The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Japan has said nothing about the Senkaku Islands north of Taiwan.
I have a devious idea.
If China wants to make a point, they ought to offer $80 Million (US) to the Texas National Guard for security assistance in defending their border.
I doubt they will (and I suspect that the current governor would decline) but that would be a way to make their point.
And it would be rather funny.
China recently warned that the U.S. has crossed a red line with its assistance and support of Taiwan, saying that a "storm of lethal consequences" is brewing. The Global Times, a state-run communist newspaper in China, published an op-ed on Thursday criticizing the recent $80 million military financing program the U.S. announced for Taiwan and said: "With the increasing number and intensity of its intervention methods, the brewing and imminent storm of lethal consequences for Taiwan cannot be ignored."According to AP, the FMF is usually used for sovereign states, and China has continued to claim Taiwan as its own territory, while the U.S. disagrees and says Taiwan is an independent nation.
I doubt they will (and I suspect that the current governor would decline) but that would be a way to make their point.
And it would be rather funny.
https://unherd.com/2023/08/has-xi-ji...pUxS9OmM6Ur72g
An opinion that Chinese spending (in part) on infrastructure will drive Xi to the poor house.
An opinion that Chinese spending (in part) on infrastructure will drive Xi to the poor house.
reading this weeks Economist its much more likely to be issues with property and the shadow banking sector - sounds like 2008 in the West
I doubt they 'll go over the edge - we (especially on here) always overestimate the chances of repressive regimes disintegrating.
More likely is a serious loss of belief in the Party, people going over to the old Russian work ethic ("They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work") with the Govt having to resort to western style handouts to shore up bits of the financial sector there. Generally speaking a slow down rather than a collapse.
More likely is a serious loss of belief in the Party, people going over to the old Russian work ethic ("They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work") with the Govt having to resort to western style handouts to shore up bits of the financial sector there. Generally speaking a slow down rather than a collapse.
Administrator
West Coast: thank you for the link. That was worth a read.
There must be something behind this. Afraid of "unauthorized teachings?"
That last is a bit of a shock.
Perhaps they perceive the threat differently than those outside of their homeland do.
Asturias56
While I hope you are right, the linked article does indicate that if they fall on hard times, the rest of us will feel it.
It was Xi alone, in an expressly personal decision in the name of social equality, who abruptly shut down China’s vast private tutoring industry in July 2021, depriving new university graduates of desirable starter jobs; the seven largest teaching companies alone had to fire 250,000 graduates. Enterprising graduates tried to teach privately, but in October 2021 online tutoring was halted, while those who gathered a few pupils for lessons in parks of cafes were told to stop or face arrest when spotted by police.
Not even the collapse of Putin’s quick-victory plan might dissuade Xi, who will rely on treason within Taiwan’s astonishingly lackadaisical armed forces to win quickly.
Last year, Taiwan reacted to sharply risen tensions by increasing military service to a measly one year from an absurd four months — and then delayed the start to 2024…
Last year, Taiwan reacted to sharply risen tensions by increasing military service to a measly one year from an absurd four months — and then delayed the start to 2024…
Perhaps they perceive the threat differently than those outside of their homeland do.
Asturias56
Generally speaking a slow down rather than a collapse.
well the window before they have to provide for a very large population of retirees closes all the time. By 2035 or so they'll be in the same boat as the UK - not enough workers
That map will doubtless be a discussion at the ASEAN conference.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05...uth-china-sea/
They are navigating a fine line between Chinese economic demands and US security demands.
While I am sure they'd mostly like to remain "unaligned" that luxury may not be an option.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05...uth-china-sea/
They are navigating a fine line between Chinese economic demands and US security demands.
While I am sure they'd mostly like to remain "unaligned" that luxury may not be an option.
Many of them have managed it for 70 years - they REALLY don't want to have to fight anyone - it would ruin their growing economies - but then they don't like the Chinese in general. The real question is how likely is China to kick off a serious hot war . My guess is relatively unlikely - they don't want to risk all the progress they've made unless it's something visceral like Taiwan.
Many of them have managed it for 70 years - they REALLY don't want to have to fight anyone - it would ruin their growing economies - but then they don't like the Chinese in general. The real question is how likely is China to kick off a serious hot war . My guess is relatively unlikely - they don't want to risk all the progress they've made unless it's something visceral like Taiwan.
https://news.usni.org/2023/01/16/chi...-oni-commander
IIRC the Chinese are still well behind the USA in just about every category of equipment especially in capabilities
The Chinese have not fought a "hot" war since 1962 (or 1979 if you include the Vietnam incursion) - the USA has hardly stopped fighting somebody, somewhere
The Chinese have not fought a "hot" war since 1962 (or 1979 if you include the Vietnam incursion) - the USA has hardly stopped fighting somebody, somewhere
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
The tip of an iceberg - ask Australia…
British parliamentary researcher linked to senior Tory MPs suspected of spying for Beijing
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...cher-xrtbrw86m
Commons ‘Chinese spy’ arrested
A British parliamentary researcher has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China in what is alleged to be one of the most damaging breaches of security involving a hostile state at Westminster.
The male suspect, who is in his late twenties, is understood to be linked to a number of senior Tory MPs, including several who are privy to classified or highly sensitive information. They include Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, and Alicia Kearns, the chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.
A senior Whitehall source claimed: “This is a major escalation by China. We have never seen anything like this before.”
Counterterrorism police arrested the researcher and another man in his thirties on suspicion of espionage-related offences in March.
The researcher is a Briton who held a parliamentary pass and has worked with MPs on international policy, including relations with Beijing, for several years.
He previously spent time living and working in China, where security officials fear he may have been recruited as a sleeper agent and sent back to Britain with the intention of infiltrating political networks critical of the Beijing regime.
The researcher was arrested in Edinburgh and his London flat is thought to have been searched by police. The second suspect was arrested in Oxfordshire.
Scotland Yard said in a statement: “Officers from the Metropolitan Police arrested two men on March 13 on suspicion of offences under section one of the Official Secrets Act 1911.
“A man in his thirties was arrested at an address in Oxfordshire and a man in his twenties was arrested at an address in Edinburgh. Searches were also carried out at both the residential properties, as well as at a third address in east London. Both men were taken to a south London police station and were released on police bail until a date in early October.”….
The alleged infiltration of parliament by a British citizen has prompted widespread alarm at Westminster and follows warnings by Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, that the Chinese Communist Party poses “the most game-changing strategic challenge” to the UK.….
Tugendhat is said to have only had limited contact with the arrested researcher, who was hired by someone else, and severed contact with him when he began running for the Conservative Party leadership in July last year. He therefore had no dealings with the suspect as security minister.
Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), said: “It’s no surprise that he’d go after Tom. He’s been out front on China for years. In IPAC we have long suspected that something was badly wrong because there were consistent efforts from a hostile researcher to smear IPAC MPs and label them as extreme on China policy. Now it all makes sense.”
A Whitehall source added: “I’m pretty sure he [the researcher] turned some backbenchers from China hawks into being apathetic about Beijing. He was regularly complaining about a lack of nuance among China-sceptic MPs and seemed to have a particular issue with Iain Duncan Smith.”
Paddy McGuinness, the government’s former deputy national security adviser, described China’s alleged actions as both “reckless” and a “serious escalation” of espionage activities. He said: “The mask has truly slipped. This isn’t about China objecting to interference in their internal affairs as they so often claim. Rather they are messing in ours, with a casual disregard for our democracy and our sovereignty.”…….
British parliamentary researcher linked to senior Tory MPs suspected of spying for Beijing
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...cher-xrtbrw86m
Commons ‘Chinese spy’ arrested
A British parliamentary researcher has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China in what is alleged to be one of the most damaging breaches of security involving a hostile state at Westminster.
The male suspect, who is in his late twenties, is understood to be linked to a number of senior Tory MPs, including several who are privy to classified or highly sensitive information. They include Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, and Alicia Kearns, the chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.
A senior Whitehall source claimed: “This is a major escalation by China. We have never seen anything like this before.”
Counterterrorism police arrested the researcher and another man in his thirties on suspicion of espionage-related offences in March.
The researcher is a Briton who held a parliamentary pass and has worked with MPs on international policy, including relations with Beijing, for several years.
He previously spent time living and working in China, where security officials fear he may have been recruited as a sleeper agent and sent back to Britain with the intention of infiltrating political networks critical of the Beijing regime.
The researcher was arrested in Edinburgh and his London flat is thought to have been searched by police. The second suspect was arrested in Oxfordshire.
Scotland Yard said in a statement: “Officers from the Metropolitan Police arrested two men on March 13 on suspicion of offences under section one of the Official Secrets Act 1911.
“A man in his thirties was arrested at an address in Oxfordshire and a man in his twenties was arrested at an address in Edinburgh. Searches were also carried out at both the residential properties, as well as at a third address in east London. Both men were taken to a south London police station and were released on police bail until a date in early October.”….
The alleged infiltration of parliament by a British citizen has prompted widespread alarm at Westminster and follows warnings by Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, that the Chinese Communist Party poses “the most game-changing strategic challenge” to the UK.….
Tugendhat is said to have only had limited contact with the arrested researcher, who was hired by someone else, and severed contact with him when he began running for the Conservative Party leadership in July last year. He therefore had no dealings with the suspect as security minister.
Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), said: “It’s no surprise that he’d go after Tom. He’s been out front on China for years. In IPAC we have long suspected that something was badly wrong because there were consistent efforts from a hostile researcher to smear IPAC MPs and label them as extreme on China policy. Now it all makes sense.”
A Whitehall source added: “I’m pretty sure he [the researcher] turned some backbenchers from China hawks into being apathetic about Beijing. He was regularly complaining about a lack of nuance among China-sceptic MPs and seemed to have a particular issue with Iain Duncan Smith.”
Paddy McGuinness, the government’s former deputy national security adviser, described China’s alleged actions as both “reckless” and a “serious escalation” of espionage activities. He said: “The mask has truly slipped. This isn’t about China objecting to interference in their internal affairs as they so often claim. Rather they are messing in ours, with a casual disregard for our democracy and our sovereignty.”…….
"Counterterrorism police arrested the researcher and another man in his thirties on suspicion of espionage-related offences in March."
Amazed its stayed out of the news so long - of course they were bailed so it doesn't sound as if it was Guy Fawkes they found
Amazed its stayed out of the news so long - of course they were bailed so it doesn't sound as if it was Guy Fawkes they found
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...name-kgmgrzvl8
China spy suspect is parliamentary aide Chris Cash
A Tory parliamentary researcher arrested on suspicion of spying for China was the director of an influential policy group on Beijing co-founded by the security minister. Chris Cash, 28, was closely linked with Tom Tugendhat and was employed as a researcher by Alicia Kearns, chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.
The suspect is the son of a GP and grew up in a wealthy suburb of Edinburgh. He went to the fee-paying George Watson’s College, where he was a head of house, and later studied history at the University of St Andrews… before spending two years teaching English literature at an international school in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, on a scheme run by the British Council.
He returned to the UK to study for an MSc in China and globalisation at King’s College London before securing employment at Westminster in 2021. He was hired as a researcher for the China Research Group… More recently he was hired as a researcher for Kearns, working inside parliament…..
Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said Cash was a “very serious operator” and a “skilled networker who became very embedded in the Westminster China scene”.…
Cash was also active on Westminster’s social scene. He was photographed at a party at the US embassy in London last year and organised bi-monthly drinks at a pub near parliament for a “Whitehall crowd of quite young people interested in China”. The regular event, known as Westminster China Policy drinks, was popular with young civil servants, political aides, journalists and think tank staffers.
“They used to do a drinks thing, [he] would always be there, there were some young people who worked for the Foreign Office there, Hongkongers . . . it was a lot of young people interested in China,” one of those who attended said. Another guest, who had been invited by Cash, said those attending included young Tory researchers, junior civil servants and American think tank staff…..
China has labelled the arrest a”political farce” and “malicious slander”.
“The claim that China is suspected of ‘stealing British intelligence’ is completely fabricated and nothing but malicious slander,” the Chinese embassy in London said in a statement published late on Sunday.
“We firmly oppose it and urge relevant parties in the UK to stop their anti-China political manipulation and stop putting on such self-staged political farce.”….
China spy suspect is parliamentary aide Chris Cash
A Tory parliamentary researcher arrested on suspicion of spying for China was the director of an influential policy group on Beijing co-founded by the security minister. Chris Cash, 28, was closely linked with Tom Tugendhat and was employed as a researcher by Alicia Kearns, chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.
The suspect is the son of a GP and grew up in a wealthy suburb of Edinburgh. He went to the fee-paying George Watson’s College, where he was a head of house, and later studied history at the University of St Andrews… before spending two years teaching English literature at an international school in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, on a scheme run by the British Council.
He returned to the UK to study for an MSc in China and globalisation at King’s College London before securing employment at Westminster in 2021. He was hired as a researcher for the China Research Group… More recently he was hired as a researcher for Kearns, working inside parliament…..
Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said Cash was a “very serious operator” and a “skilled networker who became very embedded in the Westminster China scene”.…
Cash was also active on Westminster’s social scene. He was photographed at a party at the US embassy in London last year and organised bi-monthly drinks at a pub near parliament for a “Whitehall crowd of quite young people interested in China”. The regular event, known as Westminster China Policy drinks, was popular with young civil servants, political aides, journalists and think tank staffers.
“They used to do a drinks thing, [he] would always be there, there were some young people who worked for the Foreign Office there, Hongkongers . . . it was a lot of young people interested in China,” one of those who attended said. Another guest, who had been invited by Cash, said those attending included young Tory researchers, junior civil servants and American think tank staff…..
China has labelled the arrest a”political farce” and “malicious slander”.
“The claim that China is suspected of ‘stealing British intelligence’ is completely fabricated and nothing but malicious slander,” the Chinese embassy in London said in a statement published late on Sunday.
“We firmly oppose it and urge relevant parties in the UK to stop their anti-China political manipulation and stop putting on such self-staged political farce.”….
One of many leaks in the HoP I suspect. Are all “researchers” and MP’s vetted before taking their posts? Or are they just assumed to be good eggs as they went to the right school/university and are a member of the party?
Hmm - I suspect it may be a hard charge to prove - whats the difference bewteen "research", PR and spying???