PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
View Single Post
Old 4th Aug 2022, 15:37
  #1396 (permalink)  
Baldeep Inminj
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Parts Unknown
Posts: 249
Received 37 Likes on 18 Posts
It seems to me there are really just 2 questions that matter - will there be a U.S /China War over Taiwan, and if so, how will it progress.

China has repeatedly stated that it will bring Taiwan back under it's control (debatable if it ever was of course...), and has expicitly said many times that it does not rule out the use of force to achieve this. The U.S. policy of Strategic Ambiguity has been laid bare by President Biden - even if he was not supposed to...the U.S will defend Taiwan against any military incursion. This is clear and not disputed.

So, China is saying they will take Taiwan 'back', and the U.S is saying they will not allow that to happen. Therefore, it seems easy to conclude that unless one of them backs down, then there will be a conflict at some point. This is where it gets interesting...

China is well known for taking the 'long-view' and has shown that they can have infinite patience whilst they wait for circumstances to suit their needs. They will be watching the political situation is the U.S closely, with the ever increasing divide between rich and poor, democrat and republican, and of course the looming possibility of another Trump term. They will be assessing whether that will work in their favour or not...would Trump use the military to defend Taiwan? Will American society breakdown? Will the Russian aggression against Ukraine succeed etc. All of these things, and many more including the domestic political situation in China, will factor into the decision.

I strongly think that China absolutely will attempt to take Taiwan by force, but they will do it when they think they can. They are currently thumping their chests for domestic consumption so Xi can appear strong before his bid for a 3rd 5 year term. This does not of course account for the possibility of an 'accidental war' when someone gets an itchy trigger finger. Right now I think China has too much to lose, and victory would be far from certain. There is a logic that states that if 2 nuclear powers go to war, and one starts to lose, then they will deploy nukes as a last resort. Even without that happening, the question as to who would 'win' (asked earlier) is not really valid, the better question would be 'who will lose the least'. A conventional war between China and the US would be horrendous beyond belief. However, given the location of the likely 'battlefield', my money would be on China ultimately being the victor, but not without devastating losses inflicted by the U.S.

Both sides know this and so we must hope that restraint wins the day, at least for now. The Pelosi visit was a firm 'fc*k you' to China, and only a fool would have expected it to have gone unanswered. Things will calm down to a quiet standoff before too long I think.

But hey, what do I know?
Baldeep Inminj is offline