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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 28th Sep 2020, 14:55
  #641 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by West Coast
I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.
Assuming they can pay.
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Old 28th Sep 2020, 15:27
  #642 (permalink)  
 
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The Dominos are falling .
Tibet , Hong Kong , Mongolia , South China Sea , Taiwan? Nepal ? Kashmir?

So what ? Not my Problem





Last edited by fitliker; 28th Sep 2020 at 15:48.
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Old 28th Sep 2020, 22:58
  #643 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Oh, I think you’re wrong. If the level of lifestyle the Chinese have become accustomed to vanishes, there isn’t an army large enough to contain the fury. A devastated China loses its place as a leading economy, a weakened China loses its island chains earned by strong arm.

Way too many negatives for China.
Fair point but the regime is still in control. Look at Hong Kong. Although china has made hugh leaps in alleviating poverty for the majority of its citizens it is still a controlled population.

Last edited by finestkind; 28th Sep 2020 at 23:08.
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 01:00
  #644 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
The US imports it’s oil from a variety of nations for a variety of reasons, largely to avoid being held hostage to one country or consortium. Imagine the leverage the leverage Russia would have over China. I’m sure the lessons of oil embargoes haven’t been lost on China.

I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.
I don't think China is in the business of being subject to leverage. Estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China. Interestingly, Russia is said to have 21 years of production at 2018 rates, and China has 17 years. I suspect that this doesn't include the Arctic areas Russia are posturing over and I am surprised that China does not have a bigger stated reserve given their land mass. Perhaps that will change with time and technology. Obviously if we stop buying from China, their raw material usage goes down somewhat (I can see military related production increasing though)

By-the-by, I think as far as US oil imports are concerned, its actually largely to avoid using up their own natural resources any faster than they have to, and consequently running their potential enemies out faster. Quite right too, strategically speaking.
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 03:47
  #645 (permalink)  
 
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You might get a surprise if you knew which country has the largest oil companies in 2020 . Same country that is the worlds largest producer of Gold .
They may just about to hand the world a century or two of Humiliation , and there is absolutely nothing I could do about it
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 06:59
  #646 (permalink)  
 
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I am surprised that China does not have a bigger stated reserve given their land mass.
Land resources in China tend to be gas; especially in Western China where buses and now taxis have been running on gas for decades. Oil mainly comes from offshore and it is quite a long way (90 n.m.) offshore. A decade ago when I was there pipelines did not exist; it was exported by tanker from FPSOs.

Not the best arrangement during a punch-up.
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 09:44
  #647 (permalink)  
 
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"estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China"

be careful when quoting reserves of oil or any other thing else in the ground - once it reaches a certain quantity they don't bother looking for several years. Especially when the price is low

Why would Saudi Arabia explore for more oil when they have 221 years of their annual consumption? I know for a fact that another Mid East country was drilling wells for gas in the early 00's and every time they found oil they just plugged it off as they had more than enough for decades. Both the the Russians and the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 23:41
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
Land resources in China tend to be gas; especially in Western China where buses and now taxis have been running on gas for decades. Oil mainly comes from offshore and it is quite a long way (90 n.m.) offshore. A decade ago when I was there pipelines did not exist; it was exported by tanker from FPSOs.

Not the best arrangement during a punch-up.
Thanks for the info - if it hasn't got wings I usually have to go learn about it.
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 23:42
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China"

be careful when quoting reserves of oil or any other thing else in the ground - once it reaches a certain quantity they don't bother looking for several years. Especially when the price is low

Why would Saudi Arabia explore for more oil when they have 221 years of their annual consumption? I know for a fact that another Mid East country was drilling wells for gas in the early 00's and every time they found oil they just plugged it off as they had more than enough for decades. Both the the Russians and the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra
Fair points. If it were me I'd prefer to know what I'd got in toto, but, I'm not a nation state.
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 06:32
  #650 (permalink)  
 
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the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra
Not necessary, just make your "nine-dash line" into a "twelve-dash line" and hey ho, problem solved.

By the way does anyone still believe that COVID19/20/21/22... was not an act of war?

IG
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 06:57
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Originally Posted by Imagegear

By the way does anyone still believe that COVID19/20/21/22... was not an act of war?
Yes. Along with most level headed, non-whacked out, conspiracy theorists.
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 07:18
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Originally Posted by salad-dodger
Yes. Along with most level headed, non-whacked out, conspiracy theorists.
Was that tacit agreement, or are most conspiracy theorists "level-headed and non-whacked out."

Personally, my sunny side is usually up, and I don't see the point in chasing conspiracy theories, the facts tend to be supportive of my thinking without having to resort to la-la-land dreamscapes.

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Old 30th Sep 2020, 09:47
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Article in The Times today.
China flexes military muscle with drills in all four coastal seas

China’s military has conducted simultaneous drills in all four of its coastal seas while the US has begun target training in the Pacific with attack drones.

The four-seas drills are the latest in a series of military exercises ordered by Beijing that have escalated tensions over Taiwan the democratic island which China has vowed to reunify with the mainland, but which has a defence pact with the United States.

In a sign of the growing tensions between the two superpowers in the region, the US Air Force Magazine published an image of the American soldiers featuring an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over a map of China on the arm patches of their uniforms, which Beijing’s state media decried as “an extremely arrogant provocation”.

The recent military activity has unnerved many in Taiwan, with as many as 57 per cent of islanders questioned by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation saying they would like to see the purchase of more defence equipment from the US.

“It shows a sense of urgency over national security on the part of the Taiwanese people when they are faced with the frequent and strong military threats from the mainland,” Yinglong You, the foundation’s chairman, told United Daily News, a Taiwanese newspaper.

The survey found that more than 60 per cent of the respondents believed that the US could assist Taiwan if China tried to invade the island, compared with about 30 per cent who did not believe Washington would become involved. The survey also found that 86 per cent of respondents considered themselves to be a separate nation from China and more than 50 per cent expressed “extreme dislike” for the Communist Party of China.

For months, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has increased the military pressure around Taiwan, with frequent live-fire drills and air patrols. Beijing recently said it would no longer recognise the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water that separates the island from the mainland, as demarcating areas of control.

The four-seas exercise is the second of its kind since last month, when state media said they were a response to the escalating tensions around Taiwan. The exercise in the Yellow Sea will continue until tomorrow, while drills in the Bohai Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea took place yesterday.

The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, warned against any drone attack against China, which it said would amount to “a real war, a war crime that destroys peace”.
“To China, that is an invasion and an aggression of war,” read the editorial. “Our only option is to strike hard at the aggressors and teach them a lesson they will never forget. If Washington wants to try its luck, the Chinese military and Chinese people will surely rise to the challenge and fight to the end.”


Bluster or 'stay away' message?
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 11:25
  #654 (permalink)  
 
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My son has a theory about 'The October Surprise' that occurs just before a presidential election in the USA. He is of the opinion that this may be connected.
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 18:30
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Interesting comment by General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith:

Next stop Singapore for the dreamers...

The British Army will have a 'more persistent presence' in Asia as the Government seeks to expand its military ties with regional allies in response to rising threats from China, the Chief of the General Staff has said.

General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith suggested a greater UK presence in the Indo Pacific region will reverse the process of regional withdrawal seen after 9/11, when Britain's focus shifted to the Middle East.

The head of the Army claimed 'there is a market for a more persistent presence from the British Army' in the Far East, adding that that 'now might be the time to redress that imbalance'.
Gen Carleton-Smith even hinted that RAF bases and the Royal Navy's new aircraft carriers could provide 'lily pads' from which the Army could operate with allies, such as Japan and South Korea.
More persistent presence in the Far East

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Old 30th Sep 2020, 19:28
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Interesting comment by General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith:

Next stop Singapore for the dreamers...



More persistent presence in the Far East

IG
What alternate reality is this man living in?
Does he see a plausible role for the PoW to be homeported in Singapore? Worked out poorly last time and the odds are a lot worse today.

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Old 1st Oct 2020, 00:51
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So the plucky little British Army will go up against the PLA.
Good luck with that...
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 03:09
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Originally Posted by tartare
So the plucky little British Army will go up against the PLA.
Good luck with that...
Current state of the UK.
Brexiteers think it's still 1942
British Generals think it's still 1842....
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 07:55
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Back in the mid nineties discussing the handover of Hong Kong with a senior Chinese official.

"After that there will be Macao," I said.

"Yes," he replied, "and after that there will be Singapore."
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 16:41
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How would you feel if you lived in a country that had lost biological food security ? 80 percent of your pork production destroyed by Swine Flu , 60 percent of chickens killed by bird flu . The Biological Laboratory built and financed by foreigners gets a reputation for leaking and is blamed for latest Global Pandemic .Locusts plaguing your food supplies from other sources ,Strategic Frozen food stocks that were supposed to last two years down to the last three months of supply .The frozen food you are importing is polluted with the Covid virus , fishing stocks are being denied by hostile neighbours . Might be grounds for some home grown conspiracy theories ? Add earthquakes , floods and storms of unusually intensity . You might start to believe in conspiracy theories or divine intervention or even that the Gods are angry . You might even start to think you are under attack .

You might even start to believe throwing a few virgins into the nearest Volcano might improve the situation. Would it matter if the Virgins are male or female or identify as female or male to the modern Gods ? Or you might think the rest of the world is against you and welcome the first friendly gesture .

Aristotle said “War is easy , Peace is Hard “ Keeping the peace in that region is going to be very hard .
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