The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Yep, that was it - thanks.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).
Over the past few weeks, the clash between Pelosi and the Biden administration over her travel plans has spilled into public view. Biden himself had said the military “thinks it’s not a good idea right now” for Pelosi to travel to the island. Although Pelosi has declined to address her travel plans, she told reporters on Friday that Congress should play a greater role in advancing Biden’s security goals in the Indo-Pacific, noting that, “We have global responsibilities.” Pelosi has been among the most consistent China hawks over the last three decades, even taking on her own party when it comes to the threat Beijing poses to U.S. security and economic interests. She has championed human-rights concerns in China, including the genocide of Uyghur Muslims and the crackdown of pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
What do you mean by win?
What do you consider to be victory conditions for China and for the US?
What are the political objectives of either side when armed forces are committed?
This isn't a video game, FFS, this is real life.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Maybe this wasn’t quite as unplanned and agreed as suspected…
3 US carrier groups namely the aircraft carrier group USS Ronald Reagan & the amphibious assault groups USS Tripoli & USS America are in the vicinity of Taiwan. The map also shows the locations of the 2 Chinese carriers, Liaoning & Shandong.
3 US carrier groups namely the aircraft carrier group USS Ronald Reagan & the amphibious assault groups USS Tripoli & USS America are in the vicinity of Taiwan. The map also shows the locations of the 2 Chinese carriers, Liaoning & Shandong.
Yep, that was it - thanks.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).
Biden comes across as conciliatory, Pelosi sends a message of Congressional independence and they both show the US does recognize its interests and supports a freely elected government.
Most important, it represents a clear rejection of the long tolerated Chinese technique of salami slicing, trying to constrain their neighbors by creeping tightening of constraints and taboos.
Interestingly enough, the Chinese public appears to have been the most impacted.
Reports are that Weibo crashed due to an overload of comments, mostly disappointed that China's wishes had been ignored with no consequences.
One poster reportedly asked: 'Could we not at least have made her take the (mandatory in China) Covid test on arrival?'
Although this was quickly censored, clearly the Chinese retain their strong sense of humor.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
The aggressive behaviour of China, the PLA and the Eastern Theatre Command, as shown in this graphic, will provide valuable insights into Chinese military thinking and capacity in the days ahead. 1/14
The Chinese (and very few westerners TBH) don't understand the "she's, strictly speaking, operating under her role in the Legislative Branch (we had a few visits by Senators while I was deployed some years ago, something similar) and not beholden to the Executive Branch for permission."
They're a dictatorship - and everything flows from the top - they think we're taking them for fools by saying that she might not have approval from Biden to go
They're a dictatorship - and everything flows from the top - they think we're taking them for fools by saying that she might not have approval from Biden to go
Indeed. Although China is from a nuclear perspective rather a dwarf compared to Russia. It has roughly 1/20th the number of Warheads compared to Russia.
But still the overall effect of such a nuclear exchange would be catastrophic.
That said, a nuclear exchange with Russia would be extinctive for mankind.
But still the overall effect of such a nuclear exchange would be catastrophic.
That said, a nuclear exchange with Russia would be extinctive for mankind.
The US just gave a signal to China. No more quiet expansion.No Crimea 2.0. Taiwan will be protected. The US act early, they let things escalate early, they force China to state the true intentions. All this at a well picked moment while China is practically paralyzed because of the upcoming party congress preparing the next Xi term. They even managed to squeeze in a message to Kim with the Korea maneuvers.
This visit is obviously very well coordinated with the White House and well prepared. It is just diplomatically labeled to look a little less offensive in public. I call this a strategic message to China after the Ukraine and Hongkong experiences.
This visit is obviously very well coordinated with the White House and well prepared. It is just diplomatically labeled to look a little less offensive in public. I call this a strategic message to China after the Ukraine and Hongkong experiences.
China's foreign minister has called US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan "manic, irresponsible and irrational".
The world is having a helmet fire, yet there is still some humor left outside.There is a substantial amount of preparation in the region that has been quietly building up, on the Blue team's side. China may be annoyed, but they are risking completely collapsing their communism with Chinese characteristics, shutting down Taiwan will conclude by default Chinese trade based on arbitrage which has powered their economy to this point. As Russia has gone before, trade would be damaged even more through disrupting Taiwan. That wouldn't even be a choice of outcome,it is an inevitable outcome just from the effect of an attack on the global supply chain. That bites both ways, as China is heavily dependent on food import, and is already heading towards a rerun of the bad bits of the 60's own goal on food supply issues. Management may feel insulated but that comes with risks as there is a lot of people to have a really bad downside from a supersized Japanese 80's style meltdown. The CCP maintains control through the apathy of the populace who have enjoyed the boom that has been driven by foreign trade, and all of that is at risk.
None of this is good, but China is a dumpster fire already irrespective of the irritant that Taiwan represents to them; Taiwan is like #899 on the priorities of problems coming down the cistern to the chinese systems drain. Nothing about Taiwan fixes the impending problems that China has, but it will bring out the popcorn. The corruption of the PLA is severe, and Russias performance in the wake of corruption of a similar scale won't be lost on the underlings, but Xi has isolated himself from input, so may well be the last emperor.
This situation will reinforce some resolve, as the PRC's response already is an aggressive response to a perceived slight from a person not being a head of state.
The USN, USAF, and Marines have serious level of capability in the area already, hope that results in cooler heads prevailing.
Interesting times
Same problem as Russia and Kim: Too many threats and nobody will be scared anymore.
It seems to me there are really just 2 questions that matter - will there be a U.S /China War over Taiwan, and if so, how will it progress.
China has repeatedly stated that it will bring Taiwan back under it's control (debatable if it ever was of course...), and has expicitly said many times that it does not rule out the use of force to achieve this. The U.S. policy of Strategic Ambiguity has been laid bare by President Biden - even if he was not supposed to...the U.S will defend Taiwan against any military incursion. This is clear and not disputed.
So, China is saying they will take Taiwan 'back', and the U.S is saying they will not allow that to happen. Therefore, it seems easy to conclude that unless one of them backs down, then there will be a conflict at some point. This is where it gets interesting...
China is well known for taking the 'long-view' and has shown that they can have infinite patience whilst they wait for circumstances to suit their needs. They will be watching the political situation is the U.S closely, with the ever increasing divide between rich and poor, democrat and republican, and of course the looming possibility of another Trump term. They will be assessing whether that will work in their favour or not...would Trump use the military to defend Taiwan? Will American society breakdown? Will the Russian aggression against Ukraine succeed etc. All of these things, and many more including the domestic political situation in China, will factor into the decision.
I strongly think that China absolutely will attempt to take Taiwan by force, but they will do it when they think they can. They are currently thumping their chests for domestic consumption so Xi can appear strong before his bid for a 3rd 5 year term. This does not of course account for the possibility of an 'accidental war' when someone gets an itchy trigger finger. Right now I think China has too much to lose, and victory would be far from certain. There is a logic that states that if 2 nuclear powers go to war, and one starts to lose, then they will deploy nukes as a last resort. Even without that happening, the question as to who would 'win' (asked earlier) is not really valid, the better question would be 'who will lose the least'. A conventional war between China and the US would be horrendous beyond belief. However, given the location of the likely 'battlefield', my money would be on China ultimately being the victor, but not without devastating losses inflicted by the U.S.
Both sides know this and so we must hope that restraint wins the day, at least for now. The Pelosi visit was a firm 'fc*k you' to China, and only a fool would have expected it to have gone unanswered. Things will calm down to a quiet standoff before too long I think.
But hey, what do I know?
China has repeatedly stated that it will bring Taiwan back under it's control (debatable if it ever was of course...), and has expicitly said many times that it does not rule out the use of force to achieve this. The U.S. policy of Strategic Ambiguity has been laid bare by President Biden - even if he was not supposed to...the U.S will defend Taiwan against any military incursion. This is clear and not disputed.
So, China is saying they will take Taiwan 'back', and the U.S is saying they will not allow that to happen. Therefore, it seems easy to conclude that unless one of them backs down, then there will be a conflict at some point. This is where it gets interesting...
China is well known for taking the 'long-view' and has shown that they can have infinite patience whilst they wait for circumstances to suit their needs. They will be watching the political situation is the U.S closely, with the ever increasing divide between rich and poor, democrat and republican, and of course the looming possibility of another Trump term. They will be assessing whether that will work in their favour or not...would Trump use the military to defend Taiwan? Will American society breakdown? Will the Russian aggression against Ukraine succeed etc. All of these things, and many more including the domestic political situation in China, will factor into the decision.
I strongly think that China absolutely will attempt to take Taiwan by force, but they will do it when they think they can. They are currently thumping their chests for domestic consumption so Xi can appear strong before his bid for a 3rd 5 year term. This does not of course account for the possibility of an 'accidental war' when someone gets an itchy trigger finger. Right now I think China has too much to lose, and victory would be far from certain. There is a logic that states that if 2 nuclear powers go to war, and one starts to lose, then they will deploy nukes as a last resort. Even without that happening, the question as to who would 'win' (asked earlier) is not really valid, the better question would be 'who will lose the least'. A conventional war between China and the US would be horrendous beyond belief. However, given the location of the likely 'battlefield', my money would be on China ultimately being the victor, but not without devastating losses inflicted by the U.S.
Both sides know this and so we must hope that restraint wins the day, at least for now. The Pelosi visit was a firm 'fc*k you' to China, and only a fool would have expected it to have gone unanswered. Things will calm down to a quiet standoff before too long I think.
But hey, what do I know?
China tried to move forward when the US was perceived to be weak. But the US is far from weak. Message sent.
There is an easy way out: Both sides can just keep the positions they had before but they cannot move ahead something China tried to do with threatening a Taiwan invasion. China has just seen in Ukraine that invading is no walk in the park while Taiwan recently got armed up. At the same time the US is getting prepared to move away from trading with China, quite different from Europe currently, in case of embargoes needed and out of growing strategic and espionage concerns.
China needs the western technology and hard currency income and its global supply lines are quite vulnerable, big navy or not. It cannot risk to end up being the next outlaw. There are enough domestic issues from finances to real estate, a very undeveloped inland and minorities the party will have to deal with.
Therefore it's time to calm down again and stay with the Status Quo.
There is an easy way out: Both sides can just keep the positions they had before but they cannot move ahead something China tried to do with threatening a Taiwan invasion. China has just seen in Ukraine that invading is no walk in the park while Taiwan recently got armed up. At the same time the US is getting prepared to move away from trading with China, quite different from Europe currently, in case of embargoes needed and out of growing strategic and espionage concerns.
China needs the western technology and hard currency income and its global supply lines are quite vulnerable, big navy or not. It cannot risk to end up being the next outlaw. There are enough domestic issues from finances to real estate, a very undeveloped inland and minorities the party will have to deal with.
Therefore it's time to calm down again and stay with the Status Quo.
A US China war? Why? The US has no desire to take China and probably couldn't even if it wanted to. The idea is daft.
The opportunity for small scale incursions and a serious fight over Taiwan is unlikely.
The US would destroy Chinese capabilities within weeks although with some serious losses that would galvanise the US population both left and right.
China definitely doesn't want that.
At the moment the US populace is fighting amongst itself over BLM, the Police, Religion, Guns, Pronouns and Abortion.
The Chinese don't need to get involved, they have more than enough to deal with internally as well as investments that haven't worked out including Afghanistan, N Korea and African pilfering and reneging on contracts.
Plus 60% of the Chinese population is poor - very poor, in fact poorer that the population of Africa and that is going some.
It could be said that the US needs a war with China or at least some proper skirmishes more than the Chinese do.
The opportunity for small scale incursions and a serious fight over Taiwan is unlikely.
The US would destroy Chinese capabilities within weeks although with some serious losses that would galvanise the US population both left and right.
China definitely doesn't want that.
At the moment the US populace is fighting amongst itself over BLM, the Police, Religion, Guns, Pronouns and Abortion.
The Chinese don't need to get involved, they have more than enough to deal with internally as well as investments that haven't worked out including Afghanistan, N Korea and African pilfering and reneging on contracts.
Plus 60% of the Chinese population is poor - very poor, in fact poorer that the population of Africa and that is going some.
It could be said that the US needs a war with China or at least some proper skirmishes more than the Chinese do.
Trouble is Xi has chosen to inflame Nationalist tendencies rather than cool them - no doubt so they "need" a Strong Leader.
Now he has to wind down the tension whilst still banging the big drum.
Now he has to wind down the tension whilst still banging the big drum.