Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 4th Apr 2021, 21:17
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,047
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Iím aware of the bridge - and Russia stopping Ukrainian and other shipping going under it in contravention of the right of free passage (The crews just having been freed) - but bridges can be cut, which is why a land bridge is preferable. And of course preferable if you want to link to Moldova and limit Ukrainian access to the sea.

One of the reasons why Crimea is mainly inhabited by ethnic Russians is because of the ethnic cleansing by deportation of the native Crimean Tartars started by Stalin in 1944, continued by the policy of detartarization under Khrushchev in 1956 and continued oppression and suppression under Putin.

The seizure of Crimea, of course, having been condemned by the UN and is unrecognised except for other Russian client states such as Cuba, Syria and Venezuela.
All good wars start with plausible claims on the various sides.
Here we have the Crimea, where Russia spent a lot of blood in the 1850s and the 1940s, reassigned to the Ukraine by Khrushchev, a native Ukrainian, while all were part of the USSR in the 1950s.
Then we have collapse of the USSR and the rise of the CIS, then the Maidan revolt spnsored by Ms Victoria ( F*** the EU) Nuland, at a cost of $5B according to some intercepts of her discussions.
Later the Ukrainian leader Ms. Tymoshenko was recorded stating that she would like to get rid of her Russian minority(30% of the people).and chose to outlaw Russian language teaching in elementary schools.
The Donbass revolt soon followed, plus the popular vote for returning the Crimea to Russia.
So now we have a civil war, in an artificial country ruled by a deeply corrupt elite held hostage to foreign paymasters, with one side supported by another country also ruled by a deeply corrupt elite, albeit with local roots.
A happy playground for the various spooks and influence peddlers, at the expense of the people trying to survive there.
In retrospect, perhaps we should bring back the Hapsburgs, they were a lot less bloody minded and no more incompetent.
etudiant is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 05:59
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Near the Black Sea
Age: 45
Posts: 22
The art of civil discourse is long lost.

One part that is missing here, is that Ukraine has been speaking of and planning their spring offensive on Donbas for several months and have been actively moving their military units into position. Which is in contravention of the Minsk agreements and add to this more belligerent words of retaking Crimea by force. This puts us squarely where we are now, a military response from Russia.

This response is now being used by the west to paint Ukraine as the victim, instead of the instigator.

If Ukraine had delivered on their requirements under the Minsk agreements, we would not have the current situation. Peace would reign in the region and people could get back to living normally.
Aegis8 is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 11:08
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Warwick
Posts: 184
Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the stand off between Russia and Ukraine, they would be crazy to start a fight they are going to loose. Biden might have family contacts there, getting involved in Russiaís backyard is a really bad idea, Putin might be loosing popularity, defending National interests will put him right back at the top of the polls.
Deltasierra010 is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 11:27
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Near the Black Sea
Age: 45
Posts: 22
Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
Aegis8 is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 12:04
  #25 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 11,507
We will see who takes major military action first.

I say major because the situation in Eastern Ukraine is so murky that a casus bellum is far to easy to create and claim.
ORAC is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 15:25
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: cowtown
Posts: 267
Nothing murky about using artillery against civilians.
Cutting the water off .
Cutting the power off .
If NATO used those tactics in Afghanistan they would have been home in three months , instead of playing at sitting ducks for almost two decades .
fitliker is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 18:05
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Welwyn Garden City
Age: 60
Posts: 1,459
Originally Posted by Aegis8 View Post
Came across this, which is the main reason for the sudden movement of Russian forces. The president of Ukraine basically signed a declaration of war when he signed Decree No. 117/2021. It is on the president dot gov dot ua site. Google translate does a fair job.

As for his popularity, starting a war will not heighten his popularity. Russians do not want war, but attack Russia and they will end it for you.
I'm sure I read or heard a couple of days ago that President Biden told the Ukraine that they are not alone.
FB
Finningley Boy is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 19:09
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: London
Posts: 28
With allied attentions focused in the straits of Malacca, the UKs floating Greenham Common deployed there under American command, the recent illustration of how difficult it can be to navigate the canal with a ship blocking it, the continuing trouble in Aden and in Burma and the potential for de-stabilisation of Jordan, you bet you-know-who will try to take a nibble. Fits the previous MO.
NAROBS is offline  
Old 5th Apr 2021, 19:47
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: London/Oxford/New York
Posts: 2,504
NAROBS,


.........WHAT???????................
pr00ne is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 07:40
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: any town as retired.
Posts: 2,175
Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.
Gulfstreamaviator is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 08:00
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 3,160
I'm impressed that PPRuNe deemed important enough to suddenly have a number of new pro-Russian posters turn up all of a sudden - I exempt racedo & etdudiant who have been on here for years
Asturias56 is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 10:59
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: any town as retired.
Posts: 2,175

Gulfstreamaviator is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 11:01
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: any town as retired.
Posts: 2,175

Gulfstreamaviator is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 11:47
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Pathfinder Country
Posts: 472
Casus belli ?
aw ditor is offline  
Old 6th Apr 2021, 15:29
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: out of this world...
Posts: 245
The whole Ukranian situation is a mess, however in my opinion the East of Ukraine is Ukranian territory by International law and the Russians have (helped) illegaly occupied land there. The Russians denied it at first but after so much evidence was found (destroyed russian vehicles with russian unit markings/personal effects inside them), they couldnt hide the fact that they were supporting the insurgency/uprising.

The problem however is that the USA has been doing the exact same thing in various countries over the past 40 years, so they should be the last nation to point fingers at the Russians. The situation is also made more complicated by a large portion of the Donbas region being pro russian and have been for a long time. It really is a tricky situation and this wont be an easy one to solve. I hope that it doesnt end up in a massive flare up of military action (reports have said a massive increase in artillery/small arms fire over the past week) because that could get nasty very quickly with the current tensions around the region. At the end of the day its the civilians on the ground who are caught up in the crossfire and end up paying with their lives. I was actually looking at google earth yesterday and you can see how many towns along the ceasefire line have been destroyed. Trenches, tank ditches etc are all visible around that area as well.
transport jock is offline  
Old 8th Apr 2021, 08:48
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: UK
Age: 50
Posts: 351
Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Invaded ? Population of Crimea has always been overwhelmingly Russian. They had a vote and every survey since including from Western agencies asking people would they wish to be ruled by Kiev or Moscow comes out with 90% Moscow.

Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.

As for popularity of Putin !!!! Events in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine were a counter to Maidan square where a US supported (Victoria Nuland and $ 1/2 Billion spent) event overthrew an elected President. The population loss since show many Ukrainians wish no part in it.
Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.
highflyer40 is offline  
Old 8th Apr 2021, 10:30
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Near the Black Sea
Age: 45
Posts: 22
Originally Posted by highflyer40 View Post
Of course they donít. Nobody in any country has the right to say.. we identify with that country, so we are therefore now part of that country instead of this country. They are free to move to the other country. Citizens do not have a right to annex parts of their own country.

I would love to see Russiaís opinion on the matter if those areas of Russia that identify more strongly with China and Mongolia decided one day to just take their land and leave. The tanks would be rolling the very next day.
Your statement is a bit over simplified and not entirely correct. The right to self determination is enshrined in the UN charter and international law. It guaranties peoples the right to the process of self determination, but it does not guaranty the outcome, ie. full independence.

You will find that the Donbas regions initially wanted autonomy form Kiev, but still to be part of Ukraine. Now with the history of Kiev stalling, not implementing the Minsk agreements and war looming again, they are proclaiming more loudly to become part of Russia. Which will not happen.

This needs to be resolved by Kiev coming to the party and doing what they signed up to do.
Aegis8 is offline  
Old 8th Apr 2021, 13:11
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 932
Originally Posted by Gulfstreamaviator View Post
Rivet en route. drone on site also . Russian also.
see FR feeds.
Nothing new here. They've both been doing this for years now.

In Europe the only major 'local' nation state threat is Russia, so its wholly unsurprising all our airborne surveillance assets are sent this way.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 8th Apr 2021, 13:17
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 932
Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Have people not a right to decide their own destiny ? If Kiev is so sure that people wish to return then why does it not advocate a referendum using electoral rolls form 2014.
Daft comment - that's a recipe for Balkanisation and never-ending conflict if ever I read one.

On the basis of your comments I take it you're in favour of Moldova pivoting west to Europe, given the majority of their population are reportedly supportive?
dead_pan is offline  
Old 8th Apr 2021, 14:14
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: cowtown
Posts: 267
Originally Posted by aw ditor View Post
Casus belli ?
Someone made money selling land previous collectives and Soviets .
Probably the same corrupt people that sold the old Soviet aircraft carrier , and rocket technology to Iran and North Korea .
We all know what happened to the Arms dealer trying to sell the stolen nukes , he was given a nuclear death .
Maybe the Land thieves who sold the old Soviet farms to foreign investors will wage war to avoid court .
Not the first time illegal land sales have been the cause of war . There are stories in the Old Testament about fields being sold off .
fitliker is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.