conflict: Moscow could 'defend' Russia-backed rebels - BBC News

Time for the UK government to re-print the Protect and Survive leaflets from the 1980s?.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 01:21
  #45 (permalink)  
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@ORAC: this won't end well. ((NotAsAMod) You might want to check your sources more carefully).
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
More than ten heavily-armed Russian warships are now steaming towards the Caspian Sea from the Black Sea, armed with artillery and other weapons to back Putin’s land forces.
1. If true, they are headed away from Ukraine
2. They'll need to travel overland to get there. (The Caspian Sea from the Black Sea)
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 06:07
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Originally Posted by T28B View Post
@ORAC: this won't end well. ((NotAsAMod) You might want to check your sources more carefully).

1. If true, they are headed away from Ukraine
2. They'll need to travel overland to get there. (The Caspian Sea from the Black Sea)
I was just reading that and thought the same.

I know there is a project that allows a sea faring link between the Caspian and Black seas but is it fully capable of allowing warships to pass through? In any case, they’re still steaming away rather than to the Black Sea!

lazy reporting.

Last edited by Toadstool; 9th Apr 2021 at 06:25.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 06:59
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Originally Posted by Toadstool View Post
I was just reading that and thought the same.

I know there is a project that allows a sea faring link between the Caspian and Black seas but is it fully capable of allowing warships to pass through? In any case, they’re still steaming away rather than to the Black Sea!

lazy reporting.
They want to use the rivers to connect the two seas, therefore warships will not be capable of using it. Your smaller riverine or littoral class vessels will be able to use it though.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 07:07
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For a great perspective on the current events, search and read the letters/memorandums sent to the US government by the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity. This one in particular: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity on Avoiding War in Ukraine.

At least there are some sane voices out there and I hope they will get heard.

I will say again Russia will not attack first, they are not as stupid as hollywood has proclaimed for how many years now.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 07:27
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
I'd just note that the Kiev government said explicitly that they wanted to get rid of their Russian speaking minority and passed laws prohibiting Russian language teaching in the majority Russian speaking areas.
Seceding from a government that wants to get rid of you does not seem illegitimate to me.
More generally, it is dubious I think to make a big 'international law' argument, the Soviet Union shifted internal boundaries quite arbitrarily, so they are not necessarily sensible.
We've seen from the Yugoslavia experience how desperately ugly rationalizing the mess can become, even in a small patch. The Ukraine is big, a much larger mess looms.
For what it's worth I have been to Odesa and spend quite a lot of time talking to Russian-speaking Ukranians there. It's a sample-size of 2 really so not representative at all but I think it's interesting because it shows that there is another point of view. Their attitude is that Russia and Ukraine have a lot in common and that it's ridiculous that this situation should have arisen but it's Russia's fault and they should get out. They think Russian speakers in Ukraine are less and less sympathetic to Russia as this bullshit situation goes on. Both of them did military service and there's no question at all whose side they're on.

My own worthless personal opinion is that Ukraine is modernising - these guys work in the IT industry for example and lots of American companies are making good use of them. The west, meaning NATO, will experience a great reverse in it's general fortunes, its respect, the trust other nations have in it etc etc if it lets them slip into the night.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 08:21
  #50 (permalink)  
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https://www.janes.com/defence-news/n...order-by-janes

Russian Ground Troop Units and Iskander ballistic missiles identified at Ukrainian border by Janes

Janes has identified at least fourteen Russian Ground Troop units that have moved or are moving to the Ukrainian area of operations since late March through open-source intelligence.

Janes has identified an influx of Central Military District troops from the 74th and 35th Motorised Brigades, 120th Artillery Brigade and the 6th Tank Regiment, equipped with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and long-range artillery including 2S19 MSTA-S 152 mm self-propelled guns, TOS-1A thermobaric multiple rocket launchers (MRLs), and BM-27 Uragan 220 mm MRLs entering Voronezh by train.

Janes has also identified the deployment of Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems, likely belonging to the 119 Missile Brigade, to Voronezh from the Sverdlovsk region.

A staging area has been established at a training ground south of Voronezh city equipped with P-260T Redut-2US long-range telecommunications complexes and a field hospital. The P-260T Redut-2US is a long-range army-level communications system that is not used at the battalion or brigade level, it is indicative of the scale of the deployment.

Crimea and the neighbouring Krasnodar regions have seen a similar build-up of troops and equipment including BMP-3 IFVs and 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled mortars. This time coming from Southern Military District units stationed hundreds of kilometres away in the southern and western Caucasus.....

While Russia’s intentions are still unclear, this movement stands out as possibly the largest unannounced movement of troops since Russia’s invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2015. Video footage shows trains carrying Russian troops are still heading to the area of operations, with some according to the freight tracking service GdeVagon not scheduled to arrive in Crimea until mid-April.

Current indicators suggest it is unlikely the forces deployed to the border are in an offensive posture. But this could change if Russia continues to move forces to the Ukrainian border.

Janes has identified the movement of army air defence systems into the Voronezh region, which have not been observed with prior movements. While there is a strategic air defence unit based in Crimea, there had been no clear indications that tactical air defence assets were being transported to match the armoured forces that had been deployed prior to this.

Furthermore, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced the Black Sea Fleet would be reinforced with 10 landing and artillery vessels from the Caspian Flotilla, as part of the ongoing control check exercises.

This is not a common occurrence and was not even seen during the Southern Military District’s district level exercise Kavkaz-2020 last summer. Additionally, two Black Sea Fleet landing ships are believed to be operating in the Mediterranean Sea and could easily join the Black Sea Fleet....
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 10:07
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Article and map in The Times.
Ukraine fears attack as Putin masses tanks close to border

Russia has moved troops, tanks and heavy artillery to a new base about 150 miles from the Ukrainian border, stoking fears of a military offensive.

It is thought to be Russia’s biggest show of force in the area since 2015, when Ukraine and Kremlin-backed separatists signed a peace deal to end fighting in the eastern Donbass region. At least ten Ukrainian personnel have died during a recent rise in hostilities.

Ruslan Khomchak, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said last week that Russia had amassed 25,000 troops in the border regions of Bryansk, Rostov and Voronezh, as well as in Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.


Russia has expressed concerns about a potential Ukrainian assault on separatist-held territories within its borders. A senior Kremlin official warned yesterday that any attack could lead to the destruction of Ukraine as an independent state. “This would be the beginning of the end of Ukraine,” Dmitri Kozak, deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration, said.

Kozak said Russia could move to protect its citizens in Donbass if Ukraine tries to recapture the breakaway regions. Moscow has handed out at least 200,000 Russian passports to residents of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic since 2019. It claims that any Russian servicemen in east Ukraine are “on vacation”.The newly deployed Russian forces are massing in a camp near the south-western city of Voronezh, according to images posted by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a Russian investigative group. Number plates indicate that the vehicles came from hundreds or even thousands of miles away.

The Voronezh region does not border either separatist-held territory, making it an implausible base for operations in Donbass. “It is obvious that the disposition of Russian forces, at least in the Voronezh region, is more offensive than defensive in nature,” the CIT said. (My italics)

President Putin told Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, in a phone call yesterday that Ukraine was inflaming tensions in the region. Moscow alleged this week that a Ukrainian army drone had killed a five-year-old boy in Donbass. Kiev denies responsibility; an official said the boy may have died after picking up an explosive device discarded by Russian-backed forces.

President Zelensky of Ukraine has urged Nato to admit his country quickly. The Kremlin warned on Tuesday that this would “aggravate” tensions.
"It claims that any Russian servicemen in east Ukraine are “on vacation”. Someone has retained their sense of humour...




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Old 9th Apr 2021, 10:56
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Funny folk story.

Two Ukrainians are sitting on a bench and drinking beer.

One says to the other:

- listen, Nikolai, we have such a dangerous situation in our country that if you hold a match, everything will explode.

Another answers:

- the match in the ass does not burn.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 10:58
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A good read here on how the armed forces are mainly for show and for moving in afterwards, but how Putin will again use Spetznaz for the actual de facto job from the inside, as in the Crimea.

https://www.georgetownjournalofinter...ight-look-like
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 11:27
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Seems ironic that Putin seemed to be happy with the status quo in Ukraine when Trump was in power, but almost the instant Joe took power things start to happen.

As I noted before, the tempo of eastbound surveillance flights hasn't really changed over the last few years. We even had a B52 deployment here early last year which flew several missions over Ukrainian territory, one right up to the nominal border with Crimea (using the callsign LeMay...)
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 11:38
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Nothing ironic about the Russian reaction to current events in Ukraine. Once Biden was in power, the war like rhetoric from Kiev increased. Their much anticipated spring offensive to retake Donbas. Zelensky signed a decree which defacto declared war on Russia and it is to this fact that Russia is responding.

In addition to this, such a buildup, would hopefully make Kiev think again, about their current misadventure and save countless lives, if war can be avoided.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 11:47
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Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
Nothing ironic about the Russian reaction to current events in Ukraine. Once Biden was in power, the war like rhetoric from Kiev increased. Their much anticipated spring offensive to retake Donbas. Zelensky signed a decree which defacto declared war on Russia and it is to this fact that Russia is responding.

In addition to this, such a buildup, would hopefully make Kiev think again, about their current misadventure and save countless lives, if war can be avoided.
But should war BE avoided? Russia has invaded a sovereign country. Surely it should be that countries moral obligation to do everything they can to reunite and retake their country?

You can listen to the arguments about how these people are ethnic Russians. But that doesn’t hold water. If they want to be Russian they can move to Russia. Taking the Crimea as a case in point, only 60% of the population were ethnic Russians, and only about 60-70% of those supported annexation so less than half the region wanted this.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 11:47
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On another point, what does the OSCE say about Russian forces in Ukraine? What have they said over the past years?

As far as I recall, their answer was no regular Russian military units were operating there.

Reminds me of Poroshenko, bleating about thousands of Russian tanks operating there. He seemed to not know what such an operation would look like.

The Minsk agreements don't place any requirements on Russia, apart from assuring that the Donbas republics do their part.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 11:52
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Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
But should war BE avoided? Russia has invaded a sovereign country. Surely it should be that countries moral obligation to do everything they can to reunite and retake their country?

You can listen to the arguments about how these people are ethnic Russians. But that doesn’t hold water. If they want to be Russian they can move to Russia. Taking the Crimea as a case in point, only 60% of the population were ethnic Russians, and only about 60-70% of those supported annexation so less than half the region wanted this.
War should always be avoided. It is the last resort, when everything else has failed.

I think your percentages are bit off, in the long run, the better check would be to see what the population of Crimea have to say today. After several years back with the Federation.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 13:02
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You mean after several years of the native Tartars being oppressed, persecuted, imprisoned and/or fleeing?

As for no Russian troops being in Ukraine - there are copious proofs of their presence, both as men in grey and as mercenaries as well as their equipment - to mention a certain airliner being shot down just as a particularly callous war crime fir which Putin and his cronies are responsible.
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Old 9th Apr 2021, 14:22
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Once again what does OSCE and Minsk agreements say about Russian military in Ukraine?

MSM shouting that some video, shot somewhere shows Russians in Ukraine is not evidence in todays information space. It is information war and he who controls the narrative, controls the "truth".

MH17 falls under the same narrative control. When you include the country, which should be a suspect, in the panel and exclude the country which owns the aircraft in question, then you should think why. How many years after the fact and nothing which will really shed light on the matter has been made public, ie. ATC tapes, CVR etc.

As for the Tartars, I have only seen action taken against them when laws were broken. But in search of the truth, I will have a look this weekend and see what is said about them.
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