The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Sabre rattling.
Did the Chinese use sabres?
Latest footage circulating on Chinese social media WeChat shows armoured vehicles on the move in the southern Chinese city of Xiamen, as US Speaker Pelosi is reportedly heading to Taipei.
Did the Chinese use sabres?
Latest footage circulating on Chinese social media WeChat shows armoured vehicles on the move in the southern Chinese city of Xiamen, as US Speaker Pelosi is reportedly heading to Taipei.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Nancy Pelosi’s plane has landed in Taipei.
Now let’s see what happens….
An article with great background on what happened during previous such incidents.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...trump-prophecy
The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip
Now let’s see what happens….
An article with great background on what happened during previous such incidents.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...trump-prophecy
The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip
Can China have seriously expected that the US bows to any threats? They sort of manoeuvred themselves into this situation.
China would pay a high price as well if this escalates.
China would pay a high price as well if this escalates.
Last edited by Less Hair; 2nd Aug 2022 at 16:05.
Administrator
NotAsAMod
There is an article describing some interesting parallels with previous tension-filled episodes between U.S. and China.
Niall Ferguson. Full analysis in the Spoiler, it's a long article, or click on the link.
The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip
An excerpt.
There is an article describing some interesting parallels with previous tension-filled episodes between U.S. and China.
Niall Ferguson. Full analysis in the Spoiler, it's a long article, or click on the link.
The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip
An excerpt.
...thanks to the world-leading position of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — which makes 92% of the advanced semiconductors necessary for every smartphone, laptop and ballistic missile in the world — a war for Taiwan would devastate the world economy, including the US technology sector, as Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt pointed out last month. According to estimates by the RAND Corporation, a one-year war between the US and China would cut U.S. gross domestic product by 5% to 10%. Even this administration would have to acknowledge that as a recession.
Spoiler
This could get very interesting...
Wait a sec, she's doing this as a lone wolf () and not in concert with the administration's general line on China? Where did you hear that?
If I see something about it again, I'll link it.
Was it this you read, tdracer?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...china-00048940
Originally Posted by politico
"President Joe Biden’s national security and military advisers had cautioned Pelosi against the visit, POLITICO previously reported, given the heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing."
handsome fireworks, but at the same time makes me wonder what is the quality of chnese artillery equipment. The Russians have worn out their big guns in Ukraine and apparently they are facing quality issues in replacing the barrels. Just wondering what is left of the chinese barrels after such a thrust of hot metal. The chinese are shouting out similar type of rhetorics as Russia regarding their military capabilty, but what is the truth in the end.
A very long article with diagrams & photos in this afternoon's edition of The Times.
Taiwan braced for Chinese blockade as Nancy Pelosi pledges solidarity
Taiwan braced for Chinese blockade as Nancy Pelosi pledges solidarity
The dark blue "Territorial Waters" line looks a lot more than 12 miles off the coast?
"I read that the Administration asked her to cancel the trip ("
I read the same thing but it was "sources in Washington" - so people opposed to supporting Taiwan leaking to the media
There is no way anyone official is going to Taiwan without the President OK-ing it
"I read that the Administration asked her to cancel the trip ("
I read the same thing but it was "sources in Washington" - so people opposed to supporting Taiwan leaking to the media
There is no way anyone official is going to Taiwan without the President OK-ing it
Interesting reading between the lines to kinda see how the planners have put this together. And what they think they can get away with. The 7 o clock area for instance will see fighting if they cross the 12 m line 100% so red herring. then again they all could be, just think back to the similar live firing exercises off Ireland earlier this year. that never happened.
Monkey see monkey do.
Straight outa The Vlad playbook.
Hm
Monkey see monkey do.
Straight outa The Vlad playbook.
Hm
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-a...m_medium=email
Russia and China: Perils of Autocracy
…Biden and Xi spoke last week. The US President was warned that the he was ‘playing with fire’ if the speaker’s visit went ahead. This of course guaranteed that the US would not stop the visit taking place.
As Pelosi landed to an enthusiastic welcome, Taiwan has been subjected to minor economic sanctions, a denial of service cyber attack, ostentatious movement of Chinese military units, overflights by aircraft, and so on. More seriously there are to be live fire drills around the coats of Taiwan and a demonstration of how the Chinese Navy would implement a blockade of the island (in many ways a more likely future option than a full-blown invasion).
In the short-term the problem for Beijing is that none of this has made any difference to the visit. It has shown its displeasure but also its caution. Having made a fuss about the visit but then failing to stop it happening is embarrassing. It can at least claim to put down a marker to discourage further such visits. The next few days risks the sort of incidents that could lead to escalation but the real concern is over the long-term. So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.
It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States. This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise.…..
Russia and China: Perils of Autocracy
…Biden and Xi spoke last week. The US President was warned that the he was ‘playing with fire’ if the speaker’s visit went ahead. This of course guaranteed that the US would not stop the visit taking place.
As Pelosi landed to an enthusiastic welcome, Taiwan has been subjected to minor economic sanctions, a denial of service cyber attack, ostentatious movement of Chinese military units, overflights by aircraft, and so on. More seriously there are to be live fire drills around the coats of Taiwan and a demonstration of how the Chinese Navy would implement a blockade of the island (in many ways a more likely future option than a full-blown invasion).
In the short-term the problem for Beijing is that none of this has made any difference to the visit. It has shown its displeasure but also its caution. Having made a fuss about the visit but then failing to stop it happening is embarrassing. It can at least claim to put down a marker to discourage further such visits. The next few days risks the sort of incidents that could lead to escalation but the real concern is over the long-term. So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.
It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States. This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise.…..
Here's an output from Speaker Pelosi: I have a hard time believing that she would do this politically sensitive thing without coordinating with President Biden.
She's been around long enough to know when to, and when not to, push at the Executive Branch from the Legislative branch.
This isn't a time to do that.
She's been around long enough to know when to, and when not to, push at the Executive Branch from the Legislative branch.
This isn't a time to do that.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).