https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-a...m_medium=email
Russia and China: Perils of Autocracy
…Biden and Xi spoke last week. The US President was warned that the he was ‘playing with fire’ if the speaker’s visit went ahead. This of course guaranteed that the US would not stop the visit taking place.
As Pelosi landed to an enthusiastic welcome, Taiwan has been subjected to minor economic sanctions, a denial of service cyber attack, ostentatious movement of Chinese military units, overflights by aircraft, and so on. More seriously there are to be live fire drills around the coats of Taiwan and a demonstration of how the Chinese Navy would implement a blockade of the island (in many ways a more likely future option than a full-blown invasion).
In the short-term the problem for Beijing is that none of this has made any difference to the visit. It has shown its displeasure but also its caution. Having made a fuss about the visit but then failing to stop it happening is embarrassing. It can at least claim to put down a marker to discourage further such visits. The next few days risks the sort of incidents that could lead to escalation but the real concern is over the long-term. So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.
It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States. This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise.…..